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000
FXUS61 KLWX 280014
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
814 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the area by Sunday bringing a
significant warm up heading into early next week. The next
chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a series of
cold fronts Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As we progress through the evening hours, another round of
showers may slide across the region from the west. Again, most
guidance tears this band apart, and I am inclined to buy that
trend as the energy associated with that band of showers is a
bit weaker. Still, a spotty shower or two is possible mainly
along and west of the Blue Ridge/north of US-50.

Cloud cover will gradually decrease through daybreak. Lows
tonight will be mild in the 50s. Any breaks in the clouds could
lead to patchy fog, especially over northern MD/eastern WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Well above normal temperatures Sunday into Monday as a deep ridge
moves across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Highs are forecast
to reach the low to mid 80s Sunday, then mid to upper 80s Monday
with a few spots hitting 90F. Even in the mountains, highs are
forecast to reach the 70s both days. A couple of climate sites
could tie or be near their daily record highs for April 30 /
Monday. Very mild overnight lows mostly in the 60s, with 50s in
the mountains. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain off the southeast coast Tuesday while a
cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A lee trough will likely
be situated across the local area. Showers, and eventually
thunderstorms, will develop across the area in response to the
surface features and a shortwave trough aloft. With dew points only
around 60F, instability will be on the weaker side of the spectrum.
Bulk shear values around 30 kt would support some strong storms if
enough instability can develop. Increasing clouds may knock a few
degrees off temperatures, but it will still be very warm with highs
in the mid 80s to around 90. Some showers and storms could linger
into the night depending on the timing of the forcing.

The front will likely push through the area by Wednesday and the
influence of high pressure in New England will likely stabilize the
area. However, temperature/dew point contrast behind the front won`t
be high, with highs still well above normal in the upper 70s to mid
80s. What`s left of the front will lift back northward Thursday in
response to low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Thursday
should be dry for most of the area as forcing remains to the west.

Timing of the system`s progression then becomes more uncertain.
Therefore a chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain well above normal
during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions return by mid evening and remain in place
through Monday as high pressure builds across the region. An
exception may be a period of fog near CHO/MRB 07z-14z Sunday.
Winds vary between southwest to west at around 5-10 knots Sunday
through Monday.

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening ahead of a cold front. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 kt
are possible Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected
Wednesday and Thursday with light winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly channeling is producing SCA conditions this evening,
mainly in the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay. Some
surrounding tidal rivers and bays on the Eastern Shore could see
SCA winds this evening, so expanded the SCA a couple zones.

High pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday, keeping
winds below SCA levels. Winds vary from southwest to west at or
around 10 knots.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible Tuesday in southwest flow.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening, which could bring strong wind gusts. High pressure will
likely provide lighter winds Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal anomalies continue to be on the decrease at this time, so
no further tidal flooding is expected over the next several
high tide cycles for most areas. DC SW Waterfront could
perhaps could be close during the Sunday morning high tide, but
the trend is certainly down at this time.

A steady southwest flow could bring some water up the Chesapeake
Bay early in the week, but it isn`t the most favorable direction
to cause tidal issues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record to record warmth is possible on Monday afternoon.
Below is a list of record high temperatures for April 29th, and
the year the record was set.

                                       Apr 29th
Climate Site                  Record High     Forecast High
Washington-National (DCA)     91F (2017+)     90F
Washington-Dulles (IAD)       89F (2017)      89F
Baltimore (BWI)               91F (1951)      88F
Martinsburg (MRB)             93F (1974)      85F
Charlottesville (CHO)*        92F (1974)      88F
Hagerstown (HGR)*             90F (1974)      87F
Annapolis (NAK)*              92F (1974)      83F

+ denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted
  year is the most recent
* denotes sites where Record Event Reports (RERs) are not issued

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>533-537-
     540-541.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KRR
NEAR TERM...DHOF/CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL/KRR
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/CJL
MARINE...ADS/DHOF/CJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CJL/DHOF
CLIMATE...CJL/DHOF