Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 241701
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
100 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BRING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR TODAY AND BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
THE WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN PROGRESS. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN OUR AREA...BUT THESE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE DISSIPATING
A LITTLE DUE TO ADDITIONAL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.  A NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WIND AVERAGED 5 TO 15 MPH.

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.
THE 12Z ALY RAOB INDICATED NO NEED TO CHANGE ANY OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

ENJOY!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAVE A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY /SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU ACROSS THE TERRAIN IS EXPECTED/. TONIGHTS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE WITH 40S ACROSS THE
TERRAIN AND LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR THE VALLEY AND 70S ELSEWHERE AS THE
H850 TEMPS REBOUND INTO LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...HUDSON BAY LOW MIGRATING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND
ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RESULT IN SOME
UPSTREAM CONVECTION. CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS OF SOME INCREASE OF HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE...LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND INITIALLY CLEARING WILL
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL OF RADIATIONAL FOG AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S /UPPER 40S FOR THE DACKS/.

SATURDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. TO
COMPROMISE...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OF CONVECTION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ELEVATED LIFTED PARCELS
YIELD DROPPING SHOWALTER VALUES TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AS WELL. WARM ADVECTION...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED.

START TO INCREASE POPS SATURDAY EVENING TO CHANCE POPS AS FA STARTS
TO BE CONVERGED UPON BY SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ONE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A SECOND ONE PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH HAS A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
FA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AS THE SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CONVERGE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. TIMING AND LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS DIFFER AMONGST THE MODELS. SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL
PLACE LIKELY POPS IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH OUR REGION.
THIS LOOKS TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION. HAVE PLACED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
UPPER 60S WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

FOR NOW HAVE A DRY FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

OVERALL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CEILING AROUND 3500 FEET WILL BE INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KPSF AND KPOU AND BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL AND KPSF AFT 08Z.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5-10 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  WINDS WILL BE 6 KT FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT KALB...KPSF AND KPOU AND SOUTH AT KGFL AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL TURN DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH INCREASING
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT.

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE NORTHERLY 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY AND FRIDAY
WITH LESS THAN 10 MPH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
KENX DUAL POL TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS INDICATED ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS OUR
REGION. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE IN TACONICS AND THE
BERKSHIRES...BUT THERE WERE A FEW OTHER LOCALITIES WITH NEARLY AS
MUCH RAINFALL.

THE RAINFALL HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE REGION AND WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND ELEVATED LEVELS
WILL RECEDE AS A COOLER LESS HUMID AIR MASS MOVES IN.

THE WEATHER RETURNS TO UNSETTLE CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE
SATURDAY EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
THAT SOME OF THAT RAIN COULD BE HEAVY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM












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