Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 230457
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY RESIDES ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION. A LOT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
STORMS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS AND INTERSECTIONS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH AIR PARCELS
PAST THE LFC...WHICH WAS ONLY MEASURED AT AROUND 3800 FEET BASED
ON THE 00Z KBMX SOUNDING. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THAT
LFC...AND MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH WITH PWATS OF 1.99 INCHES.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT WHERE THOSE BOUNDARIES
ARE COLLIDING...THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THIS EVENING...AND MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED THERE. UPDATES
ARE OUT.

56/GDG


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WILL KEEP FORECAST CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/BR DEVELOPING WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA WAS GENERALLY CLEAR. INCREASED THE FOG RESTRICTIONS SOUTH
TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES BECOMING A LOW CLOUD DECK. IT APPEARS
THERE WILL STILL BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ACTING ON COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE A BIT LESSER COVERAGE TOMORROW...BUT
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A CHANCE NEAR THE TERMINALS THAT VCTS IS
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

A LOT OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FIRMLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVING...RETROGRADING UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. SUFFICIENT
LIFT ALONG WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

MEANWHILE...THE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN...SENDING SEVERAL IMPULSES SOUTHWARD OVER THE COMING
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST...WEAKER ONE...IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN ON THE HOT SIDE AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS
LOOKING DRY THOUGH.

THE SECOND IMPULSE IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION GETTING EVEN THIS EARLY.
IT LOOKS TO ROTATE THROUGH ON MONDAY...AND WHILE IT IS A WEEK
AWAY...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD RIVAL THE ONE FROM LAST WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE OVERALL PATTERN SETUP WITH THE RIDGING OUT WEST AND TROFING
EAST WILL STAND FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE.

17/KLAWS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  88  71  86  68 /  30  40  40  60  20
ANNISTON    70  88  72  87  70 /  30  40  30  60  20
BIRMINGHAM  72  89  73  88  70 /  30  40  40  60  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  90  73  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
CALERA      72  89  72  88  71 /  30  40  30  60  20
AUBURN      70  88  71  87  70 /  30  30  20  60  40
MONTGOMERY  72  91  73  90  72 /  20  30  20  60  40
TROY        70  91  71  89  71 /  20  20  20  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






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