Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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837
FXUS65 KPUB 290525
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1125 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Per recent high res models have adjusted pops to continue a few
hours longer over far northern sections as well as to allow the
Red Flag Warning to expire at 8 PM this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Currently...An upper low was slowly tracking east across Canada,
brushing across northern ID and MT. This was producing westerly flow
aloft across Colorado, with warm temps and gusty aftn winds for much
of the area. Save for a few mid-level clouds over northern Co and
the higher terrain, much of the forecast area remained sunny with a
slight smoky haze which pushed temps into the 80s to lower 90s.

Tonight and tomorrow...Ongoing critical fire weather conditions are
expected to ease by 8 pm as RH levels increase and winds begin to
die down. Overnight min temps should remain mild with 40s for the
high valleys and 50s for the plains. The same scenario will likely
occur tomorrow as the upper low continues east across northern MT.
Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for those areas where
dry and breezy conditions coincide with fuels deemed receptive to
carry fire...which at this time means the sw mts...the San Luis
Valley and Fremont County. For the east, a cold front is forecast to
drop south across the Palmer Divide later in the aftn, producing
gusty northeast winds at the surface and ushering in cooler air
overnight. However, prior to cold front passage, look for gusty west
to southwest winds which will boost temps into the lower 90s. In
addition, there may be a few storms along the front as it drives
south late tomorrow aftn and eve, and SPC has outlined a marginal
risk for severe storms for those areas from Crowley, Otero and
Eastern Las Animas Counties eastward into KS. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Primary longer term meteorological concerns are temperatures,
pops, thunderstorm intensity, winds and elevated fire weather
concerns at times.

Overall, near to above seasonal temperatures in combination with
generally low-grade pops(although isolated strong to possibly
severe storms will be possible) and elevated fire weather
concerns at times are anticipated over the forecast district
during the longer term as recent computer simulations, forecast
model soundings and PV analysis indicate that the northwesterly
upper flow from Thursday night into the weekend gives way to an
upper ridging pattern from later in the weekend into next
Wednesday.

Meanwhile, at the surface, north-northeasterly surface surge
moving across eastern sections Thursday night gives way to
varying degrees of southeastern Colorado surface lee-side
troughing from this weekend into next Wednesday.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential of more
widespread precipitation during the long term should be
experienced from Friday into Friday evening(with some strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms possible), although isolated
shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated each day of the
longer term.

Critical fire weather potential is also expected from Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening over many western locations(with
a red flag warning currently in place). In addition, although
gradient winds are projected to be on a decreasing trend,
localized elevated fire weather concerns are also anticipated
over primarily western locations from Friday into Monday. As
always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and issue additional fire
weather highlights if/as needed.

Finally, coolest maximum temperatures during the longer term
should be noted Friday(especially eastern sections in the wake of
the north-northeasterly surface surge). Warmest temperatures
during the longer term are anticipated from Sunday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

At KALS...VFR the next 24 hrs with gusty SW winds developing
midday Thu and continuing until around sunset.

At KCOS...winds overnight will gradually become more nly as
convective outflow dissipates 06z-08z. On Thu, brief period of SE
winds in the morning before frontal boundary drops south through
the site during the afternoon, turning winds more toward the E-NE
after 21z. Moisture will push back westward behind the front,
bringing a chance of tsra to the terminal from 23z into the
evening.

At KPUB...convective outflow has turned winds to the NE late this
evening, though expect outflow to dissipate and winds to become
light after 18z. On Thu, E-SE winds in the morning will become
E-NE in the afternoon as a frontal boundary pushes south across
the plains. Low chance of a tsra behind the front in the evening
after 00z, but too low to include in the taf at this point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ222>224.

&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN



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