715
FXUS64 KBRO 160012
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
712 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

* Hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected
  to persist through the middle parts of next week.

* Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk will persist through Friday, before
  Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk develops over the weekend.

* Breezy southeasterly winds at times will result in low to
  moderate seas through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The weather pattern through at least the middle parts of next week
for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will feature
continued hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions.
Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a 591-594
dam sub-tropical heat ridge or "heat dome" retrograding westward
from Bermuda and building over the southeastern U.S. initially
before eventually establishing itself more broadly over the
Southern U.S.

For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, this means
seasonable temperatures and mainly minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk
with pockets of moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday
(highs temps inland in the mid 90s east to lower 100s west with heat
indices between 100-110F). High temps will hold in the 80s along the
Lower Texas Coast beaches and South Padre Island.

The heat intensifies slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned
594 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds overhead. This will result in
mainly moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk developing over Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the weekend and persisting
through early next week. Temperature anomalies will run slightly
hotter than normal with triple digit heating becoming more common
along and west of IH-69C.

As highlighted earlier, rain-free conditions will prevail through
the middle parts of next week as the aforementioned heat ridge
stifles any prospects rain. It`s possible that this pattern of
normal to hotter than normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions
could continue through late July/early August, given the time of
year we`re in and model trends.

Winds will also be breezy at times through the forecast period as
the sfc pressure gradient tightens or enhances at times. This
could at times result in moderate seas and rip current risk
through the period.

Finally, we continue to monitor a disturbance that has a medium
(40%) chance of development over the next 2-7 days over the north-
central Gulf. Impacts are not expected at this time across Deep
South Texas, according to forecast trends. However, there could be
some increase in swells over the Gulf Waters later this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Through 00z Thursday....Flying conditions, by and large, will be VFR
through the 00z TAF period with just a FEW-SCT diurnally-driven
clouds.

Winds will remain breezy out of the southeast through much of the
period with sustained speeds between 10-15 kts and gusts between 20-
30 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected
to prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane
Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance that has a medium (40%)
chance for development across the north-central Gulf that may
increase swell locally late this week. Small Craft Exercise Caution
(SCEC) conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with
gusty afternoon winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  94  77  93 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               77  97  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 79  99  77  98 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         76 101  74  98 /  10   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  79  87 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  93  76  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23-Evbuoma
LONG TERM....23-Evbuoma
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma