Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 300211 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
910 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Discussion...

Evening convection winding down, while isolated convection remains
over northwest AR, and southwest AR. Expecting only a slight chance
overnight, mainly over northwest, west to southwest. Some patchy fog
will form, and will add to forecast. Overnight lows will be in the
60s with some 70s. Short range models weaken energy over the region
overnight, while Monday heating in the afternoon to evening will
again develop isolated to scattered convection. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 610 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

.Aviation...

The main area of convection is pushing through SE AR, and currently
affecting KLLQ. This convection will continue to move southeast and
move out of AR. The rest of the evening, an isolated shower or
thunderstorm may be seen, but coverage would be too low to include
in TAFs. Overall VFR flight conditions with ceilings will be start
the forecast, while overnight some patchy areas of MVFR and isolated
IFR with fog will be seen Monday morning around sunrise. Winds will
be mostly light and variable the rest of the evening and overnight.
On Monday, mostly VFR conditions except possible MVFR with any
storms. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 333 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday Night

Small complex of storms has formed during last hour in the Hot
Springs area...along a small scale boundary...and on the edge of
local instability axis...with 4000+ J/kg surface based CAPE
indicated low end Meso-beta type forcing likely is continuing to
support this activity...and near term forecasts have been adjusted
to reflect these actions.

Rest of this period will continue to reflect expected small
scaletype forcings upon...at least a moderately unstsable
atmospheric column...with an appropriate diurnal enhancement.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Sunday

Troughing to the west will be slow to get here in the extended
period. In fact, some data is showing a cutoff low eventually
developing in Texas. At the surface, a cold front in the Plains will
wobble to east, finally arriving in Arkansas late Wednesday and
Thursday. The front will then shift to the south/east by next
weekend, and may very well stall along the Gulf Coast.

Given the trends, went with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms before the front arrives. Good chances for rain will
be noted as the front passes, with the air gradually drying out
behind the front. Even so, kept small chances for rain in the
southern counties with the possibility of the front
stalling.

Not looking for a lot of rain overall. Amounts might average a half
inch to an inch and a half, with locally over two inches. Any severe
weather or flash flooding should be localized.

Temperatures will be at/slightly above normal to begin the period,
with readings closer to normal toward the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     65  85  65  84 /  20  30  30  40
Camden AR         67  89  68  88 /  30  30  30  30
Harrison AR       62  84  63  80 /  20  30  30  40
Hot Springs AR    66  86  67  85 /  30  30  30  40
Little Rock   AR  69  87  68  87 /  20  30  30  40
Monticello AR     69  89  69  88 /  20  30  30  30
Mount Ida AR      64  84  65  84 /  30  30  30  40
Mountain Home AR  63  85  64  81 /  20  30  30  40
Newport AR        66  87  67  86 /  20  30  30  30
Pine Bluff AR     69  87  68  87 /  20  30  30  30
Russellville AR   65  84  66  83 /  30  30  30  40
Searcy AR         66  86  66  85 /  20  30  30  30
Stuttgart AR      70  88  69  87 /  20  30  30  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...55 / Long Term...46



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