Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 020212
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1012 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

AFTER AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO QUIET DOWN ACROSS MOST
AREAS. STILL A ZONE OF MLCAPE HOWEVER IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG SO
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE REDUCED...WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IN STORE
FOR MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

DEESE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM BACK ACROSS MS/AL. THE HRRR HAD A
GOOD HANDLE THIS MORNING ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION SO LEANING THAT DIRECTING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGH
RES HRRR SHOWS A DIURNAL TREND WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWING THEM CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA THEN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 03Z-06Z. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA FOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
THIS DOES LOOK GOOD AS THE BET MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STAYS ACROSS
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A VERY SIMILAR DAY MONDAY WITH WHEN AND
WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POP BACK UP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GA
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS STILL IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES
ARE PLANNED. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A STORMY NOTE...BUT IS OVERALL
UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. STRONG SHORTWAVE
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO GEORGIA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR AHEAD OF IT. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO BE
MORE ORGANIZED AND PUSH THROUGH THE STATE RATHER QUICKLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY. SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND AT THIS TIME SPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA HIGHLIGHTED IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL STILL BE A BIG PLAYER IN THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. POPS WEDNESDAY TAPER
OFF QUICKLY...THOUGH MAY BE A BIT TOO OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME.

CENTER OF THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT DRY/COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LARGELY DOMINATE OVER THE
AREA. ASIDE FROM SOME MINIMAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
NORTH GEORGIA...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

31

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ALTHOUGH CSG IS BEGINNING TO GET IN ON THE
ACT AS WELL. HAVE HAD TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR ATL FOR AN
HOUR FOR ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE WANE SOON.
THEREAFTER...EXPECTING A QUIET PERIOD THROUGH TONIGHT AND REALLY
MUCH OF MONDAY. EXPECTING A LATE START TO THE TSRA MONDAY AND HAVE
PUSHED BACK PROB30 TO 21Z AND 22Z FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. SOME
MVFR POSSIBLE AT CSG AND AHN TONIGHT AND ISOLD REDUCTIONS TO VSBY
AT ATL TERMINALS DUE TO EARLIER RAINFALL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA TIMING MONDAY.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  83  62  78 /  50  60  60  40
ATLANTA         66  81  62  74 /  50  60  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     60  76  58  70 /  50  70  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    63  80  61  74 /  50  70  70  30
COLUMBUS        67  84  65  79 /  40  50  50  40
GAINESVILLE     64  79  61  73 /  50  60  60  40
MACON           65  86  64  81 /  40  50  50  50
ROME            63  80  60  74 /  40  70  70  30
PEACHTREE CITY  62  82  61  76 /  50  60  60  40
VIDALIA         68  87  68  83 /  30  50  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
AVIATION...DEESE


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