Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 082209
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
109 PM AKST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE MODELS
BEGIN TO LOOK LIKE SPAGHETTI AS THE CONTOURS SPREAD CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN MODELS.

WHAT THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER
THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND REACHING NORTH TO THE
NORTH POLE. A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW ON THE CENTRAL ARCTIC PLAIN
APPEARS TO BE THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT OF THE RIDGE AS THE LOW WILL
PERSIST AND ACTUALLY EXPAND THROUGH THE WEEK. THE LOW WILL THEN
BECOME GENERALLY RELATED TO THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
MOVING TO THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY WED
AFTERNOON.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE TO NEAR PRINCE PATRICK ISLAND BY WED AFTERNOON. THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC
COAST TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ONLY LEAVE THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT BY WED
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE THE BLOWING SNOW ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

THEW ARCTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSUMED BY FOG FOR THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE PARTICULARLY WITH THE STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ARCTIC COAST BUT BEING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST CANADA.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF FEB 16


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