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000
FXUS64 KHUN 170824
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
324 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN APPROACHING TROF
CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER
LOW TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE WAS
NOTED OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE PACNW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. CLOSER TO HOME AND AT
THE SFC THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SRLY FLOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS A RESULT, AFTN TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CWFA (WHICH WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY).

A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING IS
ABOUT THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE IN TODAY`S FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP BY THIS TIME IN THE NRN
GOMEX, INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FL.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THIS SYSTEM WILL MEANDER TO THE NORTH/EAST
ACROSS NRN FL AND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT`S THIS FEATURE THAT WILL GOVERN THE SHORT-TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST FOR THE TN VALLEY, THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR LOCAL AREA.
THAT SAID, WITH WAA ONGOING DURING THIS PROCESS, A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T
BE RULED OUT. AS A RESULT, POPS WERE DECREASED DOWN TO 20% BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
COULD BE INTERESTING, VARYING QUITE A BIT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWFA. ERLY FLOW AROUND THE DEPARTING UPPER/SFC LOW TO THE SE WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A CAD EVENT, WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S IN NERN
AL/SRN MIDDLE TN. IN THE WEST, ON THE OTHER HAND, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL DWINDLE AFTER
SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT, MAKING FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO THE
WEEKEND.

FOLLOWING A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH AFTN TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS TO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACNW
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ARRIVE AND MEANDER ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS, ARRIVING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER
IN THEIR TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF THE
MAJORITY OF THE PCPN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTN, WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
AREA IN WAA SHRA FOR PORTIONS OF BOTH DAYS. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES,
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE FROPA BY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS IN THE NRN GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S EACH AFTN, WITH
MORNING LOWS IN THE 55-60 RANGE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1245 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    68  50  63  48 /   0  20  20  10
SHOALS        68  51  66  48 /   0  20  20  10
VINEMONT      67  49  63  46 /   0  20  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  67  48  62  45 /   0  10  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   66  49  62  45 /   0  20  20  10
FORT PAYNE    66  47  63  44 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.