Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 241131
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
631 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Stationary frontal boundary was draped from Lake Superior to New
Mexico. To the east of the front temperatures were very warm, and
to the west readings were chilly. A few thunderstorms were noted
in central Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Forecast focus on another hot day with record highs.

Today: Same airmass, different day. Based on how hot it got
yesterday with temperatures way above any guidance, don`t see any
reason this will change today. There will be plenty of sunshine
with 850 mb temperatures similar to yesterday (18-19c). As the
convective temperature is reached perhaps an isolated shower may
develop, but for now will not mention in the grids as confidence
is very low. The HRRR model breaks out showers all over the place
but all other models are dry, so it seems the HRRR is the outlier.
Afternoon highs will be in the 90 to 94 range, similar to yesterday.
(See climate section below for record highs).

Dewpoints should remain in the lower to mid 60s with heat index
values in the mid 90s. Once again, these values are below heat
advisory criteria so the day shift can issue another special
weather statement to cover this unseasonal warmth.

Tonight: Mostly clear with lows in the mid 60s at most locations,
along with a light southeast wind.  HAASE

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The synoptic situation remains the same through Monday, and with the
past two days resulting in heat greater than model guidance, I will
go above guidance in the lower 90s Monday since the front remains
west of the CWA. Tuesday, while the front moves through, we should
have a warm start and relative deep mixing at hand again, and I have
increased highs to the mid 70s northwest to the mid 80s central
and east. Shower and thunderstorm chances are retained west but
for the central and east, as we thought last night, the forcing
just appears to fall apart in all models solutions as it
approaches eastern Iowa. Rainfall amounts should average dry to a
few hundredths. Humidity levels will be kept in check as plants
are not tranporating much this late in the year, thus heat indices
will be near the ambient temperature.

By late Tuesday afternoon, the cold front will pass through,
ushering in cooler and drier air. Mixing will remains fairly deep
through Thursday, allowing highs to climb to the lower to mid 70s,
but by Friday and the weekend, a passing upper level trof of cool
air will bring both cloud cover and cooler highs in the lower to
upper 60s to the region. A few showers are also possible, but
without a surface low these should be widely scattered.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High pressure over the Great Lakes will keep VFR conditions in
place today and tonight. This will result in mainly clear skies
and southeast to south surface winds at 10 knots or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Record Highs for September 24...

Moline.........91 in 2007
Cedar Rapids...92 in 1984
Dubuque........90 in 1935
Burlington.....91 in 2007

Record Highs for September 25...

Moline.........91 in 1920
Cedar Rapids...93 in 1920
Dubuque........90 in 1920
Burlington.....92 in 1999

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Haase
CLIMATE...Haase



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