Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 180630
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
130 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An anomalous upper level ridge will build off the east coast
next week, with a dying cold front pushing into the state on
Wednesday. Abnormally mild conditions will prevail for much of
next week. Temperatures will be more typical of early Spring
than mid Winter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Low pressure and associated shield of snow has exited the state
early this morning. In it`s wake, lingering orographic light
snow continues over the Alleghenies and central mountains. A
blend of near term models support an additional inch or so of
accumulation between 06Z and dawn over the Laurel Highlands,
where winter weather headlines remain in effect. An examination
of model soundings suggest the light snow could end as a bit of
fzdz over the Laurel Highlands around dawn, when cloud top temps
rise above -10C. Bufkit soundings also indicate winds will pick
up across the Laurel Highlands late tonight with gusts to near
25kts, which could produce some blowing/drifting in exposed
locations.

Elsewhere, lingering snow showers/flurries will taper off
overnight with little if any additional accumulation, as high
pressure builds into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Freshly fallen snow and high pressure will make for a pretty
Sunday morning. Enjoy the snow cover while it lasts though
because afternoon temperatures will rise to the lower to middle
40s central and south, and even upper 30s north, promoting
plenty of melting. Early morning stratus over the
north...otherwise mostly sunny skies expected throughout the
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Made minor changes to the fcst package.

Main thing for Sunday night was to lower temperatures...given
new guidance and also that some snow will likely result in
temperatures falling off quickly after sunset.

Took out rain for early Monday morning...except for the far
southwest. This area likely to be above freezing. Points
further east will see rain later on Monday morning...given
time for temperatures to rise above freezing.

QPF for Monday and Monday night will be much lighter than the
event we had Thursday evening, as the warm front lifts quickly
northward.

Overall an anomalous upper ridge builds along the east coast
next week. Heights rise to 588 across southern PA at 500 mb
Tuesday. Much of the area will be well into the 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday...but could warm well into the 70s if winds mix down.

Slightly cooler later in the week...as a cold front slips
southward into the area...as high pressure builds over eastern
Canada and New England. Models keep the basic pattern the
same...so by next weekend...mild conditions could return.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread IFR will continue at all TAF sites due to the heavy
snow bands across the region for at least the next 3 hours.
 Conditions will improve for non elevated TAF sites west to
east between 03Z to 06Z. During this timeframe, IFR is expected
but could improve to MVFR as the night continues. Conditions
should improve across eastern areas shortly after Midnight...as
the storm quickly moves out of the area. Some lower clouds and
light snow showers could linger across the central and western
areas to just after sunrise on Sunday.

Overall...not a bad day for Sunday. Lots of sun by late morning.
Winds will die down by late aft.

Some showers and lower clouds next week...mainly for a brief
time Monday...and later on Wednesday...but much of the time will
be dry with VFR conditions. Also on the mild side.

Outlook...

Mon...Restrictions return with some light rain.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions likely in rain showers, mainly NW at
times...and late Wed elsewhere.

Thu...Clearing north. Still a chance of showers north.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for
PAZ033.
Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
PAZ024.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...DeVoir
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin



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