Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022205
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N84W TO 07N124W TO BEYOND 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH FROM
14N120W TO 22N116W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYERED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 40N117W
TO 19N128W...AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
FROM 30N113W TO 22N115W TO 17N130W. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
S TO SW WINDS OCCURRING N OF 25N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS IN A VERY NARROW BAND SE OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING GRADUALLY SE AND MOVE
THROUGH THE FULL LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED BEFORE
STALLING JUST SE OF MAZATLAN. WINDS AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...STRONG
SW FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OCCURRING SE OF THE
TROUGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH....WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER CLOUDS AND LIGHT
RAIN SPREADING NE ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
ACROSS NW MEXICO.

A 1033 MB HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE PACIFIC NEAR
41N141W SOUTHWARD THEN SE ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 24N124W.
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
NE TRADEWINDS FROM 16N TO 22N W OF 133W...INDUCED BY THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL
SHIFT W-SW BEYOND 140W THROUGH TUE.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE TO
NOCTURNAL  DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WILL PULSE TO 30 KT
AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SEAS TO 10-11 FT BY EARLY TUE
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY EARLY
WED. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT HERE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN LATE THU...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W GULF
OF MEXICO...AND WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU
NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 20-25 KT TUE
NIGHT. FRESH NE WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA EACH NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$
STRIPLING



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