Area Forecast Discussion
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549
FXUS61 KPBZ 031517
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1117 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY
MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON
SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS.

PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE
ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE
MIDWEST THIS MRNG.

CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL
LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES
UNDR THE AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY
NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN
THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH
IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING
PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE
AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST
FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS
GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CEILINGS ARE LIFTING. EXPECT EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THRU TODAY.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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