Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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901
FXUS65 KBOI 140326
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
826 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM INLAND
ACROSS NRN OREGON AND DIRECTLY TOWARD OUR CWA THIS EVENING.  AS OF
8 PM MST MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVERED ALL OUR ZONES BUT PCPN WAS STILL
WELL BACK IN OREGON.  AT THE SPEED THE CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING EAST
PCPN WILL BE INTO ALL OF EASTERN OREGON AND MOST OF SWRN IDAHO BY
5AM MST...AHEAD OF MOST OF THE MOS TIMING.  NEW 00Z NAM...HOWEVER
...HAS SLOWED ARRIVAL OF PCPN INTO SWRN IDAHO COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NAM.  THIS ADJUSTMENT SEEMS TOO DRASTIC WHEN COMPARED TO SATELLITE
TRENDS.  IN ANY CASE ALL MODELS AGREE THAT PCPN SHOULD MAXIMIZE
OVER OUR CWA SUNDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT NEWD WITH A WARM FRONT.
POST-FRONTAL WARMING WILL RAISE THE SNOW LEVEL TO 7000-8000 FEET
MSL IN EASTERN OREGON AND SWRN IDAHO SO ALL PCPN THERE WILL BE
RAIN. SUNDAY NIGHT THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE ABOVE 6000 FEET MSL
EVEN IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.  NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO BAKER COUNTY AND THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE
06Z.  PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 06Z AND WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION WILL BRING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.  SNOW LEVEL 4-5K FEET MSL.  SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING WILL
DECREASE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
...AFTER 18Z.  SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO 5-7K FEET MSL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF MOISTURE
MOVING IN OFF THE PAC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
WILL HELP PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW
LEVELS START OUT RANGING FROM 7000 FT IN THE FAR SOUTH TO AROUND
4000 FT IN THE NORTH. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...SNOW LEVELS
RISE AND SUNDAY NIGHT THEY RANGE FROM 8000 FT IN THE SOUTH TO 6000
FT IN THE NORTH. THEREFORE...EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY
HIGH AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...WE HAVE NO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES OUT
BECAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS ARE JUST TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...FOR ANYONE
GOING ABOVE 6000 FEET TOMORROW...YOU WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. IN THE TREASURE VALLEY...EXPECT AROUND 0.20 INCH OF RAIN
...WITH AROUND 0.10 IN THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARM FRONT...EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIP WILL END FROM SW TO NE DURING
THAT PERIOD. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN VALLEY COUNTY AND THE NE BOISE
MTNS EVEN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PUSHING THE MOIST FLOW
TO THE NORTHEAST. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS TO
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS AS A WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE SURFACE
MIXING. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE IN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE REGION WILL RECEIVE
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS WILL
RECEIVE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
5-6K FEET MSL...AND WILL DROP TO 4-4.5K FEET MSL THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM LINGERS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
BOISE MOUNTAINS. MODELS DIVERGE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF AN INCOMING WEAK DISTURBANCE FOR THE REGION. HAVE
GONE WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THURSDAY/S FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
WILL SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY BEHIND IT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB/DD



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