Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 020218 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND FOG COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SIMILAR FORECAST TO LAST NIGHT...WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. CONVECTION
IN PROGRESS EAST OF AN UPPER LOW...EAST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
COAST...WAS SENDING A STREAM OF HIGHER ALTITUDE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY. MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF TC ERIKA REMAINED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MID EVENING TEMPERATURE HAVE COOLED INTO THE 70S (NEAR
70 IN RURAL AREAS TO UPPER 70S IN HUNTSVILLE AT UAH).

WITH MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MORE HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS...PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. STAYED WITH THE PATCHY FOG WE ALREADY HAVE
NOTED IN THE MAJOR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER...BUT ADDED A FEW
MORE SPOTS SUCH AS MERIDIANVILLE AND OTHER RURAL LOCATIONS AROUND THE
REGION. NOT CERTAIN ON HOW MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OR DENSE THE FOG WILL
BECOME...SO STAYED WITH PATCHY FOG WORDING THIS UPDATE.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGIONS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HRS WHERE -BR
IS AGAIN XPCTED TO FORM...WITH CONDS POSSIBLY LOWERING BRIEFLY/TEMPO
INTO THE IFR RANGE AS FAR AS VIS. SCT MID/HIGH CU THEN LOOK TO FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS...WITH SFC WINDS MAINLY LIGHT/VAR.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 323 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE FL PENINSULA...WITH WINDS ALOFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A STEAM OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER WE COULD SEE FOG
DEVELOP MUCH LIKE WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS SHOWS DEWPOINTS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S...THIS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER AND IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE RATHER LOW.

SEVERAL WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND SEASONAL VALUES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
STILL...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

BY THE WEEKEND...A STRONG UPPER HIGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY...BRINGING IN
A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA...MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE OVERALL TIME AND SOLUTION OF THE
POTENTIAL WEDGE...HOWEVER DUE TO THE RELATIVE SIMILARITIES...WILL
KEEP WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE. THE WEEKEND MAY BE OUR ONE SHOT
AT PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS RETURN DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION...BRINGING AN END OF PRECIP BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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