Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 041725 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND DRY ONE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS DRY WITH PWS AROUND 1
INCH. AS WE WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON..DEWPOINTS
WILL MIX OUT INTO THE 60S...KEEPING HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE. THERE IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE
ON THE FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND
HAVE INCLUDED A 10 POP FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. AS SHOWERS/STORMS TAP INTO THE DRIER AIR ALOFT...A
STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A SCATTERED CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHT NORTH WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROF PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH ALABAMA BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

NUMERICAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY..SO TODAY MAY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH 100 DEGREES LIKELY AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT THAT WILL MIX DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
CLOSE TO AIR TEMPERATURES. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT STILL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW
1.5 INCHES...SO AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED IN AREAL
COVERAGE. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
APPROACH 2 INCHES...AND A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
OF ALABAMA. THIS IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA...WITH LESSER COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE ACTIVITY WILL
LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH ALABAMA.
THE MODELS SHOW A WEAKER UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

BY SATURDAY MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORT WAVE TROF. THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH DRY
AIR AS THE CANADIAN OR GFS MODELS...AND KEPT A CHANCE OF RAIN AS
FAR NORTH AS I-20. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THE GFS KEEPS ALL THE RAIN SOUTH OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA AS IT EXPANDS TEXAS RIDGE EASTWARD. THE ECMWF
MODEL DOES NOT EXPAND THE RIDGE LIKE THE GFS...AND IT HAS MORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH.
TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO RAIN CHANCES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     97  72  95  72  89 /   0  10  30  30  60
ANNISTON    98  72  95  72  90 /  10  10  30  20  60
BIRMINGHAM  98  75  96  74  91 /   0  10  30  30  60
TUSCALOOSA 100  74  98  73  92 /  10  10  30  30  50
CALERA      97  72  95  71  90 /   0  10  30  20  50
AUBURN      96  73  94  72  89 /  10  10  30  20  40
MONTGOMERY 100  74  97  75  93 /  10  10  30  20  40
TROY        99  73  96  73  90 /  10  10  40  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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