Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 022039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW TODAY AND SSW
FLOW WEDNESDAY...TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SOUTH FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY. THE AREA WILL THEN BE ON THE EAST FLANK OF THE NECK OF A
CUT OFF LOW...CENTERED OVER CA BY THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POPPED UP OVER BAKER COUNTY TO WEST OF MCCALL AS OF 2 PM. AND THAT
AREA LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ELECTRICALLY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOSTLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM BURNS/NYSSA...OREGON TO MURPHY IDAHO AND
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WAS
REPORTED IN SOUTH NAMPA AT 2 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING - EXCEPT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH THE NV BORDER UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS WILL THEN DECREASE...TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE BLUE/WEST CENTRAL AND
BOISE MOUNTAINS...AND DRY ELSEWHERE. LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
THURSDAY THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES TO AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
OVER OREGON AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DIVES ACROSS CA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL AGREEMENT AND
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. ISENTROPIC FORECASTS FOR BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH ENTRAINING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM BLANCA AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM
THE SOUTH. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS WEEKEND...PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO CLOSE TO AN INCH...SO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH OF A KLKV-KMUO-FAIRFIELD LINE THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
WILL END ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT CONTINUE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...WEST 5-15
KTS. WINDS ALOFT...WEST 15-25 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT


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