Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 252156
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SNOW LEVELS ARE COMING
UP AS EXPECTED AND MCCALL HAD CHANGED OVER TO A COLD RAIN SINCE
ABOUT NOON. SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE AT THE HIGH END OF THE
ADVISORY...YELLOW PINE/MCCALL COOPS PICKED UP 6 INCHES WHILE SOME
OTHER AREAS SAW A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AND LOW END ADVISORY
AMOUNTS...GARDEN VALLEY PICKED UP 2.5 INCHES. IN THE FORECAST /SEE
THE NEW WSWBOI FOR DETAILS/...MAINLY EXPECT NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF AN INCH OR TWO NORTH OF NEW MEADOWS AND UP TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
BANNER SUMMIT THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
ALSO BUILDING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OCCURRED SINCE NOON AND LOCAL GUSTS AROUND
50 MPH /DEER HAVEN/ WERE RECORDED. 12Z NAM//GFS/EC AND RECENT HRRR
RUNS CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SLOWER EXIT ON THE PRECIPITATION AND
HAVE BLENDED THOSE MODELS AND RAISED EVENING POPS AS WELL. WITH
WARMING DO NOT EXPECT TO NEED AND EXTENSION TO THE SNOW ADVISORY.
HIRESWNMMWEST AND MODEL BLEND ALSO HAVE MORE CLOUDINESS WITH THE
WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY SO INCREASED SKY COVER AND NUDGED HIGHS DOWN A
BIT FOR THE NEW PATTERN. WE ALSO SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF LOWER
TREASURE VALLEY STRATUS AND FOG /ONTARIO WAS 9 DEGREES COLDER THAN
BOISE AT 2 PM/ AND FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY AREAS EARLY
WED. AND AGAIN LATE WED. NIGHT THROUGH AROUND NOON THURSDAY AS
WARMING ALOFT MOVES OVER MOIST SOILS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN
SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS WITH A
COLD CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A PACIFIC TROUGH CONVERGING
ON THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS PLENTY OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR RAIN
BELOW 6000 FEET WITH SNOW ABOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL ALSO
SEE SOME BETTER OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FOR INCREASED SNOW FALL IN
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY 40-50 KT 700
MB JET. BY SATURDAY THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE COLUMBIA BASIN. MODELS...OUTSIDE THE 12Z ECMWF...REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE BOUNDARY AND COLDEST AIR STALLING
OUT JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 12Z
ECMWF IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION IN BRINGING THIS BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH REACHING THE NV BORDER EARLY SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC TROUGH OFF
THE COAST PHASES WITH A STRONG TROUGH DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA ON MONDAY AND SHIFTS INLAND ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY/MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR CONTINUED
WARM ADVECTION FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR-IFR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KONO-KMUO-KSUN THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED IN SHELTERED VALLEYS
INCLUDING THE TREASURE VALLEY. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY 5-15
KTS EXCEPT FOR 15-25 KTS IN SE OR AND MAGIC VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
35KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FEET
MSL...NW 35-50KT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ011-013.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS/WH
AVIATION.....JS



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