Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 230117
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
917 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight. Dry conditions will
return for Saturday and remain in place through the day on
Monday. The next system will move in Monday night through
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Latest radar imagery depicts quite a bit of reflectivity
through the region as rain continues to fall ahead of the cold
frontal boundary off to our west. Rain will continue for the
next several hours before tapering off around and after midnight
from west to east. Calm to light winds will quickly pick up
behind the frontal boundary as the gradient tightens
considerably and the stronger cold air advection regime takes
over. Anticipating winds out of the north around 10 to 15 MPH
sustained with gusts up to 25 MPH as we go through the overnight
hours into Saturday morning.

Daytime highs today underperformed thanks to northerly flow and
decent cloud cover. Therefore, temperatures are in the upper 30s
to low 40s across the region at the time of this writing.
Overnight lows fall to the mid/low 30s across the region, but by
the time subfreezing thermal profiles arrive, precipitation will
have tapered off for the most part. Therefore, not anticipating
anything other than a cold rain and possibly a brief rain/snow
mix for some isolated areas.
___

Previous discussion-> Rain has overspread the region. A cold
front will move through tonight. As the front moves through
temperatures will drop and winds will pick up. Wind gusts to 30
mph will be possible. Rain chances will decrease late in the
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Any remaining precipitation will quickly move out of the area
during the morning hours on Saturday. Gusty winds will continue
through the day, however the highest gusts up around 30 mph will
be in the morning. Increased cloud cover from the blend for the
day on Saturday with CAA cu. With CAA temperatures will be in
the upper 30s to around 50.

Skies will clear out for Saturday evening into Saturday night.
Winds will decrease. With cool airmass in place and good
radiational cooling, temperatures are expected to drop into the
low to middle 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level pattern will become quite amplified early in the period
as energy diving down the west coast carves out a long wave trough.
Various pieces of energy will lift out of the long wave as it slowly
migrates eastward. At the surface, high pressure over the region on
Sunday will push off to the east with robust southerly flow
occurring between the departing high and the approaching system.
This will result in a quick warm up with temperatures well into the
60s and possibly some lower 70s on Monday.

Showers will spread into the area late Monday night and continue
eastward on Tuesday as a substantial short wave pivots through the
region. After this passes, focus will then shift back west closer to
an approaching cold front. The front will sweep across the forecast
area on Tuesday night. Once it clear, showers will come to an end.
Temperatures will be mild prior to the frontal passage, although
with a narrowed diurnal range due to clouds and precipitation.

The upper trough will deamplify and become more progressive in the
latter part of the week. Another surface high will build in through
Thursday and move east by Friday. This will bring dry conditions.
Temperatures will be near normal until Friday when it will start
warming.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure system currently moving into the region this
evening, with the low center over western Kentucky. Rounds of
light to moderate rain will continue to fall and taper off west
to east shortly around/after midnight as the system moves off to
the northeast.

VFR conditions in place at the start of the period soon degrade
into MVFR as CIGs lower rapidly to below 3k ft. Sites in the
north may have periods of low end MVFR and even IFR CIGs during
the early morning hours. CIGs quickly improve late morning as
dry air moves into the region and cold air advection cu will
remain in place through the afternoon.

Current winds are calm to light out of the north but this will
soon change after the system`s cold front sags down through the
region. Anticipating winds to pick up around 08Z-ish to 10-15
knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Gusty winds remain in
place throughout the morning hours Saturday into early afternoon
hours before decreasing in intensity.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts and MVFR conditions possible Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM.../CA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA


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