Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 242314 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...



Some isolated SHRA/TSRA will be seen over the next few hrs...but
should see any activity dissipate by later this evening. Some
patchy fog could be seen overnight...especially near sunrise.
However...not expecting any widespread dense fog at this time.
Some isolated SHRA/TSRA will again be possible on Tue...but will
only mention VCTS at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 248 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017)

Short Term...Tonight thru Wednesday...

Convection has been a bit late to fire up across the area this
afternoon and latest HRRR runs show convection being more spotty
tonight. With that in mind I backed off on POPs just a bit for

As far as the general weather is concerned, the upper level ridge
will be building back over us during the short term, which will make
the issue of excessive heat a greater concern again. With dewpoints
remaining on the high side, many areas will be topping 105 degree
heat index values tomorrow, and again on Wednesday.

That said, I am issuing a heat advisory for tomorrow and Wednesday,
which will include the AR River Valley and the northeastern delta
areas. This meshes up with adjacent advisories being issued by Tulsa
and Memphis. While this advisory will remain in effect through
Wednesday...I should point out that it`s likely that the area will
have to be expanded to include a greater area on Wednesday.

Extended Term...Wednesday night through Monday...

A couple more hot days are expected at the start of the long term
across the state, but changes will slowly begin to take place by the
end of the work week. At the start of the period, significant
ridging aloft will continue just to the west of the state. At the
surface, high pressure will be centered to our south along the Gulf
Coast. This will provide abundant moisture and likely another day of
heat indices at or above 105 for many areas across the forecast
area Thursday.

To the northwest of the state a cold front will be positioned and
will slowly move through the area from late Thursday into the day
Saturday. During this timeframe, rain chances will increase bringing
possible rainfall totals between one half to one inch across
northeastern areas, with less than one half inch elsewhere. As the
front moves through, the mid/upper level pattern changes
significantly (especially for this time of year) with significantly
elongated ridging setting up across the western US and deep
troughing across the east.

So, Arkansas will find itself between the two and under northwest
flow aloft this weekend, with northerly to even northeast flow by
early next week. What does this mean for us locally? In combination
with surface high pressure to the north, much drier and cooler air
will make its way into the state. Expect both daytime and nighttime
temps nearly 10 degrees below normal at times late this weekend into
the early part of next week. Some parts of northern Arkansas could
be looking at overnight lows in the 50s Sunday and Monday morning.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Conway-



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