817
FXUS61 KAKQ 101852
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
252 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will bring another round of showers and
storms this afternoon into tonight. A chance for showers
continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend. Dry and
warmer weather to start next week before another round of
showers and storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure is now near Farmville, with a frontal boundary
extending SE to just south of the Albemarle Sound. There is
also another boundary extending through the RIC metro into SE VA
which is associated with a wind shift from westerly south of
the boundary with lower dew points, and E-NE winds with higher
dew points in the lower 60s north of the boundary. There is also
a cold front extending southward from the low into NC. Showers
with embedded thunder have popped up on the cool side of the
boundary north of Richmond into the Peninsula where the higher
theta-e airmass is located, while storms are developing along
the cold front in NC.

Latest trends in the high res guidance agree with the idea that the
majority of the stronger convection will stay south of the
Albemarle sound this evening (although the CAMs do suggest a
localized stronger storm along or north of the boundary in
Virginia late this afternoon). MLCAPE forecast values may raise
to 500 J/kg near the sound per the HRRR late this afternoon and
have opted to maintain likely pops near the sound itself. Will
go with likely Pops mainly along/north of i-64 late this
afternoon due to the forcing from the boundary and slight
instability of 100-200 j/kg per the mesoanalysis. All of this
should shift offshore this evening as the low pressure and
frontal boundaries move east.

As for the severe potential, instability is the main limiting
factor despite effective shear of 50+ kt and 70-90kt of 500mb
flow. Could not rule out a severe storm late this afternoon,
especially given the latest radar trends over the Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230pm EDT Friday...

Much of Saturday into early afternoon should stay dry as a
weak upper disturbance currently over the western Great Lakes
approaches the area. Models are trending slightly slower with
the precipitation, with the best chances for rain across the far
NW starting late Sat afternoon, then spreading east during the
evening. Best chances will be across the northern half of the
forecast area due to the best energy staying well north of the
region. The upper low and associated surface reflection will be
slow to move out on Sunday, with wrap around showers possible
across mainly eastern Virginia and the lower MD eastern shore.
Models are not terribly aggressive with precipitation on
Sunday, so many places will likely be dry. Trough exits offshore
by Sunday evening with dry weather expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Overall, the extended will be seasonable although there will be rain
chances throughout the week. Monday will be the only day of the week
with no chances for rain with ridging aloft and at the surface. Rain
chances increase for Tuesday and especially on Wednesday as the
closed low currently over the SW states moves east and impacts
the region. Does not look like heavy rainfall as there will not
be an opportunity to tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture, but most
areas should see a quarter to a half an inch of rain. Weak
ridging builds in on Thursday which may allow for a dry day.
Will hold onto 20 PoPs in case of an afternoon/evening shower or
storm. Another better chance for rain on Friday as the
consensus LREF suggest another southern stream wave moving into
the area from the west.

Temperatures will be seasonable for this time of year. Due to the
general zonal flow across the area, am not expecting significant day
to day changes in the temps next week. Highs mostly in the mid 70s
to lower 80s. Lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. &&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Low pressure over central Virginia will move east and offshore
tonight. This will allow the lower clouds over northern VA and the
MD eastern shore to move southward overnight. Will bring all sites
to MVFR late this afternoon into this evening as the boundary moves
southward. Showers may impact RIC, PHF and ORF late this afternoon
into this evening, while thunderstorms are possible at or near ECG
after 21z. VFR conditions expected on Saturday. North to northeast
winds expected through the period (except initially westerly at ECG
late this afternoon).

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR most of Saturday, but another chance
for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry conditions return
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

-Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay,
Atlantic Ocean, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound from today
through Saturday morning-afternoon.

-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions return by Saturday
afternoon/evening, and are expected to persist through at least
Monday.

A stationary front lingers over the Mid-Atlantic coast early this
morning, with E-NE winds of ~15kt north of it, and variable winds of
5-10kt across most of the bay and ocean S of Chincoteague. This
boundary will slowly move south over the waters today, and will pick
up speed this evening before dropping S of the local area tonight as
low pressure develops and tracks NE off the NC Outer Banks. A NE
wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt N of Chincoteague today with
seas building to 5-7ft. Elsewhere, winds will be W-NW at 10-15kt for
much of the day before becoming N-NNE and increasing to ~20kt this
evening shortly after the FROPA. With decent CAA and water temps in
the 60s to near 70F in many areas, went a bit higher than blended
guidance for winds tonight and expect N-NNE winds to remain around
20kt (with frequent 25kt gusts) through much of the night. A few
30kt gusts are possible. As for headlines, SCAs go into effect this
morning N of Parramore Island, and have been issued for all other
zones (except for the upper rivers) starting late this aftn/this
evening. The SCAs run through Sat AM-Sat aftn (ending across the nrn
waters earliest/srn waters latest). Seas build to ~6ft across all
ocean zones tonight, with 3-4ft waves on the bay. Winds quickly
diminish to ~10kt by early Sat aftn as the pressure gradient relaxes
as the low moves well offshore. Seas should quickly fall below 5ft
by mid to late aftn.

A secondary front tracks across the coast later Saturday
aftn/evening. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and
then shifts to NW late Saturday night/early Sunday. The current
forecast is sub-SCA, although some guidance suggests low-end SCA
conditions are possible over the Ches Bay. High pressure builds over
the coast later Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system and
weak cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday-
Wednesday timeframe.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

-Key Messages:

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for almost all of the
area bordering the Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and tidal rivers
for tonight`s high tide.

-Minor tidal flooding (inundation of ~1 foot above ground level in
vulnerable areas) is expected during high tide tonight into early
Saturday.

An increasing NE then N wind tonight into early Saturday along with
elevated astronomical tides will bring a round of widespread minor
tidal flooding across the area. Water levels are expected to crest a
few tenths of a foot above minor flood thresholds in areas adjacent
to the Ches Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and tidal rivers during tonight`s
high tide cycle. Levels at Oyster may crest right at the moderate
flood threshold for that site. Went ahead and issued Coastal Flood
Advisories for all areas except the bay side of the MD Eastern
Shore, where levels are forecast to crest near or just above minor
flood thresholds tonight. A Statement or Advisory may eventually be
needed, but confidence isn`t high enough to issue one attm.
Additional tidal flooding is expected Saturday night.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for
     VAZ075-077.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ076-078-085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ084-086-095-097-098-523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ632-634-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR/MRD
NEAR TERM...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...