Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 011217
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
717 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 523 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/
THE WX PATTERN TURNED QUITE ACTIVE ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY AREA
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS
DEVELOPED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS FROM WRN TN/NRN MS INTO
NRN AL. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE LOCAL AREA
TO THE S THIS EARLY WED MORNING...THE FRONT ITSELF MAY BE JUST NOW
STARTING TO ENTER THE THREE SRN MID TN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BOUNDARY DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S LATER TODAY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING INVOF OF N CNTRL AL. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
BE A PERFECT FOCUS MECH FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
ONSET OF LATENT HEATING EFFECTS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TO
DIMINISH BELOW H7 AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE N WITH THE ONCOMING FRONT. WILL NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY. MOISTURE WILL START TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
INTO THU...AS THE STALLED FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT.
WITH ISENTROPIC SUPPORT INCREASING GIVEN THE WAA...ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE SCT CAT AT
LEAST FOR THU. THIS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

GLOBAL MODEL SUITES ARE POINTING TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TURNING
MORE ACTIVE AS ENERGY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED LATE THU/INTO FRI. CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND LIFT INTO THE OH VALLEY STATES DURING THE DAY FRI...THEREBY
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY
REGIONS. A QLCS/LEWP OF STRONG/LOCALLY SVR TSTMS MAY VERY WELL
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING IF
THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE WLY/SPEED SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE PROB FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TSTM THREAT SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W EARLY SAT
MORNING...AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END.

THE WX PATTERN FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS QUIET FOR THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY...WITH OVERALL TEMPS TRENDING CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES. A
STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS XPCTED TO SETTLE INTO THE SE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO
RETURN BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...AS THE FLOW PATTERN ONCE
AGAIN TURNS MORE ACTIVE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES E INTO THE ATLANTIC.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH LGT/VRBL WINDS...ABUNDANT SFC MOISTURE AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES PROMOTING DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS...WILL INCLUDE TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBY THRU 13Z...WITH FOG EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 14Z. FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED S/W OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY...AND EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH LGT ENE FLOW AND SCT
CU/CI. FLOW WILL VEER TO ESE EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LEADING TO VFR CIGS ARND 5 KFT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD
RATHER QUICKLY BTWN 02/04-08Z...WITH WINDS VEERING FURTHER TO SSE AND
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHRA AND PERHAPS A FEW TSRA. STRATUS MAY
BECOME BKN ARND 2500 FT BY END OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPO HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR THIS.

70/DD

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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