Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 292128
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
328 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...RATHER WARM FOR LATE JANUARY WEATHER
PREVAILED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALL
CHANGE IN A SHORT ORDER...AS A COLD FRONT NOW REACHING FAR NW
ALABAMA SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGHS THUS FAR HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 60S...WITH SW WINDS OF
OF 10-20 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE AREA HAS
DISSIPATED...MAINLY BECAUSE OF A RATHER DRY LOWER/MID ATMOSPHERE
AND MINIMAL FORCING.

A BUSY MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUED ACROSS THE GREAT NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN. A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE BAJA WAS OVERSPREADING THE DESERT SW AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS WERE MOVING EASTWARD...
GETTING INGESTED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...WERE MOVING ACROSS THIS
REGION AS OF THIS WRITING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS...AND HELP GENERATE A NEW SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOWS TO SOUTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREAS TO START
A NEW WEEK.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NW WILL USHER COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN
LACK OF ON-GOING PRECIP AND EXPECTED DRY CONDITIONS (DESPITE LIFT
FROM THE FRONT)...ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE IN FOR OUR
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ALL PRECIP ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT. GIVEN HOW DRY IT IS AND A SHORT DURATION OF ANY
PRECIP...NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF
JANUARY...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE SATURDAY. DESPITE THE SUN...HIGHS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE MID 40S TOMORROW...AND UPPER 40S/NEAR 50 ON
SAT. IN THE MEANWHILE...THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND NEARBY PLAINS WILL MOVE THIS DIRECTION. A SURFACE LOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FORM OVER TEXAS DURING SUNDAY...AND HEAD ENE
TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL WISE...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TRACK THE LOW
ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS (NORTH OF US)...PLACING
US IN THE WARMER/WETTER REGION OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...THEREFORE
NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SWEEP
BY THE AREA SUN EVENING...BRINGING NOTABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
VALLEY. BOTH THE GFS/EC AND THE CANADIAN HAVE IT COLD ENOUGH FOR
THE PRECIP TO BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. GIVEN
DRIER AIR INVADING FROM THE NW...HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWS DURING MON
MORNING. NO WINTRY WEATHER WOES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MON WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE 30S WITH CHILLY NW WINDS OF 5-15 MPH.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NW
TERRITORIES/EASTERN ALASKA...MAINLY IN THE 1040S TO 1050S MB
RANGE. COLD AIR SPILLING SE IN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW WILL KEEP
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS GOING FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN THIS
COLD REGIME...ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP IT AN ALL RAIN AFFAIR...BUT HAVE IT ENDING AS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WED NIGHT. NO WINTRY WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1140 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL ~ AFTER
20Z. AT THAT TIME MOISTURE AHEAD OF DISTURBANCE WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SOME VCSH CONDITIONS BACK TO BOTH TAF SITES. AT THIS
TIME...BELIEVE CIGS WILL ONLY DROP TO MVFR THROUGH 06Z AT KMSL AND
08Z AT KHSV. MODELS HINT AT CIGS DROPPING A BIT LOWER...BUT STILL
REMAINING MVFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KTS AT BOTH SITES WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WIND
GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT SUSTAINED WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS.

KTW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    34  44  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
SHOALS        33  45  26  51 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      34  45  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  32  42  25  48 /  20   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   33  44  26  50 /  20   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    33  44  25  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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