Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 020935 CCA
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.  IT APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS
OOMPH THOUGH AS WINDS BEHIND IT ARE NOT MUCH MORE THAN 8 KTS...
COMPARED TO SHORTLY AFTER 06Z WHEN A FEW MESONET SITES WERE SEEING
GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KTS. NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SE
PLAINS MAY SEE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THIS MORNING
THOUGH DON`T THINK IT WILL MUCH MORE THAN 5-10 KTS AT BEST.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER...AND MAY FILL IN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME WITH WEAK
OVERRUNNING. MODELS DISSIPATE THE STRATUS FOR MOST AREAS BY
15Z...THOUGH IT COULD HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE.

FOR TODAY...FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPS TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  WEAK
VORT MAX ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE CO/WY
BORDER...BUT HARD PRESSED TO SEE MUCH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.  REGARDLESS...SEVERAL MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED
SHOWERS/-TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN MTS...SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  CONVECTION QUICKLY DISSIPATES
TOWARDS SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  DEW POINTS LOOK PRETTY
LOW...AND WV SHOWS DRY AIR OVER THE REGION...SO THINK ANY STORMS
WILL BE PRETTY ISOLATED AND HIGH BASED.  FOLLOWED THE MAJORITY OF
THE HIGH RES MODELS WITH MOSTLY SILENT POPS...EXCEPT ACROSS THE LA
GARITAS...NORTHERN SANGRES...AND WETS FOR A BRIEF TIME DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE
DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

ACROSS THE PLAINS...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO CAPPED FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...BUT DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...ESPECIALLY TO THE
EAST OF KLHX AS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ADVECTS GULF MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD.  CAPES ARE QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2000 J/KG...BUT THINK WE
WILL LACK A TRIGGER TODAY SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SILENT CATEGORY.
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SHOT WITH SFC HEATING AND SOME CONVERGENCE SETTING UP ALONG SFC TROF
AXIS OVER THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING.  TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.  WILL LIKELY SEE STRATUS
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...BUT AS SFC
LOW KICKS EASTWARD...THINK THIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AFTER 06Z AS LOW LEVEL JET
SETS UP.  MAJORITY OF MODELS KEEP IT DRY OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
MAINTAIN SOME SILENT POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES FOR NOW.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...HOT WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER AND WETTER...

AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED...WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE HOT FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPS THAT ARE NORMALLY IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL BE NEAR OR AT 100F BY MID
AFTERNOON. WITH 700 MB TEMPS AOA 18C AND A GOOD LEE TROUGH...THESE
MAX TEMP VALUES LOOK REALISTIC. GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING ONE OR TWO
HIGH BASED TSRA OVER FAR SE CO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME INCREASING MID
LVL MOISTURE...AND IF THESE STORMS FORM THEY COULD PRODUCE QUITE
GUSTY WINDS.

THURSDAY A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING DOWN TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES ALTHOUGH WE STILL
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES. UPSLOPE MOISTURE
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LVL MOISTURE BEING
ADVECTED UP FROM THE SW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THU EVENING...A WEAK MCS COULD
BE ROLLING ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. THIS WEAK MCS IS SHOWN BY ALL 3
MODELS.

FRIDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AS
UPSLOPE CONTINUES AT LLVLS AND MID LVL MONSOON MOISTURE ADVECTS UP
FROM THE SW. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
ALONG THE E FACE OF THE S MTNS AND RATON MESA REGION...AND POPS ARE
DRAWN UP HIGHEST IN THESE REGIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING AOA 80F ACROSS THE
PLAINS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BURN SCARS ON
THIS DAY.

WEEKEND...LOOKS COOL AND WET ACROSS THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE E FACINGS LOPES/ADJ PLAINS OF S MTNS AND
RATON MESA REGION FOR SAT...WHILE SUNDAY THE INTERIOR MTNS MAY HAVE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP AS A GOOD CHUNK OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FCST TO MOVE UP FROM THE SW. MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE THESE DAYS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING STARTING AT THE END OF THIS
WEEK...ONE THING THAT ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS IS FLOW WILL BE RATHER
BRISK ALOFT SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD
CLIP. LIKEWISE...WE WILL SEE SOME SHEAR BY LATE WEEK LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING LATE SEASON CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CAPE MAY BE AN ISSUE DUE TO
THE COOLER TEMPS.

OVERALL...EXPECT COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY LATE THU LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 327 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
15Z...FLIRTING WITH THE KCOS TERMINAL THIS MORNING.  IT COULD END UP
BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN EL
PASO AND EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES AND POINTS EASTWARD.  ALREADY HAVE
BKN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPUB AS OF 09Z...AND MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KCOS AS WELL.  MAJORITY OF STRATUS SHOULD ERODE BY
15Z ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND NOT LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  BREEZY SOUTH TO SE WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FOR ALL 3 TAF SITES WITH GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER MTS.  STRATUS MAY RETURN FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z...THOUGH APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO STAY EAST
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT



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