Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
000
FXUS66 KOTX 161124
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest through the
weekend bringing an extended period of very warm and dry weather
to the region. The temperatures will cool and a chance of
precipitation returns next Wednesday onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Tuesday: The big-picture satellite imagery early
this morning reveals clear skies across the Northwest, as we remain
under a ridge of high pressure. Friday, the Greater Spokane Area
surpassed the 60F mark (61F Downtown Spokane) as did several other
locations including from Wenatchee to Chelan, Methow Valley, L-C
Valley, and Deer Park. This weather pattern will remain in place
through Tuesday as temperatures climb to 10-14F degrees above
seasonal normal. The airmass will be warm and dry through this
period, resulting in near clear skies and dry conditions.
Wednesday through late next week: Tuesday evening we will begin
to see the upper level ridge break down with the influence of a
weather system pushing into the Northwest. While just over 60% of
ensembles maintain a solution of a Ridge centered over the Great
Basin, about a 25-30% group of ensembles highlights a weaker ridge
moving east and a trough approaching the Northwest. By
Wednesday/Thursday there are more solutions showing a trough with
varying degrees of location, strength, and timing. All have the
Ridge pushed east and much weaker, so it`s safe to say our days of
warm and clear weather will once again take a seat and allow for
unsettled, cooler weather to pass through the region.
The temperature trend by mid week next week begins a downward
(cooling) trend for several days with the potential influence of a
trough. While the ensembles begin to move a positively tilted
trough off the northern California Coast extending up into
Alberta, a very weak and subtle change to the moisture profile
will help introduce chances for precipitation. By Wednesday
evening the periphery of the Cascade slopes, northern mountains,
north Idaho, Spokane to Coeur d`Alene all carry 20-40% chance for
measureable precipitation while the Basin is shadowed. Confidence
is not very strong for precipitation given this is 5+ days out and
the solutions to break down the trough are just increasing now.
Something to watch. /Dewey
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: A building ridge of high pressure will result in VFR
conditions for local and regional airfields for the next 24 hrs.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HREF shows very
low probability of valley fog tonight. However, there is moderate
confidence of valley fog forming across the ID mountain valleys
early Saturday morning. This will not impact any TAF locations.
/Dewey
------------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 62 39 66 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 61 37 62 39 64 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 61 39 65 41 66 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 65 43 67 44 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 63 36 65 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 58 37 61 37 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 62 40 64 42 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 67 39 70 40 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 65 45 69 45 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 67 42 70 43 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$