Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 271559

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
959 AM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...Sunny and warmer today with no chance of precip as a
strong upper level ridge moves inland. No changes at this time.


.AVIATION...VFR with clear skies.  Light and variable surface winds.
Winds aloft near 10 kft MSL: Variable 5-10 kts.


SHORT TERM...High amplitude upper ridge along the coast shifting
slowly inland bringing warmer and drier air with clear skies for our
CWA this weekend.  However, patchy fog in the Magic Valley this
morning following yesterday`s rain.  Daily high temps will rise
faster than lows, which will stay cool due to good radiational
cooling in the clear, calm nights.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday. The upper level ridge
remains over the area through the beginning of the extended
forecast. Monday night some moisture can be seen moving around the
ridge, which may be enough for afternoon showers/thunderstorms
develop in the West Central Idaho Mountains. The next upper level
Low can be seen offshore Tuesday night. Differences remain between
the GFS and the ECMWF as to placement of the Low and associated
precipitation. The GFS is much more excited about this Low and drops
it a little further south and shows a bit more precipitation with
it. Both models do hold off on bringing the precipitation into
Eastern Oregon until Wednesday afternoon. The GFS keeps things wet
through all of Thursday and into Friday while the ECMWF dries things
out. Confidence in this system remains low because of these
differences. Temperatures remain above normal through the period
with Tuesday still looking to be the warmest. Temperatures begin to
drop after this as the low pushes in, but still remain above normal.





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