Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 221150 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
650 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016
For 12Z Aviation.
Today and tonight.
Early this morning, surface high pressure extended from Indiana to
Texas with still some gradients across the southeast states behind
our recent frontal passage. Thus, although not as gusty, winds
have stayed up some overnight. The surface ridge is expected to
spread eastward today and tonight with the center of the ridge
expected to be over Alabama by this time tomorrow on early Sunday
morning. Thus, we are expecting pressure gradients to relax. As a
result, winds will remain northerly, but should not be quite as
gusty today and should taper off tonight. With the upper ridging
over the Central Plains into Texas today and north/northwest flow
into Alabama, cold air advection will keep temperatures on the
cool side today and tonight.
Sunday through Friday.
The extended part of the forecast looks rather uneventful. Dry
northwest flow aloft at 500mb and high pressure at the surface
will persist for several days with above normal afternoon high
temperatures. The next front could move into the region on
Thursday, but models disagree on the forward progression of the
upper-level trough. Have introduced slight chance POPs for
Thursday, but moisture could be rather limited unless the
shortwave slows and digs farther west as shown by the GFS.
12Z TAF Discussion.
High pressure ridge extending from Texas to Indiana this morning
will shift east today toward Alabama. Will continue with some
pressure gradients before this transition with north/northwest
winds today 7-12 KTS and gusts 14-18 KTS. The highest winds will
be to the east, furthest from the ridge center. Otherwise, VFR
forecast with clear skies.
Note: put AMD NOT SKED on KASN`s TAF as they have not reported an
ob since 655Z and cannot dial them up on the phone. Winds are
their main concern today.
Will forego issuing a Red Flag Warning for today even though RH
values are expected to be slightly lower than yesterday at 25-30
percent during the afternoon. 20 foot winds will be a bit lighter
today, ranging from 8-12 mph. Even lower RH values are expected
on Sunday but with very light winds. However, extremely dry
ground and vegetation will continue to promote a much higher than
normal risk of wildfires today and tomorrow.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 68 38 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 68 41 79 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 69 45 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 71 41 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 70 44 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 69 45 78 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 72 43 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 70 41 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 0