Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 280441
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1241 AM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances will increase today as warmth and humidity
fuel a crossing disturbance.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes were needed for the midnight update as warm,
moist air has enfiltrated the Upper Ohio Region under broad upper
high pressure.

Another in series of shortwaves across the northern periphery of
the Eastern CONUS ridge should support some afternoon storms, although
coverage is blurry given the various model depictions. For now, have
increased POPs mainly over areas north of I 70 where the ridge and
mid level temperatures show weakness, but have limited numbers to
the "scattered/chance" category given weak flow and questionable
boundary focus. Convection should fade with the night, but will
not eliminate POPS entirely despite the stabilized boundary layer
as shortwave energy extending from Canadian low pressure is progged
to continue carving the aforementioned ridge perimeter.

Near-term temperatures nearly 10 degrees above the averages are
again anticipated with the more humid airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure is forecast to dig over Eastern Canada, with trough
extension over the Northeast U.S. by Monday morning. The
associated surface front may continue to provide focus for
diurnally-enhanced convection over southeastern zones on Monday,
but surface high under northwest flow should suppress precip by
Tuesday. The POP forecast has been adjusted for that eventuality.

Short term temperature will be in decline as an Eastern CONUS
trough develops. These were forecast near, or a couple degrees
under the averages using SuperBlend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Eastern CONUS upper troughing will result in cooler Upper Ohio weather
until the ridge rebuilds next weekend. Temperatures at, or a few
degrees under the averages and minimal POPs were forecast using
Superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Other than local MVFR morning fog, ridging should maintain VFR
conditions through part of today. Shower and thunderstorm chances
should increase this afternoon and evening with the approach of a
cold front. Will include a VCTS mention in the TAFs for now for
the most likely time of occurrence.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are possible Monday mainly S of PIT as the front
completes its passage, and again with another crossing front
Wednesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/07



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