Area Forecast Discussion
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682
FXUS61 KPBZ 181524
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1024 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow will taper off this morning and temperatures will moderate
during the day. The start of the work week will be warm and
wet.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made only minor adjustments to the forecast. The radar is clear
of precipitation echoes, and webcams continue to indicate no
significant activity along the ridges. Expect the clouds to
continue to break up into a cumulus field, with these decreasing
later this afternoon as moisture wanes. Temperatures are mostly
on track around seasonable values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continued the idea of slowing the onset of precipitation late
tonight and Monday morning, as the intrusion of upper level lift
is slowed and weakened by some minor ridging aloft. Rain will
overspread the entire area Monday morning, moving northward
along the surface warm front and rising upper level heights.

By Monday evening, most of the area should be well into the warm
sector and upper level heights will continue to slowly increase
Monday night. This will require me to remove PoPs for much of
the region Monday evening, with the exception of the far north,
which will lie in close enough proximity to the surface
boundary that a passing shower cannot be ruled out.

By late Monday night, the warm sector will have spread across
the entire region and the upper level ridge will have settled
in, allowing for a dry forecast.

Mainly dry forecast will continue through most of Tuesday with
ridging aloft taking hold. A passing shower is possible across
the north Tuesday morning, as a weak shortwave rides over top
of the ridge, but only chance PoPs were indicated for this
feature.

Temperatures will push well above normal both Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While the GFS and ECMWF have wavered on the timing for the cold
front passage over the last few days, there is general consensus
that this will happen late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
This will bring the best chance for rain, but also an end to
the very warm temperatures. The front will linger to the
southeast, keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. Even
after the cold front passes, temperatures should still remain
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR restrictions through most of the morning hours. By midday,
surface flow backing to the south will push drier air in and
scatter out the cloud deck from south to north. VFR is expected
for the latter part of the current TAF period.

OUTLOOK...VFR prevails until Monday morning when precip with a
lifting warm front clips the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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