Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 030727
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
327 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY INTO MID
WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WETTER AS THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK INTO PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE HAVE A FEW THIN CIRRUS BLEEDING OFF INTO NRN PA FROM AN MCS
DROPPING THROUGH THE LOWER GR LAKES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STILL
ENJOY A MAINLY CLEAR SKY AS THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO DIMINISH
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.

STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CFRONT
WILL HELP TO KEEP BLYR FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING AND SHOULD HELP
TO INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10-15 MPH FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.

A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD SNEAK INTO OUR
FAR NW ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE PART OF OUR CWA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMING
OF THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER THE LATEST SREF...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY
WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG...AND WELL-ALIGNED -06 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING FROM 25-35 KTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...TO 40-50 KTS
INVOF OF THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE UVVEL CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.

EXPECT TO SEE ONE OR MORE BKN TSRA LINES CONTAINING ENHANCED BOWS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AS DCAPES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH AND LCL/S AOA 1KM AGL IN MOST PLACES.

TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE U70S TO L80S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. READINGS COULD
TOUCH 90F IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG THE BEFORE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL ALONG
THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD NOT ONLY ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY FORMS
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE MOVED THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IF IT WILL FORM
HERE OR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS THE EVENT MOVES CLOSER.
HOWEVER THE LOW SITTING OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TUMULTUOUS WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LOCALIZED FOG/BR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AIRSPACE WHERE THE BLYR MAY DECOUPLE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

INCLUDED LLWS AT BFD 06-12Z MON AS 40-50KT SWLY LLJ PRECEDES A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GRT LKS. TSTM COMPLEX MOVG SEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI WILL BRING SOME LYRD MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS
INTO THE NW AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-
SOUTHEAST DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER LKS AND MOVE THROUGH THE AIRSPACE
DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE CFROPA AND A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH
BRIEF IFR VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS
AOA 40KTS. WILL USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 18-22Z TO SHOW TSTM
IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...VFR. VERY ISOLD P.M. SHRA PSBL XTRME NRN AIRSPACE.

WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...GARTNER/STEINBUGL


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