Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 132126
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

CURRENTLY...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO WARMER AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND CONVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS ENHANCED DRYING ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO.  MCV IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO
KANSAS...AND NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MCV
CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN COLORADO FROM
WYOMING.

.TONIGHT...HRRR AND 4KM WRF NMM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A BAND OF
CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...I25 CORRIDOR
AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING.  ARW ALSO HINTS AT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS
THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY THE
TRAILING EDGE OF THE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO.  IN THE GRIDS...INCREASED POPS FOR THE EVENING.
MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 400 TO 800 J/KG OF CAPE IN THE EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL STILL BE AN INCH OR GREATER ON THE PLAINS
AND I25 CORRIDOR...AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN.  STORM MOTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
500MB AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.MONDAY...THE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS.   WITH INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT...CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCREASE.  MAIN QUESTION
IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.  A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY...AND THIS
BOUNDARY MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.  CONVECTION MAY MOSTLY
FIRE JUST AHEAD OR BEHIND THE FRONT. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SEE TEXT
FOR EASTERN COLORADO...WHICH CURRENTLY SUMMARIZES THE SEVERE THREAT
WELL.  WHILE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING MAY DECREASE...WILLS TILL
HAVE TO WATCH BURN SCARS CLOSELY. --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND A LARGE UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE POISED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP COLORADO UNDER A BRISK NW FLOW ALOFT...WHILE SFC HIGH PRES
TO THE E AND NE OF THE STATE WILL KEEP LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE. A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AFFECT
THE CWA TUE AND WED...PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH WED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY...WITH THE COOLEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD EXPECTED TO BE WED. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ENOUGH FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TUE AND
WED...WILL MOST LIKELY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SW FLATTENS...AND A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS. THURSDAY MAY STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS THE COOLER AIR
SLOWLY GETS PUSHED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WARMER TEMPS WILL
BE IN FULL FORCE STARTING FRI. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
DIURNAL AND TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL COTNINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
TONIGHT...A WEAK DISTRUBANCE MOVING SOUHTWARD FROM WYOMING COULD
HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION WELL INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KCOS
AND KPUB.  OVERNIGHT..ANTICIPATE VFR AT ALL SITES.  ON
MONDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD START BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT
WMAY ACT AS A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ072>089-093-
094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW



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