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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210649 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
149 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE JUST SENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CANCELLATION OF TOR
WATCH 195 FOR SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. CURRENT ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE N AND NW ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN
OK...AND SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUT OF OUR NW ZONES.

WILL ADDRESS THE SVR THREAT IN THE MORNING DISCUSSION LATER THIS
MORNING.

15

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING A BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF
WHICH ARE STILL MESOCYCLONES...EXTENDING FROM NW AR INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SHV SHOWS A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION BUT THAT CAP
IS OBVIOUSLY WEAKER ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. NOT SURE ON THE AMOUNT OF
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SO ANOTHER
UPDATE MAY BE FORTHCOMING IF A FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
BECOMES REALIZED. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY SENT...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN OK/N TX CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...AND
MAY AFFECT KTXK LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO MOST TERMINALS 06Z-09Z...AND LIFT ONCE AGAIN BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AND SLY WINDS PICK UP AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD S AND E DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  69  86  68  89 /  50  70  40  20  20
MLU  90  70  85  67  89 /  30  60  60  20  20
DEQ  82  65  86  65  87 /  70  70  10  20  20
TXK  85  67  86  67  88 /  70  70  20  20  20
ELD  87  68  86  66  88 /  50  70  40  20  20
TYR  87  69  86  69  90 /  50  70  30  10  10
GGG  88  69  86  69  90 /  50  70  30  10  10
LFK  91  71  89  69  90 /  30  60  60  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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