Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 312048
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
348 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...WATER VAPOR AND
GFS/NAM STREAMLINE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE QUASI-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION WITH GENERALLY N-S AXIS OVER THE WRN
CWA. CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH MOVES THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD DRG THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT TO PERSIST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA AT
LEAST TNGT/EARLY TUESDAY. COPIOUS MSTR OFFSHORE SHOULD ENTER THE
COAST/ERN CWA OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY (NAM DETERMINISTIC.)
THUS...ISOLD CONVECTION THIS EVENING OVER THE CWA UNTIL AROUND 03Z
TUESDAY (NOT CONFIDENT REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION AS CIN VALUES INCREASE TNGT...UPPER FORCING
NOTWITHSTANDING.) SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MSA/NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY (UPPER FORCING/LOWER
CIN/MSTR.) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY
(THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT 15Z TUESDAY PER NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONSISTENT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.) DECAY IN
CONVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST/SUBSIDENCE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL SOLNS ARE A
LITTLE WETTER FOR LATER THIS WEEK/WEEKEND THAN PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW AXIS SHIFTING JUST E OF THE
CWA BY WED...BUT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS TO
PRODUCE ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY E PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS
THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS E SO DO THE BETTER RAIN CHCS THU INTO FRI. THE
MODELS PROG THE UPPER LOW TO BEGIN TO MOVE W FRI AND INTO THE
WEEKEND THUS RESULTING IN A DEEPER E TO SE FLOW. MODELS PROG PWAT
VALUES AROUND 1.8 AT TIMES THROUGH THE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...KEPT 20-30 POPS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH A GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE
WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  88  76  90  76  /  30  50  20  40  20
VICTORIA          74  88  73  92  73  /  30  40  20  40  20
LAREDO            73  96  76  98  76  /  20  10  10  20  10
ALICE             74  91  74  93  74  /  20  40  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  86  78  88  78  /  40  50  20  40  30
COTULLA           72  95  75  95  74  /  20  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  90  75  93  75  /  30  40  20  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  79  89  78  /  40  50  20  40  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM


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