Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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512
FXUS64 KCRP 041743
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SOUTH TEXAS
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
RESULTING IN VERY NICE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY LEVELS
ARE QUITE MANAGEABLE BY MAY STANDARDS AS DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S
AND 50S. HIGHS ARE ON TRACK WITH LOWER 80S IN THE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR 90 AT LAREDO. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DRG THE TAF PERIOD.
LGT/MODERATE NORTH WIND TODAY BECOMING LGT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE
EXPECTED TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CWA/MSA. IN ADDITION...CONCUR WITH THE GFS DETERMINISTIC WHICH
DEVELOPS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN BY THURSDAY OVER THE CONUS WITH
THE CWA/MSA UNDER THE SUBSIDENT SECTOR EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE
NAM DETERMINISTIC PREDICTS LOW PWAT VALUES OVER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE/DRY CONDITIONS TO PRECLUDE PCPN OVER THE
CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. WL CONTINUE THE CURRENT CFW FOR THE SRN
COAST/BAYS UNTIL 00Z THURSDAY AS BOB HALL PIER TIDE LEVEL JUST
REACHED 2FT MSL. DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WL CONTRIBUTE TO
WARM/HOT AFTN TEMPS TODAY/THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND WITH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE NOAM PATTERN WILL RESEMBLE AN
OMEGA BLOCK...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WEAK FLOW
WILL BECOME ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...GRADUALLY BUILDING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

SOUTHWEST US UPPER TROUGH FINALLY EDGES CLOSE ENOUGH TO EXERT
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER BY MONDAY...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD BACK ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S EAST AND 90S WEST. INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS AND MILDER LOWS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    60  87  65  87  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          56  86  60  85  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            61  94  66  93  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             57  90  61  89  66  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  85  69  85  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           58  91  63  92  66  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        59  89  62  89  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  83  71  85  72  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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