Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 210924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...RADAR ECHOES WERE ACROSS NW
NV TO EAST CENTRAL NV AT 3 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WERE EVEN FARTHER
SOUTH NEARER THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHICH WAS OVER CENTRAL CA PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HRRR RUNS UNAVAILABLE SINCE 20Z. GFS AND NAM
BRING SHOWERS N OF THE NV BORDER TODAY WITH THE NAM EXTENDING THE
SHOWERS TO CHALLIS...THE OWYHEE MTS...AND KLAMATH FALLS THIS
EVENING AND OVER IDAHO TONIGHT THEN NE OREGON AND IDAHO MTNS
MONDAY. THE GFS WAS A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER S AND W. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WAS ALSO PRESENT IN THE GFS/NAM SO HELD ON THE
THUNDERSTORMS...GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE ID MTNS
SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL THEN RETURN TO 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TONIGHT /DUE TO CLOUDS/ AND MONDAY DUE TO MILD W TO SW FLOW ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK TO COLD AND WET. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE NEXT TROUGH TILL LATE THURSDAY NOW ON
THE 00Z RUNS. THEN THERE AFTER THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY THUS
CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE BRINGING MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW
IDAHO WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FRIDAY
HAS THE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
THE MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH THE 00Z GFS SLOWLY MOVING
THE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO EASTERN IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF...STALLS THE FRONT OVER SW IDAHO ON FRIDAY AS A
CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER RENO ON SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY THOUGH THE AMOUNTS
AND DURATION VARY GREATLY WITH THE ECMWF BRING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AND GFS BRINGING MOISTURE /FAR LESS AT THAT/ FROM
THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW...ABOVE CLIMO POPS AND NEAR CLIMO
TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING. INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BEFORE 18Z...SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
MAGIC VALLEY INTO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z. BY 00Z...EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTH OF KMUO. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTH TO WEST AROUND 10
KTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JDS
AVIATION.....JDS


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