Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 222159 CCA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
159 PM AKDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A weak low currently over the lower YK Delta continues to produce
snow showers over the Bering Sea and western interior south of
Nome with mostly clear skies noted to the north. Mostly cloudy
skies along with flurries and light snow dominate the southern
portions of the central and eastern interior as the mostly clear
conditions of the northern interior give way to clouds and
flurries moving in from the south. Scattered snow showers along
with mostly cloudy skies and light winds will continue along the
north slope through Monday.

The 12z model suite initialized well against the 12 surface
analysis and verified well against the 18z surface analysis.
Model spread is minimal in both the short range and mid range and
is reasonable in the extended range. The model suite displays good
run to run consistency and minimal differences between model
families despite the usually problematic interaction of the
remnants of a typhoon in this case TY and a Sea of Okhotsk Low and
how they merge southeast of the Kamchatka Peninsula and deepens
as it moves over the western Aleutians.

The GFS, ECMWF and Canadian models all depict a low currently in
the Sea of Okhotsk moving southeast and merging with the
remnants of Typhoon TY southeast of the Kamchatka Peninsula
Monday and Tuesday. The now merged lows undergo rapid deepening as
the new low moves east into the western Aleutians as a 935 to 940
mb low tuesday morning. The low moves rapidly east over the
central Aleutians Wednesday. A strong front approaches southwest
Alaska Wednesday and will bring high end Gales to the waters south
of St Lawrence Island and strong winds to the lower YK delta.
Precipitation associated with the front will likely start off as
snow with 850 mb temperatures around 6 below but may mix with rain
in the lower YK delta. Precipitation is expected to remain snow
over the west coast as well as the western and central interior.

The front weakens rapidly as it moves northeast into the interior
and moves further away from the best support aloft wednesday
however at this time it appears that the YK delta and western
interior south of Galena could pick up 2 to 4 inches of snow as
well as strong winds especially along and near the coast. Given
the track of the storm and the anticipated off shore wind direction
we are not expecting high surf or coastal flood concerns at this
time.

Winds aloft ahead of the storm increase rapidly over the Alaska
Range Wednesday. A strong mountain wave develops late Tuesday and
Wednesday and will drive the very strong winds at mountain top
level to the surface along the northern foothills of the Alaska
Range. Wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are possible along the
foothills of the northern Alaska Range beginning Wednesday
morning. The downslope winds will limit snow accumulations over
the central interior south and east of Fairbanks and will limit
snow accumulations over eastern interior south of chicken.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC OCT 17



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