Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 230114
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northern Lakes will move SE across the lakes
and move off the SE coast Thursday night.  This will allow a warm
front to lift NE of the area early Friday. An upper level low
will drift across the Central Lakes this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
No weather to speak of tonight...as high pressure will shift
across the forecast area. The high centered over Southern Lake
Superior will reach Central PA by daybreak. Expect temps to dip
into the teens tonight...with a few single digits. Will likely
be under and not over guidance values with winds subsiding after
dark. Other than bumping up sky coverage to account for the thin
cirrus across the west, no other changes were made with this mid
evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue in good agreement moving the high off the East Coast
Thursday night.   This will allow a warm front to lift NE across the
forecast area Thursday night.   All three of the models produce rain
showers with the front itself...but QPF varies significantly. Leaned
toward the ECMWF as it was the driest of the 3.  And since models
tend to over forecast precip with warm fronts.   Models continue to
lift the front north of the area Friday morning allowing area to
come into the warm sector.   This will allow temps to warm into the
60s this weekend.  Best chance for widespread rain showers still
appears to be Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active long term period begins Sunday with low pressure moving into
the Great Lakes region from the west. Models continue to show a
strong signal for rain much of the day, so went with blanket
categorical pops across the area Monday. Also mentioned chance of
thunder for Sunday and Sunday night, as model soundings indicating
some instability in the warm sector across the region, peaking
around 00Z Monday. The low will depart east of the area Monday, but
precip chances will quickly return Monday night as a phasing
northern stream trough dives east southeast through the Great Lakes,
and a shearing out trough moves through the Ohio Valley. Continued
with high chance to low likely pops Monday night and Tuesday,
tapering to slight chance Tuesday night. Another system is progged
to eject out of the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes late next
week. ECMWF much faster bringing precip into the area by Wednesday
evening, while GEM and GFS much slower/deeper with the low, not
bringing precip into the region until at least Thursday
night/Friday. Will go ahead with a dry forecast for Wednesday and
Wednesday night with the widely varying model solutions.
Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
High pressure will be overhead tonight and move east on
Thursday. High clouds will begin to increase but VFR conditions
will continue. Light winds will veer from north to southeast by
Thursday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR late Thursday night into Friday
morning. Non-VFR developing later Saturday and likely lingering
into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A large area of arctic high pressure will continue to sink southeast
across Lake Erie tonight and Thursday. Winds will generally be east-
northeast 10 knots or less through Thursday. A warm front will lift
north across the lake on Friday, with southwest winds increasing to
10-15 knots. Low pressure will track towards the lake Saturday and
Sunday and move across the lake on Monday. The aforementioned warm
front will become nearly stationary Saturday and Sunday just north
of the lake with east/southeast winds 10-20 knots at times. Winds
will veer southwest Monday after the low moves through.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB/Oudeman
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Greenawalt/Kosarik



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