Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 272324 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Storm system and associated precipitation will move through
Arkansas over the next 24 hours. Timing for the highest
precipitation and thunderstorm chances will be during the
overnight hours for northern sites, in the hours either side of
sunrise over the central, and around mid to late morning in the
south. Conditions will be restricted to mvfr or lower near
thunderstorms. Winds will change around to the southwest and west,
and will be strong, variable and gusty near storms. Expect gradual
improvement from north to south late in the period. TAFS already
out.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 237 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are first and second period
severe storm potential. Then some lingering lighter convection on
Monday, before the entire system move out of the region and
lessens its impact on AR.

Current convection is developing over MO this afternoon with
strong to severe storms. Over AR have only seen isolated showers
this afternoon with a cap indicated in the 12z KLZK sounding
holding overall convection develop. Later tonight, this cap is
expected to break as the upper system moves through the region,
and allow plenty of convection to affect AR. Otherwise,
temperatures this afternoon were mainly in the 80s, while dew
point temperatures were in the 70s. More organized convection was
over MO and rotating around the upper ridge. Currently the main
upper lift was moving from KS to MO, while a low level jet over
eastern OK to northwest AR may develop isolated convection a bit
later.

Timing of the upper storm system appears to be late evening in
northwest AR, to midnight over more northern AR, then as the upper
lift and cold front gradually sag south, additional convection
will be seen over all of AR after midnight to Sunday morning.
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are expected, with
large hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two possible. Plenty
of moisture, lift and instability will be present. Euro model
appears to be the fastest to sag convection into north AR by
midnight or a bit before, with GFS catches up with Euro
overnight, while NAM is the slowest. HRRR model runs a bit
inconsistent with latest more earlier convection into northern AR,
while previous run a bit slower. Moderate risk over northern AR
to Enhance to Slight remains over AR this afternoon, evening and
tonight.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Convection chances will ramp up quickly in the evening over
northwest to northern AR, as some lift and low level jet max moves
into the area. It will take a bit long to reach more of the
northern half and central AR as the upper dynamics move into AR
later. All forms of severe weather are possible with the storms.
The convection will last into Sunday, but severe storm threat is
forecast to lower on Sunday as dynamics weaken. Rain amounts
tonight to Sunday are expected from 1 to 2 inches with a few spots
a bit heavier to 2.5 to 3 with precip water values now up to 1.5
inches. On Sunday, the cold front gradually sags to southern AR
and focuses the convection over that region. The severe storm
threat lows as the dynamics push east of AR. A lower chance of
rain is held in the forecast over the south, Sunday night and
through Monday, before ending as the upper flow becomes parallel
to the boundary and stalls it near the AR and LA state lines.
Temperatures will cool a bit behind the cold front and lows will
be below normal while highs a bit to start, then warm into
Tuesday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

A large area of low pressure will be over the Great Lakes to
begin the long term period with high pressure aloft over the
southeast and western U.S. This pattern will continue through
Tuesday then the upper ridge builds over Arkansas on Wednesday.
The upper ridge weakens Friday and Saturday.

The weekend cold front will be just east of the Mississippi River
Monday night and high pressure will be building over Arkansas.
Another front will move into north Arkansas Tuesday, become
stationary, and bring small chances of showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. The front slowly moves into southern Arkansas
Friday and should wobble to the north for Saturday. Rain chances
will continue Friday and Saturday. Will have to see how this comes
together but it could be the set up for more heavy rain...or at
least prolonged rain over multiple days. Expect temperatures to run
near to slightly below normal through the long term period.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...57


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