Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 172033
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
233 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Warm and dry weather will persist, and increasing breezy
westerly winds this afternoon are allowing fire behavior to
become more active once again. Perhaps of more concern will be
tomorrow (Friday) where warm, dry, and gusty west winds will
increase for the Northern Rockies ahead of a dry cold front that
will approach by late Friday night. Considering all of the active
wildfires in the area, these weather conditions will be
concerning and a Red Flag Warning has been issued.

The cold front will shift southeastward by Saturday, allowing
another dry and breezy day to develop for the afternoon/evening
hours. Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday for
north-central Idaho and northwest/west-central Montana associated
with this air mass. Then, another weak disturbance on Sunday
afternoon is forecast to bring additional gusty westerly winds
through Sunday evening.

By Monday, warm high pressure will begin to build, and monsoonal
moisture will slowly make its way up into central Idaho.
Intermittent cloud cover will be possible Monday afternoon for
Lemhi County, but elsewhere, skies are still forecast to be
favorable for the solar eclipse viewing.

As upper-level flow shifts to southwesterly by Tuesday into the
late week, long-range models are indicating an increase in shower
and thunderstorm activity from monsoonal moisture to track into
the Northern Rockies. If elements come together, lightning would
be unfavorable for future fire start potential...but wetting
rains would certainly be more welcome.

&&

.AVIATION...
Wildfire smoke will continue for KMSO and KBTM, with visibility
reductions likely again this evening and into the morning hours as
active fires continue. Breezy afternoon winds of 15-20kts can be
expected for KGPI, KMSO, and KBTM through approximately 18/0300Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Red Flag Warning from noon Friday to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     Bitterroot...Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Lolo...
     Flathead/Glacier Park...Salish and Kootenai Reservation...
     West Lolo.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday Kootenai.

ID...&&

$$



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