Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 310026 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
426 PM AKDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The ECMF and GFS differ on the strength of the surface low moving
into the Beaufort sea from the high arctic, but they are much more
similar aloft. Otherwise, the models are in pretty good agreement
concerning the features affecting Northern Alaska for the next few
days. We will buy the ECMF solution, a roughly 1004 mb center
about 300 NM north of demarcation point at 4 PM Wednesday, as it
is the deeper of the two, and the GFS is often too shallow with
these things.

The old high aloft, presently centered between the Chukotsk
Peninsula and Wrangel Island, will continue moving west, being
nudged along by a series of short waves moving cyclonically
around the old low aloft centered near Dutch Harbor. The high
aloft remains the key factor in the weather over much of Northern
Alaska, but its importance will diminish, as discussed below. The
low aloft will remain nearly stationary through wednesday, then
move southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. The series of short waves
moving westward over mainland alaska south of about 63N will
continue through tuesday night, though they will trend weaker.

The arctic front is presently diffuse and inactive off the Alaskan
arctic coast. it will firm up and move south as the ridge
mentioned above builds east, crossing the coast tuesday night and
moving south to the Brooks Range crest wednesday night.

a thermal low will develop over the northern interior on Tuesday,
then move south over the southern interior on Thursday as cooler
air moves in from the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The thermal low mentioned above will serve as a focal point for
convection Wednesday and Thursday, with no thunder expected over
the northern interior on Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
no issues.

&&

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

$$

DJH MAY 16



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