493
FXUS61 KAKQ 081415
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1015 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions are expected today, with Heat
Advisories in effect for much of the area. An unsettled pattern
is expected for the rest of the week, with scattered to
numerous afternoon through late evening thunderstorms each day.
Near average temperatures are expected later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid today with widespread heat indices of 103-109F. A
  Heat Advisory remains in effect for nearly the entire area.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
  afternoon through late evening mainly near and north of I-64.
  A few of the storms could produce damaging winds. In
  addition, there is a threat for localized heavy rain/flash
  flooding.

- Only isolated storms are expected across southern VA/NE NC.

Early morning wx analysis shows a strong ridge off the SE CONUS
coast, with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. The flow aloft is
generally W-E but the stronger flow is well to the north of the
local area. A cold front is well to our NW and is slowly approaching
(but this feature won`t get near our area). Warm and humid
conditions prevail with mid 70s-lower 80s along with mid-upper 70s
dew points. Hot and humid wx will is expected today with modest low-
level SSW flow. Temperatures will soar into the mid to locally upper
90s during the afternoon. While dew points will fall a couple
degrees during the day, widespread 103-109F heat indices are
expected during the aftn (before any convection forms), and have
expanded the Heat Advisory to include all counties except western
Louisa, Fluvanna, and the MD/NE NC beaches.

Scattered to numerous tstms will initially develop to our W/NW
during the early to middle part of the aftn ahead of the above
mentioned cold front. Then, the storms likely enter N/NW portions of
the area by 4-5 PM. Scattered to perhaps numerous storms will likely
become outflow dominant as they push to the SE through at least the
NW half of the area before gradually weakening after midnight. The
most likely timing for storms is from 4-8 PM from Louisa-Salisbury,
and 7-11 PM from the Richmond Metro to the VA Peninsulas/Eastern
Shore. Isolated tstms are possible from this aftn through early Wed
AM farther south, but expecting much less in the way of coverage
south of a Farmville-Wakefield-Hampton line. Despite weak effective
shear on the order of 15-20 knots, the hot/humid conditions will
allow for ample instability. Even though the mid-levels won`t be
particularly dry, there should be enough downdraft potential (DCAPE
900-1200 J/kg) for the storms to produce strong to severe wind
gusts (thanks to steep LLVL lapse rates and the very strong sfc
heating). Not expecting much in the way of hail with these
storms. SPC has continued to maintain the Slight Risk (level
2/5) for severe wx across the NW half of the area, with a
Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) farther south and east.

In addition to the severe threat, the storms will be efficient rain
producers given deep warm cloud depths and resultant PWs around
2.0". While most areas haven`t seen a lot of rain in the past 5-6
days and the storms will be moving (albeit slowly)...a quick 2-3" is
likely in a few spots and this could be enough to cause urban/flash
flooding...especially in metro/poor drainage areas. WPC has
maintained the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from the RIC Metro
northward, with a Marginal Risk farther SE. Will not issue Flood
Watches at this time, but a targeted short-fused watch may be needed
later today. The HREF has a broad 10% probability of 3" of rain in 3
hrs this evening across nrn portions of the area. Warm and humid
tonight with lows in the 70s. While it should be mostly dry after 12-
2 AM, there is still a slight chc for tstms near the coast through
late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon
  through late evening on both Wednesday and Thursday, with
  coverage expected to be fairly widespread over much of the
  area.

- Although there is a marginal severe threat both days, the main concern
  with the storms will be heavy rain/flooding, given that some
  areas could see 1-2+" of rain on consecutive days.

More typical July weather (in terms of temperatures) is expected on
Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front washes out and the upper
trough near the Great Lakes tracks east toward New England. Upper
heights will fall slightly across the Mid-Atlantic as a couple of
upper level disturbances track near/over the FA on the southern
periphery of the trough. Heat indices could still be above 100F on
Wed w/ highs in the lower 90s, with slightly cooler wx expected on
Thu. The main forecast concern through the period will be numerous
aftn-late evening tstms each day, with the aforementioned upper
disturbances serving as a focus for tstm development. Unlike today,
tstm coverage will be widespread across nearly the entire area
(including srn VA/NE NC) on Wednesday and Thursday. The flow aloft
will be a bit stronger (especially N) on Wed/Thu, but there will be
slightly less in the way sfc heating than what we`ll see today.
Nevertheless, there is a marginal severe threat (mainly for damaging
to perhaps severe wind gusts) on both days. The bigger threat will
likely be locally heavy rain and flash flooding given that PWs will
remain at or just above 2.0" through at least Thu and storm coverage
will be fairly high on both days (PoPs are 70-80+% from 2-8 PM on
Wed/Thu...which is considerably higher than climatology). Also,
storm motions will be fairly slow and any storm will be capable of
producing localized 2" rain amounts in 30-45 minutes. There is
certainly a possibility that the same areas that receive multiple
inches of rain on consecutive days. While it is too early for Flood
Watches, targeted watches may be needed on one or both days
depending on trends and how much rain falls today/Wed. Timing of
storms will be from mid aftn through late evening, as is typical
this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid through the weekend with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

The warm, humid, and unsettled pattern continues to end the week and
into the weekend with upper ridging well to our SE and fast zonal
flow aloft across the nrn CONUS/srn Canada. Upper disturbances will
continue to track over the local area with weak westerly flow aloft.
As a result, we will continue to see diurnal showers and
thunderstorms each day through Sun, although storm coverage looks to
be less this weekend than it is expected to be on Friday. While
exact details are difficult to pinpoint this far out, the main
concern with any storms will likely be localized flash flooding
given the rain expected from today through Thursday and continued
weak flow aloft. Highs each day will be around seasonal averages for
this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly dry and VFR through at least mid afternoon. Scattered
tstms develop NW of the terminals this aftn ahead of a weak cold
front before pushing toward the area this evening. Tstms will
likely make it close to RIC/SBY before weakening after
04z/midnight. The most likely time for convection at the
terminals is 22-04z. Have PROB30 groups at RIC/SBY/PHF with no
mention of thunder at ORF/ECG where PoPs are lower. Any tstm
will be capable of producing brief LIFR VSBYs in +RA along with
variable gusty winds of 30+ knots. Dry/VFR after 06z Wed with a
slight chc of a shower/tstm near the coast.

Outlook: Mainly VFR from Wed-Fri with scattered to numerous
afternoon-late evening tstms each day, along with some early
morning ground fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Marginal SCAs are in effect for the lower Chesapeake Bay.

- Moderate Rip current risk at all beaches today.

The remnant surface trough from Chantal is now over New England with
high pressure well out in the Atlantic. Winds locally are from the S
or SSW 10-15 kt with a few gusts 18-20 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft in the
Ches Bay with seas 2-4 ft offshore.

SCA headlines remain in effect for the southern bay but latest
guidance and local wind probs show little support for 20-25 kt gusts
through the morning hours. May cancel the SCA headlines at 4AM if
these trends continue. A cold front approaches the region from the
NW late this afternoon which will allow for decent coverage of
showers and storms this evening into the early overnight hours. The
pressure gradient also tightens modestly during this time with SW
winds averaging around 15 kt in the bay/rivers and 15-20 kt offshore
this evening. The front is forecast to stall well inland tonight
into Wednesday (and beyond) with continued threat for showers and
storms across the local waters. Some of these storms could be strong
to severe with locally higher winds/waves/seas in and around
convection. Waves build to 2-3 ft in the stronger SW flow this
evening with seas 3-4 ft. Mainly sub-SCA conditions are expected
through the rest of the week outside of convective influences.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches today. Low
rip risk is expected area-wide on Wednesday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ060>062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-510>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/HET
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR