Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 271935

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
235 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017


Confidence is increasing now that showers and thunderstorms will
begin to impact the area more tonight than this afternoon, so have
removed the severe potential for this afternoon but added it in
for tonight through the overnight hours as the next system moves
into the region. Again activity will develop north and west of the
area so to what extent will it hold together will determine the
extent of the strong to to isolated severe storms. The HRRR has
been hinting at this for several hourly runs and now the ARW is on
board with the activity. Still some uncertainties with the
activity as it will be outflow driven. As for the models the HRRR
does have the best handle on current activity and again has for
several runs now, so will adjust the forecast to closely represent
the HRRR.


Sunday through Friday.

The forecast for Sunday will largely hinge on the MCS expected to
approach the area from the northwest late tonight. General
consensus from the latest CAMs is that a chance of isolated to
scattered showers and storms will linger for a couple hours past
12Z as an outflow boundary moves in. These would likely be in a
weakened state due to the time of day and the continued presence
of strong mid-level capping over the area associated with a strong
EML. This outflow boundary would need to be watched for additional
re-development of showers and storms later in the day, but latest
guidance suggests it will retreat north of the forecast area by
afternoon. This would leave the forecast area in a capped air
mass with a lack of forcing to break the cap during the afternoon,
as 700 mb temperatures will remain around +10-11C with dry air
also present at mid-levels and the front well off to the west. For
the late afternoon, will leave just a slight chances of an
isolated shower/storm across the northern half of Central Alabama.
If a storm develops in the afternoon, it would likely be strong
to severe with hail/wind given high CAPE, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and 35-45 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. But, confidence in
development is too low to include in the HWO at this time.

Greater chances of showers and storms will come after sunset
Sunday night, more likely some time after the 10pm-midnight
timeframe. A decelerating cold front will move in from the
northwest, extending southwestward from low pressure over the
Great Lakes. Weak height falls will occur as the trough over the
north-central US causes the Gulf ridge to be suppressed eastward,
and the forecast area will begin to feel the influence of the
right entrance region of a jet streak over the Ohio Valley.  This
upper-level forcing will result in cooling at 700 mb and allow
the cap to weaken. Will keep an eye on this late Sunday night
period for any strong to severe threat given the instability still
present, but time of day will not be particularly favorable and
bulk shear somewhat marginal.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for Memorial Day
in the southwest to northeast oriented moisture axis along and
south of the front which will have stalled. These will be aided by
weak shortwaves in the southwest flow aloft to the south of the
strong upper low over the Great Lakes. Strong storms will continue
to be possible, and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.
0-6 km bulk shear values will be marginal at 25-35 kts, mid-
level lapse rates will be weakening, and profiles will be
fairly saturated. Ongoing precipitation may also hamper
destabilization. Therefore, chances of an organized threat are too
low to mention in the HWO at this time.

The forecast area will remain in the moisture axis south of the
old front Tuesday and Wednesday with continued cyclonic upper-
level flow south of the upper low lifting into Ontario. Scattered
showers and storms will continue across the area, with the best
chances around peak heating. For the rest of the week, the upper
low will continue to lift northeastward while ridging develops
over the Plains. A few southern stream waves will try to under-cut
the ridge. A warm and humid air mass will remain in place over
Central Alabama, with continued summertime afternoon scattered
showers and thunderstorms.



18Z TAF Discussion.

A few outflow boundaries and lower ceilings are currently working
through the area this afternoon. These low ceilings are still only
MVFR and will clear ANB and ASN by 20Z. Still waiting and watching
on the thunderstorm development. If it does occur it will be in
the northern sites so continued with VCTS.

The HRRR brings in a nice complex after Midnight into the
northern areas and slides it down as far south as Shelby County.
The activity weakens as it moves across the area so at this time
generally just a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected overnight. Have again added VCTS in at the northern
sites after 6Z.




A few showers and storms will be possible across the north through
Sunday, but most areas will remain warm and dry. The best rain
chances hold off until Sunday night into Monday when the next
upper level system and surface front approach. Critical fire
weather conditions are not expected.


Gadsden     68  86  69  81  65 /  40  40  60  60  40
Anniston    70  87  69  83  66 /  30  30  50  60  40
Birmingham  73  88  71  83  68 /  40  40  60  60  50
Tuscaloosa  73  89  71  84  67 /  30  30  60  70  50
Calera      72  88  71  83  67 /  20  20  60  70  50
Auburn      70  87  71  84  68 /  10  10  30  60  30
Montgomery  73  90  73  87  68 /  10  10  30  60  40
Troy        70  90  71  86  67 /  10  10  20  60  20




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