Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 262214

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


The ITCZ extends from 04.5N113W TO 02N129W TO 01N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of
the ITCZ between 122W and 139W.



NW winds continue around 15 kt across the offshore waters of the
Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro early this afternoon
and 5 to 10 kt south of there, as a 1021 mb high has settle near
26n124w. Seas were generally running 4-6 ft in NW swell.
Elsewhere southeast to Cabo Corrientes winds were light and
variable. Inside the Gulf of California, recent ASCAT data
showed light NW to N winds prevailing S of 25N, light and
variable central portions, and freshening S to SW winds across
the Tiburon Basin. The high center will shift eastward and
weaken during the next couple of days, ahead of an approaching
cold front. This will allow winds to diminish further to light
to gentle speeds through late Monday, except for far north
portions of the Gulf of California. The approaching weak cold
front will move across Baja California Norte and the northern
Gulf of California Monday night and Tuesday, with fresh to
strong southerly winds expected across far north portions
Monday, and a brief and fairly localized pulse of 20 to 25 kt
westerly gap winds there before dawn on Tuesday. Looking farther
ahead, NW winds will strengthen around mid week as strong high
pressure builds north of the area. Seas in offshore zone PMZ011
could reach 8 ft on Wednesday.

Farther south, fresh winds northerly winds across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning have diminished as high pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico has shifted eastward and return flow has set
up over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, a cold front will sweep
through the SW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday and funnel strong gap
winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be
possible Thursday night through Saturday morning.


A very weak pressure pattern prevails from the offshore waters
of the eastern Tropical Pacific northeastward over the western
Caribbean. Light to gentle breezes are the result across the
region. A return to moderate to fresh trade winds across the SW
Caribbean late tonight and Monday will support fresh to strong
gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo starting late tonight.
Strong nocturnal pulses of the winds are then expected through
the upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh northerly gap
winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. The areas of
combined seas 8 ft or greater generated by the gap winds over
the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo may become large enough to
merge on Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes
will persist.


A cold front reaches from 30N127W TO 24.5N135W TO 23N140W. S to
SW winds ahead of the front have diminished to 15-20 kt today as
the mid-level trough north of the front has lifted out to the
NE. Long period NW swell follow the front and are producing seas
to between 8 and 9 ft north of 22N and west of 136W. The front
will continue to move eastward and extend from Baja California
Norte at 30N116W to 25N123W by Tuesday morning. NW swell in the
far NW portion of the discussion area will decay below 8 ft by
tonight, but then build to 8-10 ft across the far NW water
Monday afternoon as fresh to strong NE winds build across that

Seas around 8 ft are present farther south from 05N to 17N
between 124W and 140W, a result of a mix of trade-wind swell
generated by moderate trade winds and longer period NW swell.
This area of near 8 ft seas will persist across this trade wind
belt through Tuesday.

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