Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 270936
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
WWX ADVY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7AM...AND WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
ON TIME.

COASTAL LOW JUST ABOUT TO OUR LATITUDE...AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
BRINGING DRIER AIR IN UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING THE
INTENSITY OF THE SHSN. ORGANIZATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS
BECOMING POOR AT THIS HOUR AND THE GENERAL WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. HELD LIKELY POPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE WEST AND SC MTS. RADAR RETURNS
SLIDING IN FROM THE COAST ARE PRODUCING VERY LIGHT SNOW IN FAR ERN
PA. HOWEVER...THEY HAVE JUST ABOUT REACHED THE ERN EXTENT OF THEIR
INFLUENCE. WILL HOLD HIGH CHC POPS IN THE FAR ERN CWA...BUT EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMS THERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE STORM DEEPENS
AND PULLS AWAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ONLY FLURRIES WILL BE LEFT TO START THE SHORT TERM PD...AND
GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS. CLEARING IS LIKELY TO WORK
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS DRY AIR WRAP AROUND AND CUTS IN FROM THE N.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT 10 TO 20 WITH 25 TO 30MPH GUSTS COMMON IN
THE EAST. COLD TEMPS IN STORE TODAY WITH COLDER DRY AIR
INFILTRATING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACKS THE WINDS...ALL WHILE CLEARING
CONTINUES. EXPECT SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN THE NRN TIER
TONIGHT...AND TEENS ELSEWHERE. MAXES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MILDER THAN TODAY IN THE N BUT COOLER IN THE S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WED NIGHT...BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS AND THAT WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATER THU
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM NOT LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD RESULT IN
A COASTAL REAL NEAR THE COAST.

COLDER AIR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TOO BAD...COLDER AIR WILL TRY TO BUILD IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ACROSS
CENTRAL PA AS INVERTED TROUGH OVERHEAD SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.
INTERESTING FEATURE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE A DEVELOPING
SNOW BAND STRETCHING N-S LOCATED FROM RENOVO TO JUST EAST OF STATE
COLLEGE THROUGH ADAMS COUNTY. RADAR AROUND 06Z SHOWED A
CONVERGENCE OF BOUNDARIES WHICH IS LEADING TO THE ENHANCED
INTENSITY OF THIS BAND /THAT THE VERY SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODELS
ARE NOT PICKING UP ON/. AS FAR AS TERMINALS...LOOKS LIKE ONLY KUNV
WILL BE IMPACTED WITH IFR VSBYS...BUT SIMILAR IMPACTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE LINE AS IT PEAKS AND THEN
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HIGHER
TERRAIN...WHILE IN THE EAST SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NE
BRINGING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR BY MID MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY
TUE AS N/NW FLOW INCREASES.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR WITH NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THU NIGHT-FRI...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW.

SAT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ005-
006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-
063>065.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR


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