Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1023 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

The main concern for today is the potential for critical fire
weather conditions.

Westerly flow aloft will be found over the area today and tonight.
Gusty winds are being reported over and near the mountains this
morning, with gusts of 50-60 mph along portions of the Rampart Range
and the Air Force Academy.  Not expecting such strong gusts along
the rampart range after midmorning, but it will still be windy
through the day.  Temps today will be well above average, with highs
in the 70s acrs the southeast plains and in the 50s to lower 60s in
the high valley areas.  Portions of the southeast plains will see
record of near record highs.  The record high for Colo Spgs today is
70 set in 1927, while the record for Pueblo is 75 set in 1977 and
1982.  Dry conditions today will lead to min RH values of less than
15 percent acrs most, if not all of the southeast plains.  When the
RH values are at their lowest this afternoon, gusty winds reaching
Red Flag criteria are expected over Fremont, El Paso, portions of
Pueblo and Huerfano counties.  The wind may not meet criteria over
western Las Animas county, and the combination of strong enough
winds and low enough humidity may be marginal in Teller county.
However, in these marginal areas it will be close enough to leave
the Red Flag Warning in effect.

A little moisture in the flow will lead to some showers along the
Continental Divide today, increasing a bit tonight, with just some
light snow accumulation possible.  Tonight there will once again be
gusty winds over the mtns and the lower east slopes, with some gusts
of 50-60 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Wednesday...Brisk west to southwest flow aloft will continue across
the region on Wed, producing isolated to low-end scattered pops for
the higher terrain, and gusty west winds for the adjacent plains.
These westerly downslope winds, gusting to 25 to 35 mph in the aftn,
will help push max temps into the mid 70s for the plains as well as
force critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in
place for the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains Wed aftn, and it
will likely get upgraded later today. There will be the potential
for 1 to 2 inches of new snow across the central mts by Wed night.

Thursday and Friday...An upper low pressure system rolls across the
Pacific NW and northern Rockies on Thu, bringing more cloud cover
and potential showers for the plains later Thu. A cold front drops
south across the eastern plains Thu eve as the upper low moves into
NE. High temps on Thu are expected to be in the 40s for the high
valleys, and 50s to lower 60s for the plains. On Fri, max temps cool
even more with readings in the 30s and 40s for all areas. The best
shot for Pcpn across the plains will come Thu aftn and eve with the
frontal passage, otherwise pcpn will be mainly restricted to the
higher terrain with 4 to 8 inches of new snow possible for the
higher elevations of Lake and Chaffee Counties through Fri morning.

Saturday through Monday...Flow aloft becomes more westerly on Sat as
the one system exits the area, then becomes southwesterly for Sun
and Mon as the next Pacific storm system digs south across CA and
NV. This will bring even more new snow to the ContDvd, while keeping
the plains essentially dry. Look for temps in the 40s and 50s
through Sun, then warming into the lower to mid 60s for the plains
by Mon. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1016 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites; kpub, kals and kcos.

Main concern during the next 24 hours will be gusty west winds at
KCOS and KPUB. Winds will remain gusty in the short term but
should decrease as all guidance shows winds decreasing as the
afternoon progresses. However, winds are expected to remain breezy
into tonight, with another round of gusty winds late tonight at
the two taf sites. Winds will remain gusty into tomorrow.


Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for COZ222-226>233.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ221-222-



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