Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300541
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will continue to approach the region overnight
with a couple of cold front which will cross the region later today
through the evening. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in
Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the system.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 130 AM EDT...Another round of scattered showers were working
once again to the north and south of the Capital region. Lately,
very little if any lighting strikes have been noted with these so
just mostly showers.

For this update continued with showers becoming more numerous
through daybreak as another disturbance approaches our region, out
ahead of a cold front still well to our west as well as falling
heights adding to ascent.

Temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s throughout our
region. They will only drop a few more points due to increase cloud
cover preventing much additional cooling. So lows in the 60s across
the region, upper 60s locally in the Capital region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure sysytem`s cold front is not expected to cross
the area Monday afternoon and evening. With the passage of the
front the humid weather will come to an end. Widespread showers
are expected to be on-going mainly south and east of the Capital
District early Memorial Day morning with chances decreases through
the day as the cold front moves through. With precipitable water
levels remaining high have continued with enhanced wording of
locally heavy heavy rainfall possible south and east of the
Capital District in the morning.

More pleasant sleeping weather Monday night with lows mainly in
the 50s but still above normal by around 5 degrees.

Tuesday will feature abundant sunshine, lower humidity levels and
warm temperatures. Highs will range mainly from the mid 70s to
mid 80s, around 10 degrees above normal.

It will be cooler Tuesday night by a few degrees than Monday night
with lower dewpoints/drier airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be situated off the coast of New England on
Wednesday...and will be slowly sliding eastward by Thursday.  With
this high pressure area close to the region, it will remain dry for
the start of the extended period (Wednesday into Thursday). The
remains of TC Bonnie look to stay well south and east of the area,
and any tropical moisture with this feature looks to avoid our area
as it passes off the eastern seaboard.

With temps aloft rather warm for early June (around 10 to 12 degrees
C at 850 hpa), max temps will continue to be somewhat above normal.
Highs look to be around 80 for valley areas, with mid 70s for the
higher elevations. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s.

A frontal boundary will start to approach from the west for Thursday
night, but the best chance for seeing showers/t-storms from this
feature will probably be Friday into the weekend.  The frontal
boundary will likely become rather diffuse as it crosses the area on
Friday, and it will probably winding up washing out over the area.
However, the approaching upper level shortwave will dig out a
shallow trough over the area for the weekend, which will keep the
threat of showers and possible t-storms in the forecast. Best chance
would likely be in the diurnally favored aftn or early evening
hours.  With the clouds/possible precip and trough moving into the
area, temps will be a little cooler for Friday into the weekend.
Highs will only be in the 70s across the area and overnight lows
will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another batch of rain/showers was approaching as the current VFR
conditions should begin to drop back to MVFR overnight.  Within the
heavier rainfall, as per upstream observations, there will be a
chance for IFR late tonight as we will place TEMPO groups and
monitor trends.  At this time, the best chance for IFR conditions
would be at KPOU-KPSF per the orientation of the showers/rain
tracking northeast.  Otherwise, a light southerly breeze should
prevail overnight.

The batch of showers/rain should diminish from west to east Monday
morning with improvements back to VFR for the Hudson Valley TAFs but
likely lingering within the MVFR thresholds for KPSF due to
favorable upslope and westerly winds.  A cold front is still set to
track across the region from late morning into the afternoon hours
where sct-bkn line of convection may develop.  For now, a VCSH will
be placed until confidence increases.  Southerly winds begin toward
a westerly component toward Noon at speeds 10kts or less.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over the region will continue to weaken as a low
pressure system approaches and crosses the region. The airmass
will remain humid until the system`s cold front moves through
Monday night. With the passage of the low pressure system fair
weather will return Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to
build in with the fair weather continuing through the middle of
the week. The next chances for rain will return late in the week
and for the weekend as a low pressure system approaches.

Minimum relative humidity values Tuesday are expected to range
from 35 to 45 percent with westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high across the region will continue to weaken while a low
pressure system approaches and crosses the area bringing showers
and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values will remain high
and will increase tonight approaching 2 inches; 175 percent of
normal as tropical and atlantic moisture is drawn into the
region. Heavy downpours will occur with some storms.

Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, however the
heavy downpours will lead to ponding of water and minor flooding
of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas with isolated flash
flooding a possibility.

With the passage of the low pressure system fair weather will
return Tuesday. High pressure is then expected to build in with
the fair weather continuing through the middle of the week. The
next chances for rain will return late in the week and for the
weekend as a low pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperature broken at Glens Falls again today.

Albany NY...
May 29th...93 degrees 1931 Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 29th...88 degrees 2012 - Record broken with a temperature of
90 degrees at 146 pm EDT.
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from
January 1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/Frugis/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...


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