Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 030541 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1240 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS...
MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AR AREAS. SCATTERED MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION. USED VCSH AND VCTS
OVERALL DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF CONVECTION. USED TEMPO
GROUPS OVER CENTRAL PARTS. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT OVER MOST OF AR. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTHERN
AR OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH WINDS TO W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. ON FRIDAY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
CURRENT FORECAST/THINKING HAS NOT ALTERED MUCH VERSUS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ALL MODELS ON GENERALLY THE SAME PAGE
ONCE AGAIN AND A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS IS PREFERRED.

MCS THAT DEVELOPED IN MISSOURI LAST NIGHT AND BRUSHED THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO THE EAST. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE LURKING OVER THE NORTHEAST FROM THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW STARTING TO FORM ONCE AGAIN.

PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO BE
SETTING UP. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BEEN BEEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUAD OF THE NATION LATELY HAS BUCKLED SOMEWHAT...AND WILL ALLOW MUCH
MORE POTENT PIECES OF ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE SEEN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...THOUGH THE EXACT AXIS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS...AND IF HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN
SO...SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST AND MORE OF A BROAD
BRUSH COVERAGE SEEMS PRUDENT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL PREFERENCES FOR
RAIN TO BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WHILE OTHER FAVOR BETTER CHANCES
AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE DAY.

THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN KNOCK THEM DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WILL FOLLOW THE MAV/MEX TRENDS AND
NUMBERS FOR THE MOST PART.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES STRUGGLE TO PUSH EAST INTO
ARKANSAS. IT DOES APPEAR ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW THROUGH
THE LONG TERM WHICH WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS WILL
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON TUESDAY AS THE GFS KEEPS THE
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE RIDGE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. AT THIS POINT...TENDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS WITH THE
RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE DELAYED FROM RUN TO RUN.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...59








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