Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 011123
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
523 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

...SNOW FOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT TIMES...ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST AREAS...

UPPER TROF IS ENTERING THE WEST COAST WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY
GLANCING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. HAVE SEEN LIGHTNING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WITH SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AROUND 10KFT...BUT PROBABLY DROP
DOWN TO 9 TO 9.5 KFT AT TIMES UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS BASED
ON MESONET OBSERVATIONS. WOLF CREEK PASS SENSOR HAS ALREADY PICKED
UP CLOSE TO .20 OF LIQUID...AND HUNCH IS A QUICK 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING.  HIGH
RES SHORT RANGE MODELS KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
THIS MORNING THROUGH 15Z...BEFORE QUICKLY TAILING DOWN BY 18Z AS THE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER SLOT ACROSS NV/WRN UT SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HIGH RES MODELS ALSO SPREAD A WAVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND INTO THE SANGRES THIS MORNING.  AREA
RADARS HAVE STARTED TO PICK UP SOME ECHOES...SO MODELS APPEAR TO
HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA.  HAVE INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.  SHOWERS DIMINISH QUICKLY IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW ONCE THEY
CROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...SO WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DRY.

MEANWHILE...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC LEE TROF DEEPENS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...VALLEYS...SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.  IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS TO IMPACT
KCOS AND KPUB ACCORDING TO HIGH RES MODELS...BUT THINK IT SHOULD
KICK IN BY 2-3 PM. GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER MTS TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 -40 MPH ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TODAY.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AFTER 00Z.  THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH HAVE LIMITED
THIS THROUGH 03Z FOR NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WINDS
REALLY CRANK UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ASSOC UPPER JET TRANSLATES INTO THE 4
CORNERS REGION.  HIGHER PEAKS COULD SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME OF THESE GUSTS COULD SPILL DOWN
THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS TOWARDS 09Z. HOWEVER WE SEEM
TO LACK MUCH OF A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER...THEN GAIN TOO MUCH
FORWARD SHEAR BY 12Z. CROSS SECTIONS OFF THE LOCAL WRF SUGGEST THAT
HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD STAY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...AND EVEN TO THE WEST OF THE KAFF...PROBABLY
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9-10KFT.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS...BUT SCENARIO LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.  SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
MAY PICK UP ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MILD DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

LONGER TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE AMOUNT OF IMPACT THAT SYSTEM HAS
ON FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES AND TEMPERATURES.

RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND REAL-TIME DATA SUGGEST THAT UPPER
DISTURBANCE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AT 12Z SUNDAY
MOVES INTO AND THEN ACROSS COLORADO FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WINTER WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AS THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW INTERACTS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE LONGER TERM WILL BE
NOTED FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

ALSO...A COLD NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATER MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE TO SET THE STAGE TO
PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY AS
WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE LIGHTER TO TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
PLAINS.

ANOTHER METEOROLOGICAL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HARD FREEZE(FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE NOT REALIZED A HARD FREEZE YET) BY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY ENOUGH.

THEN AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TUESDAY...
ANTICIPATE THAT A RETURN TO BASICALLY DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
WILL BE NOTED FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND
DGEX SOLUTIONS DEVELOP NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. RECENT ECMWF IS AN OUTLIER TO THE GFS/DGEX SOLUTIONS AND
WANTS TO DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO
BY NEXT FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL TAYLOR FORECAST TO MORE CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE RECENT GFS AND DGEX SOLUTIONS.

FINALLY...WARMEST CONDITIONS DURING THE LONGER TERM ARE
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHILE COOLEST CONDITIONS ARE PROJECTED FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 517 AM MDT SAT NOV 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY...THOUGH SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES IN SN/+SN...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS AREA WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS AT KALS...AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS AT KCOS AND KPUB BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  MTN TOP WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH PEAK LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 50-60 KTS LATE TONIGHT.
LOCAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SE MTS...THOUGH
LOOKS LIKE THIS THREAT WILL STAY TO THE WEST OF THE KCOS TERMINAL.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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