Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 061805 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GUSTY SE/SSE WINDS. WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ANY
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT THOUGH BY 14Z/15Z AS SOUTHEAST WINDS
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...BASED ON TEMPS FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS...HAVE BUMPED
UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND COASTAL
COUNTIES. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE EAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...ANTICIPATE NON-CONVECTIVE LLWS EARLY THIS MORNING AT
ALI/LRD. MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES GENERALLY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77 AND EAST OF STATE
ROAD 16 EARLY THIS MORNING WL TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING. GENERALLY LGT ONSHORE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
A TRANSITION TO MODERATE/BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW THIS AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
PREDICT A WEAKNESS OVER THE CWA/MSA IN THE REGIONAL UPPER
RIDGE...YET MAINTAINS 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER MAINLY
THE ERN CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. NAM PREDICTS PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.5 INCHES OR LESS. SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR/BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT PCPN OVR THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD.
EXPECT PREDOMINATE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 105F.
VERTICAL MIXING OF STG MOMENTUM FROM ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN AT
LEAST SCEC CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS JUST
BELOW MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY/TUESDAY...YET WL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE RISK OWING TO UNCERTAINTY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...PRETTY QUIET IN THE LONG
TERM. A WEAK SHEAR AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE SE HALF OF TX WILL LINGER
EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
OUT OF THE FORECAST. PERSISTENT SFC HIGH TO THE EAST AND SFC LOW
ACROSS THE WEST WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL
BEND EARLY IN THE WEEK. STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL EXTEND INTO REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS LOW. HOWEVER PWATS INCREASE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS TOWARD SATURDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WESTERN GULF.
INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING POPS
FARTHER INLAND AS INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT A WEAKER CAP
DOES EXIST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP SILENT 10 POPS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
CHANGE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DID KEEP ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST
REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT TIMES. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BRIEFLY
HIT 105 OR HIGHER AT TIMES IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IN ADDITION...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO EXIST AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  78  91  77  /  10  10  10  10   0
VICTORIA          78  90  76  91  75  /  10  10  10  10   0
LAREDO            77  97  77 100  77  /  10  10  10   0   0
ALICE             77  91  76  95  76  /  10  10  10  10   0
ROCKPORT          81  87  80  88  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           76  95  76  97  75  /  10  10  10   0   0
KINGSVILLE        78  90  77  93  77  /  10  10  10  10   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  79  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

99...SHORT TERM


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