Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 011129 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. isolated
showers/storms will be possible by this evening, as a frontal
boundary to the south moves north and interacts with an upper
level system moving across in northwest flow aloft. Any
precipitation could restrict conditions below vfr, but as of now,
I`m not confident enough to include this in the central and south.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 312 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
Area of showers/storms has continued to diminish this morning, as
it sinks further into Arkansas. This trend will continue into the
morning hours, but as an upper level system moves into the region
later this morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop.

As a surface boundary to the south of the region moves back to the
north later today and tonight, additional showers/storms will be
possible, mainly over the north. Rain chances will decrease
Saturday night, as ridging over the western Gulf of Mexico tries
to build in to the region, and pushes any leftover mesoscale
boundaries north.

LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
A weak upper shortwave will be approaching the state from the west
at the start of the long term period...with precip chances
increasing from the NW. The best pops will be across the NWRN
counties Sun and Sun night...but as this upper shortwave continues
to move east early next week...chances for precip do increase
further south across a larger portion of the CWA. By Tue...chances
for precip will begin to decrease as the upper wave moves east...and
upper level ridging begins. Temps during this period will probably
be coolest of the long term period...especially under any precip.
Expect near or just above normal temps where precip chances are
lowest...but likely see temps several deg below normal where rain
chances are highest and more cloud cover is expected.

By the middle of next week...the upper level ridge will expand back
over the region. As this happens...expect precip chances to increase
and temps to rise. There is potential that by the end of the
forecast...temps may be warmest seen so far this year for at least
some sites across the CWA. Temps will be in the 90s for most
locations for Wed and Thu...and may even see some sites at or just
over 100...especially for Thu afternoon. Will likely be seeing the
next round of Heat Adv issued by late in the forecast if these
forecast temps continue.

Fire Weather...
No significant fire weather issues are expected through the next
seven days. Minimum afternoon humidities are expected to remain
above 40 percent. The highest rain chances will be on Sunday and
Monday, primarily in the northern half of the area.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...57


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