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000
FXUS64 KSJT 211107
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
607 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014



.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

BRIEF IFR OR MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW CLOUDS BOTH MOVING NORTHWARD AND FORMING
ACROSS BRADY...JUNCTION...SONORA...SAN ANGELO AND ABILENE
AIRPORTS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING TO
MOSTLY VRF FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT NEAR BRADY...JUNCTION AND SONORA AIRPORTS WHICH MAY
RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR FLYING CONDITIONS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN IMPROVED FLYING WEATHER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible tonight, mainly at KABI
as an upper trough moves across. Potential is too low to have in
TAFS however.

MVFR Stratus will continue to move in overnight. CIGS will likely
fall into the IFR category overnight along the I-10 corridor and
eastern sections including KBBD. Slightly drier will will move in at
KABI and KSJT mid morning as a weak surface trough approaches,
shifting winds southwest and scattering out MVFR CIGS. KBBD, KSOA,
and KJCT eventually lift to VFR early afternoon.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/
SHORT TERM...
Showers and thunderstorms should end this evening after sunset as
the lift associated with the jet max and associated PVA moves
northeast of the area.  Although not likely, stray thunderstorm from
the Trans Pecos could reach Crockett County this evening. Will
insert low pops for our southwestern counties.

A cold front along with a weak upper level trough will move
southeast into West Central Texas tomorrow.  As they interact with a
warm and moist boundary layer, this will set the stage for a round
of severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. There is a slight risk
for severe storms on Monday along and south of a line from Albany to
Mertzon. MUCAPE Values in excess of 2000 j/kg coupled with steep
lapse rates underneath the cold air aloft and weak 0-6km Bulk Shear
Values of 20kts should set the stage for severe storms.  The main
threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

26

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)

The main concerns in the long term forecast are a chance of showers
and thunderstorms Monday evening and Wednesday evening. A weak cold
front will move into the Big Country tomorrow morning, slow down,
then stall around the Concho Valley Monday evening. Enough
convergence will be present along the boundary to result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday evening. Although
isolated convection is possible farther north, I believe most of the
convection will remain south of a San Angelo to Coleman line. SBCAPE
values will be in the 500 to 2000 J/KG range, with a fairly unstable
atmosphere present. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concerns. Most convection should begin to dissipate after midnight,
due to loss of heating.

Upper level ridging will result in above normal temperatures on
Tuesday, along with mainly dry conditions. Although the cold front
will begin to dissipate across the Interstate 10 corridor overnight
Monday, enough of a remnant boundary may reside in the area to
result in an isolated thunderstorm. I have kept PoPs out of the
forecast, as confidence remains too low that any convection will
develop. On Wednesday, the next upper level trough will approach the
Plains. Wednesday afternoon, the dryline will become more defined
just west of our area, with increasing instability ahead of the
boundary. I expect showers and thunderstorms to develop along the
dryline by late afternoon, then move east across a large part of the
area during the evening hours. Although this is still several days
away, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with
large hail and damaging winds being the main hazards. Above normal
temperatures are forecast through the end of the work week, with
highs generally in the upper 80s and 90s, and lows in the 60s. The
next upper level trough will approach West Central Texas next
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but differences
in timing and strength remain in the models, so for now I have left
PoPs out of the forecast.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  67  83  60  85 /  40  30  30  20   5
San Angelo  74  65  85  60  86 /  30  20  30  30  10
Junction  70  62  83  62  86 /  30  20  30  40  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/04