Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 201139
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LO OVER NE MANITOBA DRIFTING EWD INTO FAR NW ONTARIO
TO THE N OF UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH WSW FLOW BTWN THESE
FEATURES IMPACTING UPR MI. WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHRTWV/LO TO THE N IS SHIFTING E QUICKLY THRU ONTARIO IN
THE JET SURGE REGION OF THE SHRTWV. IN FACT THE ADVECTION OF THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB HAS RUSHED AHEAD OF THE
SFC COLD FNT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD CLOSE TO FCST
ISSUANCE...AND MSTR BLO ABOUT H85 FED TO THE NE BY H925-85 SW WINDS
UP TO 45-55 KTS AS SHOWN BY LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. BUT THE DEEPER MSTR
RIBBON APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA AS
THE WSW UPR FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IN THIS AREA
AND APRCH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE WSW FLOW HAS CAUSED SOME
EXPANSION OF COLDER CLD TOPS. BUT DESPITE PWAT AS HI AS AN INCH
/NEARLY 225 PCT OF NORMAL/ GENERALLY ONLY LGT RA IS FALLING FM IRON
MOUNTAIN TO NEWBERRY UNDER THIS MSTR AXIS...WITH ONLY ISOLD HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXTEND BACK INTO NW WI AND THESE HAVE
EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL CWA AHEAD OF THE WEAK SHRTWV. TEMPS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LO TO THE N ARE MUCH HIER THAN YDAY ATTM...
WITH AN 08Z TEMP OF 50 AT IRONWOOD. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SETUP OF
MID LVL DRYING OVER LINGERING LLVL MSTR/MELTING SN...THE STRONGER
LLVL SW FLOW THAT HAS KEPT SFC TEMPS ELEVATED HAS PREVENTED ANY FOG
FORMATION. LOOKING FARTHER TO THE W...A SHRTWV RDG AXIS IS PUSHING
THRU THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER POTENT
SHRTWV MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON DETERMINING
LOCATION OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/DEEPER MSTR AND ASSOCIATED POPS AS
WELL AS WELL ABV NORMAL HI TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE MAY BE
MORE SUNSHINE TODAY.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV TO THE N SHIFTS TO THE E AND ACROSS FAR NW
ONTARIO TDAY...THE UPR LVL FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TOWARD DUE W IN
ADVANCE OF APRCHG SHRTWV RDG PUSHING E FM THE NRN PLAINS. THIS
SLOWLY VEERING UPR FLOW IN CONCERT WITH SOME NVA AHEAD OF THE APRCHG
SHRTWV RDG THAT WL ENHANCE AT LEAST MID LVL DRYING SHOULD TEND TO
PUSH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MSTR RIBBON TO THE S OF UPR MI THIS
AFTN. IN FACT...THE BULK OF THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE ENTIRE
CWA WL BE DRY AFTER 18Z. BUT THE 00Z REGIONAL CNDN MODEL AND THE 12Z
ECWMF INDICATE SOME PCPN WL PERSIST OVER THE SCENTRAL THRU 00Z
MON...WITH SOME WEAK DEEPER LYR QVECTOR CNVGC PERSISTING IN THIS
AREA. GIVEN THE UPR RDG OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MIGHT FORCE
THE DRYING/SHRTWV RDG AND NVA A BIT FARTHER TO THE N...SUSPECT THESE
MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. PLAN TO RETAIN DIMINISHING POPS OVER
THE SCENTRAL AND E THIS MRNG...BUT WL LINGER POPS OVER THE FAR
SCENTRAL THRU THE AFTN. ALTHOUGH STEADY S WINDS HAVE PREVENTED ANY
FOG FORMATION SO FAR...STILL CONCERNED SOME PATCHY FOG COULD FORM
OVER THE W EARLY THIS MRNG AND PERSIST THRU SUNRISE AS WEAKER PRES
GRADIENT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 12Z UNDER MID LVL DRYING. ALTHOUGH THIS
LO CLD COULD SLOW THE DIURNAL TEMP RISE...THE DEEP MIXING OBSVD YDAY
OVER NRN MN PER THE 00Z INL RAOB THAT PUSHED HI TEMPS INTO THE 60S
SUG TEMPS WL RUN WELL ABV NORMAL THIS AFTN WHERE THERE IS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. IN FACT...MIXING TO H75 AS OBSVD YDAY AT INL ON NAM FCST
SDNGS WL YIELD HI TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 60S. BUT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS...THIS DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK BREEZE
FORMATION THAT WL ALLOW FOR COOLING NEAR THE SHORES. MORE CLDS AND A
LIGHT SSW FLOW OFF LK MI WL CAUSE LOWER TEMPS OVER THE SE.

TNGT...EXCEPT FOR THE SCENTRAL...WHERE CLDS/SOME SCT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST CLOSER TO STALLED STNRY FNT/MSTR RIBBON PER THE WETTER
ECWMF/CNDN MODELS...AXIS OF MID LVL DRY AIR UNDER WEAK SHRTWV RDG
SHOULD BRING MOCLR SKIES. WITH MELTING SN UNDER THIS MID LVL DRY AIR
AND LGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RDG...FOG FORMATION SEEMS LIKELY
IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DIURNAL COOLING. SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO
THE PAC NW IS FCST TO MOVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG BY 12Z MON...BUT WITH
ACCOMPANYING DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC HOLDING TO THE NW...EXPECT
ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN TO THE NW. A FEW MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE PCPN TO THE S EXPANDING TO THE N AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
CLOSER...BUT RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SCENTRAL PER THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODEL FCSTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY MORNING AS BETTER
MIXING RETURNS AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY SHOOT UP INTO THE 50S. THE
INITIAL LOW STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF THE MN BORDER THROUGH NE IA AT
12Z WILL SHIFT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...BEFORE
EXITING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF TS OUT OF THE FCST FOR MONDAY...AS THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS S OF THE WI BORDER. EXPECT A QUICK TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE THE RULE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF
THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS WEEK...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FIGURED.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING OVER
THE E. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE NEARLY OVERHEAD AT 06Z WEDNESDAY.
DECREASED WINDS AND LOWERED MORNING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ALTHOUGH TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK IS STILL A BIT UP IN THE AIR...THE MODELS DO AGREE UPON
STRONG 850-925MB WINDS STILL 35-50KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL NOT GET INTO TOO MANY OF THE SPECIFICS OTHER THAN TO
NOTE THAT TEMPS SHOULD COOL ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
FRIDAY EVENING...IF NOT ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

LARGE 1036MB INCH HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
CANADA DURING THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BUILD TO NEAR 1044MB
OVER HUDSON BAY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI WHENEVER THE SFC LOW
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING PATCHY FOG/MVFR VSBY AT SAW EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WL
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MRNG AS DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES
THE FOG. OTRW...PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF
SITES INTO THIS EVNG AS A WEAK HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR WORK INTO UPR
MI. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRY MID LVL AIR OVER MELTING SN UNDER THE
LINGERING SFC RDG ALLOWING FOR SGNFT RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT FOG
TO DVLP AT ALL 3 SITES. THE BEST CHC FOR IFR VSBYS WL BE AT CMX AND
SAW WITH A MORE FVRBL LIGHT ESE LLVL WIND.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

STRONG SSW WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE E HALF
OF THE LAKE WILL DIMINISH TODAY WITH ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES. WITH
THE FLAT PRES GRADIENT PERSISTING THRU MON...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON. A STRONGER NW WIND UP TO 25 KTS WILL
DEVELOP FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PERSIST INTO TUE UNTIL
THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER HI PRES RIDGE BRINGS LIGHTER WINDS UNDER
15-20 KTS INTO WED. BUT THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HI TOWARD THE MID ATANTIC STATES AND A LO PRES MOVING E
FROM THE PLAINS WILL BRING INCREASING SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ON THU.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT STEADY MELTING...SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY EACH EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RETURN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S OR COOLER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS TODAY
WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS PAST THURSDAY ACROSS W UPPER MI HAS
REPLENISHED SOME OF THE WATER CONTENT THAT WAS LOST DURING THE WARMER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE W HIGH TERRAIN /AS OF
FRIDAY MORNING/ HAD 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT...WITH
LOCALIZED 10 INCH AMOUNTS.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME...ANY
RIVER THAT HAS ICE REMAINING ON IT...ESPECIALLY THE ESCANABA RIVER IN
DELTA COUNTY...COULD EXPERIENCE AN ICE JAM WITH THE RISING RIVER
LEVELS THIS WEEK. THOSE LIVING AROUND RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH RIVER LEVELS AND ICE CONDITIONS. ICE JAMS CAN
FORM AND BREAK QUICKLY...RESULTING IN RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING RIVER
LEVELS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
HYDROLOGY...KF




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