Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 072044
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
344 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2015
(Tonight and Thursday)
The convection that developed early this morning over the Trans-
Pecos region has dissipated, with additional diurnal cells forming
over the Davis Mountains. Dry weather continues across west central
TX this afternoon due to the presence of mid-level shortwave
ridging. The large upper-level trough over the Desert Southwest is
moving southeast into northern Mexico at this time and will continue
this general trend through Thursday. With this feature remaining
west of El Paso, it is going to be difficult to see significant
rainfall across most of the area in the next 24 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening over
Crockett County, generally west of a Sterling City-Sonora line
through sunrise. Rain chances then spread across most of the area on
Thursday. The best rain chances tomorrow will continue over Crockett
County, with PoPs tapering off to the north and east. Rainfall
amounts through 6 PM Thursday will remain less than 1/4 inch across
most of the CWA, but may approach 1 inch along the Pecos River.
Temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s,
with highs on Thursday generally in the mid 80s. Slightly cooler
temps are anticipated across the southwest portion of the CWA where
rain will be more widespread.
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
The 12Z models are in good agreement with the forecast track of
the upper low Thursday night and Friday, but still have differences
with the QPF and placement of the axis of heaviest rainfall.
The upper low is forecast to drift a little farther south to near the
southern tip of Sonora Province in Mexico Thursday night, and
then to regtrograde west to the Baja Peninsula by Friday evening.
The main time frame for the heavier rainfall is expected to be
Thursday night and early Friday morning, across the southwestern
part of our area. With a combination of upper level divergence,
precipitable water values around 1.5 inches and an embedded
disturbance lifting north around the eastern side of the low,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develp and expand north
and east across much of our area overnight. The best chance and
coverage is expected to be across our southwestern counties, and
we continue to carry a southwest to northeast gradient with PoPs
and QPF. Heavy rainfall will be possible southwest of a Sterling
City to Junction line.
On Friday, a weak cold front will move south across the Big Country
and possibly into our central counties. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of this front, while
rain chances begin to drop off in our southwestern counties. Dry
conditions are expected on Saturday with decreased cloud cover, as
the upper low retrogrades further into the eastern Pacific and
heights build aloft over Texas.
Dry and warm conditions are expected Sunday through Wednesday of
next week, when a mid/upper level ridge over parts of the
southwestern states into Texas will be our main influence.
Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be roughly 5-10
degrees above normal for this time of year. The warmest day looks
to be on Monday, with compressional warming effects indicated just
ahead of an approaching cold front. Have some uncertainty on the
forecast timing of this front, and temperature adjustments may be
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 62 86 65 83 / 10 20 50 40
San Angelo 62 86 65 84 / 10 40 70 60
Junction 64 85 66 84 / 10 40 50 50