Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222117
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N77W TO 10N87W TO
LOW PRES NEAR 09N101W 1010 MB TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS
ANALYZED FROM 08N110W TO 11N119W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N123W
TO 07N127W TO 09N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS N OF THE AXIS TO 11N W OF 131W
AND S OF THE AXIS TO 06N W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 31N137W EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 30N127W TO SOCORRO ISLAND. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AN OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS FROM 10N-21N W OF
130W AS WELL AS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITHIN 300 NM W OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 15N119W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR
10N121W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER W WATERS AND SHRINKING
THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT
MOVES TO 16N124W TO 10N126W BY MIDDAY SUN...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO A FRESH BREEZE BY MIDDAY MON. A NEW ROUND OF NW
SWELL MOVING THROUGH WATERS N OF 25N W OF 135W AT THE MOMENT
WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH W WATERS THROUGH MON AND
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUN AND
MON. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW OVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO
15N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A
MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE NEAR THE TROUGH AND LOW WHICH LIES UNDER THE
REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN TEXAS THROUGH LA PAZ MEXICO TO NEAR 15N125W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL PULL E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
PUSHES W...CARRYING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD STILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER JET
QUICKLY MOVES OVER THE SYSTEM AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE
VERTICAL MOTION. PRESENTLY...THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY JET IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE ITCZ OVER WATERS W OF 129W. THIS CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE SECTION ABOVE.

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING LATE
SUN...REACHING 25N BY MIDDAY MON. HIGH PRES BUILDING IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRES EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NE TO N
CENTRAL MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT

$$
SCHAUER


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