Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 301811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
211 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Issued at 946 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Not a whole lot of change during the past 24 hours or so, with pesky
upper level low pressure still spinning away across the lower Ohio
Valley. Atlantic moisture pinwheeling back west on its northern
periphery still targeting areas just to our south, with pockets of
light rain rotating across southern lower Michigan. Still just
enough dry mid level air/lack of forcing up this way to prevent
nothing more than patchy drizzle and sprinkles. Really don`t see
much change in this idea through the remainder of today, with the
best opportunity for measurable rain remaining where it is
now...across southern lower Michigan. Have trended forecast to this
less aggressive scenario, relegating just scattered shower wording
for areas closer to M-55. Skies, however, will remain generally
cloudy, with just perhaps some fleeting glimpses of sunshine at
times today.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Deep vertically-stacked low remains centered south of Michigan over
the Ohio Valley early this morning. Northern edge of the associated
cloud shield has reached the Straits...with Eastern Upper Michigan
remaining clear for the most part attm. Persistent dry NE low level
flow well north of the low center has kept much of the precip at bay
across our CWA so far. But low levels are steadily moistening up...
both synoptically and as a result of some weak over-lake instability
(delta T`s of around 8-10 C) off of Lake Huron. As a result...cigs
are gradually lowering from east to west...and some very light
rain/drizzle has developed for locations along and south of a line
from APN to MBL.

In the meantime...large area of heavier precip continues to make
steady NW progress into Southern Lower Michigan driven by a strong
vort lobe rotating around the upper low. Latest short term models
still slowly push the northern edge of this feature and resulting
precip into much of Northern Lower Michigan throughout the day and
into tonight...keeping Eastern Upper Michigan dry thru tonight.
Instability remains well south of our do not expect any
thunder development. Increasing clouds and chances of precip will
limit diurnal warming today...with afternoon highs only rising into
the mid to upper 60s. Low temps tonight will cool back into the mid

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

So far the forecast is going close to anticipated with the upper low
from a couple of days ago stalling out across the southern Ohio
Valley. This system is still expected to crawl back northward over
the next few days and eventually track across northern Michigan
later this weekend. This will likely lead to mostly cloudy, showery
and seasonably cool conditions as advertised. Although instability
looks minimal with 0-1 km mixed layer capes of only a couple of
hundred j/kg or less, with leave in the slight chance of thunder
Saturday afternoon into Sunday across southeast zones due to
continuity and the general thunder forecast by the storm prediction
center. The low will finally move off to our east Monday taking the
unsettled weather with it. This will allow for a narrow but slow
moving ridge of high pressure to build in and hold for what now
looks like into Wednesday (a slower retreat would not be a huge
surprise given the blocked up pattern). As a result, the weather
next Tuesday and Wednesday looks really nice. A cold front then
approaches for Wednesday night into Thursday increasing chances for
showers. Temperatures will be near normal this weekend before
trending to several degrees above normal by the middle of next


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Touch cloud forecast at the taf locations tonight and Saturday.
Earlier mvfr producing clouds starting to scatter out across the
north, with low overcast hanging tough over southern areas (KMBL).
This trend should continue for the next few hours, with lower cigs
eventually expanding back north this evening, and especially
during the overnight into Saturday morning. Current thinking is
these will stay predominately in the mvfr range. Light rain
showers will accompany this lowering cloud deck, although impacts
look to remain minimal. Marginally gusty east to northeast winds
to continue.


Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria for much of our
nearshore areas thru today as tighter low level gradient along the
northern periphery of the Ohio Valley low remains overhead. Chances
of showers will increase for nearshore areas of Northern Lakes
Michigan and Huron as a short wave and deeper moisture lift NW into


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ347>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342-



LONG TERM...Sullivan
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