Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 290733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.Short Term...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Flash Flooding Continuing Early This Morning...

The main concern for early this morning will be the continuing flash
flood threat across portions of southern IN and north central KY. As
of 3 AM thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall were training across
the counties on either side of the Ohio River. Numerous reports of
flooding with roads closed and a few cars stranded with rescues have
been received this morning. The main area of rain has shifted to
just south of where current flash flood warnings currently are, so
more warnings may be warranted this morning. However, back to the
west thunderstorms with torrential rainfall are becoming more
scattered and less continuous, so the threat should diminish
somewhat as we head towards dawn.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the morning hours after
sunrise, but the area of rain is expected to lift to the north as we
head towards mid day. Skies will become partly cloudy today to
mostly sunny. We will be solidly in the warm sector today with
continuing southerly winds and warm air advection. High temperatures
will rise into the mid to upper 80s today. Soundings do show plenty
of instability this afternoon, but there will be a bit of a cap and
little trigger in the warm sector so will keep the forecast mainly
dry today except closer to the warm front over portions of southern
IN. With the high instability, if any storms do develop, they could
become strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail.

Tonight will be similar to this afternoon with just a small chance
for storms in southern IN. Low temps will again be on the warm side
only dropping into the upper 60s to around 70.

For Sunday, a low pressure system will start to eject northeast out
of the Plains. A line of showers and storms will develop to our west
ahead of the cold front associated with this system. These storms
will start to move into areas west of I-65 late in the afternoon.
Heavy rain and gusty winds will be possible with these storms.


.Long Term...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...Another Round of Heavy Rain and Some Severe Potential Late

Showers and storms ahead of a cold front associated with a low
pressure system will continue to cross the region on Sunday evening
into the overnight hours. Soundings do show some instability and
strong wind shear and helicity. However, they are also very
saturated. Therefore some strong storms will be possible with this
system with damaging winds. Very heavy rainfall will be possible as
well so flash flooding may again be a concern. These storms should
be out of the area by mid day on Monday.

We will have a period of dry and cooler weather Monday night through
Tuesday evening. A deepening trough will then approach from the west
and move through. This looks to become a cutoff low across the
Tennessee Valley through the end of the work week. Rain and a few
thunderstorms will be possible off and on from Wednesday through the
end of the week with this system. It will also bring much cooler
temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in 40s for the end of
the week.


.Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue along a warm front roughly
along and north of the Ohio River. Prevailing VFR expected at SDF,
but a dip to MVFR looks likely in a heavier shower. Showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the area until mid-morning or so. The
surface warm front will slowly push into Indiana on Saturday. Expect
ceilings to improve and scatter out somewhat during the afternoon.

Winds will initially be out of the north at SDF early this morning
due to outflow from numerous thunderstorms across southern Indiana.
After a period of variable winds, expect prevailing southerly flow
during the day on Saturday. Winds will remain breezy, with southerly
gusts of 20-25 kts expected, especially from late morning on.


Issued at 830 AM EST Fri Apr 28 2017

Temperature and rainfall records for the weekend:

            4/29 Warm L   4/29 Record H   4/30 Warm L  4/30 Record H
Louisville   67 (1951)      89 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1894)
Lexington    67 (1899)      86 (1899)      70 (1899)    91 (1942)
Bowling G.   67 (1899)      91 (1894)      68 (1899)    92 (1942*)
Frankfort    63 (1899)      89 (1914)      66 (1910)    91 (1942)

            4/29 Rainfall 4/30 Rainfall
Louisville   2.02" (1927)   2.37" (1983)
Lexington    1.31" (2014)   3.21" (1909)
Bowling G.   2.40" (1912)   3.00" (1911)
Frankfort    2.20" (2002)   2.62" (1909)


IN...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for

KY...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for



Short Term...EER
Long Term...EER
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