Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 191727
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1227 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from a few lingering patches of freezing drizzle
over the Adirondacks this morning, mostly cloudy and dry weather is
expected today with above normal temperatures.  Mild temperatures
are expected to continue for Friday into the weekend.  Although it
will be dry most of the time for the next few days, some very light
rain or freezing rain cannot be ruled out for Friday night. More
widespread precipitation is expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1220 PM EST, Some brief breaks in the cloud cover were
apparent over the past few hours. But latest VIS imagery
indicates clouds increasing again, so most of the area will
remain under mostly cloudy to overcast skies today. With
abundant low-level moisture in place, some very light drizzle
and freezing drizzle will be possible into this afternoon as
temps aloft generally don`t support the presence of ice crystals
at this time. Any precip would be very light and spotty. While
valley areas (such as around the Capital Region) will probably
only see regular drizzle with temps above freezing, higher
terrain areas (especially upslope favored areas of the western
Adirondacks) would be favored to see some light freezing
drizzle.

Model soundings suggest some mid to upper level drying will
occur today, so the threat for drizzle/freezing drizzle looks to
end by mid to late afternoon.

Temps today look above-normal for mid-January with highs in the
mid 30s to mid 40s. The warmest temps will be in the Capital
Region and mid-Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will pass over the
region for tonight into tomorrow. This will continue to allow
for no precipitation, however, still may be some clouds around
(especially across the Adirondacks) thanks to stubborn low-level
moisture trapped beneath the inversion. This low-level moisture
may contribute to some patchy fog formation as well. Overnight
lows tonight look to be in the mid to upper 20s.

Outside the far northern areas, some more sun is expected on
Friday as compared to Thursday, with high pressure sliding east
of the area and a light southerly flow developing.  Highs look
to reach the upper 30s to low 40s.

A weak negatively tilted shortwave will be moving up towards the
region from the southwest for Friday night into Saturday
morning. It will be weakening as it runs into the ridge and
won`t have a lot of moisture associated with it. Temps aloft are
mild with a warm nose around 800 hpa, so no snow expected with
this system.

Despite the limited moisture/weak lift, cannot rule out a few
hours of some light rain for Fri Night/Sat Morning, especially
for southern areas. In areas where the sfc temps fall below
freezing (mainly Adirondacks and high terrain of western New
England), some freezing rain could occur, but QPF amounts only
look to be a few hundredths of an inch. Will highlight this
minor threat in the HWO statement. Low temps look to reach the
low to mid 30s.

Clouds will gradually break for some sun on Saturday afternoon
with continued above normal warmth. Many valley areas will reach
the mid to upper 40s on Saturday. Dry weather will be in place
for Saturday night with a mostly cloudy sky. Temps will only
fall into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure in control Sunday with increasing warm advection.
Cloud cover also likely to increase ahead of an approaching upper
low in the TN Valley embedded within a southern stream negatively
tilted upper trough. Highs Sunday in the 40s but some upper 30s
southern Adirondacks.

Upper low tracks off mid Atlantic and south of New England through
Tuesday and east off New England Wednesday.  Decent consensus from
sources of guidance that there will be considerable upper dynamics
and low level jet energy, moisture advection and isentropic lift.
Boundary layer temperatures will be slow to rise Sunday night but
strengthening warm advection will cause a more rapid rise Monday
through Wednesday.  Our region can warm up a bit better with
negatively tilted upper energy and a strong south to southeast low
level jet but that is still to be seen since mixing to the surface
is not always easy this time of year in warm advection with a cold
ground.

So, the onset of precipitation Sunday night and Monday morning could
be a mix in many areas. Then temperatures warm into the upper 30s to
lower 40s for highs Monday with mainly rain. There could be a
continued mix in the southern Adirondacks where temperatures could
struggle to get into the mid 30s and fall back to near or just below
freezing Monday night.

By Tuesday, many areas should see temperatures rise into the mid to
upper 40s but near 40 southern Adirondacks. A little cold advection
behind the departing upper low Tuesday night could result in
temperatures cooling back below freezing which would change
precipitation back to a mix in northern areas. Coverage of
precipitation decreases Tuesday night and Wednesday with the
departure of the upper low and some flat upper ridging building in.
Temperatures are expected to warm again Wednesday into the mid to
upper 40s but around 40 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some isolated showers and spotty drizzle seen on radar, maybe a
snow flurry. Based on radar and satellite trends, with some
spotty precipitation around KALB and KGFL, have included VCSH
through about 21Z.

Guidance indicates low level moisture remains trapped below an
inversion so clouds should persist through much of the afternoon
into this evening before breaking late this evening into the
overnight period.

Winds will be northwest flow at 7-14 Kts into this evening then
becoming light and variable.

Outlook...

Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No  Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Recent precipitation over the past few days has allowed for
some minor rises on rivers and stream across the region. Over
the next few days, mainly dry conditions are expected through
the weekend. Daytime temperatures will be above normal,
although overnight lows will fall near to below freezing for
most areas. As a result, some very minor snowmelt may occur in a
few areas, but it will likely have little impact on rivers and
streams.

Widespread precipitation looks to occur early next week, but
there are still questions regarding the exact precipitation
type and amounts. The latest MMEFS don`t show any flooding on
area rivers and streams, although some river rises are likely to
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11/JVM
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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