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000
FXUS64 KOHX 252339
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
639 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A beautiful day is shaping up with mostly sunny skies this
morning and temperatures well into the 60`s at this time. These
temperatures will continue to warm underneath plenty of sun, and
highs should reach into the mid-70`s. Cloud cover will return
though as a look at satellite shows abundant clouds associated
with a shortwave to our west. Meanwhile, surface observations
show a warm front to our south over central MS and AL. This
shortwave and warm front will move through the area tonight and
into Friday morning, resulting in scattered showers. Rain totals
should remain light with most likely not seeing more than a few
hundredths of an inch. With little instability, chances of
thunderstorms are low as well.

Rain should come to an end by late Friday morning or early
afternoon with the remainder of the day being nice as high
temperatures continue their warming trend into the upper-70`s to
low-80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An overall quiet pattern for Middle TN looks to set up this
weekend as ridging builds overhead, allowing temperatures to warm
into the mid-80`s. A strong upper-level low over the Great Plains,
however, will make for a decent pressure gradient which will cause
breezy winds this weekend. Strongest winds are expected on
Saturday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times.

The upper-level ridge moves east early next week, allowing for a
weak front to move through the area Monday and into Tuesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase with this front. But the
severe weather threat still looks low with CAPE values less than
500 J/kg, weak mid-level lapse rates, and little shear.

Slight rain chances may persist into the middle of next week with
a few additional weak disturbances tracking through the area. But
the severe weather risk still looks low as we head into early May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

VFR conditions anticipated at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Band of showers along the Tennessee River should continue
spreading east. However, there is a substantial layer of dry air
around 800 mb. Showers are diminishing in coverage as they spread
east, and anticipate this band of showers becoming more broken to
scattered as it spreads slowly to the east. Therefore, other than
a VCSH mention at KCKV, removed any mention of rain at the TAF
sites due to a low probability of impact. This may need to be
adjusted as showers spread east, but for now, felt that showers
will not be the prevailing condition. North winds will give way to
south to southeast winds tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      55  83  67  84 /  30  20  10   0
Clarksville    52  82  66  84 /  50  20  10  10
Crossville     49  73  60  74 /  20  30   0   0
Columbia       56  84  66  83 /  40  10  10   0
Cookeville     53  76  63  78 /  30  30   0   0
Jamestown      49  74  61  76 /  20  30   0   0
Lawrenceburg   56  82  66  82 /  40  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   55  83  66  83 /  30  20  10   0
Waverly        55  84  66  84 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Husted