Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 312001
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
301 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE WELL ADVERTISED STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA SLIGHTLY AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIP SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
THAT CLEARING SKIES AS PER CURRENT TRENDING TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP OVERNIGHT AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSUE. THE CURRENT TEMP
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD AND WILL NOT BE MAKING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.

A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH A
DEEP UPPER LOW SITUATED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND A 1034 MILLIBAR
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MISSOURI. THE COLD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WITH GUSTY...BRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL KEEP THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD TEMP FORECAST CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR THE DAY...WHICH IS
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST OF NOVEMBER.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INVOLVING MOVING THE
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH A
LESSENING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW EXPECTED. AS WINDS DECOUPLE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AND HAVE ALSO
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DO EXPECT TEMPS TO APPROACH FREEZING IN VALLEY AND SHELTERED AREAS.
EXPECT THAT FROST WILL AGAIN BE WIDESPREAD ON MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND TROUGH AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS DEPICTING DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATER MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BETWEEN MONDAY AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT
OF A FEW PIECES OF 500 MILLIBAR ENERGY WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
RAINFALL EVENT TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

A DECENT WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS PROGGED BY
THE MODELS TO MAKE IT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS ARE HOLDING OFF THE ONSET OF SHOWERS UNTIL AROUND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE FOLLOWED ALONG WITH THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDING.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER POPS INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF MODEL AND THE
SLOWER GFS MODEL INVOLVING ENDING PRECIP CHANCES BY THURSDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE
CONCERNED...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WARMER GFS AND COOLER ECMWF
MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS EXPECTED. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-15KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT EVEN OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER BETWEEN 10-15KTS. SKIES WILL
RAPIDLY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, WITH CLOUD COVER LINGERING E OF KHSV
THRU THE DAY TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL REDEVELOP TOMORROW FROM MID-
MORNING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH SITES.

12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    31  49  30  55 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        30  49  29  55 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      32  49  30  56 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  30  48  28  53 /  10  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   33  48  29  55 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    32  48  29  53 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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