Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 281356
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE LIFTED AND BURNED OFF AND A SUNNY SKY
PREVAILS OVER THE REGION. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING ALOFT AND
DEEP DRY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE TO VERY ISOLATEED AROUND
TERRAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHERN VT...CLOSER TO SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE JUST HOW ANY
THUNDERSTORMS FORM AND/OR EVOLVE. JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE TEMPERATURES...SKY COVER AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY WEATHER
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY (THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK) WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE HIGH...BUT NOT EXTREME (GENERALLY IN THE 60S). AS A
RESULT...BELIEVE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GET TO THE MID OR UPPER
90S IN VALLEY AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 60 TO 70. HIGHS THURSDAY 80 TO 90.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD CLIMB TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 70 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY.

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS RECENT DAYS.

WITH A PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY IMPACT
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. A QUIET
PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
POSSIBLY APPROACHING ON MONDAY. GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE
LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE HEAT. HOWEVER
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH LESS TROUGHINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT THE TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 12Z AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

THEN JUST FEW-SCT CU AROUND 5000 FT EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AT KGFL...BUT TOO SMALL OF A
PROBABILITY TO EVEN MENTION A VCSH IN THE TAF. LESS THAN 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU TODAY WITH A
DECENT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING.

RADIATION FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGFL/KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS
IN VALLEY AREAS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 40 AND 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN
ON TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/GJM
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...IAA


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