Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 210850
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
450 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH MILDER AIR
BRINING A WARM DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TO NORMAL WITH A DRY WEAK UNTIL
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING FREEZING
OVER THE SE ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE FROST ADVISORY. TEMPS WILL
WARM UP QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT AND FULL
SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
850T RISES TO NEAR 10C THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY WITH
MOST LOCATIONS INTO THE 70S. SHOULD SEE INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM LATE IN THE DAY. FRONT
APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT WITH THICKENING CLOUDS AND MILD LOW
TEMPERATURES. FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HAVE THUNDER ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT AT
THIS POINT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SEVERE...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG JET MAX AND RAPIDLY COOLING TEMPS ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA TUE EVENING WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. NEXT FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER
POPS ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGHT IT DOES LOOK MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SCATTERED THIN CIRRUS WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. SOUTH
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS AT 1000FT AT 06Z ARE KEEPING SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND IN A FEW
VALLEYS LIKE KIPT. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNRISE AS FLOW WEAKENS.

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS...BEFORE TURNING SW MON NIGHT.

FOR TUE...A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING
LOWERING/THICKENING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO PENNSYLVANIA.


OUTLOOK...

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BREEZY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING LATE.

TUE NIGHT-WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH SCT -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.
BREEZY NW WINDS.

THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

FRI...MVFR WITH CHC SHRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...RXR



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