Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 281718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1118 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A shortwave trof will move into the Great Basin today, and will then
move northeastward into WY and northern CO tonight.  Ahead of this
system there will continue to be a lot of high clouds over southeast
and south central CO, which are expected to decrease late tonight.
Forecast models indicate the possibility of some showers moving into
the Continental Dvd and Pikes Peak/Teller county area this afternoon
and evening, but nothing significant.  Even with the high cloud
cover today, temps are expected to be quite warm again, with record
highs being forecast at Colo Spgs and Pueblo.  Highs are expected to
be in the 80s acrs the southeast plains and in the upper 60s to mid
70s in the high valleys. Records for today are 75 for Alamosa, 77
for Colo Spgs and 85 for Pueblo.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

...Increasing Fire Weather concerns early Next Week...

Saturday-Sunday...Moderate westerly flow aloft across the region on
Saturday moderates and becomes more southwest through the day
Sunday, as one embedded short wave translates across the Rockies
with short wave ridging building into the region on Sunday. Breezy
westerly winds across the area early Saturday, especially over and
near the higher terrain, with weak associated cold front moving
across the eastern plains through the afternoon allowing for winds
to become generally light upslope later Saturday afternoon and
evening. Passing wave will keep chances of light precipitation
across the Contdvd on Saturday, with temperatures expected to
slightly cooler than Friday, though still well above seasonal
levels. South to southeast return flow across the plains on Sunday
will keep temperatures slightly cooler than Saturday, though again
will still be above seasonal levels. Models differ on amount of
embedded moisture across the area on Sunday, and cant rule out an
isolated shower along and west of the ContDvd again on Sunday.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Fire weather concerns increase through this
period, as westerly flow aloft increases once again with another
embedded short wave lifting out across the Great Basin and Rockies.
Breezy to windy westerly flow aloft, especially over and near the
higher terrain, to lead to poor to moderate RH recovery across the
lee slopes with the potential for Red Flag conditions across
portions of the Eastern mountains, I-25 corridor and plains on
Monday. With some moisture embedded within the flow, again can not
rule out the possibility of a few showers across the higher terrain,
though best lift and moisture remains north of the area. Downslope
flow to help keep min temps up Sunday night and boost highs to well
above seasonal levels on Monday.  Passing system sends another weak
front across the area Monday night, with dry weather still on tap
for Halloween Eve and only slightly cooler temperatures in the
offing for Tuesday.

Wednesday-Thursday...Lower confidence in forecast for the middle and
end of next week, as models continue to differ on details of a
developing trough across the West Coast and its subsequent movement.
Latest operational runs of the GFS and EC keep the system
progressive and lift it across the northern Rockies, though do
support increasing subtropical moisture within the south to southwest
flow aloft to support showers and even a few thunderstorms. GFS
ensemble data and the operational Canadian runs support the system
closing off across the Desert southwest, though again spreading
moisture northward across the area supporting some showers.  At any
rate, should see cooler temperatures with chance and slight chance
pops returning to the area into the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

A weak upper level disturbance currently over Nevada will work
east across the flight area late today through early Saturday.
This disturbance is relatively dry but it does have enough
moisture for a few spotty rain or snow showers along the
Continental Divide starting around 21Z today and continuing
through 18Z Saturday. Most locations across the flight area will
remain VFR through the forecast period. However, there could be
some spotty MVFR, IFR or LIFR conditions associated with the
activity along the Divide 21Z-18Z. For the KCOS, KPUB and KALS
TAF sites, VFR expected.




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