Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KBMX 230945
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Much of the state will be sunny today as high pressure remains in
control. This high pressure will keep the bulk for the tropical
moisture that is in place across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
from making it into the area. Will generally see some cloud cover
across the southeast. There is a slight chance that areas in the
far southeast may see a brief shower, but too low to mention at
this update. By this evening the drier airmass will push any
moisture further south and east with generally clear skies by
midnight across all of the region. Lows will be in the low 30s
north to low 40s south. Also, now that Thanksgiving Day is here,
the frost/freeze program for Central Alabama has ended. A PNS will
be issued later this morning with more details in regards to
this, so look for that statement later.

16

.LONG TERM...
Friday through Thursday.

Prospects for appreciable rainfall through the extended part of
the forecast look rather slim due to persistent north to northwest
flow aloft. An embedded shortwave will bring a cold front our way
on Saturday into Saturday night, but moisture appears insufficient
for rainfall at this time. Temperatures should be noticeably
cooler on Sunday with highs 3-6 degrees lower than Saturday.
Widespread low to mid 30s are expected for morning lows on Monday
as high pressure moves into the region. A warming trend should
begin on Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday and Wednesday
due to rising heights in advance of an upper-level trough in the
Plains. This system could bring our a chance of rain Wednesday
into Thursday, but moisture may once again be rather limited.

87/Grantham
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Decided to go a bit more optimistic with the forecast this period.
Still have some mention of MVFR ceilings for TOI.

The latest satellite imagery depicts a positive tilt trough
moving into the area aloft. A low pressure area has developed in
the northeast Gulf of Mexico with a rain shield over the panhandle
into south Georgia. This has increased the pressure gradient
leading to winds around 6kts overnight and into the daylight hours
Thursday. These winds will remain northerly with a gradual shift
toward the east, especially for our eastern terminals.

The challenge will be how far west the lower clouds go. The model
suite, global and Hi-Res, have both come into closer agreement
this run. There will be a rather sharp pivot point across eastern
Alabama. Areas west of this pivot point will be mostly clear while
east of this point will have a chance of MVFR ceilings. At this
time, will keep mention at TOI. It appears they may be close to
ANB but will keep them east for now. The 925-850 trough axis
remains close to Alabama and the moisture will be just east of
this axis. Fog will not be an issue due to non-zero winds and dew
point depressions of several degrees.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The forecast features dry conditions and near normal temperatures
through the weekend and into early next week. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  35  63  40  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    62  38  64  42  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  60  39  64  44  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  60  34  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      61  36  64  42  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      62  42  64  44  64 /  10  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  64  41  67  43  66 /  10   0   0   0   0
Troy        65  42  67  43  66 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.