Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 040921
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
321 AM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WEST
COAST HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN WARMER TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
MID 80S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SE OREGON THIS MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE OREGON...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN SW IDAHO /EXCEPT REMAINING DRY EAST OF BOISE/. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/UPPER CLOSED
LOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY CLOSER ON THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER...ESPECIALLY IN SE OREGON AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SW IDAHO. STILL LOOKS DRY ACROSS THE TREASURE/WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEYS...SOUTH TO THE ID/NV BORDER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTH /INCLUDING BAKER
COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/ WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG /GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM IN SW IDAHO BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER IN SE OREGON ON
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A VERY LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CIRCULATION WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A DRY WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL BE A BIT RAIN COOLED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH MAY HOLD
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT BELOW THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASED MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO IDAHO IN THE EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS...GENERALLY FROM AN EAST OR SOUTH EASTERLY
DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT UP TO 10K FT MSL...SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25
KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION.....JB



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