Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251138 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
638 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail
across Deep South Texas this morning. Winds will become breezy
later this morning into the afternoon as low pressure across west
Texas interacts with high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico. VFR
conditions expected to continue through most of the period. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop late in the period due to
increasing low level moisture.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 440 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): A 500 mb ridge centered over
central Mexico will provide subsidence across Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley through the period. The pressure gradient will
strengthen today as low pressure across west Texas interacts with
Gulf high pressure. This will support breezy southeast winds across
the area later this morning into the afternoon. Low level moisture
expected to steadily increase today allowing dewpoints and clouds to
increase across the area today into Friday. Temperatures will be
well above normal through the period. High temperatures today
expected to range from the mid 80s along the coast to the upper 90s
across the west under partly cloudy skies. Increasing clouds tonight
with temperatures falling into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees at
most locations overnight. High temperatures Friday expected to be a
few degrees warmer than today, mainly in the 90s with a few
locations reaching the century mark across the west. Heat index
values of 105 to 109 degrees will be possible across portions of the
area this afternoon and Friday afternoon as dewpoints continue to

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): 500 mb high pressure
centered initially over the BRO CWFA but shifting gradually off to
the east will produce dry weather from Friday night through early
Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
then prevail late Sunday night and through the remainder of the
long term forecast period as closed 500 mb low pressure will drop
into the Baja Peninsula and eject a series of weak disturbances
over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. If model trends
continue to hold, current precipitation chances mentioned in the
latter time period may need to be raised appreciably. Well above
normal temperatures are forecast in association with the 500 mb
high, with these temperatures cooled closer to near normal values
due to the anticipated greater cloud coverage and opportunity for

MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 19 knots with gusts near 23 knots and seas of 3.3 feet
with a period of 4 seconds at 04 CST/09 UTC. The pressure gradient
will strengthen today as low pressure across west Texas interacts
with high pressure across the Gulf. A small craft advisory is in
effect for the Laguna Madre from 10 am to 7 pm this evening due to
winds. SCEC to low-end SCA conditions will develop across lower
Texas Gulf waters today. Additional small craft advisories may be
needed for all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters tonight
and Friday due to the tight pressure gradient.

Friday Night through Wednesday: Small Craft Advisory winds and/or
seas will affect all or portions of the Lower Texas coastal waters
Friday night through Monday due to high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico interacting with persistent low pressure over the Central
Plains. More moderate wind and sea conditions will then prevail
for the remainder of the forecast period as a weak cold front
becomes stationary north of the Lower Texas Coast.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM
     CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-135.



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