Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301144
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
644 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A SHORT WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA TODAY.
CHANCES BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS BUT
WILL BE MVFR AT TIMES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
NEAR THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE PANHANDLE REGION OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH NEAR THE ROCKIES WAS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST. UPLIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL SEND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
THROUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM...KEEPING SHOWERS/
STORMS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-DAY THURSDAY.

MODEL DATA IS AGREEING ON AN AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE
OUACHITA MOUNTAINS...AND WITH THIS AREA ALREADY SEEING AN ABUNDANCE
OF RAINFALL THIS MONTH...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE PRINCIPLE
UPPER SUPPORT TRANSLATES EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE SOUTH...CLOSEST TO THE REMNANT SURFACE SYSTEM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE  WEEKEND...
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING. HOWEVER...READINGS
WILL STILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. IN FACT...HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S...AND MAY END UP SETTING SOME
COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE
TO DAILY RECORD LOWS FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PATTERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS DURING THE EXTENDED.
WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY. A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     80  63  75  60 /  40  40  40  10
CAMDEN AR         83  67  76  64 /  30  60  70  30
HARRISON AR       75  61  74  58 /  60  40  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    79  66  73  59 /  60  80  70  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  65  74  62 /  60  70  70  20
MONTICELLO AR     84  62  76  62 /  30  50  70  30
MOUNT IDA AR      78  64  72  59 /  60  80  70  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  77  62  75  60 /  50  40  40  10
NEWPORT AR        80  63  75  60 /  30  40  40  20
PINE BLUFF AR     81  65  74  63 /  40  70  70  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   78  66  74  60 /  60  70  60  20
SEARCY AR         81  64  76  61 /  50  50  50  20
STUTTGART AR      81  65  76  63 /  40  60  70  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51





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