Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 051355
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
955 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MICHIGAN WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN
PUSH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTY
WARNING AREA. HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST
WILL SLOW THE WARMING TODAY AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
IN THIS AREA.

WE WILL THEN WAIT FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED.
BELIEVE THE CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AND
OVER THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER.
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOWS OR THE HILLS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT
ON SUNDAY. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXCEPT FOR NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. DEWPOINTS START TO MIX OUT BY MONDAY
AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO FINALLY PREVAIL WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED.

THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO FLATTEN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MIDWEST. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STREAMING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS ENERGY AND OUTPACES THE RETURN OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FILL IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH. GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH MODELS SIGNALING CHANGE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN MID
WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THE ECMWF IS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST
GFS. ALTHOUGH GFS A LITTLE FASTER ON THE TIMING TREND IS STILL THE
SAME. MODELS PUSH COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
ONLY TO STALL THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE UPPER LEVELS NICE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BE
REPLACED BY A DIGGING TROUGH BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM NW OH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTED TSRA TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE NW OHIO. ADDED VCTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TOL AND FDY.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF THE NEXT FRONT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB



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