Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
FXUS61 KCTP 221205
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
805 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Blustery northwest winds will usher in much colder air today.
Occasional light showers are possible through tonight especially
across the mountain areas and the north. The first touch of lake
effect snow flakes are possible over some of the higher ridge
tops...but no significant accumulations are expected.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KCCX continues to pick up light returns over the West Central
mountains and Laurel Highlands as cooler air advects over the
region. Air temperatures have dropped into the upper 30s across
the northwest mountains and the 40s across the rest of the
central mountain areas...lower 50s southeast. METARs indicate
patchy drizzle and very light showers occurring (KBFD this hour).
This will continue to be the case today...as a cool and unsettled
day is expected thanks to persistent northwest flow and lake
clouds prevalent in the cyclonic circulation around deepening sfc
low over southeast New England this morning.
In fact 850 mb temps remain below zero throughout the day across
central PA...and we`ll certainly be looking at a few wet
snowflakes mixing in at times with some of the showers over the
higher terrain of the northwest and northern mountains. Under
such scenarios, the best chance for measurable precipitation
usually favors these western and northern higher terrain areas
with little more than sprinkles elsewhere. The far south and
southeast will see breaks of sun...but the remainder of central PA
will keep mostly cloudy skies through late afternoon.
Highs today will only range from the lower 40s northwest to the
lower to middle 50s southeast.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Post frontal lake effect regime in effect tonight and Sunday.
Northwest flow will slowly weaken overnight and Sunday as drier
air arrives and overlake trajectories diminish slightly. Expect
clearing to expand northward tonight...but the northwest mountains...
west central and northern mountains should keep quite a bit of
stratus...all the way through Sunday afternoon.
Mins tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower
40s southeast...while highs Sun range from the mid 50s north to
the lower 60s southeast.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the surface and mid level systems track through eastern Quebec,
a broad cyclonic/northwest flow pattern will continue into early
next week. Models forecast lingering deformation or lake-enhanced
pcpn to come to an end by early Sunday morning. Gusty winds will
should weaken a bit with peak gusts not as strong as Saturday.
Focus will shift upstream to a series of shortwaves diving
southeast from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the Northern
Mid Atlantic region. Models show some varying QPF solutions with
these features, but with limited moisture look for max amounts in
the 0.10 to 0.25 range over north-central PA. Following a brief
moderation in sfc- 850mb temps on Sunday, the aforementioned
shortwaves will bring a reinforcing shot of chilly air into the
area with below normal temps forecast into the middle of next
week. High pressure should provide dry weather Tue-Wed with pcpn
probs increasing toward the end of the week, with GFS/EC models
and ensembles showing a low pressure system reaching the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley by Thursday.
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR at AOO, UNV, BFD, JST and IPT will continue through the morning.
As the region is now in post frontal passage, winds are gusty from
the northwest. Conditions will slowly improve late Saturday into
Sunday. IFR will be possible Sunday morning at BFD and JST.
Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Mainly VFR. MVFR with rain showers possible NW.
Tue-Wed...No Sig Wx.
NEAR TERM...Watson/DeVoir/La Corte
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/La Corte