Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 311109 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
609 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. SOME MVFR CIGS
COULD BE SEEN ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE NRN SITES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE THE EXPECTED COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. FIRST POSSIBLE FREEZE IN NORTHERN AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AR...FROST POSSIBLE IN AREAS...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AR...WHILE WILL UPDATE FREEZE WATCH TO WARNING
OVER CENTRAL AR. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING
APPROACH RECORDS...BUT MOST LOCALS HAVE RECORDS IN THE LOWER 20S
AND FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE LOWS QUITE THAT LOW.

CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S...WHILE A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONTS TO
PUSH INTO AR OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S SATURDAY MORNING. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE SE OF AR...AND THE FIRST
FRONT OR PREFRONTAL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS OVER CENTRAL AR AT
THIS TIME...BRINGING A NW SURFACE FLOW AND COOLER AIR. THE
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND BRING MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
THE STATE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY. TEMPS
WERE IN THE 50S TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH...WHILE 50S CENTRAL TO
SOUTH. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S STATE WIDE...WITH
00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAVING A PRECIP WATER OF 0.56 INCHES.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

TODAY WILL BE A CHILLIER DAY WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE FIRST FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN TO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S SOUTH...THEN THE SECOND FRONT WILL ELEVATE WINDS AND THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE FELT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AR. WINDS WILL REACH 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT. TONIGHT...THE
COLD ADVECTION AND THE STRONG COLD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTLE OVER THE REGION...AND TAKE TEMPS TO THE 20S TO 30S.
FREEZE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AM. AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
QUITE DRY AIR THAT WILL FILTER IN MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL. ON SATURDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA AND KEEPS TEMPS 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR.
ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. TEMPS
REBOUND TO THE 60S WEST...WHILE STILL THE 50S NE AR. ON MONDAY THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES WELL EAST AND A SOUTH WIND FLOW RETURNS TO
AR...WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE SEEN ON MONDAY. THEN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AN
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST MOVES CLOSER TO AR AND
BEINGS TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY SE INTO THE STATE AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING FROM THE NW
ON TUE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WED...WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...THOUGH COVERAGE MAY DECREASE
AS FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE BECOMES WEAKER FROM THE WEST AND NW.
THIS WEAKENING IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE RESULT OF A CLOSED UPPER
FLOW SEPARATING FROM THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS.
WHILE DECREASING POPS ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED FOR LATER IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...THE MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTEMPT TO MOVE THIS
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS EAST OVER THE SRN MS RIVER
VALLEY REGION LATER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AS WITH ANY CLOSED UPPER
LOWS...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY SHIFTS EAST.
AS A RESULT...DROP POPS CONSIDERABLY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST...BUT THERE DOES REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP LATER NEXT
WEEK IF THE UPPER LOW DECIDES TO SHIFT EAST SOONER THAN THE LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     56  29  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         66  33  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       52  25  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  31  54  33 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  34  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      61  29  54  32 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        58  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  33  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  30  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         59  30  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      60  32  54  35 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...62





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.