Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250001
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
801 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of troughs will cross the region between Sunday and
Monday bringing us below normal temperatures. High pressure
will take hold for mid week with more seasonable temperatures to
end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A few small showers have popped up. Will maintain slight chc pops
another few hours until the sun sets allowing diurnal peak to wane.
Diurnal cumulus will fade this evening with clear/mostly clear skies
for much of the night. As upper s/w trough for tomorrow nears,
a few showers may start to develop in the snowbelt prior to 6am,
but overall coverage really low. Lows into the 50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A broad trough will be the main feature across the region for
the remainder of the weekend and into Monday. This will yield
temperatures that will be running upwards of 10 degrees below
normal. Upper vort max spiraling across MN today will make its
way across the lower lakes for Sunday. With its close proximity
expecting shower development/isolated thunderstorms from north-
central OH eastward. Main feature will likely pass early enough
in the day that western areas will remain dry. Highs will be
within a few degrees of 70 with breezy winds.

By Sunday night temperatures aloft will definitely be cool
enough for a lake enhancement scenario, but with the area
between troughs/local ridging, did not want to go too high on
precip chances across the snowbelt. In fact unsure how much
activity we will have Monday morning with the next trough still
north across the lakes until late afternoon. Have a large area
of likely precip chances or better from Cleveland and Youngstown
eastward as instability showers/ts will flare up by afternoon.
There will be more upper 60s for highs and fewer 70s Monday.

High pressure and ridging work eastward for Tuesday. Lingering
showers east early and temperatures beginning to rebound across
the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the second day in a row haven`t made many changes.  Wednesday is
still looking dry.  The area will just be getting in the warmer
southerly flow on the backside of the surface ridge. Southwesterly
flow will then continue for a few days with lower level moisture
steadily increasing.  The new guidance continues to be in fair
agreement with the low set to move over the western lakes late next
week.  The warm front from the low could begin to kick off a few
showers and storms as early as Thursday. Have removed all mention
from Wednesday night.  Precip chances will then be needed into the
weekend as surface dewpoints eventually make the upper 60s.
Temperatures will be seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
A couple of showers between KCLE and KYNG this evening as a
weak trough of low pressure moves through. The showers should
diminish after sunset. Better looking trough over the upper
midwest moving toward the area but it will arrive early Sunday
morning at a time when one would think that precipitation
chances would be at a minimum. The best chance for a shower
Sunday morning would be up the lakeshore, perhaps near KERI,
but given the low probability, will leave it out of the TAF
forecast. VFR cumulus will develop again on Sunday, likely
becoming broken (050-070) in the afternoon. Isolated showes are
possible with brief MVFR conditions. West winds will become
gusty again on Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Chance of isolated MVFR in showers Monday into
Tuesday morning with a trough aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
Even though the buoys continue to report conditions below small
craft criteria have been getting human reports of 5 foot waves. Have
gone ahead and put up a small craft through the evening.  Another
small craft will likely be needed tomorrow as westerly winds should
be even stronger.  Mainly westerly flow will continue through Monday
evening.  A cold front will cross the lake early Tuesday flipping
the flow to the northwest or north.  It`s not looking like winds
will be strong enough for small craft conditions behind this front.
A surface ridge will cross the lake Tuesday night with southerly
winds finally returning.  South to southwest flow will then continue
through the end of the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ011-012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Adams/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik/Kubina



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