Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 042016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
REASONABLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN SOLUTIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

ALOFT...A LONG WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL
TREK SLOWLY EAST TO BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ALASKA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATES NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND INTO THE SOUTHERN COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE THERMAL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG AN OLD CROW TO BETTLES TO THE
LOWER YK DELTA LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG THE TROUGH.

SOUTHERLY GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHTER WINDS
OVER NIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH WEAKENS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER NIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS WITH DAY TIME HEATING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DRY FUELS ALONG THE
NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TROUGH THAT LIES FROM OLD CROW TO HUSLIA TO MARSHALL. MOST
AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE 25 PERCENT. STRONG SOUTH WINDS
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTY EXPECTED IN ZONES 23 AND 226 THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL FROM YESTERDAYS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID
LITTLE TO MOVE RIVER LEVELS OVER THE INTERIOR AND IT IS EXPECTED
THAT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL FROM THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL NOT CREATE HYDRO
CONCERNS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 16



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