Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 260019
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
719 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Update for 00Z aviation cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...

Tonight...MVFR/IFR. Sped up the timing of MVFR stratus spreading
in from the coast late tonight, now closer to 05Z at KALI/KCRP,
and added in some IFR at KALI. Do not think the MVFR will
lift/scatter at KVCT so start them prevailing MVFR and lower with
time. Will still have strong southerly winds much of the night so
fog should not be an issue, just the lowering cigs. Not expecting
LLWS to be an issue even as a 35-40 knot low-level jet passes
overhead ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Medium
confidence overall.

Wednesday...VFR. Frontal boundary swings through by late morning
west-east and helps to scatter out stratus and shift winds from
the west-northwest. Gusts upward of 25-30 knots possible again
during the afternoon hours. High confidence.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

The first short wave trough over the Texas Panhandle will move into
the central plains tonight. The next short wave trough, northwest
of the Four Corners region this afternoon, will move southeast
into northwest Texas to the Permian Basin Wednesday morning and
then eastward along the Red River Wednesday afternoon. Strong
southerly low level flow will continue over the coastal plains
tonight with an increase in low clouds expected this evening. A
dry Pacific front will move into the western Brush Country before
12Z and is expected to reach the coast by 15Z Wednesday. This
front will usher in dry air along with gusty northwest winds. Even
though there will be weak cold air advection in the low levels,
downslope warming will compensate to push temperatures in the 90s
close to the coast on Wednesday. See Fire Weather section for
elevated fire danger risk for the Brush Country and Coastal Bend
areas on Wednesday. A front with cooler air behind it will move
into the area Wednesday evening. Low temperatures will be back
into the 50s across the northern counties Thursday morning.

MARINE...

Southerly low level flow will increase to 35-40 knots over the
coastal waters tonight. Strong onshore flow will continue over the
Gulf waters into the southern bays tonight. The frontal boundary
will be moving through the Brush Country by 12Z Wednesday and
expect wind speeds will diminish over the southern bays. Winds and
seas will be a little slower to subside over the Gulf waters.
Extended SCA to 16Z for the Gulf waters and 11Z for southern bays.
Front with cooler air will arrive in the coastal waters Wednesday
evening with a brief spell of moderate to strong north winds
overnight over the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry air mass will move into the region behind the dry Pacific
front on Wednesday. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected
from the Coastal Bend into the Brush Country from mid morning
through the afternoon. Winds speeds will approach critical fire
danger levels over the western Brush Country. Issued Fire Danger
Statement to cover elevated fire danger threat for Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Temperatures will still remain warm Thursday in the mid 80s to mid
90s despite the passage of a very weak cold front. However this will
only be short lived as temperatures will rise yet again Friday and
Saturday with highs reaching toward the triple digits across the Rio
Grande Plains and Brush Country. Winds will return out of the
southeast through Thursday as surface high slides east. Winds will
strengthen Friday and Saturday as the next area of low pressure
develops across the southern plains. Pressure differences from
surface high across the gulf and low to the north should lead to
breezy conditions, with strong flow across the waters setting up for
Small Craft Advisories.

Models are still in somewhat agreement with the next cold front to
move through South Texas Saturday night/Sunday. GFS is running a bit
faster by a few hours but still overall, ECMWF and GFS both bringing
the front through, adding a bit more precip than previous runs. Have
maintained the bumped up POPs for late Saturday night with highest
POPs across the Victoria Crossroads. Activity should move quickly
through the region exiting through mid morning. It is with this
front that temperatures may fall back to seasonal normal in the low
to mid 80s. Warming trend to occur again Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    74  98  62  86  73  /  10  10   0   0  10
Victoria          73  94  55  85  70  /  10  10   0   0  10
Laredo            73  99  61  94  72  /   0   0   0   0  10
Alice             71  99  58  91  71  /   0   0   0   0  10
Rockport          75  93  63  83  75  /  10  10   0   0  10
Cotulla           70  95  57  93  70  /   0   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        73  99  61  89  72  /  10   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       75  94  66  84  76  /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas.

&&

$$

GH/77...AVIATION



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