Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 142339 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
639 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOTED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AS OF 19Z. TEMPS WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT...SOME SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE CLOUDS SHOULD NOT HINDER TEMPS FROM FALLING OVERNIGHT
TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS PROGRESSIVELY MOVE A SHORT WAVE AT 500
MILLIBARS FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS AT 12Z MONDAY INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY 00Z TUESDAY. PVA ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THAT DUE TO TIMING...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND INTO NORTHEAST ALABAMA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING A
TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AN
ADJOINING SECOND SHORT WAVE AT 500 MILLIBARS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT AND TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS...SO HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY.

THE MODELS BUILD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR EXPECTED
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KHSV/KMSL TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL VEER FROM N TO E OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 5 KTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY AFTER ~15Z. PATCHY
LGT FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NRN AL LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MENTION IN TAFS
FOR NOW DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE.

KDW

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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