Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 280537
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 PM MDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Currently...Upper high pressure continues over the Great Basin,
keeping light N-NW flow aloft over Colorado. WV satellite imagery
this morning indicated drier air moving into the state, and storm
activity has been very light through the day. As of 3 pm, a couple
of storms are trying to percolate across the far eastern plains
where there is some favorable CAPE and shear to tap into, but so
far convection has struggled.

Tonight and Tomorrow...The upper high will remain in place over the
next 24 hrs, so another hot day with recycled moisture for the
higher terrain is on tap. However, two features could help motivate
some storm activity for the eastern plains and will need to be
monitored. First, a weak shortwave will drop south across the
Central US Plains this eve, and models have at times over the past
few days hinted that there might be some lingering convection over
the far eastern plains tonight. Current model run are leaning
towards this feature being a bit too far east, but decided to keep
isolated to scattered pops for the plains from roughly east of a
line from Crowley County to eastern Las Animas County. This should
taper off after midnight. Second feature will be a stronger
shortwave crossing the northern Rockies tomorrow morning, pushing a
cool front down towards the Palmer DVD around midday. This will be
too late for much of a cooling effect, but could spark a bit more
storm activity for the plains by mid to late aftn. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

.Thursday night and Friday...Convective complex will move
southward into western Kansas Thursday evening with most of the
precipitation staying east of the region. Suspect that outflow
from this system could increase the amount of moisture advected
into southeast Colorado. On Friday, a disturbance will move
southeast into the northern high plains. CWA will be on the
southern edge of this system, and it could help develop afternoon
and evening thunderstorms, mainly from the eastern mountains and
eastward. Specifics will depend on how much moisture advects
westward and strength of the trough, but there could be round of
more organized storms developing near the mountains during the
late afternoon and moving eastward during the evening. Current
grids only have isolated to scattered PoPs Friday afternoon and
evening which will suffice given the uncertainty.

.Saturday through Wednesday...Pattern changes as a series of
strong troughs move across the Northern Rockies. These troughs
will flatten the ridge turning the flow more westerly to
southwesterly aloft. Lee trough will develop over the eastern
plains which will keep the more moist lower level air to the east
of Colorado. EC and GFS try to bring more middle and upper level
moisture into Colorado in the monsoon plume. Currently, satellite
images show increased moisture across northern Mexico. EC and GFS
hint a at couple of disturbances moving westward across northern
Mexico, which will tend to increase convection of the Sierra
Madre. This moisture may be advected into Colorado increasing the
chances for convection, mainly over the mountains. Temperatures
continue warm with warm air aloft over the region with amount of
convection mostly determining daytime maximums. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Wed Jul 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON THURSDAY...GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
BEHIND IT AS IT PASSES THROUGH KCOS AROUND 21Z...AND KPUB AROUND
22Z. TIMING OF THE FRONT COULD SHIFT BY AN HOUR OR SO AS FORECAST
MODELS REFINE THESE DETAILS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AFTER 02Z-03Z...AND IF ONE OF THESE IMPACTS THE KCOS
OR KPUB TERMINALS...THEN SOME GS/GR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS. COULD SEE SOME VFR/MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP
TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

KALS WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW.  -KT

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT



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