Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 030355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1155 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS
FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH MOVES TO
THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A RETURN
OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN THE PROCESS OF FALLING
APART ACROSS NEW YORK STATE EVEN AS IT TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST. DRIER
AIR AND CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE CAN BE DETECTED ON SATELLITE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
CLEARING IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THIS PERIOD OF CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS
ANY CLEARING SHOULD AID IN RADIATIVE COOLING THAT...IN COMBINATION
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...SHOULD GENERATE LOW STRATUS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S COURTESY
OF THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. THIS
CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ACROSS MANY AREAS...INCLUDING ALL OF
THE TAF TERMINAL AS LINGERING MOISTURE FROM HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A
WESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP KBUF/KIAG NO LOWER THAN MVFR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






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