Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290912
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
312 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL MORE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WE HAVE A WELL DEFINED LOW THIS
MORNING SITTING RIGHT OVER LOST TRAIL PASS AND SOUTHERN RAVALLI
COUNTY IN MONTANA. WE HAVE THE LOW OVER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
ALONG WITH A 3RD STORM PUSHING INTO THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING.
THE FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE LOW OVER
MONTANA WEAKENS AS THE STORM MOVING INTO OREGON DROPS INTO
NEVADA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT STORM FOR THIS WEEKEND.
WE SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS
RISING TO 7500-8000FT THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY...WHAT`S LEFT OF THE MONTANA STORM IS ENOUGH
TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DESPITE THE FIRST
STORM MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE STREAMS BACK WEST AROUND
IT AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. A THIRD AREA OF SHOWERS WILL FORM WITH A CONVERGENCE
EVENT ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY. AS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH
STRENGTHENS...WINDS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY WHERE WE HAVE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. IT`S LIKELY WE`LL NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. SUNDAY LOOKS MUCH DRIER BUT
STILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE DRIEST WITH THE GFS A
LITTLE WETTER. DO EXPECT OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT MID AND UPPER
ELEVATIONS BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD HAVE ANY REAL IMPACTS. JUST
ENOUGH TO SERVE AS A REMINDER IT STILL SNOWS IN SPRING AROUND
HERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT
A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING CLOSED LOW OVER GREAT BASIN THROUGH MONDAY
WHILE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NORTHERN/CANADIAN
ROCKIES. DRY AND WARMING TREND IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK. HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN RIDGE AND SHIFTS AXIS EAST
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE PRECIP PUSH INTO IDAHO BY LATE
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF DO FINALLY
LOSE AGREEMENT BY THIS POINT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND POSITION OF
LOW CUTTING OFF IN BASE OF TROUGH. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES. WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION COULD LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING KSUN. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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