Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 291814
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
114 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

A secondary surface cold front is moving through Central Alabama
currently just south of a line from TCL...to EKY to just south of
GAD. Along/just behind this front, we are seeing winds pick up a
bit with some rising temperatures for a short time. Then, we are
seeing both temps and dew points decreasing significantly behind
that. At this hour, we have temps in the 50s and dew points in the
40s at Haleyville. The front is expected to continue to progress
southward this morning across the area. No precipitation is
expected, and only a few scant clouds should be noted with the
frontal passage if any today. At the same time, we also have a
large upper low spinning across Eastern Conus. Although most of
the cloud cover associated with it will be well to the north, a
few clouds may be noted at times this afternoon and evening across
the far northern parts of the state as it spins. Otherwise, just a
much more pleasant and cooler day overall is on tap.

08

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Wednesday.

Friday will mark the beginning of a warming trend which will
continue into the upcoming week. A large closed upper low wobbling
around over the Ohio Valley will begin to retreat on Saturday as
it becomes reconnected to the Polar jet stream. Westerly winds
aloft around the base of the trough will be associated with a
relatively dry column with deep mixing during the day and strong
radiational cooling at night. Add in the ongoing drought and
minimal soil moisture, and temperatures should exceed guidance by
2-5 degrees in the afternoons with overnight lows at or just below
guidance. This means we have likely not seen the last of the 90
degree readings, and some locations could reach this mark on
Monday and/or Tuesday. Overnight lows will gradually increase back
into upper 50s to low/mid 60s as the airmass modifies and gains
moisture content.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Only
impacts will be gusty northwest winds prevailing around 10-12
knots with gusts between 17-20 knots. Winds will diminish
overnight tonight, with perhaps some FEW to SCT mid-level clouds
moving in from the north.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry and cooler weather is expected through the next 7 days. No
fire weather concerns are anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     51  77  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    51  76  51  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  53  78  55  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  53  79  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      53  79  54  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      53  78  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  54  82  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        53  81  51  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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