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000
FXUS62 KFFC 130803
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTH GA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING...SOME LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWFA AND MAY IMPACT THE MCN AREA AND SE THROUGH SUNRISE.
ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING BUT HAZE MAY
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS.

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LIKE SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN GA...AND NEAREST THE SHEAR
AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. BL WINDS HAVE PICKED UP FROM
YESTERDAY...SO STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG WITH THE LOWER PWATS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHERN GA WILL BE NEEDED ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

TEMPS TODAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOST
LOCALES IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF SHOT OF COOLER/DRIER AIR MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MED RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE 00Z
ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SFC FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH GA TUES.
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY ON TUES...HAVE GONE ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE
WHICH IS WOEFULLY UNDERDONE...WENT CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE AND
SREF QPF-BASED POP. SHOULD SEE RAPID CLEARING TUES NIGHT. SVR
STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
PRECIP...MODELS HAVING A TOUGH TIME FORECASTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY. 00Z GFS HAS MLCAPE OVER 1500 J/KG OVER MIDDLE GA
AHEAD OF PRECIP AREAS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WEAK AS EXPECTED FOR
JULY FROPA. PW VALUES HIGH BUT NOT ABNORMALLY SO. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR MODEL FORECASTS BUT FOR NOW...NO CLEAR SIGN OF SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDOUS WX APPEARANT.

MOISTURE ALOFT QUICK TO RETURN THURS NIGHT/FRI BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THANKFULLY REMAINS SLOWER TO RETURN. APPEARS DIURNAL
CONVECTION FRI/SAT WILL REMAIN LESS INTENSE BASED ON MODEL
LOW LVL MOISTURE AND RESULTING BUOYANCY FCSTS. SUBJECTIVE THOUGHTS
ARE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED BY MODELS AND THAT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND ADVECTION LIKELY.
HAVE KEPT 20-30 POPS FOR CONVECTION IN FCST THRU SAT.

SNELSON

&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
ONLY ISOLD POPS EXPECTED AT ATL TODAY. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N GA AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL GA.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT.
DIURNAL CU WILL SETTLE BETWEEN 4KFT AND 5KFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POPS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER. WINDS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE/SLIGHTLY SE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE BRINGING THE WINDS AROUND
TO A LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH BY MID MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS TODAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          93  73  95  73 /  20  20  40  30
ATLANTA         92  74  93  73 /  20  20  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     86  67  86  69 /  40  20  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  93  73 /  40  20  60  60
COLUMBUS        94  74  94  74 /  20  20  30  30
GAINESVILLE     91  72  92  72 /  30  20  50  50
MACON           93  74  95  73 /  30  20  30  30
ROME            93  72  94  72 /  40  20  60  70
PEACHTREE CITY  93  72  93  71 /  20  20  40  30
VIDALIA         91  73  94  76 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA