Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 032350
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SNOW TO THE
AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY
MIX TONIGHT...BEFORE ENDING BY LATE AT NIGHT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT KEEPING
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RACE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT DRAGGING THE WARM FRONT AND THEN A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION... ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW LEVEL JET
ENERGY AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT. THE WARM LAYER ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EVEN FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW TO TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 6 INCH
RANGE...AND ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S...THEN SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE
NIGHT TO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. EXPECT CLOUDS
MIXED WITH SOME SUN HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3OS
TO LOWER 40S...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MIXING WE GET WITH THE
WINDS...HOW MUCH SUN...AND IF THE COLD FROZEN SNOW COVERED GROUND
COULD LIMIT THE SURFACE WARMING.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION AND BRING SNOW BACK ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN 6 COUNTIES CONSISTING OF GREENE...COLUMBIA...BERKSHIRE...
ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH ANY
AREAS OF SNOW CAN GET...SO INCLUDING CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THERE COULD BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN
SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ZERO TO 20 ABOVE RANGE WITH HIGHS
ON THURSDAY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COLD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THERE WILL BE A
W-SW FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE FOR SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
OVER THE REGION. SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. EVEN AREAS THAT SEE SNOW
SHOWERS...LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER SYSTEM.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WON/T BE TOO MUCH COOLER ALOFT...SO TEMPS
WON/T CHANGE MUCH. LOWS SAT NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW
20S...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. LOWS ON
SUN NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE TEENS.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO BECOME A BIT MORE ZONAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS
NORMAL LEVELS. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD
APPROACH FOR MONDAY...OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...WITH NO
MAJOR SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS FOR MON/TUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S...WITH TEENS AND 20S AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE
KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH 04Z TO 06Z AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM SYSTEM NEAR JAMES MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. MAINLY SNOW WILL FALL TO START THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 02Z
AND 05Z...WITH OCCASIONAL WINTRY PCPN THROUGH 07Z TO 08Z. PCPN
WILL END AT KGFL/KPSF/KALB BY 07Z/08Z...BUT CONTINUE AT KPOU
UNTIL AROUND 10Z...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM UP ENOUGH AFTER 08Z
FOR JUST RAIN AT KPOU. BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...PRIMARILY DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
CIGS BETWEEN 4000 AND 8000 FEET.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB. BEHIND THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL WESTERLY AT 8 TO 10 KTS...WITH
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...11/NAS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...GJM
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS


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