Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 252122
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
122 PM AKDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING SOME VARIATION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO ALASKA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE BERING SEA
AND KEEP THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE CLOUDIER WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL. AN EXTENSION OF THE BERING TROUGH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SPLIT AWAY TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AS A CLOSED LOW...AND INTO THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.

A WEAK LOW ALOFT AND THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM
EAGLE NORTHWEST TO DEADHORSE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT.
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE SOUTH TO THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL KICK OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE STRATIFORM RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD TO THE ARCTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH AMOUNTS UP TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL FALL WEST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY.
MODELS ARE EVEN INDICATING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE BARROW
AREA TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SOME LIGHT INSTABILITY FROM MCGRATH
NORTH TO GALENA MAY FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPIN SOME
MOISTURE INTO THE FAR EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL INCREASE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AND NORTH ALONG THE YUKON BORDER. OUT
WEST...A WEATHER FRONT IN THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON
DELTA LATE TUESDAY AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA AND INCREASE WINDS OVER THE MARINE
ZONES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAGLE NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE ARE
SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN YESTERDAY BUT CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN VERY
DRY SO ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE. INCREASED MOISTURE
STREAMING INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ACCORDING TO THE GAGES AND OFFICIAL REPORTS FROM THE NORTH
SLOPE...WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP AND REPAIRS TO THE DALTON
HIGHWAY ARE UNDERWAY. THE FLOOD WARNING AND WATCH FOR THE NORTH
SLOPE HAS BEEN CANCELED. HEAVIER RAINFALL LATE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE DALTON HIGHWAY WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE SAG AND KUPARUK RIVER BASINS...AND WATER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. IN ADDITION...THE
OBSERVER IN FT YUKON REPORTS WATER LEVELS ARE WITHIN BANK ON THE
PORCUPINE RIVER AND MINOR FLOODING HAS ENDED.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ224.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

$$

MAY 15


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