Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 262004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 PM MDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...SE Idaho under influence of weak southwest flow.
Embedded shortwave moving through panhandle this afternoon helping
to fire weak convection with a few lightning strikes across
northern tier zones. Latest HRRR still in line with previous runs
in extending convection into portions of Upper Snake Plain but
remains the outlier with NAM/GFS/RAP decreasing convection as it
moves off the central mtns into the plain. Convection decreases
after sunset this evening with shortwave axis shifting east across
the region and loss of diurnal mixing. Similar shortwave occurs
on Wednesday but moisture remains limited on Idaho side of
Continental Divide so have only cursory collaborative mention of
thunderstorms along border Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Remainder of work week remains dry and hot across SE Idaho. Models
still in favor of monsoonal surge Saturday through Sunday and have
kept precip chances limited to near climo through the weekend.
Deeper trough drops into PacNW region Monday and Tuesday. Moisture
remains in place for at least isolated thunderstorms each
afternoon, but depending on speed and location of trough, could be
focused mainly in eastern half of SE Idaho. DMH


.AVIATION...A wave/trough is moving through this afternoon bringing
breezy winds as well as isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the
Eastern Central Mountains and Island park region. Do not expect any
thunderstorms at TAF sites...just an slight increase in winds in the
afternoon continuing into the early evening. Wyatt


.FIRE WEATHER...A wave/trough is moving through this afternoon
bringing breezy winds as well as isolated to scattered thunderstorms
for the Eastern Central Mountains and Island Park region.  All of
this after a prolonged dry period. Thus...a Red Flag warning has
been continued for fire zones 475 and 476 across the Central
mountains and zone 411 encompassing mainly the Centennial Mountains
extending from Monida pass eastward through Island Park.

A weak ridge builds in overnight into Wednesday as the wave/trough
exits. Another wave, though weaker, moves over Southwest Montana
clipping our Island Park region bringing isolated showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon into the early evening. Expect
breezy winds again with gusts near 20 mph.

Expect dry...mostly Westerly...flow Thursday and Friday. Winds will
become breezy again particularly Friday but look to remain just
below Red Flag criteria. Saturday look for Southwest flow ahead of a
moderate to strong Pacific trough. Winds will be near red flag
criteria particularly in the Central Mountains on Saturday. In
Southwest flow...models are still continuing to show monsoon
moisture make it into our area bringing isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms particularly for our Southern areas late
Saturday afternoon through the evening. Models are showing moderate
to strong winds as well on Sunday as the trough moves over Northern
Idaho. Though models still continue to differ...heightened fire
activity is anticipated this weekend and continuing into the early
part of next week. We will work out the details as that time frame
draws near. Wyatt


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ411-475-476.


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