Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 221830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
230 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Past these next few hours, the rest of the forecast looks great for
late August and for outdoor activities. But first, we have to deal
with a cold frontal passage and the storms developing ahead of it in
a fairly humid airmass. Will be dropping parts of the watch in
increments over the next few hours as we stabilize behind it. Cannot
rule out some development behind the northern do have some
outflow boundaries that could spark a second round over southern
Indiana closer to the front. That front should be through our region
by late evening, with northwest winds bringing in pleasant weather.

Wednesday, high pressure will settle into the mid-MS valley. Highs
should be in the 70s for many locations, nearly 10 degrees below
normal. Temperatures Wed. night under light winds should fall to
the 50s.


.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

That surface high should shift north of the region and keep us dry
at least into the weekend. The GEM starts bringing in some tropical
moisture from the south Sunday, whereas the GFS/00Z Euro hold back
that precip till the Mon/Tue time frame. 00Z GEFS ensemble holds
things back till Sun. night, so will lean in that direction as well
and keep rain chances limited to just the far southern KY.

Temperatures for the week look to remain below normal, perhaps
allowing us to have our first solidly below normal month in quite a


.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Bands of showers and thunderstorms orinted NE to SW have developed
out ahead of a cold front. As of this writing, the cold front was
still draped from northern Indiana back through central IL/MO. The
main aviation impact through early evening will be gusty SW winds
and an occasional thunderstorm with associated vsbys drops. Vsbys
will likely drop to IFR in heavier showers. Although prevailing
winds are southwest ahead of the cold front, localized winds may
shift westerly or even northwesterly after an individual band moves
through. Occasional gusts to around 20 kts are expected through
early evening as well.

As convection moves out late tonight into Wednesday morning, MVFR
stratus is likely to develop at BWG/LEX until the low level moisture
can clear the state. The rest of Wednesday looks dry and VFR, with
scattered cumulus and a 5-8 kt northerly wind.




Short Term...RJS
Long Term...RJS
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