Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 200204
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
804 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY OUT OF THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY. A COLD SPRING STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INSTABILITY SHOWERS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE
ACROSS THE CWA NORTH OF THE WEAK CLOSED LOW TRACKING ACROSS AZ ARE
STARTING TO DIE OFF THIS EVE. THESE HAVE ENDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH EXCEPT ALONG THE NV BORDER BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH.

EXPECT THE DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVE WITH ONLY A FEW STRAGGLERS LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION GOING AGAIN TOMORROW MAINLY OVER SRN AND ERN UT WHILE
THE NORTH STAYS DRY IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DRY FRONT THAT SAGS
ACROSS NRN UT. EXPECTED TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD EVEN NORTH OF THE
FRONT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUN NIGHT AND THE AXIS
QUICKLY CROSSES UT BY MON AFTN WITH A VERY MILD SWLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTING THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ABOUT THE NRN 1/2 OF THE CWA MON AFTN/EVE AS
THE LAST OF THE SOMEWHAT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THIS
WEEKEND LIFTS ACROSS THE N IN THE INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT SWLY
FLOW. DONT SEE MUCH THREAT OF PRECIP FROM THIS BUT ISOLATED GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS CONSIDERABLY MON NIGHT THRU MIDDAY
TUE ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY
DEEP COLD PAC TROF AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE. THIS TROF SWINGS INLAND TUE AND SENDS
A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU NRN UT AHEAD OF IT LATE TUE AFTN THRU TUE
EVE IF LATEST GFS TIMING IS CORRECT...AND IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT AND FAVORABLE TIME OF
DAY SHOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...IMPACTING THE SALT FLATS AND MUCH
OF THE WASATCH FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN DROP OFF AS PRECIP
DEVELOPS BY LATE EVE. THE AIRMASS WITH THIS TROF IS FORECAST TO BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SEND SNOW TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BUT DONT EXPECT MUCH
IF ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW ABOUT 5000 FT.

COLD INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH THRU WED
NIGHT.

ABOUT ALL THAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH FROM THIS EVENT WOULD BE
STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS.

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO LOWER POPS MOST AREAS THIS EVE AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH ANY CIGS REMAINING ABV 7000 FT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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