Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 221907

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
307 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

High pressure over the eastern United States will continue to
bring warm and dry weather to the Appalachians and central mid
Atlantic region through the weekend and into the first part of
next week.


As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of
high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems
over the Atlantic remain too far offshore to impact our weather.
Combination of diurnal instability, orographic effects, and some
weak short wave energy will keep a chance/slight chance for
showers/storms in the forecast from the southern Blue Ridge and
portions of the NRV south into the mountains of NC. Any
precipitation will fade quickly by early this evening with dry
conditions for the overnight period. Expect another round of
patchy fog/stratus development primarily west of the Blue
Ridge. Any fog/low clouds will burn off early Saturday, followed
by pleasant weather for the start of the weekend.

Temperatures will be similar to previous days. Expect lows
tonight in the lower 60s east of the Blue Ridge with mid
50s/around 60 to the west and some cooler readings in the
valleys. Highs Saturday will be in the mid/upper 80s east to
lower 80s west.


As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

A Rather quiet weather pattern through this period, with high
pressure firmly in place near the mason dixon line, and continuing
to build South along the central appalachians. Hurricane Maria is
expected to drift North off of the southeast US coast, but likely
remain far enough out to sea to limit impacts in our area through
Monday. This setup would allow mostly sunny and dry conditions to
remain in place. High Temperatures should remain steadily 5 to 10
degrees above normal during the period, topping out in the mid to
upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge, with upper 70s and low 80s
prevalent across the higher elevations. Low temperatures would fall
into the 50s and 60s, with patchy fog possible each morning,
especially in the mountain valleys.


As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

High pressure will begin to progress north and east into the New
England states by Tuesday, as Maria begins to slow and wobble off of
the Mid Atlantic Seaboard. This will allow surface winds to shift to
out of the East/Northeast, allowing low level atlantic moisture to
build across the area Wednesday and Thursday. With subsidence still
in place, don`t expect much in the way of shower activity, but cloud
cover as a whole should increase, especially for those East of the
Blue Ridge. A Persistence forecast trend in temperatures
will continue through this time period.

A cold front approaches from the north and west on Thursday,
bringing the possibility of isolated to scattered showers across the
area. Timing of the front, at least in the eyes of the GFS, doesn`t
look favorable for significant shower coverage or intensity, but it
should be enough to push the remnants of Maria far enough off shore
to break us free from the easterly flow. Drier and more seasonable
conditions should follow the front, and continue into the weekend.


As of 250 PM EDT Friday...

No change in the general synoptic pattern as a large ridge of
high pressure dominates the eastern US while tropical systems
over the Atlantic remain too far offshore to impact our weather.
Any convective precipitation will be sliding further to the
south and is not expected to impact any TAF sites but will
include VCSH at KBCB at issuance for the isolated showers
moving through the NRV. The result will be VFR flight conditions
through the period with some nocturnal fog/stratus development
primarily expected to affect locations west of the Blue Ridge.
There are some indications that lower dew points will start
working in from the north and may limit fog development at KLWB,
but will defer to climatology and indicate a tempo for IFR
toward daybreak.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Overall persistence forecast to prevail this weekend into early
next week as strong high pressure aloft builds in from the
northwest keeping tropical moisture offshore. This should also
maintain good flying conditions along with mostly dry weather,
outside of any late night/early morning fog from Saturday
through Tuesday.




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