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000
FXUS64 KSJT 311053
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
453 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2015


.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

All terminals will have MVFR conditions degrading to IFR within
the next several hours as a large area of widespread rain moves
east over all of West Central Texas. Conditions will continue to
deteriorate through today and into the evening hours with
occasional LIFR conditions possible. Conditions are not expected
to begin improving until after 06Z tonight.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

An upper low spinning over southern California and the northern Baja
early this morning will continue to split from its parent upper
trough through today. The separated upper low will drift south down
the Baja Peninsula through tonight while the upper trough moves over
West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large-scale ascent associated
with the upper level system is producing a large area of showers
over West Texas and into the southern Panhandle early this morning.
This area of showers will continue to drift east over our western
counties before sunrise and will envelop the entire forecast area
through the remainder of the day. Have included a chance of isolated
thunder over the forecast area this evening and overnight as the
area of showers continues to move over the area. The chance of
showers will decrease from west to east through tonight. Still
expecting widespread rainfall amounts around 1/2 inch with localized
amounts near 1 1/2 inch in the heavier showers.

Afternoon highs will range from  the upper 40s over the Big Country
to the mid 50s over the southern CWA. Lows tomorrow morning will
only be slightly cooler than the afternoon highs, in the mid 40s
over the Big Country and the lower 50s over the southern CWA.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

A slight chance of showers will continue Sunday, across mainly the
eastern and southern parts of West Central Texas, as the main trough
axis swings east of the region. In addition, a cold front will move
through the area, with drier/cooler air filtering in behind the
boundary. Winds will become light by early morning Monday, allowing
for fairly good radiational cooling conditions. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 20s across the Big Country, to near 30 across the
Interstate 10 corridor. Highs on Monday will be below season
normals, in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Slightly warmer temperatures are in store Tuesday, and will be
dependent on the eventual track of an upper level low. Models have
shifted the track of this low a bit farther north, generally moving
across Central Texas late Tuesday/Wednesday. This track would bring
a chance of showers, possibly an isolated thunderstorm, to the
southeast half of the forecast area. For now, only slight chance
PoPs were introduced for this area, as uncertainty remains high on
the eventual track of this low.

A steady warm up will ensue Wednesday with highs back into the mid
to upper 60s, possibly pushing the 70 degree mark. A cold front will
move through the area Wednesday night, bringing a return of slightly
below normal temperatures through the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  50  47  52  27  48 / 100  60  20  10   0
San Angelo  54  50  56  30  52 / 100  40  20  10   0
Junction  56  52  61  32  52 /  90  60  30  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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