Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 060230
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICS FROM A FEW
HOURS AGO STILL SHOWED SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS FROM FOREST FIRES
WELL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION FROM CANADA. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS
NEAR BODIES OF WATER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD. HIGHER THETA-E AIR ALONG WITH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AS THE H850
TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE +15C.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS PWATS
CLIMB FURTHER TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES...WITH EVEN HIGHER
THETA-E VALUES. WHILE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
THICKEN...SO TOO WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE WEAKENS A BIT AS THE MID-UPR SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

TUESDAY THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WE BECOME WELL
ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. SHOWALTERS DROP A BIT
FURTHER...LEADING TOWARD AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...
ALONG WITH K-INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S CELSIUS. THIS ALL
SUGGESTS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...THIS TOO
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS SBCAPES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG...BUT WITH A MARGINAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AOB 20KTS. THE SPC
SWODY3 HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND DACKS
INTO A `MARGINAL` RISK. MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S (A LITTLE
COOLER AT THE SURFACE THAN MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIAL SHOWERS/TSTMS). LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 60 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF SUMMER DOLDRUMS...NO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF ANY
GREAT CONSEQUENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND NO
REAL MOVEMENT OF AIR MASSES OR FRONTS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN NEAR-
SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...
EVIDENT BUT LIMITED SUNSHINE...AND SOMEWHAT MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHTS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST
ABOUT AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. HOWEVER...AS WINDS BECOME
CALM AND WITH CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE...RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT
KGFL/KPSF STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR AT KALB/KPOU FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER BUT
FOG STILL POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 3-7 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH LEVELS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 90 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THE
LOWER TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON MONDAY AS A WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID
AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 MPH OR LESS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS THE REGION. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SIGNIFY A CHANGE OF AIRMASS AS PWATS CLIMB
HIGHER ALONG WITH INCREASING K-INDICES. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM/BGM


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