Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 300856
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING A LITTLE SNOW MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD
FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...RADARS INDICATED SHOWERS WERE WORKING ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA)...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY. SOME OF THESE PROBABLY AREN/T REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
WAS A LOT OF DRY AIR TO SATURATE IN THE COLUMN. WITH TIME...MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS WOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR THESE TO BE SNOW...EVEN THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEY (LOWER TO MID
30S)...MID TO UPPER 20S HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE SNOW SHOWERS
FALL...THEY MIGHT EVEN BRIEFLY BUMP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THIS FIRST BATCH IS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOOK TO
EXIT OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING. THE LATEST
HRRR INDICATED NOT MUCH ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS BATCH.
HOWEVER...UPSTREAM A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DESTABILIZING (INCREASING
COLD ALOFT). THEREFORE...WE FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN...GRAUPEL WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS HINTED BY
THE HRRR. AS IT TURNS COLDER ALOFT...ANY OF THESE SHOWERS COULD TURN
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 2500 FEET LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL LOCALIZED AND CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE. NOTHING MORE
THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH (IF THAT) IS EXPECTED IN ANY VALLEY
AREAS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE NO REAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...EVEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TRICKY TO FORECAST. THEY WILL BE HIGHLY ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE COULD AND BRIEF GUSTY WSW WIND COULD PROPEL
TEMPERATURES PAST 50 IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
92 DAYS. HOWEVER...WE LEAN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND ENOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 40S IN AND AROUND
THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT REACHING 50 OR A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...40-45 HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE WIND WILL BE BRISK OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING 10-20 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD MIX A PRETTY STRONG WSW LOW LEVEL JET
TO THE SURFACE. AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH...THE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
GUSTS 35-45 MPH...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR.   THE QPF WILL LIGHT THIS SYSTEM...WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH...AND IN SOME PLACES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS NOT
EVEN MEASURING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN RESULTING IN A CLEARING
SKY AND A GRADUAL DIMINISHING WIND (AFTER SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
EVENING)...BUT PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

A TRAILING PIECE OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER ENERGY TRACKS SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...POSSIBLY EXTENDING JUST SOUTH OF I-90. CLOUDS WILL EXTEND
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA. WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE. IF THE PRECIPITATION
IS LIGHT ENOUGH (WHICH WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE CASE) WE WOULD
PROBABLY BE LOOKING AT SNOW AT ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 1500
FEET...AND RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE VALLEY WITH VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACCUMULATIONS (IF
ANY) LOOK LIGHT BUT AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATER TRENDS TO
SEE IF THERE SIGNALS RAMPING UP THE QPF (WHICH WOULD FAVOR MORE SNOW
OVER RAIN AND OF COURSE MORE ACCUMULATION). WE KEPT POPS IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
HIGHER CHANCES THAN THAT TO OUR SOUTH.

PROJECT HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 40-45 IN THE VALLEYS (POSSIBLY
HIGHEST NORTH OF ALBANY WHERE THE CLOUDS WILL BE THE THINNEST). HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN...IF
PRECIPITATION TURNS OUT TO BE HEAVIER...THESE HIGHS WOULD HAVE TO BE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES.

THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ON TUESDAY EVENING...LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD BACK IN. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WIND
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK (ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS THAT PICK UP EVEN
FRESH COATING OF SNOW). LOWS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
ALBANY SOUTHWARD...15-20 FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY (AT LEAST BY THIS SPRING
STANDARDS). BRIGHT SUNSHINE WILL BOLSTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 30S HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE VALUES ARE STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE HANDLING OF FAST MOVING
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY DURING THE FRI-SAT TIME PERIOD.

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE U.S...AS THE PERSISTENT POLAR VORTEX RELAXES AND
REORIENTS A BIT FURTHER N AND W ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAST MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. RIDGING AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD BRING A
PERIOD OF MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THU-FRI...BEFORE TEMPS TREND BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ONCE
AGAIN FALL ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

THU-SAT NT...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK EAST FROM
THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A NORTHERN PIECE
TRACKING INTO CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE A SOUTHERN ONE TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
ONE SHOULD IMPACT OUR REGION THU...WITH A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY...THEN A COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NT OR FRI. THIS SHOULD
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION THU AFTN-EARLY FRI. THEN...AS
THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN U.S...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER/REDEVELOP
LATER FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO SAT. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARIES TRACK FRI-
SAT...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR P-TYPE ISSUES WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT ANY SOUTHERN PIECES OF ENERGY AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH WITH LESS IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
SO...AT THIS TIME...GENERALLY HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD...MAINLY FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW
COULD OCCUR FRI NT INTO SAT MORNING DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS.

SUN...A RETURN TO BELOW...TO POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS
QUITE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF ANY PREVIOUS SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OF SNOW OR
RAIN DEPENDING ON INSTABILITY AND OVERALL PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. HIGHS FRIDAY
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH UPPER 40S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO THE 20S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS
THE REGION...AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS (MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY...WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THERE WILL STILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALSO AFFECTS
THE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE REGION
DURING THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z TUESDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED
AND FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK...SO FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KGFL/KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN FORECAST BETWEEN
09Z AND 13Z. OTHERWISE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IS LOW AND TIMING
DIFFICULT...SO HAVE ONLY INDICATED VCSH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
AND DURING OTHER TIMES OF THE TAFS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 5 TO
10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AT KALB. AFTER THE WARM
FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 8 TO
12 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS DURING MID/LATE MONDAY MORNING.
BY MID AFTERNOON THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AFTER THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KTS. AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...THE SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY...

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK
IN TONIGHT. ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 55 PERCENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 70 AND 100 PERCENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTH WIND AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST BY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL
DIMINISHING DOWN 5-15 MPH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SLOW ANY RISES.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SOME SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE PRECIPITATION. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A LITTLE MORE RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY AREAS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHICH SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON OUR HSA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...
AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY.

A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM/KSL
AVIATION...HWJIV/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


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