Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220455 AAA

1155 PM CDT Thu May 21 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

The unseasonably cool weather will continue tonight as surface
high pressure settles over the area. Remaining cloud cover will
clear and will monitor fog potential overnight especially across
south central Missouri.

Clouds will once again be on the increase Friday as an initial minor
shortwave trough swings into the Plains.  Developing moisture
advection and isentropic upglide will bring showers from the Plains
into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri during the day
Friday into Friday night with the best coverage west of Highway 65.
Areas across the eastern Ozarks may remain dry Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

Warm air and moisture advection will strengthen Saturday through the
weekend a broad upper level trough slowly pushes east across the
western U.S.  Scattered to potentially numerous convection will
impact eastern Kansas into western Missouri Saturday on the edge of
a deep moisture plume with less coverage farther east during the day

The coverage and intensity of rainfall will gradually increase from
the west Saturday night through Monday as the western trough slowly
lifts to the east and northeast. Rainfall efficiency will increase
as the deep moisture plume shifts eastward. Rainfall totals could become
heavy late in the weekend particularly across southeastern Kansas
into southwestern Missouri where storm rainfall could approach 3
inches. The potential for flooding will have to be closely monitored
and Flash Flood Watches may be issued with later forecast.

The potential for severe weather remains conditional with the amount
of instability in question.  There could be more robust updrafts
Sunday afternoon and evening if sufficient surface heating takes

Models continue to depict an unsettled weather pattern next week
with periodic chances for showers.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours. High
pressure is in control, for now, though this will change over the
next 12-24 hours as a weakening storm system enters from the west.
Dry air in place at this time will fight incoming moisture and we
will see a gradual increase in high, then mid level cloud cover. A
few light showers will be possible at JLN during the mid to late
afternoon hours, otherwise most locations will likely see
sprinkles (if anything). Model output does indicate that ceilings
will gradually lower heading into Friday evening, though stay in
the VFR range.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Gagan is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.