Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 202043
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
343 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...RADAR IS SHOWING VERY
WEAK ECHOES MOVG N ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NO STATIONS ARE REPORTING ANY PRECIP AT THE
MOMENT. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TONIGHT BUT WILL SEE
A MIX OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT DUE TO THE STRATUS DECK BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE CWA...COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF
DENSE FOG. THE FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING.
MODELS KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MOST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AND MOS GUIDANCE
HAS VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE W CWA ON MONDAY. MOISTURE IS PROGD TO POOL ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO MV NE FROM THE SW. HIGHER
CAPE AND LOWER CIN VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
CWA...BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE LIMITED. THEREFORE HAVE SHRA`S
WITH A 10 POP FOR THE W CWA. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE IS PROGD FOR MON
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ALONG WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT WITH MENTION OF -SHRA`S WITH A 10
POP BUT SPREAD IT TO THE NE CWA DUE TO AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL
BDRY. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE MORE PERTINENT WEATHER. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA
LATE TUE NIGHT DUE TO WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT AS THE WEAKENING
FRONTAL BDRY SAGS TO JUST N OF THE CWA. AS FOR TEMPS...A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL CONT THRU THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...MOD ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAYS WILL RELAX THRU
THE EVENING. GENERALLY...A WEAK TO MOD ONSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGING INTO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA. LOCATIONS FAVORED FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS WHERE 20 POPS WILL RESIDE. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE INTO SOUTH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM EACH TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S OUT WEST
TO LOWER AND MID 80S OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE NEXT STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODELS ON EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL
KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    66  81  66  84  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          63  81  64  85  63  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            69  88  69  93  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             65  84  66  89  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          66  75  66  79  66  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           65  86  66  90  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        65  83  66  87  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       69  79  69  80  66  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
TB/78...LONG TERM





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