Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 020141 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLIER UPDATE TO END CONVECTION CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AS ACTIVITY
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET. THIS EVENING CONVECTION...SOME
SEVERE...IS ON GOING OVER SE KS...NE OK...TO SW MO. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN FLUX...A BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA...UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. TRENDS
HAVE CONVECTION MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST WITH STEERING FLOW...WHILE
SOUTHERN MOST STORMS SHOWING SOME TREND TO THE SE. HAVE CHANCE POPS
OVER NW TO NORTHERN AR TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP THIS. DRY THE REST OF
THE STATE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT TO TREND CONVECTION...
ALBEIT WEAKER...INTO NORTHERN AR LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
FORECAST HAS THIS TREND...WHILE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN. SLIGHT CHANCES MUCH OF CENTRAL TO SOUTH ON TUESDAY
WILL SUFFICE AT THIS TIME...UNTIL NEXT MODEL RUN AND LATEST TRENDS.
WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT IN MISSOURI AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING NORTH NEAR THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. THINK THAT MUCH OF THE TSRA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BORDER THROUGH 06Z...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/PROB 30 GROUPS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE SOUTH...STRATUS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN...AND WILL MIX OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING. HAVE KEPT PRECIP
MENTIONS OUT OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH THIS TAF CYCLE.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE OVERNIGHT MCS HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AR.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPS
ACROSS SE KANSAS AND SW MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT NOT
ALLOWING FOR MUCH OF A PUSH SOUTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...MUCH OF NORTHERN AR REMAINS IN
A PRECIP DEFICIT AND EXPECT ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING TO BE LOCALIZED
IN NATURE.

EXPECT THAT SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL DWINDLE AFTER SUNRISE
ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF ON
THE STATE...DEPENDING ON THE HOW FAR THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF ENE ARKANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING CLOSE BY.

BY MID WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING LATER IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MODEL RMN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY INDCG A BROAD UPR RDG IN
PLACE ACRS THE SRN STATES AT THE START OF THE PD. JUST SOME WDLY
SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED ON FRI.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDC THAT THE UPR
RDG WL SHIFT A BIT WWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WL ALLOW A NEW
CDFNT TO APCH AR FM THE NW...EVENTUALLY MOVG THRU THE FA SAT AND
SUN. SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL ACCOMPANY THE FNT ACRS THE REGION. APPEARS
COOLER AND DRIER CONDS WL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PD AS THE FNTL
BNDRY STALLS OUT S OF THE REGION.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58






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