Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 182324
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
724 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley this
this evening and early tonight. Towards morning, weak low
pressure associated with a disturbance aloft will drop across
the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Saturday. High pressure
will build across the Great Lakes Sunday, then move east of the
area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite shows clouds thinning across northern Ohio and nwrn PA
as weak high pressure and drier air move in and the low north
of the area continues to pull northeast. Expecting this trend to
continue into the evening with clearing for late evening and the
early overnight. Towards morning however models show another
weak low moving in from the west supported by a developing upper
level trough. Models differ graphically on cloud cover and
associated moisture but both the NAM and GFS do print out
likely pops for the event which seems reasonable given the upper
support. Will not however be an all day rain... Believe the best
chance for the western half of the area is from dawn through 16z
or so shifting east in the afternoon as drier air again moves
into the west. Saturday night should be dry outside of a
possible lingering shower for an hour or so in the evening. Will
have only a 20 pop for that possibility. Night temps near
normal. Saturday temps near to a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the area providing dry wx Sun thru
Mon before moving off to the east for Tue to allow a cold front
to drop SE into the area by Tue evening. Moisture is limited
with this front so will keep pops in chc category. Near normal
temps on Sun will warm above normal for Mon and Tue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad troughiness will move east across the eastern half of Canada
by mid week causing a fairly strong area of low pressure to move
east northeast across the central and eastern Canada as well.  A
strong cold front will push east across the area Tuesday night
ushering in some colder air to the local area from the north.  The
front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday night
and push east of the area Wednesday morning.  There the is the
possibility for some lake effect rain showers following the frontal
passage Wednesday into Thursday.  Strong cold air advection will
likely cause waterspouts to develop provided winds are not too
strong to shear them apart.  Strong high pressure at the surface
will build east across the Great Lakes region through the latter
half of the week even though upper level troughiness will persist
through this period.  Cold air advection will begin to wane by the
end of the forecast period as the high pressure begins to move east
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Things remain quiet with lot`s of diurnal looking cumulus
floating about. These clouds should go away for a few hours
before mid level clouds begin to spread back east across the
local area overnight. Precip chances will hold off till around
12z in the west and till late in the morning or even early
afternoon across the eastern end of the area. The new guidance
coming in is backing off on precip coverage from earlier models
runs. So will back off on thunder chances in the new TAFs. Most
locations will have a 3 or 4 hour of window for precip during
the period with it dry otherwise. Winds have started to come
down and the gustiness should end after sunset. The flow will be
mainly west or southwest under 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/tstms on
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridging moving into the lake will cause the winds to
diminish some tonight and allow the SCA conditions to end. A trough
will push east across the lake Sat into early Sat night causing the
winds to waver from SW to West. High pressure moves over the lake
for Sun thru Mon to produce light mostly south to southwest winds.

A cold front is expected to push SE across the lake Tue night
causing SW winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots on Tue ahead of the
front, veering to NW by the end of the night and continuing Wed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Adams/Oudeman
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Adams



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