Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281355

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
955 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 946 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Surface high pressure has slipped off to our southeast and will
combine with low pressure across the northern Plains to result in
a strengthening south/southwest flow across northern Michigan
today. Warm advection driven clouds will continue to dominate
across the region with perhaps a few showers moving across eastern
upper and the tip of the mitt of northern Lower later this
afternoon. It looks like a slow climb on temperatures with much
of the warming remaining aloft through the daylight hours (due to
a strong inversion centered at 850 mb per 12z APX sounding. Have
lowered maxes as a result with expected highs only in the middle
40s to lower 50s. Rising temperatures overnight as we get into
better mixing and the inversion eventually breaks down.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Large scale upper ridging spans much of the central CONUS, edging
into the western Great Lakes on the heels of yesterdays compact
short wave now exiting the eastern lakes region. At the surface,
high pressure is slipping through the Great Lakes this morning
with low pressure digging into the northern plains. In between, a
fairly tight thermal gradient resides over the western lakes into
the midwest with strong warm advection underway and thicker mid-
high cloud already spilling into the region. Spotty radar returns
noted across the northern plains/upper Midwest and moving into
western upper Michigan. Here at home, Some clear skies, some fog, and
lake stratus is also spreading into the state off Lake Michigan on
the developing SW flow.

Today/this evening: Strong warm advection develops through the
day (H8 temps rocket to > +12C) as upstream low pressure in the
northern plains moves quickly to western upper Michigan by
evening. Strongest warm advection forcing slips across the
northern part of the state later this afternoon through this
evening, and may produce some light rain showers, mainly across
eastern upper Michigan. Not expecting much south of the bridge.
However, with strong SW low level flow, forecast soundings suggest
a stout saturated surface based inversion develops across northern
lower Michigan late this afternoon and evening, a strong signal
for low clouds and drizzle. Thus, plan on carrying chancy pops for
light showers across eastern upper, transitioning to patchy/areas
of drizzle south of the bridge.

Overnight: Surface low will track into SE Ontario dragging a cold
front into lower Michigan by morning, while strongest QG-forcing
for ascent moves off to the east. Shower/drizzle potential
diminishes overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: 100+ kt northern stream jet max
spans from the Pac NW toward James Bay before buckling southward on
the backside of Wednesday night`s departing low pressure system, now
centered over the Northeast. Mid-upper level ridging gradually
pushes across northern Michigan early this morning before becoming
dampened throughout the day as a well-defined wave rounds the ridge
axis. The aforementioned wave is expected to increase precip chances
locally across far northern parts of the area Friday afternoon/
evening. Another ripple in the flow and associated tightening
baroclinic zone may spark off yet another round of showers across
portions of the area Saturday afternoon-night before high pressure
returns dry conditions for Monday.

Saturday - Saturday night: As Friday-Friday night`s ill-defined
system departs, there could be a few lingering sprinkles or light
showers; however, the main forecast challenge revolves around a
secondary wave set to slide through the Upper MS Valley Saturday
afternoon, tightening a baroclinic zone draped from central WI
eastward through central MI and the focus for additional rain shower
chances locally. Guidance continues to struggle with the placement
of the best precip chances, but will continue with the inherited PoP
theme with the best chances along and south of M-32 Saturday
afternoon into the overnight hours. Slightly above normal temps
expected with highs ranging from the mid 50s north to the low 60s
near Saginaw Bay. Sat night lows ranging from 40-45 degrees.

Sunday - Sunday night: Any lingering light/scattered precip very
early Sunday morning should quickly slide east of the region as a
weak area of high pressure should aid in allowing deep layer dry air
to filter in to northern Michigan. Cloud trends are Sunday`s biggest
challenge with H8 temps of 0 to -2 C and weak NNW flow should allow
for clouds to stick around longest across the typical NNW flow lake
belts while others see their share of broken afternoon sun. Slightly
cooler conditions are expected compared to Saturday with near normal
temps ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s area-wide.

Extended (Monday through Thursday)...

Focus in the extended revolves around an area of low pressure
developing across the southern plains on Monday, arriving in the
center of the nation Monday night-Tuesday. Southerly return flow
Monday into Tuesday should allow for another nice boost to temps
with highs several degrees above normal for both days. The system`s
associated cold front is progged to cross the area Tuesday, but
not before scattered showers develop prior to FROPA across parts
of the area Monday afternoon/evening. Despite limited instability
(perhaps a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE at best), wind fields aloft
are fairly decent with 40-45 kts of bulk shear. With a relatively
amplified system and cold front, any thunder/isolated severe
threat will need to be analyzed as confidence increases.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 605 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Low pressure in the northern plains will move through northern
Michigan through tonight. Ahead of this system, SW winds will
increase through the day and pull MVFR ceilings across northern
lower Michigan.

Some improvement in cigs may materialize later this afternoon. But
lower cigs return again tonight with MVFR and possible IFR cigs,
along with some drizzle developing across northern lower MI.


Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Strong SW flow develops this afternoon and persists through this
evening. Gale force wind gusts a good bet on a good portion of
Lake Michigan later today and tonight. SCAs for the rest of the
nearshore marine areas today through Friday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345>348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Saturday for LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323.

     GALE WARNING from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Saturday for

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Saturday for LSZ321-322.



LONG TERM...Gillen
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