Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 300837
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
237 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
FROM JUST SOUTH OF ZONAL TO JUST NORTH TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY WEST FROM UTAH TO NEVADA. THIS WILL
KEEP US HOT AND MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN
THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...SO STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS NUMEROUS OR AS
STRONG. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...HOWEVER. BY WED AFTERNOON...MORE STABLE AIR UNDER THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
TO LEVELS BELOW A 15 PERCENT CHANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER NEVADA THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
THE RIDGE DRIFTING MORE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHICH WOULD
FAVOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW FOR THIS PATTERN CHANGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 30/20Z ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER.
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45KTS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KTS IN THE MAGIC VALLEY. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WEST
AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP


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