Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260250
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Georgette is centered at 18.2N 128.2W at 0300 UTC,
moving northwest or 310 degrees at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds
have diminished to 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is at 976 mb. A faint eye remains with
Georgette but is filling and warming. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is present within 90 nm across the
north and 45 nm across the south semicircle. Georgette continues
to weaken this evening and this trend is expected to accelerate
during the next 24 hours. As Georgette moves northwest over
cooler waters, eventually becoming a post tropical low on
Thursday. Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Frank is centered near 20.8N 115.0W at 0300 UTC,
moving slowly west-northwest, or 285 degrees at 6 kt. Maximum
sustained winds remain at 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Frank has gone
through periods of increasing and diminishing convection
throughout the day today, and has recently increased near and to
the southeast of the center, where scattered moderate to strong
convection is present within 45 nm across the northwest and 90
nm across the southeast semicircles. Frank will continue to move
west-northwest and is not expected to change much in intensity
through Tuesday before starting to weaken by Tuesday night then
move northwest before becoming a post-tropical remnant low
Thursday. Strong south swell from Frank continues to impact the
south and central Pacific coasts of Baja California, generating
rough and dangerous surf along the local regional coastlines.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these systems.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave N of 09N along 99W is triggering widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection from 06N to
13N between 90W and 103W. This wave will shift west and continue
to produce active weather in its vicinity.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 09.5N75W
to 11N85W to 09N96W to 13.5N118W. The ITCZ extends from 14N129W
to 13N135W to beyond 11N140W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm north and
210 nm south of the trough between 90W and 111W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is present from 06N to 10N between
114W and 124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 136W.

...DISCUSSION...

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Tropical Storm Frank continues move slowly west-northwestward
away from Socorro and the Revillagigedo Islands, and out into
the open eastern Pacific ocean. Southerly swell associated with
Frank impacting the Mexican coasts and waters between Los Cabos
and the entrance to the Gulf of California continue to fade this
evening, and is now peaking across central portions along the
Pacific coast of Baja California. As Frank shifts further
northwest Tue and Wed, associated southeast swell will mix with
northerly swell in the waters of Baja California Norte through
mid week.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and
just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight
hours during the next several days. The winds will be augmented
by nocturnal drainage flow.

West of 120W:

High pressure is building north of the area and into the sub-
tropical areas north of 25N in the wake of Estelle, which has
dissipated west of the area. This is allowing a modest increase
in trade wind flow farther south in the deep tropics west of 130W,
supporting an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms along
the ITCZ boundary. Georgette will track northwest and weaken the
ridge again during the next couple of days, allowing trade winds
to diminish.

Northerly swell to 10 ft generated from strong winds offshore of
the California coast will continue to propagate into the waters
west of 120W and north of 20N into mid week, and mix with
southeast swell generated from Georgette, and Frank as it
crosses west of 120W early Wednesday.

$$
Stripling


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