Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 260940
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
440 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Brownsville radar shows some
streamer showers across the Gulf waters this morning. This activity
is moving to the northwest and should begin to diminish later this
morning. Water vapor imagery continues to indicated a mid to upper
level ridge centered over the southern Appalachian Mountains and
weak 500mb low over the western Gulf of Mexico. Also, a large plume
of deep tropical moisture was noted on water vapor imagery over the
Gulf of Mexico this morning. Brownsville sounding data from Thursday
evening showed a precipitable water value of 1.75 inches.

The combination light winds, limited moisture, and day time heating
should support isolated sea breeze convection this afternoon. High
temperatures today and Saturday will be slightly above normal with
heat index readings generally between 103 to 109 degrees this
afternoon. Light winds are expected tonight with low temperatures
generally in the mid to upper 70s. Ample moisture and weak
instability will allow isolated to scattered coastal convection to
develop tonight into Saturday morning across the lower Texas Gulf
waters. Isolated sea breeze activity is expected again across the
deep south Texas on Saturday as deeper moisture remains north of the
area.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue to be the rule for the long term
portion of the forecast, as closed 500 mb low pressure initially
over the Upper Texas Coast gradually moves southwest over Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley and eventually into Mexico before
dissipating. Deeper tropical moisture will accompany the approach
and passage of the low, and although locally heavy rainfall has not
been included in the official forecast at this time, it may need to
be mentioned eventually, especially for Monday through Wednesday,
when the chance of rain will be best. Increased cloud cover and the
opportunity for rainfall will hold daytime high and overnight low
temperatures to more near normal levels for the forecast period.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Saturday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 8 knots gusting to near 10 knots with seas around
1.3 feet with a period of 3 seconds at 300 AM CDT/08 UTC. Broad
high pressure across the northern Gulf of Mexico will maintain a
weak gradient through the forecast period. Light onshore flow and
low seas expected today through Saturday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will move through the coastal waters at
times.

Saturday Night through Thursday: A weak pressure gradient across
the entire Gulf of Mexico will produce light to moderate winds and
low to moderate seas for the Lower Texas coastal waters during the
entire forecast period. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small
Craft Advisory are not anticipated to be needed.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  91  78  91  78 /  20  20  20  20
BROWNSVILLE          95  78  93  77 /  20  10  20  20
HARLINGEN            97  77  95  76 /  20  10  20  20
MCALLEN             103  77  97  77 /  20  10  20  20
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  77  98  77 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   87  82  88  79 /  20  20  30  20
&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short term...Caceres-63
Long term...Tomaselli-66
WX4PPT/Meso...Birchfield-65


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