Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 271932
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
232 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area
as of 2PM in response to afternoon heating and a weak inverted
trough draped to the north of the area. With southeast winds at the
surface and aloft, these storms are moving to the northwest, similar
to what we saw on Friday. A few of these storms could be strong but
with less lift than yesterday and a little less moisture to work
with, the severe threat for tonight is lower than Friday. However,
with steep low level lase rates and high instability, a severe storm
with damaging winds is not out of the question. Showers/storms will
diminish with sunset with lows in the lower 70s.
Not much change in the overall pattern on Sunday with the broad
upper ridge anchored over the Washington D.C. region. Winds will
subtly shift to the southeast which will usher in slightly more
moisture than previous days. As well, another inverted
trough/convergence boundary sets up and afternoon
showers/thunderstorms are expected once again. Guidance is in fairly
good agreement that the highest coverage will be east of Huntsville
and be fairly terrain induced but there could be showers/storms all
across the area. Will continue the isolated wording for now but
could need to go to scattered for parts of the area.
The upper ridge finally breaks down on Monday with a weak trough
building over the northeast states. This will drag a frontal
boundary south towards the region. The boundary seems to wash out as
it approaches the area but with lingering moisture and boundaries,
will keep an isolated chance of storms in. The highest chances would
be in the northern half of the CWA.
Winds shift to the northeast by Tuesday morning with drier air
filtering in and a broad area of surface high pressure pressing in
from the north. This pattern will generally hold in place through
Friday. The drier air and little lift will keep the area mostly dry,
even free of afternoon scattered showers and the storms. The best
chance for an isolated shower/storm will be on Thursday and will be
mainly terrain induced.
A weak upper vort max/boundary will sink to the south Thursday into
Friday and behind it, "slightly cooler" and drier air. This will
allow dew points to fall into the middle 60s and keep skies mostly
sunny with little chance of precipitation. Winds shift back to the
south under a developing high on Saturday bringing back the chance
Highs through most of the period will be in the lower to middle 90s
and a deg or two cooler Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.
(Issued 1234 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016)
For 18Z TAFs:
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across N AL/S Middle TN for
the next 14 hours except in the vicinity of any isol -TSRA that
occur btwn 27/18Z-28/01Z where MVFR to IFR conditions are possible.
Then, fog formation is expected between 28/08Z-28/13Z and have
included a drop to MVFR during that time period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville 72 93 72 94 / 10 20 10 20
Shoals 72 93 73 93 / 10 20 10 20
Vinemont 71 92 71 92 / 10 20 10 20
Fayetteville 71 93 71 92 / 10 20 10 20
Albertville 71 91 71 91 / 10 20 20 20
Fort Payne 70 91 70 91 / 10 20 20 20
For more information please visit our website