Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 131711
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1111 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions today with southeast winds of 10 to 15
knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots around 00z. Winds at KABI and
KSJT will increase to 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, late this
evening as a low level jet of 35 to 45 knots develops. Stratus is
forecast to result in MVFR ceilings at all sites Sunday morning,
except KABI where MVFR ceilings are less certain. VFR ceilings
will return to all sites by late morning/early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through most of the next 24 hours.
There are a few low clouds developing along and south of
I-35...but these are not expected to make much progress into our
area this morning, so have kept skies clear this morning. As
southerly flow increases today and tonight, moisture will also
increase, bringing low clouds into the area after midnight. Have
introduced MVFR conditions at KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT at around 09Z.
20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

The benign weather pattern with mild temperatures will continue
through Sunday morning. Light and variable winds this morning will
become south to southeast during the morning hours. This flow will
bring Gulf of Mexico moisture into our area today, raising dewpoints
into the 40s by early afternoon. Dewpoints are expected to
eventually rise into the lower 50s for the southern 2/3 of the area
by late tonight. This will result in warmer overnight temperatures
and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Low clouds are also expected to
affect areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line, although
these low clouds could affect areas as far north as the I-20
corridor by early Sunday morning. Highs today will be similar to
Friday with cooler temperatures in the Big Country of upper 60s to
near 70 with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

20

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue next week with dry
conditions for west central Texas.

A few shortwave upper troughs will dive southeast across the Plains
to the mid-Mississippi Valley, sending weak cold fronts south
into west central Texas Sunday afternoon, Monday and again Tuesday
afternoon. While the main effect from these weak fronts will be
temporary wind shifts, daily high temperatures will be a few
degrees cooler across the Big Country, relative to the rest of our
area.

The warmest temperatures overall are expected Wednesday and
Thursday, as an upper ridge gradually shifts east across Texas.
Highs are expected to be in the 75-80 degree range Wednesday, and
in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. South winds will
develop Wednesday morning, increasing and becoming gusty through
Thursday. With this setup, low-level moisture will increase and
could have at least patchy low cloud development early Wednesday
and Thursday mornings.

An upper trough is progged to move east across the northern and
central Plains Thursday night, with trailing portion of associated
cold front moving south across much of west central Texas on Friday.
This looks to be another weak front, resulting in mainly just a wind
shift.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  69  51  72  43 /   0   0   5   5
San Angelo  75  51  77  38 /   0   0   5   0
Junction  74  49  73  37 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

Daniels


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