Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 061643
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
843 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING VERY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER WITH GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...WITH THE WARMEST
DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
MID TO UPPER EIGHTIES IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN ONSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AS EXPECTED...WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH 8 AM PST THIS MORNING.
OFFSHORE WIND-PRONE AREAS OF THE MTS AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS ARE
REPORTING WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS 45-55 MPH. A PEAK GUST OF
58MPH OCCURRED IN THE SANTA ANA MTS THIS MORNING AT 7 AM PST. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS HOLDING STEADY...STRONG OFFSHORE FROM
SW NV-SAN DIEGO AT 14 MBS...AND WEAK OFFSHORE 2-3 MBS FROM THE LOWER
DESERTS. THE 12Z MIRAMAR SOUNDING HAD WEAK WINDS BELOW 10K FT AND A
SFC-BASED INVERSION.

NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
ALONG THE COASTAL FOOTHILLS AND BELOW CANYONS THROUGH 1 PM PST.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PAC
NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY AS THE
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. BY THIS EVENING THE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AFTER WHICH TIME THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD AND THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL
STRENGTHEN. THE RESULTING STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND UPPER RIDGE WILL
COMBINE TO BRING WARM...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY MORNING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WIND-
PRONE LOCATIONS. THE WINDS WILL VARY DIURNALLY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOONS.
EXPECT THE WARMEST DAYS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPS REACHING THE MI TO UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS WEST OF THE MTNS.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...AND THE OFFSHORE WINDS
DECREASE AS THE SFC HIGH IN THE GREAT BASIN WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO DECREASE...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...

061611Z...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND MOSTLY SKC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. NE
TO E WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES/
CANYONS...AND ALONG COASTAL SLOPES AND COASTAL FOOTHILLS...WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PRODUCING AREAS OF MOD-STG UDDFS/
LLWS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. SOME GUSTY NE WINDS COULD SURFACE AT
KSNA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AT KONT LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
811 AM...FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GUSTY EAST
TO NORTHEAST SANTA ANA WINDS OF 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST... MAINLY NORTH OF LA JOLLA. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR ORANGE COUNTY INLAND
     AREAS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING-SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS
     AND FOOTHILLS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD/PG
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON


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