Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 191446 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST ON EASTERLY WINDS. HAD TO UPDATE THE
GRIDS TO INCLUDE THIS CHANCE OF POPS AND THUNDER. LATEST TREND
SHOWS A DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH THESE SHOWERS. MAY SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EAST ZONES LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF AN
OFB CAN LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE THERE. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE ALSO ADVECTED IN FROM THE EAST. HAVE HAD TO CHANGE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DID NOT CHANGE ANY
TEMPS OR DEWPOINTS IN THIS UPDATE.

ARG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM... AS
MODELS AGREE ON A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT CARVING OUT AN UPPER LOW OVER SE GA BY THIS EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE... A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE NE STATES
TODAY BUILDS SOUTHWARD AND ESTABLISHES A CAD WEDGE THAT SPREADS A
COOL/STABLE AIRMASS INTO AT LEAST NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND ON
SATURDAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE BEING REINFORCED ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW SPINS UP A SURFACE LOW OFF
THE GA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT SERVES TO STRENGTHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COOL EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

ALL THIS MAKES TEMP AND POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY... AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIELDS ADD TO UNCERTAINTY ON
CLOUDS AND RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...
THINKING THE APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL WARRANT STARTING
OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING... THEN SPREADING THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POP
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA... AND A CHANCE POP ACROSS CENTRAL GA
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVERHEAD DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ALTHOUGH WILL MENTION THUNDER ALL ZONES TODAY... EXPECT
MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WEDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. THE GREATER
CHANCE TO SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GA TODAY WHERE THE GREATER INSTABILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POOLED. AS THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF OVER SE GA
TONIGHT... EXPECT A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD AMPLE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD HOLD AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT... AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR NOW... WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MAINLY THE SE ZONES OVERNIGHT... BUT MONITOR
CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD FURTHER
INLAND. MAY START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY... BUT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OFF THE GA/SC COASTS... EXPECT THE DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW TO HELP SPREAD SOME DRIER AIR IN OVER AT LEAST NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL GA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND HOLD ONTO A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SE
ZONES ON SATURDAY WHERE THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO HAVE GREATER
INFLUENCE. ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...
NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

AS FOR TEMPS... THE COOL EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY... WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOWS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

39

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY
AND ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH PRECIP EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE FAR SE COUNTIES. MOISTURE ALONG THE SE
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE N ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD AFFECT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS WEAK UPPER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA. THE EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE DIFFERENT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE MOIST CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW
HAVE HELD OFF ON POPS UNTIL FRIDAY.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THEN CLOSE TO OR BELOW NORMAL FROM MONDAY ON.

BDL

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH SCT TO OCNL BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 4-5KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE AGREE
ON MVFR CIGS SPREADING IN OVER ALL TAF SITES BY 09-10Z SAT. THESE
CIGS SHOULD SCT BY 16-17Z SAT. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 7-9KTS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ON SAT... WITH 10G15KTS POSSIBLE BY 15-16Z SAT. PRECIP CHANCES TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF WITH BEST CHANCES NEARER CSG-MCN AND AHN LATER
TODAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  62  82  62 /  50  20  10   5
ATLANTA         84  65  83  64 /  20  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     77  59  79  57 /  20  20  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    84  63  84  61 /  20  10  10   5
COLUMBUS        87  66  85  65 /  20  20  10   5
GAINESVILLE     81  63  81  64 /  20  20  10   5
MACON           85  65  84  62 /  30  20  20   5
ROME            86  62  85  61 /  20  10  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  84  61  83  60 /  20  10  10   5
VIDALIA         85  67  84  66 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...ARG




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