Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
000
FXUS65 KREV 260029 CCA
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Reno NV
257 PM PDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Melting high elevation Sierra snowpack will continue to lead to minor
flooding near some creeks, streams and rivers through the Memorial
Day weekend and into most of next week. Temperatures will remain
near average through Friday, with a warming trend to well above
average temperatures by early next week. A few showers and thunderstorms
will be possible near the Sierra by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Low pressure slowly moving over the eastern Great Basin and Rockies
into Saturday will bring near to slightly above (Saturday) average
temperatures with breezy conditions tonight and again Friday afternoon.
Winds will settle down for Saturday as the upper trough weakens over
eastern California and western Nevada. On Monday, high pressure begins
to strengthen overhead for warming temperatures with continued light
winds.

As far as showers and thunderstorms, the GFS simulations continue to
pop up convective precipitation late in the day Friday and Saturday.
This is often suspicious as that model tends to overdo convective
development over the higher terrain of the Sierra. The NAM does
not support anything Friday and only extremely isolated development
Saturday afternoon near and west of the Mono County crest. Also,
SREF thunderstorm probabilities have little or no chance along the
crest on Friday and only low end chances Saturday. With all this
in mind, have kept showers and thunderstorms out of the forecast
through Sunday morning.

Sunday afternoon and evening, the NAM simulation shows a better RH
response (indicative of deeper convection) for isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms near the crest south of Highway 50...and that
day will feature better heating as the upper ridge begins to build
overhead. With the heating, the NAM solution, and continued low end
chances per SREF thunderstorm progs, slight chances for thunder were
maintained for Sunday near the crest. Snyder

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...

By Monday the ridge axis will begin to shift east into the Great
Basin and break down as low pressure once again strengthens in the
eastern Pacific. Temperatures will remain around 10-14 degrees above
average for the first part of the week and begin to moderate during
the second half of the week as the high pressure breaks down.

There remains the possibility of a few thunderstorms as the ridge
begins to break down; however, models have been over-producing
convective potential the last few weeks. Currently the best chance
looks to be Monday when we could see some typical afternoon
thunderstorms building over the Sierra.

By Wednesday a weak trough is expected to brush by the Oregon border
with some chances of light precipitation in far northern California
and Nevada possible. Zonal flow (neither trough nor ridge) for the
end of the week should bring temperatures back to near normal for
the start June. -Zach

&&

.AVIATION...

Lighter winds to move into western Nevada and northeast CA later tonight
through Saturday as an upper low slowly moves from eastern OR/western
ID into the Rockies. VFR conditions are expected through Sunday morning...
with the possible exception of patchy fog in the Martis Valley Saturday
morning. Snyder

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.