Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 300545
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
145 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain across northern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania through Sunday morning. Weak waves of low pressure
will ride along the front. High pressure will build southeast
across the area Sunday night. The high will move southeast by mid
week allowing for a return back to warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers have tapered off considerably. However...with the showers
across Western Ohio have bumped up pops overnight in the west to
likely.

original discussion...
Majority of the thunderstorms are diurnally driven/enhanced and
expect us to be at the peak of areal coverage through the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Steering flow is weak and for the
most part storms are affecting their own movement. Heavy rainfall
is the primary threat...with an inch or two very likely for those
lucky/unlucky enough to be targeted by a storm. Traditional severe
storms not expected (high wind,large hail) with little support for
that. There is a bit of jet energy overhead tonight and do not
think storm chances will diminish to zero. Will continue the
scattered shower/thunderstorm mention through the night. Somewhat
milder tonight and muggy...mid/upper 60s for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
This whole system is slow to shift out of here and in fact have
drawn out the precip chances into Monday across the eastern half
of the area. Local trough across the Great Lakes trapped south
of a southern Canadian ridge. There is nothing upstream to kick it
out. We should have decent coverage of storms on Saturday too
especially north and east...again diurnally enhanced. Sunday/Monday
the upper trough slowly lifts out and the surface stationary front
washes out in place. High pressure attempts to build in from the
western lakes to northwest Ohio. But with a bit of cyclonic flow
lingering across eastern Ohio/nw PA had to pull 20 percent precip
chances into Monday. Temperatures through the entire period will
be seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Extended forecast will be dominated by another thermal ridge
building in from the west. The models are in fairly good agreement
with the strength of the ridge and the amount of heat that will nose
into the region. The warm air advection will kick in Tuesday which
will likely keep convective out of the area through Thursday as the
air mass may get capped off under the building ridge. The ridge
breaks down by next Friday with a short wave passing by to the north
Friday into Friday Night. This will likely bring a front into the
area with our best chance for convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Really tough forecast to deal with today as low pressure moves
northeast through the area. Skies are trying to clear out over the
western areas and this will allow the possibility for some low
clouds to develop across the area. Visibilities will be reduced in
fog and haze this morning as well down to at least MVFR. As fog
and low clouds dissipate, ongoing threat for very slow moving
showers and thunderstorms is expected today. Scattered activity
could develop at any location during the late morning into the
early afternoon. Better chance arrives later this afternoon and
early evening. Winds for the most part light and variable through
the period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible
each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
A diffuse cold front lingers just south of the lake with a series of
weak lows moving across it tonight into Saturday Night. Some models
hint at a slight increase in the northeast winds tonight to around
15kt as the first low tightens the pressure gradient slightly. Don`t
feel this would last long enough to have a notable impact on the
wave heights as the gradient relaxes a few hours later. The same is
possible again Saturday afternoon with the second low. Overall
looking at an east/northeast wind around 10knots over the next
24hrs. High pressure will be slow to move in on Monday, but become
entrenched by Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds in.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Jamison
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Jamison


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