Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 290619
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
219 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track south of Pennsylvania overnight. An upper
level trough will remain just west of the region through early
next week, then high pressure will build over the northeast conus
for the second half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Regional radar at 0615z conts to show light to moderate shower
activity now covering the southeast half of central PA. Isolated
slow moving heavy rainers have dissipated over the northern
mountains after depositing 2"+ over Cameron County and parts of
Tioga County late last evening. Heavy rain threat has largely
waned...but will need to watch evolution of band setting up from
nrn VA and MD extending into the lower Susq River Valley this
morning as backbuilding cells could produce healthy amounts in a
short period of time.

Categorical Pops maintained across central/southern Pa overnight,
but shaved off over western areas with this update as eastward
progress faster than models...as mid lvl shortwave interacts with
anomalous PWATS. Blend of SSEO and latest HRRR supports overnight
additional rainfall of 0.25 to 0.75 inches across the southern
half of the cwa, with near zero in most spots across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Near term mdl data indicates the back edge of the rain will be
exiting the se counties btwn 12Z-15Z Friday with passage of
shortwave. Behind this feature, expect brightening skies during
late am/early aftn. Diurnal heating could support a few late day
tsra, primarily across the Alleghenies/Central Mtns, per latest
GEFS/SSEO. GEFS mean 850mb temps of arnd 16C should translate to
max temps in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Friday night a short-wave trough will move across Indiana and
Ohio spreading showers and possible thunderstorms into western
PA. Central PA will see increasing chances for rain becoming
likely by afternoon. A second wave moves through in cyclonic flow
Sunday keeping the POPs in the 50-70 range with highest chances
over the eastern counties. Short-wave moves to the coast Sunday
night with ridging building in across Central PA helping clear
things out.Monday should be a drier day with sunshine and temps in
the 80s.Hi pres ridge should hold through Wednesday though the
GFS tries to indicate maybe an isolated afternoon/evening shower
or thunderstorm over the Laurel Highlands both days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z TAFS sent.

Band of light to moderate showers to the east of the higher
terrain will keep a wide range of conditions across the area
this morning.

As the system edges further east, VFR conditions should prevail
later today.

Earlier discussion below.

Widespread rain and showers over much of the southern two thirds
of central Pennsylvania this evening, with a few more isolated
convective cells across the northern tier counties. Tough forecast
for aviation this evening, as conditions will likely be highly
variable through the evening and into the overnight.

Latest HRRR continuing the trend of keeping a decent amount of
widespread, mainly light, precipitation across the region. For
TAFs, have generally followed the guidance of a more steady rain
in the south, with showers and rain across central and northern
sections.

Expect most TAFs to be varying from VFR to IFR during the evening
into the overnight. More widespread restrictions overnight, even
if just due to fog rather than rain.

As the system moves out tomorrow morning conditions should rapidly
improve from west to east.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-MON...Additional showers and thunderstorms.

TUE...Improving conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Grumm/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Watson
AVIATION...Grumm/Jung/Martin


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