Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 010011
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FIRMLY OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BUT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE SO NO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

THE SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS A NICE DEEP COLD LOW WILL
MOVE TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY LATE MON NIGHT AND BRING WITH IT DEEP
COLD AIR THAT WILL SINK INTO ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA WITH THE
COLDEST AIR INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THEN THERE IS A
REINFORCING SHOT BEHIND THAT SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUSRUN
ON THE 12Z GFS POURED THIS COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN ALASKA AND JUST
SIMPLY LEFT IT THERE. WE SHALL SEE HOW LONG THE COLD AIR RESIDES
IN NORTHERN ALASKA BUT IT COULD BE QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH OF
TIME AND MUCH COLDER THAN THE COLD AIR THAT DOMINATED THE AREA
THIS PAST WEEK.

WINDS OVER BARTER ISLAND AREA WILL PRODUCE LOW VISIBILITY N
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH SUN MORNING AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST AND THE
GRADIENT SQUEEZES OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

$$

CF JAN 15


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