Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 301741
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and a couple thunderstorms are already
developing this morning across the northern counties, along and
south of an outflow boundary from convection yesterday evening
and early this morning. Rain chances were bumped up for the rest
of the day along this boundary. Scattered development will
continue the rest of the day across the area with PWATs in the 1.8
- 2 inch range and some glancing influence from a broad upper
trough over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Overall risk of strong
storms/microbursts remains low given poor mid- level lapse rates
and only a couple pockets of drier air aloft. Temperatures have
also warmed up quickly across the southern counties, so high
temperatures there were adjusted upward. Heat index values will be
in the 100-105 range in the southern counties.

32/Davis


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Widespread thunderstorms are pushing through BHM and will be
impacting ANB and ASN within the hour. Winds have been behaving
with generally 10 to 20 kts along and ahead of the storms.
Watching another line of storms developing in MS and this will
likely move into the TCL area after 19Z. EET will be in between
the two areas so included VCTS with a tempo after 19Z here as
well. Some patchy fog will be possible after 8Z as well. More of
the same scenario on Sunday.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend. Since surface dew points are
so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be
met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  92  71  92  71 /  40  40  30  40  30
Anniston    73  93  72  93  71 /  40  40  30  40  30
Birmingham  76  93  74  93  73 /  40  40  30  40  30
Tuscaloosa  74  94  73  94  74 /  40  40  30  40  30
Calera      74  93  73  93  73 /  40  40  30  50  30
Auburn      74  93  74  93  73 /  30  40  30  50  40
Montgomery  75  95  74  94  74 /  30  40  40  50  40
Troy        73  92  72  92  72 /  40  40  40  50  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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