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000
FXUS61 KCAR 162213
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
613 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure approaches tonight, then crosses the region
Wednesday through Thursday. An occluded front approaches Friday,
crosses the region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6:10 PM Update...The sky remains cloudy over the north and
partly cloudy Downeast. Lowered temps around a degree north
through early evening. Otherwise, no significant changes were
needed this hour.

Upper level low pressure remains across the northern Maritimes
tonight. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will cross
the region early tonight. Isolated showers are possible across
mostly northern areas early tonight. Otherwise, expect
mostly/partly cloudy skies across northern areas tonight. Across
Downeast areas, expect partly cloudy skies early tonight then
mostly clear. The upper low slowly drifts east across the
Maritimes Wednesday, while surface/upper level ridging build
toward the region. Moisture wrapping around the Maritimes low,
along with diurnal cloud development, will produce partly sunny
skies across northern areas Wednesday. Mostly/partly sunny
skies are expected Downeast Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight
will range from the upper 20s to around 30 north, to the lower
to mid 30s Downeast. High temperatures Wednesday will range
from around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s
Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep layered ridging builds over the region Wednesday night and
Thursday, remains over the area Thursday night, then exits to
the east on Friday. Subsidence under the ridge will keep the
area dry through at least midday Friday and highly likely
through the day on Friday. For now the 12z ECMWF is an outlier
in trying to bring in some precipitation to western zones Friday
afternoon. Prefer dry solution of high resolution models as it
is more consistent with the overall synoptic and meso-scale
pattern.

As a result expect the low levels beneath the subsidence
inversion to be well mixed, so have undercut dewpoints during
the day and gone with the high end of guidance for high
temperatures. For lows, with minimal cloud cover and light
winds, went towards the low end of guidance.

Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night should be near to
slightly above normal and highs Thursday and Friday should be
around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The region is under diffluent SW flow aloft Friday night, which
should allow for showers then a steadier light rain to develop
from NW to SE. The region remains under SW flow aloft, with some
passing shortwaves Saturday, so the precipitation should again
become more showery in nature as the day progresses.

The axis of a northern stream trough passes Saturday night
bringing isolated showers, except for scattered showers being
possible along the eastern boarder with Canada early in the
evening.

A series of northern stream shortwaves cross the region Sunday
through Monday. The initial shortwave on Sunday still could
have enough residual moisture to work with to yield some
isolated showers across the North, otherwise it should be dry.

SW flow sets up aloft Monday night and Tuesday, but with
relatively dry low levels and no significant shortwaves progged
to be embedded in the flow, it should be dry.

Lows should be above normal Friday night, followed by near to
slightly below normal temperatures Saturday through Sunday
night. Above normal temperatures return Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR across the region tonight through
Wednesday. However, local MVFR conditions could occur across
northern areas early tonight with any showers. Northwest winds
around 10 knots tonight. Northwest/north winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to around 20 knots Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night-Friday...VFR. NE winds G15-20KT possible
Wednesday evening. S winds G15-20KT possible Friday afternoon.

Friday night into Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. S-SW winds
G15-20KT possible.

Saturday night-Sunday...Becoming VFR Saturday night. W winds
G15-20KT possible Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight
through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Sub-SCA conditions are likely Wednesday night
through Friday. SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean
waters Friday night, with gusts to around 25 kt possible,
however this is not certain. Sub-SCA conditions are then
probable on all waters Saturday-Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Norcross/Maloit
Marine...Norcross/Maloit