Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 220956
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
556 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Brief high pressure will build over the area today, followed by
the next trough of low pressure approaching tonight, crossing
the area Saturday, and pushing into New Brunswick Saturday
night. High pressure will build in on Sunday and remain to our
north Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Gusty winds are expected to continue through this morning as a
tightly packed pressure gradient aloft continues to produce
strong winds aloft. As brief high pressure works into the area
and diurnal mixing returns today, winds will gradually mix out.
As westerly winds, though becoming lighter, continue to advect
cold air into the area, temperatures will only lift into the mid
20s across the north and lower 30s Downeast.

Tonight, the next strong storm system will approach from the
southwest in the form of an inverted trough extended north
towards the area. The timing on this feature has slowed slightly
with recent model runs, and precip will likely not begin
anywhere in the CWA until very late tonight. Otherwise, partly
to mostly clear skies early in the night combined with decreased
winds and recent addition to the snow pack could lead to
radiational cooling overnight, with low temperatures dropping
into the lower teens to single digits above zero across the
north, and into the upper teens to lower 20s Downeast. Precip
that moves in late tonight will begin as snow across the entire
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Developing low pressure will move up the Atlantic seaboard on
Friday and Saturday, bringing heavy precipitation to the area
beginning Saturday morning. On Saturday, the upper level trough
axis will still be east of the state, bringing plenty of warm
air advection ahead of the main low, along with a tropical
moisture connection. On the backside of the low, an Arctic air
mass will feed cold air across western Maine. This makes for an
interesting forecast challenge with both p-types and location of
the heaviest snowfall through the day on Saturday. This pattern
will remain relatively stationary through Saturday night, with
a prolonged period of precipitation expected across the state.
Current model runs indicate that the main trough axis will fall
across the center of the state, with Downeast receiving the bulk
of the warm air advection and cold air feeding in from Bangor
northward. The entire region lies under an area of strong
vertical motion through this time period, and with the tropical
moisture connection, QPF values ranging from 1 to 2.25 inches
from north to south are expected.

The variability of the temperature profile across the state is
creating the most challenge with regards to p-types and amounts.
Again, this is highly dependent on the track of the low. Current
runs of GFS/EC indicate a colder and further east solution,
which would move the mixed-precip band further to the southeast,
and also move the heavy rainfall closer to the coast or even
offshore. CAMs (mainly the NAM) are still retaining a warmer
solution, so the current forecast is a blend of these
possibilities. Along the freezing line, snow ratios will be
fairly low, but to the northwest, the feed of the Canadian air
mass will raise snow ratios. Snow totals in the double digits
are likely, and this could possibly be the biggest snow event of
the winter (not that is saying much, this winter)!

Early Sunday morning, models are in good agreement that the low
will move eastward relatively quickly. However, northerly winds
on the western side of the low will increase ahead of this
movement, which will worsen blowing snow conditions. The worst
period for this storm will be during the evening and overnight
Saturday night with heaviest snowfall, increasing gusty winds
with blowing and drifting snow, and rapidly dropping
temperatures freezing any rainfall or wet snow, particularly
Downeast. Gusty winds will continue through the day on Sunday as
the storm continues to develop offshore, so travel will continue
to be impacted and power outage recovery may be hampered.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cooler trend will prevail through early next week as high
pressure will remain to our north on Monday maintaining dry
weather. A new low spawned by the same southern branch trough
that will create the weekend storm will be spinning well off the
Southeast coast and should end up dissipating well to our
south. This will allow for another dry night Monday night
followed by a partly sunny and dry day on Tuesday. Upper ridging
and sunshine will allow temps to rebound close to 40 on
Tuesday.

As mid-week approaches our focus will turn a new southern
branch low lifting into the Ohio Valley with a surface trough
connected to a northern branch low up near Hudson Bay. The
southern branch low is expected to lift north later Wednesday
into Wednesday night. A southerly wind out ahead of this trough
and behind high pressure off the east coast will pull warm air
north. When precipitation moves into our area later Wednesday
into Wednesday night it should be warm enough for rain across
the region. Showers may continue into Thursday before the system
slides east allowing cooler and drier conditions to return on
Friday.
&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mostly VFR conditions will continue into this morning
across all terminals, though scattered snow showers in the St.
John Valley could continue to limit cigs and vis at FVE to
MVFR/IFR until around 12z. LLWS will continue to around 12z.
All terminals will improve to or remain at VFR through today. W
winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 to 35 kts, diminishing
through the day. VFR cigs will continue into the night tonight,
though a rapid drop to MVFR/IFR will approach BGR/BHB/GNR late
tonight with the next storm system bringing SN to +SN into the
area after 06z. W winds around 10 kts tonight will become light
and variable with low pressure entering the area.


SHORT TERM:

Saturday...IFR to LIFR south. MVFR early, becoming IFR then
LIFR north. Freezing rain possible at BGR and across Interior
Downeast. E wind becoming NE in the north. SE winds across
Downeast. Gusts to 30 mph mainly along the coast.

Saturday night...LIFR to IFR. N wind, gusting to 40 mph late.
Blowing snow reducing vis particularly in the north.

Sunday...Primarily VFR, possible periods of MVFR or IFR in
blowing snow. NW winds gusting to 40 mph.

Sunday night...VFR. N wind 10 to 20 mph.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. NE wind 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters through
early this morning, with gusts dipping below 40 kts through the
morning. Seas 8 to 10 ft on the coastal waters and 3 to 6 ft on
the intracoastal waters tonight. Winds will quickly diminish
below Gale force by mid morning on the intracoastal waters. For
the coastal waters, winds will maintain gale force into the
afternoon. Conditions will continue to improve into tonight
with wind gusts dipping below 25 kts and seas below 5 ft through
the night.


SHORT TERM: Winds increasing to gale force again on Saturday and
lasting through Tuesday. Gale force winds will reach a peak near
45 kts Sunday evening and night with gusty northerly winds.
Strongest winds will remain mainly off shore. Seas will build to
near 10 feet on Saturday and remain there through the end of the
short term. Waves on Saturday will have a southerly component,
but winds will switch to be northerly late Saturday night
causing confused seas before a more northerly swell builds late
Sunday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning
     for MEZ001-016-017.
     Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     MEZ002>006-010-011-015-031-032.
     Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
     night for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-051.
     Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF/Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/LF
Marine...AStrauser/LF


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