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000
FXUS64 KSJT 241150
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
650 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 hours.
Isolated convection may develop across the southern terminals later
today. Coverage is expected to be too sparse to mention at this time
but will monitor trends and make amendments as necessary. Expect
light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
The subtropical high will be centered a little farther south across
northern New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.
West Central Texas will remain on the southeast side of the high,
with deep easterly flow over the area the next 24 hours. It will be
hot again today but the deep easterly flow should temper afternoon
highs a few degrees areawide. Have lowered temperatures a couple of
degrees today, which will result in highs closer to normal for this
time of year with readings from the mid 90s south, to the upper 90s
north.

There is also a chance for some isolated showers and thunderstorms
primarily across the southern half of the forecast area this
afternoon. An outflow boundary from convection that developed
northeast of the area last night, was moving southwest towards the
area early this morning. This boundary, albeit weak, will be
situated across our central and southern counties this afternoon.
This area will also be clipped by a weak disturbance rotating around
the southeast side of the ridge as indicated by latest satellite and
model data. Given the presence of the boundary and minimal CAP this
afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms were added roughly
south of a Brownwood to Iraan line. Any storms that develop will
be rather high based and will be capable of producing gusty winds
due to a substantial dry sub cloud layer. For tonight, expect partly
cloudy skies with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)

Hot temperatures will continue through at least this weekend, with a
change in the pattern forecast for next week. A large upper level
ridge will remain centered across New Mexico/Colorado, with its
influence extending well into Texas. Above normal temperatures and
negligible rain chances are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Highs will range from 99 to 104 across the Big Country, to 96 to 100
across the Interstate 10 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

An unusually strong upper level trough is forecast to take shape
across the Great Lakes region/Midwest early next week. This will
send a weak cold front toward the Red River and possibly into the
Big Country on Monday. There is still disagreement on the timing and
strength of this front. For now, only minor changes were made to
PoPs Monday night and Tuesday, which are confined to mainly the Big
Country. Slightly cooler temperatures are also forecast, especially
across the Big Country. A second, stronger front, is forecast to
approach the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Again, this far out,
there is a lot of uncertainty in the timing of this feature. For
now, PoPs were expanded south through much of the area on day 7,
with highs generally in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Details on the
possible cooler weather and rain chances should become more apparent
as we get closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  74  99  75  99 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  71 100  73 100 /  10   5   5   0   0
Junction  96  70  98  72  98 /  10  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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