Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 301123
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

We remain in a bubble of high pressure, trapped between two systems.
The first is a fairly large trough that is place across the Plains.
This trough continues to generate MCS after MCS for the last several
days. The second is Tropical Depression Bonnie that is currently
meandering near Charleston, South Carolina and will continue nearby
for at least the next 24 hours. Looking at water vapor this morning,
there is an increase in overall energy over the area. This combined
with very warm afternoon temperatures, a few isolated showers/storms
could develop across portions of the area. At this time it looks
like the best moisture will be in the east, or generally along and
east of I-65. Any showers/storms dissipate by sunset along with the
loss of the daytime heating. Not much of change in the environment
will allow lows to bottom out tonight about where they are right
now.

16

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

Central Alabama will continue to be under the influence of weak
subsidence on Tuesday on the back side of remnants of tropical
system Bonnie. There will be a gradual increase in mid level
moisture on Tuesday from west to east, but only isolated storms
expected during the afternoon with temperatures well above normal.
The upper ridge will begin to break by Wednesday as a short wave
trof moves into the Plains states and pushes an upper trof axis
towards the Lower Mississippi Valley region. Rain chances will not
dramatically increase due to weak flow and lift to the south of
the trof axis. The upper trof axis will become nearly stationary
near the Alabama and Tennessee state line due to a cut-off low
over Texas. This pattern will not bring significant rainfall to
central Alabama during the period, but there will be chances of
rain every day. The upper trof axis and cloud cover will help
bring daytime temperatures back closer to normal values Thursday
thru Sunday.

58/rose


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Other than a brief period of MVFR and BR for a few spots, VFR
conditions prevail. Central Alabama will remain between a low
pressure area in the Carolinas and a high over the Ohio River
Valley. Winds will be out of the northwest around 7kts by the
afternoon, and will be light at night.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Look for only low to minimal rain chances through the middle of
the week with above normal temperatures. Rain chances will
increase after Wednesday as ab upper trof axis pushes slowly
southward into north Alabama. There are no fire weather concerns
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     90  64  90  61  90 /  20  10  10  10  20
Anniston    89  66  91  65  91 /  20  10  10  10  20
Birmingham  91  69  91  69  92 /  20  10  10  10  20
Tuscaloosa  91  68  92  66  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
Calera      90  68  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
Auburn      89  69  89  68  91 /  20  10  10  10  20
Montgomery  93  70  93  69  94 /  20  10  10  10  20
Troy        93  68  92  65  93 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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