Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 011739
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Generally VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. CIGs
are currently running from just under 3000 feet to around 4000
feet. Expect them to hover around the 4k foot mark through
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are possible tonight,
mainly after 00Z, with the best chance for showers affecting the
KSOA site. Winds will remain northeast and gusty through tonight.
20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Stratus is beginning to develop across the Edwards Plateau and
Interstate 10 corridor and is forecast to continue to increase
early this morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at KSOA, KBBD, and
KSOA, with less confidence at KSJT and KABI. Cloud cover should
continue through the day, although ceilings are forecast to lift
to VFR category by early to mid afternoon. Isolated showers are
possible this afternoon, but better coverage is expected
overnight, along with isolated thunderstorms. Expect northeast
winds of 10 to 15 knots, becoming north this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper level shortwave through is forecast to move across the
Southern Plains late today into Monday morning. Ahead of this
feature, isentropic ascent will increase across the region,
resulting in increased cloud cover and scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon is across the western half of the forecast area, with
a better chance across much of West Central Texas overnight. The
highest PoPs overnight will be across Crockett County/Interstate 10
corridor, with PoPs decreasing as you head north into the Big
Country. Although an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is
possible in our southern counties, most of this activity is forecast
to remain south of the forecast area.

The abundant cloud cover and brisk northeast winds today will help
to keep temperatures from getting much higher than the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s to the mid
50s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)

Shortwave will continue to move across West Central Texas on
Monday, with showers and a few storms continuing for at least the
morning hours. Abundant cloud cover and northerly surface winds
will make for a cool day. Highs only in the 60s for most
locations.

System pushes out of the area, with an upper level ridge building
into the area for the middle and end of the week. Dry and warmer
with highs climbing into the 80s by Wednesday. Models still
showing another deep upper level low over the Western US for next
weekend, with a dryline setting up across West Texas. Will
include a mention of showers and storms for the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  49  66  45 /  20  50  30   5
San Angelo  70  51  69  46 /  30  60  50   5
Junction  76  56  69  48 /  20  50  50  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$


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