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000
FXUS64 KHUN 251940
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
RIDGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. TEMPS
WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT...A
DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO
MISSOURI WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH TIME. A FEW LEFT OVER CIRRUS/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MAY ADVECT SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT THAT SHOULD
NOT AFFECT THE OVERALL CLOUD COVER THAT MUCH. HAVE GONE ALONG WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVERNIGHT LOWS.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODELS ARE FAVORABLE IN PROGRESSIVELY
SHIFTING THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION BY
EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK RETURN FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND HOT TEMPS FOR THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS INVOLVING THE WARM
ADVECTION AND AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN DIGGING THE UPPER
TROUGH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND MID 90S TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...HAVE KEPT IN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP FOR
SHRA/TSRA. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE MORE LACKING IN MOISTURE TODAY
INVOLVING SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP IN ONLY A LOW END CHANCE POP FOR THAT TIME FRAME. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 18Z MONDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...AS TEMPS SHOULD BE IN LINE
WITH GUIDANCE VALUES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SLIGHT SURFACE REFLECTION
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1205 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...WITH DAYTIME HEATING SCT CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THIS AFTN (NO PCPN). DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    66  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  20
SHOALS        63  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
VINEMONT      63  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
FAYETTEVILLE  62  92  71  94 /  10  10  10  20
ALBERTVILLE   63  92  69  92 /  10  10  10  20
FORT PAYNE    63  93  68  93 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.