Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 160042
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
742 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES (VFR) WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING
AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE GULF.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE VCT AREA THROUGH MID EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS (MVFR). SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND LATE TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO AROUND 1500
FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH CEILINGS OCCASIONALLY IN THE IFR RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...ABOUNDANT MOISTURE
AXIS WITH TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE MARINE ZONES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
COUNTY ZONES AS WELL. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE AXIS TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY GRADUALLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. GOES SOUNDER DERIVED PWAT VALUES HAVE INCREASED ABOVE
2.1 OVER THE COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE
MORE OVERNIGHT. HAVE POPS UP TO 70 PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE RAIN
TOMORROW. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER HAVE
AREAWIDE ESTIMATES LESS THAN ONE INCH TOTAL AT THIS TIME SO WILL
NOT CONSIDER ANY HYDRO WATCHES. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBER ON THE
ORDER OF 3-4 INCHES IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE A
FEW SITES COULD APPROACH THOSE NUMBERS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
WELL BELOW.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LAST NIGHTS "COOL"
MINIMUMS. SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE BOARD AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. TOMORROW HIGHS A BIT TRICKY WITH
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS COOLER IN THE
EAST WITH RAIN STARTING EARLIER...AND WARMER WEST WHERE THE BULK
OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF FOR SOME DAYTIME WARMING TO OCCUR.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EAST TO WEST...BUT
COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAIN
PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGD
TO DISSIPATE AS IT EXITS TO THE W ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS S TX. MODELS PROG A MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ARE PROGD TO ROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL PERIODICALLY PROVIDE SOME
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION. EXPECTING MAINLY AN ACTIVE SEA
BREEZE EACH DAY WITH SCT CONVECTION STARTING OFF IN THE MORNING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES THEN SPREADING INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON. KEPT THE 30-50 POPS FOR WED AND THU THEN 20-40 POPS
FRI AND DECREASING SAT AND SUN BUT WITH CONVECTION REMAINING IN THE
FCST. BOTH THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLNS PROG A WEAK COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH OR MOVE INTO S TX BY NEXT MON...BUT WILL HOLD GOING WITH A
HIGHER POP THAN 20 PERCENT THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. KEPT TEMPS NEAR
SEASONAL VALUES BUT WAS 2-4 DEGREES BELOW MEX GUIDANCE VALUES WED
AND THU. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK TO MOD FROM THE SE AND AT
TIMES E THEN NE BY LATE IN THE PERIOD PER THE MODEL SOLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  85  76  89  76  /  30  70  40  50  30
VICTORIA          74  86  74  88  74  /  20  50  40  50  30
LAREDO            73  87  77  94  78  /  20  50  40  40  30
ALICE             74  86  75  90  75  /  20  70  30  50  30
ROCKPORT          78  84  79  89  78  /  40  60  40  50  30
COTULLA           73  89  75  94  75  /  10  40  30  30  30
KINGSVILLE        74  86  75  90  75  /  30  70  40  40  30
NAVY CORPUS       78  84  79  89  79  /  40  70  40  50  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JM/75...AVIATION




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