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000
FXUS66 KSGX 071101
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE COOL WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY START IN THE COASTAL BASIN.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TO BECOME SUNNY MOST OF THE DAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND. COASTAL CLOUDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPAND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH COOLER ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED NEARLY EVERY CORNER OF THE COASTAL BASIN THIS
MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN SPOTTY DRIZZLE TOO. INTERESTINGLY...THE
DECK OF CLOUDS IS MOSTLY OVER LAND WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER
THE WATER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH UTAH WILL DEPART AND IN
ITS WAKE SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP. SOME OF THAT WILL MANIFEST
ITSELF WITH SOME NORTHERLY BREEZES TODAY IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND IN
THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY. AND THAT WILL HELP CLEAR THE MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS RATHER QUICKLY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN UP AND POINT
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SOME CORRIDORS SUCH
AS BELOW CAJON PASS INTO ORANGE COUNTY AND IN THE BANNING AREA...BUT
NOT SO STRONG IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THROUGH THESE CORRIDORS WINDS
WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH...BUT HIGHEST WIND GUSTS IN A PLACE LIKE
FREMONT CANYON FOR EXAMPLE COULD EXCEED 45 MPH. A RATHER STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUD FREE SATURDAY AND WITH DRY COMPRESSING AIR WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...TEMPS WILL BE UNLEASHED TO CLIMB RAPIDLY. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...80S WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL
BASIN AND IN THE LOWER DESERTS...70S AT THE BEACHES AND HIGH
DESERT...AND WIDESPREAD 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING INTO
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT WILL DO LITTLE
TO CAP TEMPS. THIS NEXT TROUGH WILL HELP TO REDEVELOP THE MARINE
LAYER AND CREATE A DECENT CHANCE AT SOME DENSE COASTAL FOG SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS MONDAY FOR COOLER WEATHER AND MORE
COASTAL CLOUDS EXTENDING INLAND...AND MOUNTAIN AND DESERT WINDS TOO.
AS THE TROUGH HEADS INTO THE INTERIOR WEST...SOME OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AGAIN. CLEAR SKIES...DRY AIR AND
MUCH HIGHER DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
BEYOND THAT CONFIDENCE TANKS AS MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH A
COUPLE SOLUTIONS BRINGING A CUTOFF LOW INTO OUR REGION...BUT MOST
SOLUTIONS/ENSEMBLES ESTABLISH THE WEST COAST RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
071000Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS...WITH BASES 1000-2000 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2500 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE W OF THE MTNS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COASTAL EDDY MAY RAISE TOPS AND BASES A FEW HUNDRED
FEET BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR. VIS 2-4 SM BR IS POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS
NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR TOWARDS THE COAST BY
AROUND 07/1800 UTC. DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MOST LOW
CLOUDS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME LOW STRATUS AND FG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST NEAR KCRQ AND KSAN.

MTNS/DESERTS...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS AOA 15K FT WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS. GUSTY W WINDS TO AROUND 45 KT POSSIBLE OVER DESERTS AND DESERT
MTN SLOPES THIS MORNING...DECREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
WINDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL 4 AM THIS MORNING.
COMBINED SEAS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 8-10 FT THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.

A MODERATELY SIZED NW SWELL WITH A 15 SEC PERIOD WILL CREATE HIGH
SURF ALONG SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SURF 4 TO 7 FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 9 FEET IS LIKELY ALONG WEST
FACING. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM PST SATURDAY
     FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST EARLY THIS
MORNING      FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
BORDER      EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT