Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 232237
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
637 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the
region dry through at Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will
bring cooler, more seasonable weather to the region by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridge remains in control with slightly deeper layer
moisture over the region tonight. This should result in a bit
milder overnight mins and more widespread valley fog Sunday
morning. Mins will range from the upper 50s north to the mid 60s
far southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Another summerlike sunny day with strong high pressure over the
state. There will be a noticeable increase in humidity with
more uncomfortable conditions as a result. Very warm with some
highs close to 90 across the SE zones. Warm and humid overnight
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An anomalous upper level ridge will remain over the region through
the middle of next week, ensuring a continuation of very warm and
dry weather across central Pa. GEFS mean 850 temps support max temps
in the 80s through Wed, with some locations near 90F in the
Susquehanna Valley. Dewpoints are expected to come up a bit,
resulting in warmer nights and patchy morning fog the first half of
next week.

The remnants of upper level ridge will become squeezed over Pa
Tue/Wed between troughing working into the Grt Lks and Maria off
the east coast. Have included the slight chance of a
diurnally-driven shower across the northwest and southeast corners
of the forecast area Tue/Wed, while subsidence under ridge axis
should keep the bulk of central Pa dry.

All latest guidance indicating no impacts from Maria across
central Pa, as upper trough working in from the Grt Lks causes
this system to take an eastward turn well south of Pa during the
second half of next week. Upper trough and associated cold front
are progged by most models to push through Wed night/Thursday
morning, limiting the instability and opportunity for showers.
Will maintain low POPs as advertised by the 12Z Superblend.

Progressively cooler and generally dry weather appears likely
Thu/Fri, as northwest flow overspreads the region. Bulk of med
range guidance is showing a potent shortwave diving through
the Grt Lks and carving out a deepening trough over the northeast
conus by next weekend. However, the threat of showers associated
with this feature appear likely to hold off through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions overnight. Patchy valley fog possible for a
couple hours near sunrise Sunday.

.Outlook...

Sun...VFR conditions.

Mon-Wed...Patchy AM valley fog possible. Otherwise VFR
conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Ross
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Ross
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Ross



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