284
FXUS61 KCAR 091610
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1210 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. Another low
will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to
our north. Low pressure will track south of the region Saturday.
An upper level trough will remain over the area Sunday into
Monday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Surface low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today.
Aloft, an upper trof remains across northern areas with a
disturbance moving through the trof. Expect isolated/scattered
showers across the region this afternoon along with
cloudy/mostly cloudy skies. High temperatures will range from
around 50 to the mid 50s north, to around 50 to the lower 50s
Downeast. Temperatures have been slow to rise through the
morning. Thus, have lowered expected afternoon high temperatures
across most of the forecast area. Have also updated to adjust
for current conditions along with expected afternoon clouds.

Previous Discussion...
Tonight, lows will fall into the mid 30s with skies beginning
to clear across the north late tonight.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trof stretches across Canada through the Great
Lakes bringing a low pressure across the Mid Atlantic states on
Friday. The high res model are trending drier with the HRRR
indicating possible convective showers in the afternoon with
upper level instability and daytime heating. The cooler airmass
should keep high temps in the mid to upper 50s. By Friday night,
surface high pressure should remain across the area . With the
decreasing clouds, light winds, and cold pool shown in the 925mb
model temps, surface temps could reach into the upper 30s.

By Saturday, the surface high pressure should weaken as the low
pressure system moves across the Mid Atlantic states and shifts
NE over the waters. The GFS models seems to be the only one
indicating showers in the afternoon. Decided to include some
slight chance showers in the east and over the waters. Models
show the cold pool sticking around longer during the day keeping
temps in the mid 50s. By Saturday night, models are in good
agreement with the system exiting to the Maritimes. However,
models are inconsistent with the QPF, with the GFS model shewing
a cold front moving across the state while the other models show
weakening shortwave energy. Decided to decrease rain showers
chances across the region. Temps expected in the upper 30s.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large upper level trof should start to progress across New
England on Sunday which should bring in weak high pressure to
the region. As the upper level trof exits on Monday, surface
models indicate a possible occlusion with a triple point over
New England. Extended models are beginning to show some
consistency with the warm front setting up over the waters the
progressing north Tuesday through Tuesday night, though the
timing is still inconsistent. S flow through the midweek should
bring a warming trend with temps possibly reaching 70.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR across northern areas this afternoon, with
generally MVFR conditions Downeast. Isolated to scattered
showers this afternoon. Occasional MVFR conditions possible
early tonight. Otherwise, VFR tonight. Isolated showers, mostly
early tonight. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon.
Light and variable winds tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Friday...VFR. ENE 5-10kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR, with ocnl MVFR in cigs and
possible showers. ENE 5-10kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...Mainly VFR though may see MVFR in light
showers. NNE 5-10kts.

Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. SW 5-15kts.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory
levels this afternoon through tonight. However, a few wind
gusts could approach small craft advisory levels. Isolated
showers possible this afternoon through early tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts will be marginal over the outer waters
Thursday into Friday evening and again on Saturday morning. Seas
will range from 2 to 4 feet and may approach 5ft on Sunday and
Sunday night.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/AStrauser
Short Term...LaFlash
Long Term...LaFlash
Aviation...Norcross/LaFlash
Marine...Norcross/LaFlash