Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 011500
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERAL INTERESTING AND IMPORTANT MESO-SCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE SURPRISE FEATURE IS
A POCKET OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.
SOUNDINGS FROM BIRMINGHAM AND ATLANTA THIS MORNING HAVE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES JUST UNDER 1.20 INCHES. THE OTHER FEATURE IS AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL LIKELY HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE MCS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WESTERN TENNESSEE IS WEAKENING...AND DOWNSTREAM CORFIDI VECTORS
SHOW MAINLY A WESTERLY COMPONENT...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS
OF THIS SYSTEM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR MODEL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OR PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS HAVE
SCALED BACK TO INCLUDE MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF I-20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO LOWERED A FEW DEGREES.

DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED LIFTING MECHANISM...
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME FOR TODAY.


58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE ONLY IMPACT TO TAF SITES SHOULD
BE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS THAT WILL HANG AROUND AT THE NORTHERN
SITES THROUGH 14-15Z. SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN SITES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTH...WHICH
COULD ALSO EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND THE OVERALL
SCENARIO IS LOW AND WILL ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME. WILL ALSO
INCLUDE VCTS FARTHER SOUTH AT KMGM AND KTOI...THOUGH THE OVERALL
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS TO THESE SITES IS A BIT LOWER THAN FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.

87/GRANTHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

TALK ABOUT A DIFFICULT AND MESSY FORECAST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SOME IDEA AS TO WHEN THESE WAVES
MAY OCCUR IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST IMPACTS. CUE THE SAYING...NORTHWEST
FLOW...WEATHERMAN`S WOE.

THE CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
INTO AN MCS AND SLIDE SE INTO ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PWATS INCREASE TO 2+ INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT 2SD ABOVE NORMAL...SO
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. NOT SEEING ANYTHING
OVERWHELMING WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST
SYSTEM...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THERE`S SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT COVERAGE COULD REMAIN
HIGH.  THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE DAY`S CONVECTION. ALSO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF
AN MCV DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DECAYING MCS...WHICH HAS BEEN
EXTREMELY COMMON WITH THE LAST SEVERAL COMPLEXES TO AFFECT THE
REGION. NOT TO MENTION THE FACT THAT A FEW MODELS...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND NAM...SHOW SOME SORT OF TROUGH OR WARM FRONT FEATURE
MOVING NE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO ALL
OF THESE FACTORS HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEXT MCS LOOKS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 2 BUT
THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY OF THE MCS. ANY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY COULD HELP STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
EITHER WAY STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WE COULD SEE YET
ANOTHER WAVE SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE A BIT BETTER
SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. DUE TO SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS DURING ANY
PARTICULAR PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF SEVERE IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. HOWEVER IT`S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALMOST EVERY PERIOD AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF AND WHEN CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE THREAT OF
MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WE WILL HIGHLIGHT IT IN
THE HWO AND OTHER GRAPHICS. JUST BE PREPARED FOR LAST MINUTE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SFC RIDGING OVER THE GULF. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL
KEEP MOISTURE VALUES HIGH AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE. FOR
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...IT WON`T RAIN
CONTINUOUSLY SO YOU MAY STILL GET TO SHOOT THOSE FIREWORKS.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  70  86  70  86 /  70  60  70  60  50
ANNISTON    83  70  86  71  87 /  60  60  70  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  84  73  87  73  88 /  60  60  60  50  40
TUSCALOOSA  86  72  88  72  91 /  50  50  60  40  40
CALERA      84  72  87  73  89 /  50  50  60  40  40
AUBURN      86  71  86  72  89 /  50  50  60  40  30
MONTGOMERY  87  73  89  72  92 /  40  50  60  30  30
TROY        87  73  89  72  91 /  40  50  60  30  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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