Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 290222
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1022 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over or near the
region for the next several days. Disturbances moving along this
boundary will allow for periodic rounds of showers and storms. Hot
and humid conditions will continue into at least early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday...

Extended WW419 until midnight for areas along and just east of
Blue Ridge. Strong to occasionally severe storms continue vcnty of
Roanoke-Lynchburg-Rocky Mount areas. CAPE remains high (MLCAPE of
2000 j/kg) over the foothills and piedmont, so as the outflow
from these storms interacts with this airmass, strong cores still
possible. That said, loss of daytime heating should result in
decreasing intensity, but still concerned that overall activity
will persist well into the overnight with possible training of
lingering thunderstorm cells inof tail end of vorticity and
lingering dynamics aloft. Since this training does not appear
that it will impact the previous Flash Flood Watch area (WV), the
watch has been dropped. If training of cells does develop, it may
be closer to a RIC-LYH-MTV line where existing outflow boundary
becomes stuck between stronger westerlies to the north and the
upper level ridge over the southeast U.S.

On Friday, much of the region will see a break in the
precipitation activity through the morning hours. We cannot rule
out isolated showers or storms across the west. By the afternoon,
our next approaching disturbance, along with daytime heating, will
help prompt additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Coverage is not expected to be as great as that anticipated this
evening. The best coverage will be in the west.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 60s to the upper
60s across the mountains and around 70 to the lower 70s across the
Piedmont. Highs tomorrow are forecast to be just slightly lower than
those realized today. Readings around 80 to the mid 80s are forecast
for the mountains with upper 80s to lower 90s across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Frontal boundary will stay just north of us Friday night with spoke
of upper energy moving east Friday evening. Timing of impulses is
problematic but seems next best wave works toward the PA/OH border
Saturday afternoon which may slowly nudge front southward. Appears
best threat of showers and storms will be focused from far Southwest
Virginia into SE WV and north of Highway 460 across Roanoke and
Lynchburg north Saturday afternoon with widely scattered further
south. Nonetheless kept pops no higher than 50.

Temperatures stay elevated at night thanks to high pwats with lows
from the mid to upper 60s west to lower 70s east. Saturday should be
at or just above typical late July values of lower to mid 80s west
to around 90 east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1150 AM EDT Thursday...

Belt of westerlies will be laying across the area Sunday night into
Monday, with front situated across the mid-Atlantic. Afterward the
upper flow takes on a more NW to SE orientation across our area as
ridge builds over the Central Plains. The front weakens but
convergence along it to remain through midweek. In addition, the
upper pattern favors potential ridge runners, where convective
clusters form over the upper midwest and shift southeast over our
area.

Overall, will keep threat of showers and storms in the forecast all
periods but looks like Sunday-Monday have the better chance for
measurable rainfall.

May see slight nudge downward in temps early but overall humidity
levels should stay the same, so no appreciable dry air expected
thru Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail across most of the area. Scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms are across the region. One cluster is
associated with a shortwave trough moving through northern
Virginia. Others were entering the region in association with a
shortwave trough moving northeast through Tennessee. This feature
will reach the western parts of the area towards midnight.

Overnight, look for cloud cover to increase across the area with
most locations in the MVFR range with areas of IFR in across the
mountains. Showers and storms will continue, especially in
western and northern parts of the area. Visibilities will be a mix
of MVFR and low end VFR with pockets of IFR under the heavier
cells.

Much of the activity will wane by sunrise Friday, with lingering
showers in the west. MVFR ceiling and visibilities will last a few
hours after sunrise. By Friday afternoon, all areas are expected
to have VFR ceilings. Scattered showers and storms will be
possible across mainly western portions of the area.

Extended aviation discussion...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

The area will remain in a relatively active period for showers and
storms through Tuesday thanks to a persistent, nearly stationary
frontal boundary across or near our region. Outside of the
precipitation and during the daylight hours, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. Within the heavier showers and storms, and
during the overnight hours sub-VFR conditions are more likely.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record warm minimum temperatures for July 28

Bluefield WV.....69 in 2010
Danville VA......76 in 1997
Lynchburg VA.....77 in 1930
Roanoke VA.......80 in 1930
Blacksburg VA....68 in 1987

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...PM



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