Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151006
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON SEP 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 110.4W 942 MB AT 0900 UTC
SEP 15 MOVING NNW OR 330 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM NE AND 150 SW
SEMICIRCLES. ODILE HAS MOVED ASHORE ACROSS THE S PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...WITH DEVASTATING EFFECTS...AND IS THE
STRONGEST HURRICANE SINCE OLIVIA IN 1967 TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
STATE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. ODILE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND ALMOST DIRECTLY UP THE PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL FORCE
WEAKENING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE SYSTEM
AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO LIFE THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE LARGE WIND CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA E OF THE CENTER AND DRIVE LARGE WAVES AND
SWELL NORTHWARD WITHIN THE GULF...PRODUCING VERY DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE GULF.
ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE VERY LARGE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.5W MOVING
NE 15 KT. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE BECOME
VERY ISOLATED...AS THE LOW IS BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD
CIRCULATION OF ODILE. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE
ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE S OF THE GULFS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND FONSECA IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TWO
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ON EACH END OF THE
ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM NW OF THE
TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 101W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N74W TO LOW PRES NEAR
11.5N91.5W 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N96W 1008 MB TO
10N104W...WHERE IT REMAINS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM THE
REMNANT LOW OF SIXTEEN-E NEAR 16.5N111.5W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES
NEAR 09.5N136W 1009 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 102W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN
270 NM NW OF AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 150 NM S OF
AXIS W OF 134.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 104 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N136W TO
28.5N116W...AND SW TO 21N149W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER W
WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY BREEZE OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY TUE.

THE LEADING EDGE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN
EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS HAVE REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVERNIGHT. SEAS OVER 8 FT ARE BEGINNING TO MERGE
WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH
AND CONFUSED SEAS.

GAP WINDS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH A STRONG BREEZE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC UNDER A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGHER PRES OVER THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRES TO THE S ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TONIGHT AS THE ELONGATED LOW SHIFTS W-
NW.

$$
STRIPLING



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