Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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000
FXUS63 KLMK 031906
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2015

...Flash Flood Potential Continues Through Tonight...

A 5H shortwave trof reaching from the Great Lakes to the southern
Plains will sweep slowly eastward tonight. As this disturbance
encounters very moist, slightly unstable air it will generate
scattered showers and storms. Coverage should slowly decrease
overnight as instability decreases, but we may hold on to at least
scattered showers through the night thanks to that wave as well as a
broad synoptic surface boundary and local boundaries from earlier
convection. Because the ground is so wet, and considering the
rainfall rates we saw this afternoon, after chatting with JKL have
decided to extend most of the Flash Flood Watch through tonight. As
coverage decreases, we may be able to cancel it early. Speaking of
which, we will let the northeast corner of the LMK CWA (Scott IN,
Jefferson IN, and Trimble KY) expire at 8pm as previously scheduled
since that area has had time to dry out today plus the better
chances for heavier downpours are south of there. Thanks to ILN for
coord.

Tomorrow moisture will not be as deep as the upper wave sweeps much
of the RH to the south and southeast. As we destabilize over the
course of the day some showers and storms may still pop up,
especially across the Lake Cumberland region, but coverage will be
less than what we saw today. High temperatures will be pretty nice
for Independence Day, generally in the 80 to 85 degree range.

Shower/storm coverage will continue to decrease Saturday night as
temperatures fall into the middle 60s by morning.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2015

A weak upper level trough will be over the region at the beginning
of the long term period. This trough will slowly shift off to the
north and east through Monday. At the surface we will be in between
high pressure to the east and a low pressure system to the west.
There should be a relative lull in showers and thunderstorms Sunday
through Monday night. The best chance for rain will be across the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. However, these storms
will be scattered at best. In addition, Sunday night still looks
like it should be dry. Highs through this period will be in the mid
80s with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A shortwave trough will swing into southeastern Canada and the Great
Lakes region by Tuesday. A cold front will approach the lower Ohio
Valley Tuesday, bringing with it a greater chance for storms. This
front will stall out across the forecast area and will serve as a
focus for storms through the end of the work week. In addition, a
couple of weak waves will ride along this front. Scattered to
numerous storms can be expected through Thursday night in
association with these disturbances. A few strong storms may be
possible with this activity, but the main concern could become
flooding once again as grounds are already saturated from rounds of
rain this week.

Highs look to be a bit cooler this week with temps topping out in
the lower to mid 80s. Lows will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2015

Showers and a few thunderstorms have begun to sprout across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky ahead of an approaching 5H shortwave
trof and along an east-west surface boundary. Thunderstorm coverage
is expected to increase this afternoon as instability increases.
Some training of storms will be possible, so, if a line of storms
sets up directly over an airport there could be an extended period
of time below VFR in heavy downpours.

Convection coverage will gradually decrease tonight. The decrease
may be rather gradual, and we may hold on to a few showers
throughout the night. Ceilings are expected to lower once again in
the very moist atmosphere, and some light vsby reductions will be
possible especially at BWG.

Stubborn upper troffing will remain overhead and the wavy surface
boundary will still be in the area, but both features will be weak
and there won`t be quite as much moisture in the column, resulting
in lower shower/storm coverage.

Winds will be chaotic throughout the TAF period, but will be on the
light side (outside of thunderstorms).

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR KYZ032.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR KYZ023>031-
     033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR INZ078-079.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR INZ076-077-083-
     084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........13





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