Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 291348
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
948 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A weak cold front will finish sinking south across the area this
morning with high pressure building over the region between
tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will move south across the area
on Wednesday. The upper trough will pivot across the area
Thursday into Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Patches of stratus remain across the area. Expect this to develop
into a healthy cu field in the southern and western counties
where dewpoints are higher. Cumulus will decrease in coverage
through the afternoon as we dry out with the northeasterly flow.
Previous discussion...Some isolated fog and patches of lower
clouds will be there at the start. The cold front is still working
its way across the area. Will continue a small 20 percent chance
of a shower early this morning with it. Otherwise with winds
shifting out of the north- northeast and high pressure slowly
building in...will not only end the shower chances...but also
clear out the skies for this afternoon. Dewpoints will continue to
lower today and highs today will be several degrees cooler than
yesterday...lower to mid 80s. Only tweaks were made to the
forecast with this early morning update.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The high will make for quiet and dry weather through Tuesday.
Upper ridge begins to flatten and shortwave energy will begin to
carve out a trough across the eastern Great Lakes to end the work
Models are targeting Wednesday for the arrival of the next cold
front. Enough for scattered showers/thunderstorms with the
frontal passage and will continue the low chance mention. The
cooler air arrives Wednesday night. Will have to deal with lake
clouds and possibly a few lingering lake/instability showers on
Thursday with the cool trough aloft. Highs will be seasonable
leading up to the front in the mid 80s. Will dial back into the
lower and mid 70s by Thursday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The ridge aloft will begin to build across the Great Lakes by
the Labor Day Weekend but we will have to get the cool Canadian
surface high out of the way. Temperatures aloft will be cool enough
to watch for lake effect clouds Friday morning. The anticyclonic
flow should provide enough subsidence to suppress any showers. Dry
for the holiday weekend. As it looks now, nothing more than a few
fair weather cumulus or wispy cirrus.
Forecast highs will be somewhat higher than guidance as the weekend
goes along given the rising heights. Dew points should remain in
check although they will also slowly increase. Highs in the
lower/mid 80s by Sunday and mid perhaps upper 80s by Labor Day.
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A weak cold front with a narrow swath of MVFR/IFR ceilings and
vsby will be south of the TAF sites by mid morning. The north to
northeast flow behind the front was resulting in patches of MVFR
ceilings coming off the west half of Lake Erie. These clouds
should mix away by late morning and conditions will improve to VFR
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with thunderstorms along a cold front
A weak cold front will push south of Lake Erie early this
morning. The gradient is rather light but there is a north to
northeast fetch which can generate a modest wind and waves. A
stronger cold front will drop across the lake Wednesday morning.
The north to northeast wind may become strong enough by Wednesday
night and Thursday to approach small craft criteria. The northeast
fetch will persist into Friday and the lake may remain choppy.