Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 232347
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
747 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to bring fair and warm weather through
the rest of the weekend and the first half of next week. An
approaching cold front may finally bring a chance of showers
Wednesday, with much cooler temperatures arriving for the second
half of the week in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to produce cloudless skies this evening.

The clear skies and light winds will once again result in a
favorable setup for the development of radiation fog overnight,
particularly as dewpoints will be slightly higher. Most likely
locales will be in the typical river valley locations, as well as
low-lying areas near ponds/wetlands. With surface dewpoints in the
low 60s, expect temperatures overnight to only fall into the low to
mid 60s with warmest readings near lakes and cities.

As mentioned above, high pressure will remain firmly in control on
Sunday, bringing yet more sunshine. 850mb temps will be even warmer
than today, approaching +20C. As such, expect afternoon highs to
flirt with record levels, with readings climbing into the mid to
upper 80s across many locations, with low to mid 80s across higher
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An anomalous 590 dm upper high will remain centered across the
region Sunday night. Through Monday and Tuesday, the center of
this high will shift off the East Coast although strong ridging
of 587dm-588dm will remain across our region. A strong mid-level
low is forecast to lift out of the West Coast trough to the
North Plains region reaming to our west until the second half of
the week. At the surface, Hurricane Maria is forecast to be off
the coast of the Carolinas by Tuesday night without any impacts
locally. High pressure ridged across western and north-central
New York will maintain dry and fair weather ahead of an
approaching cold front near the Central Great Lakes.

This weather pattern will maintain mid-summer warmth across western
and north central New York through midweek with dry conditions
remaining through at least Tuesday night. Skies will be clear
outside of periodic thin high cloud cover and patchy morning stratus.
850 mb temperatures underneath the ridge will run between +18C and
+20C Monday then cooling some to around +17C by Tuesday. This
supports highs in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees Monday and only a
degree or two cooler on Tuesday. The warmest readings are expected
across inland areas away from local lake breeze circulations. It
also remain very humid, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This
will make it feel uncomfortably hot, despite the calender date with
Heat Index values pushing into the 90s if not the air temperatures.

It does look as if some daily high temperature records may be
challenged again Monday, particularly at Buffalo and Rochester.
Buffalo`s record high for Monday is 87, while Rochester`s record
high is 92. Buffalo stands the best chance at breaking a daily
record high temperature with a forecast of 89/90 degrees. Ironically
Buffalo made it the entire summer without hitting the 90 degree
mark, but now that we are officially in Autumn, Buffalo may make a
run at the 90 degree mark.

Nighttime low temperatures will be on the uncomfortable side due to
the high dewpoints. Lows will average in the lower to mid 60s. The
humid airmass with light winds and mainly clear skies will also
result in areas of fog each night, especially in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A major pattern change enters the picture for the second half of
next week going into the beginning of October. Global models are in
good agreement that the all-too-familiar western CONUS ridge will
make a reappearance by mid to late week, which will open the door
for troughing across the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast,
as we have seen for much of the summer.

The ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper
Great Lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain
well above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still
about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

A weak cold front will cross the region but moisture and upper
supper is limited, therefore rainfall amounts look minimal with only
scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm. The 12Z model suite
suggesting a consensus timing in the late Wednesday to early
Thursday timeframe. Much cooler, but drier air is expected to
spill across the region in the wake of the cold front passage,
this airmass change will get us back down to near more seasonal
values by Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 60s Thursday.

A fairly strong shortwave will dive across the Lower Great Lakes
Friday, with another shot of cooler air. Highs Friday will be in the
low to mid 60s, with temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s
Saturday. The air aloft will be cool enough for some lake
enhancement, with a chance of showers both Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are expected for KBUF and
KROC.

Valley fog will likely again spill across the KJHW terminal tonight,
with IFR or lower flight conditions. MVFR flight conditions in
patchy fog will be possible as well near KIAG and KART, with
slightly higher dewpoints tonight.

Winds will remain light through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR. Local IFR conditions each late
night and early morning with fog.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the weekend and into the start of next week. This will
provide a long stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with
ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK



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