Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 012008
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...AS RIPPLES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTHEAST
ALONG IT. THE FIRST FEW OF THESE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN
AND DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND TO THE HUDSON
VALLEY THURSDAY...REIGNITING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT A BREAK IN THE STEADY RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE FA WILL BE
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DESPITE THE LACK OF RAIN IT WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY WITH SOME DRIZZLE. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS IS FOR MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT AS CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN
SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATED THE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND NOT LIFT INTO THE AREA. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY MORNING AS THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH. CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORT WAVE AND LOW MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
60 AT KPOU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT THIS POINT NAM/GFS/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORT WV PLACEMENT AND THEIR TIMING
PARTICULARLY WED.

BY MON EVNG GENERALLY 500HPA TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA/SE CANADA. DURING THIS PERIOD A SERIES OF 500 HPA
SHORT WVS DIVE INTO THIS REGION...SHARPENING AND CUTTING OFF AT
500 HPA IN THE E GRT LKS. MEANWHILE A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS
SETTLED JUST WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. FOR THIS PERIOD THE REGION
REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF...AND VARIOUS SHORT WV
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE TROF...AND IN TIME THE CUT OFF PASS ACROSS
THE RGN...PRODUCING WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND IGNITING LT RN OR
SHOWERS.

MON NT THE REGION IS BTWN SHORT WVS AND THE SFC LOW HAS MOVED E
OF RGN. RH DIMINISHES IN THE MEAN BUT THIS IS MAINLY IN THE UPR
LAYERS...AND GIVEN LITTLE DRIER AIR ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS AND WEAK LLVL FLOW...PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER MANY
AREAS INTO MORNING TUE.

TUES INTO TUES NT THE BULK OF THE 500HPA ENERGY PASSES EITHER S
OF RGN OR ONLY IMPACTS THE S TIER. BY WED THE GENERAL THEME OF
BEING IN A WEAK LLVL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MAJOR TROF. BUT
THE NEXT SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH...BUT THE MDLS BEGIN TO SPREAD
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF ITS PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THERES SOME HINT
THAT IN E FCA CLOUDS MAY THIN ENOUGH FOR SOME SUN...FURTHER
DESTABILIZNG THE ATMOS. ITS STILL ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE IN
THE MDLS...BUT SLIGHT SHIFTS IN CUT OFF COLD POOL AND ITS
PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

IN SUMMARY A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS BUT TEMPS WILL TREND
TWRD NORMAL. THE THREAT OF PCPN IS MAINLY PATCHY DRIZZLE MON
NT...SCT- BKN -SHRA OR -RN MAINLY S OF I88 TUES...THINNING CLOUDS
N MAYBE EVEN SOME SUN N. BY PERIODS END THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS
OVER OHIO. THE -SHRA MAY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DIM WED
NT.

SUPERBLEND SHOULD COVER THE GRIDS...WITH SOME REFINEMENT IN PTYPE
(DRIZZLE) MON NT...AND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF -SHRA TUE. THOSE
ARE ABOUT THE ONLY TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE BEST WORD TO DESCRIBE THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD IS UNSETTLED.

WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONE...POSSIBLY TWO CUTOFF LOWS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.

THE PERIOD OPENS UP ONE CUT OFF LOW SITTING SOMEWHERE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN PA OR WV. CSTAR STUDIES HAVE INDICATED WHEN
CUTOFF LOW IS IN SUCH A POSITION...A SURFACE LOW WOULD BE PARKED
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A POTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION
ZONE SETTING UP SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION.

HOWEVER...SO FAR...IN THIS CASE...ALL LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS
INSIST THAT THE RESULTANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEP TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES WHICH ACTUALLY INDICATED "NORMAL" AMOUNTS
OF PWATS OVER OUR REGION MIDWEEK.

CSTAR STUDIES WOULD DICTATE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE AS
AGAIN...NORMALLY SUCH A POSITION FOR A CUTOFF COULD SPELL LOTS OF
RAIN FOR OUR REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LOT OF DRY MID LEVEL
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE LOW KEEPING THINGS LESS WET.

THAT SAID...WE WILL KEEP 30-40 POPS IN FROM THURSDAY TO THE WEEKEND
AS THIS CUTOFF LOW IS ONLY VERY SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...LIKELY OFF THE DE OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATED ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW TO DROP SOUTH
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

THE TIMING OF RAIN AND EVEN ULTIMATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NEXT TO
IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR OUR WAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWS 45-50
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40-45 WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. AT TIMES...IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
CURRENTLY...STEADY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE IMPULSES
NEAR A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH ALL TAF
SITES. AS WE WORK PAST 00Z MONDAY...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL
DIMINISH...HOWEVER TAFS STILL DISPLAY BR/-DZ CONDITIONS AS LOW
CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME LINGERING BR/-DZ
CONDITIONS. AS WE MOVE PAST 12Z MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT EDGES
CLOSER TO OUR SOUTHERN REGION...A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE WILL RETURN SOME STEADIER RAINS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CONTINUING MVFR AND
AT TIMES IFR CONDITIONS. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD...CEILINGS
WITHIN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TO NEAR DUE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES AS THE NON LINEAR FRONT MAKES ITS WAY CLOSER TO OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...DZ.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...TAPERING OFF TO
DRIZZLE. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF HALF
AND INCH TO AN INCH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. OVERALL THE RAINFALL WILL BE
BENEFICIAL DUE TO RECENT DRYNESS AND VEGETATION IS GREENING UP AND
ONLY RESULT IN SOME MODEST INCREASES IN STREAM FLOW.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



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