Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270641
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
241 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP AT 06Z SHOWS A DWINDLING BAND OF CONVECTION
ENTERING WESTERN PA IN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVR THE
GRT LKS. EXPECT THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS BLYR COOLS/STABILIZES. LATEST HRRR/NAM INDICATE SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSRA WORK INTO THE W MTNS TOWARD DAWN. FOR
THE REST OF CENTRAL PA...EXPECT A WARM AND TRANQUIL REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING MUCH FROM
06Z READINGS WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU THE GRT LKS WILL INTRODUCE A
DECENT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MDL TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS
THE W COUNTIES...WITH A GREATER RISK OF PM TSRA ACROSS EASTERN PA.

GEFS MEAN CAPES PEAK ARND 1200 J/KG ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES THIS AFTN.
THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH 6KM WIND FIELDS ARND
40KTS COULD SUPPORT ISOLD SVR WX DURING THE AFTN HOURS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF RAIN
NEEDED TO BREAK US OUT OF THE RECENT DRY SPELL. CONSALL MDL
BLENDED QPF INDICATES AVG RAINFALL RANGING FROM JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS...TO ARND A QUARTER INCH ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. HIGHER RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MDLS
INDICATE LOCAL AMTS ARND AN INCH FROM TSRA THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES.

MCLDY SKIES WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT CONSALL STILL
SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPS BTWN THE U70S-L80S...SEVERAL DEG ABV NORMAL
FOR LATE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. EXPECT
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH PA...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COOLER AND DRIER
AIR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...REDUCING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE
IMPLIES DRIER WX AS LOWER PWAT AIR MASS WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIR AMT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MED
RANGE GUIDANCE FOR RAINY WX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG AN
INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD FOLLOW SUNDAY/MONDAY
AS WAVE OF LOW PRES RIDES EASTWARD ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY
SOUTH OF PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

RADAR CONTINUES TO BE QUIET ACROSS CENTRAL PA AT 04Z...THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO EDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/PA BORDER INTO
W PA. MAJORITY OF CWA WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS
MAY SLIP INTO FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FROM KBFD-KJST AFTER 10Z. VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN THE RULE SO FAR /EXCEPT AT KIPT WHERE RAIN
FELL LATE TUE AFTERNOON/ BUT AS SUNRISE APPROACHES AND MOIST LOW
LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP A BIT...EXPECT MVFR CIGS/VSBY TO DEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF CWA.

SREF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS /AND EVEN NAM MOS HINTS/ THAT THE
LOWER CIGS MAY LINGER INTO LATE MORNING FROM KIPT-KMDT BEFORE A
RETURN TO VFR...MID MORNING ELSEWHERE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS PEAK ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF CWA BETWEEN
12-18Z...AND SLIDE EASTWARD AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS.

THU-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD P.M. TSTMS.

SAT...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD FROPA.

SUN...MVFR CIGS POSS NW. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR IN SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR



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