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000
FXAK69 PAFG 192014
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1214 PM AKDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPORARY RELIEF IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA IS
ON THE WAY BUT AT THE EXPENSE OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND NEW FIRE STARTS. THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE STATE WILL RETREAT EAST AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER MARITIME AIR MOVE NORTH...WITH THE MOST
PRONOUNCED COOLING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH
WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER YUKON
VALLEY THIS EVENING...WITH THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY SHIFTING NORTH
ON THURSDAY AND EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. THE AREA OF INSTABILITY WILL EXPAND ON THE
WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE
BROOKS RANGE SOUTH TO THE ALASKA RANGE.

FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
THEY ALL AGREE ON A THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CANADA
REBUILDING INTO THE INTERIOR WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING AGAIN. THE
RIDGE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED THOUGH AND IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL BE A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRE STARTS DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY
CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THE LACK OF RAIN AND RECENT HEAT WAVE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...FREEZING LEVELS ABOVE 10000 FEET OVER THE PAST WEEK
CONTINUE TO CAUSE GLACIALLY FED RIVERS DRAINING THE ALASKA RANGE TO
RISE. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO COOL SLIGHTLY BUT GLACIAL RIVERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND POSSIBLY APPROACH
BANKFULL IN SOME LOW LOCATIONS ON THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226-AKZ227.
&&

$$

EWP JUN 13