Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 180559

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1259 AM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

High pressure will slide across the region tonight. A warm front
approaches Saturday with clouds and the increase chance for wet
conditions later in the day into Saturday night. A strong cold
front pushes through by Sunday morning with rain showers mixing
with snow along with increasing winds. Strong gusty winds and
colder temperatures will occur through Sunday night. Then lake
effect snow will develop Sunday night into Monday.


As of 1240 am, seeing mid/high level clouds continuing to
increase from west to east across the region. Temps have begun
to stabilize across areas along the Hudson Valley and points
west, so suspect we have reached our overnight lows in these

Previous discussion...Earlier mid level cloud deck across
central NYS eroded upon tracking east. Latest 00Z/18 upper air
soundings across the northeast suggest the mid level ridge axis
was still located across west/central NYS, favoring the erosion
of mid level clouds as they enter our region. However, as this
ridge axis shifts farther east after midnight, there should be a
better tendency for mid level clouds to extend/advect into our
region. So, mainly clear through at least midnight, with a
gradual increase in mid level clouds from NW to SE after

As for low temps, with some mid teens across portions of the
western Adirondacks already, have lowered min temps in this
region, as some single digits/lower teens could occur shortly
after midnight, before temps gradually rise in this region
before daybreak as clouds increase, and a light southeast wind
develops. Elsewhere, expect mid teens to lower 20s by daybreak.


Strong to potentially damaging winds possible behind a cold
front Sunday...

Surface ridge axis slides east of the region Saturday morning as
moisture profiles remain quite dry per the average moisture
profiles. Even the latest 18Z NAM is even drier as we will delay
PoPs/Wx a bit longer through Saturday morning. Then strong
isentropic lift and warm advection will occur Saturday
afternoon as low level jet magnitudes climb toward or higher
than 50kts. Periods of rain/drizzle will evolve and some of the
onset wet bulb processes may bring a wintry mix into portions of
the region. However, this should be rather short lived as
strong warm advection will continue to warm the column for
mainly rain. This continues into Saturday night as surface low
and strong upper level impulse approaches as surface low tracks
across upstate NY.

Then strong cold advection with the passage of the cold front by
Sunday morning sunrise west of the Hudson. This is where a
transition toward rain/snow to snow showers and possible squalls
will occur as H850 temperatures drop back below 0C across the
entire region. The main story of the day will be the increasing
winds. Forecast BUFKIT profiles suggest mixing layer heights
climb toward 5K feet where 50+kts reside. Furthermore, per the
forecast trajectories, some funneling down the Mohawk into the
Capital District, Taconics and Berkshires could enhance the wind
magnitudes. At this time, we will continue to highlight into
the HWO as future guidance may warrant headlines.


Sunday night through Monday...The extended forecast opens with Lake
Effect snowfall impacting locations west of the Hudson River Valley.
There is still some disagreement with the guidance on the
orientation of the bands and the favored low-level trajectory. Our
forecast remains close to the latest NAM/GFS with west to northwest
flow, and the Schoharie Valley and west-central Mohawk Valley being
overspread with snow showers late Sunday through early Monday, and
then the band/bands lifting northward into the western Adirondacks,
as the low to mid level flow backs to the west with high pressure
building in from the Carolinas.

Some of the lake effect snow showers may extends into the Capital
Region, northern and central Taconics, and the Berkshires with light
accums. Locations further to the west may receive light to localized
moderate amounts of snow. Lake effect snow showers should end by
late Monday night as the ridging extends northward into our region.
Highs Monday will mainly be in the upper 20s to mid 30s in most
locations, the exception will be the Capital District, Mid Hudson
Valley, and southern Litchfield CTY where some upper 30s to around
40F readings are possible. Lows Monday night will be mainly in the

Tuesday...Mild, dry, and mostly clear conditions will be present
with high pressure building in from the south. Highs for Tuesday
will be about 5 degrees above normal in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will try to stay in place
to our south with a couple quick bursts of energy dropping down from
Canada through the Northeast US. Going with slight chance PoPs north
of the Capital region for now as there is considerable uncertainty
between global models at this point. Highs look to be slightly below
normal in the 30s/40s with lows generally in the upper 20s.


As the ridge axis across the region weakens and shifts eastward
overnight into Saturday high and mid level clouds will stream in.
Clouds will thicken and quickly lower late in the day into the
evening as a strong low pressure system approaches from the west
and rain moves into and develops over the local area. Expecting
widespread MVFR by 00Z and IFR developing by late evening as
clouds lower further and rain becomes steadier and heavier which
will continue through the overnight hours.

Winds will remain very light to calm overnight with a southerly
flow developing Saturday morning. Southerly winds will increase
to 6 to 10 knots by late morning/early afternoon with gusts into
the teens at KALB as flow funnels up the Hudson River Valley. Winds
will remain southerly with a bit of a shift to the southwest and
will increase some in speed and gusts at KALB and KPSF buy


Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Scattered SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Monday Night - Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.


Cold and dry conditions in store for tonight, as high pressure
builds eastward across the region. A low pressure system will
approach from the lower Great Lakes on Saturday, bringing the
next chance for widespread precipitation. The storm system will
intensify Saturday night as it tracks northeast through the
Saint Lawrence River Valley, and will drag a cold front across
our region by Sunday morning. Increasing wind magnitudes and colder
air will filter in by Sunday night, with lake effect snow
developing downwind of Lake Ontario.


No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers
through the next week.

High pressure will briefly build in today before a strong low
pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes Region on
Saturday. Widespread rain may begin as a mix with snow in the
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks but then quickly
change to to all rain that will continue through Saturday night.
A cold front will sweep through Sunday morning with additional
rain changing to snow over the higher terrain. At this time,
total QPF from this system looks to range from a half inch to
near an inch.

A colder air mass will then build in Sunday night through early
next week, with some lake effect snow downwind of Lake Ontario
affecting the western Adirondacks and Mohawk/Schoharie Valleys.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.




LONG TERM...Cebulko
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.