Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 190428
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1028 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for a few hours of VFR conditions at the terminals,
otherwise stratus will spread back north across West Central
Texas late tonight, with mainly MVFR ceilings by 09-11Z. Also, IFR
ceilings at KSOA by 10Z. The low clouds will remain across the
area through mid afternoon Monday, then VFR by Monday evening. The
winds will be from the south with gusts to 25 knots. In addition,
have added low level wind shear at the KSOA terminal until 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for a few hours of VFR conditions at KABI, otherwise stratus
will will spread back north across West Central Texas this
evening, with low clouds through much of tonight and Monday.
Expect mainly MVFR ceilings and IFR by 10Z at KSOA. The winds will
be from the south with gusts to 25 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Showers and isolated thunderstorms that moved across the area this
morning have mostly pushed off to the east this afternoon...
although a few light showers are streaming eastward across our far
southeastern counties. Otherwise, temperatures have warmed into the
60s and 70s with breezy southerly winds due to a tightening pressure
gradient across west Texas.

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue across our area through
Monday. Model guidance indicates another shortwave in the southwest
flow moving across the area tonight and tomorrow...with scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing to our west and moving eastward
overnight and Monday morning. Thus, will maintain a chance of
scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight with the highest chances
across the northern half of the area. Additional showers or
thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon mainly across the
eastern half of the area. However, a lack of upper level forcing and
strong capping per forecast soundings should limit thunderstorm
development. Otherwise, expect another warm and breezy afternoon
with high temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s.

42

LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)

The somewhat unsettled pattern developing across our area will
continue through the end of the work week.

A deep upper trough extending from the northern Rockies into the
southwestern CONUS Monday night will shift a bit east on Tuesday.
However, reloading of the trough will keep its mean position over
roughly the western third of the country through the end of the
week. Our area will be under southwest flow aloft, and showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with periodic disturbances entering
our area. Timing, track and strength of these disturbances will
affect the chance and coverage of rain in our area. Early spring-
like conditions are expected Monday night and Tuesday, with well-
above normal temperatures and a moist airmass. At this time, appears
that a stronger disturbance will bring increased chances for showers
and thunderstorms Monday night. The higher PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms shift to our eastern counties on Tuesday, as a dryline
mixes east into that area.

Could have another round of showers and thunderstorms across the
area southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood line Tuesday night, with
showers possible farther northwest across most of our area. A strong
cold front will push south across the Big Country area late Tuesday
night, and the GFS has a disturbance aloft moving into our area.
Showers will be likely on Wednesday morning with a few thunderstorms
possible southeast of an Ozona to Brownwood line, with showers
possible farther north and west. The cold front will push south to
the I-10 corridor by late Wednesday morning if not a little sooner.

Temperatures will be much colder on Wednesday with gusty north
winds, and should only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs
across the Big Country. Expecting 40s for highs across our central
counties, and may need to trend colder for the southern part of our
area where temperatures could fall after the frontal passage.

Partial clearing Wednesday night may allow temperatures to drop into
the upper 20s to lower 30s for lows Wednesday night across the
northern half of our area. An overrunning setup is progged for
Thursday, with cloud cover increasing rapidly from the south in the
morning, and elevated convection possibly developing with steepening
mid-level lapse rates. Temperatures are expected to climb above
freezing by the time convection develops Thursday and reach the mid
40s north to mid 50s south for highs. This will be monitored in
subsequent model data.

Rain chances look to continue Friday into next weekend, with a
warming trend in temperatures. With uncertainty in the details by
that time, keeping rain chances low across our area for now.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  63  79  60  74 /  30  20  40  30
San Angelo  62  80  59  77 /  20  10  50  10
Junction  63  77  61  75 /  20  20  70  50
Brownwood  61  77  61  74 /  20  20  70  70
Sweetwater  60  79  57  74 /  30  10  30  10
Ozona       61  75  58  75 /  20  10  50  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

21



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