Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 300101 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. SHRA STILL ACTIVE IN NW
CORNER...MIDDLE GA EAST OF KCSG AND FAR SE. LITTLE IF ANY
CONVECTION SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND NONE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA LIKELY EARLY SUN MORNING BASED ON HRRR AND
SOME HIRES MODELS. NOT A SLAM DUNK BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS FAIRLY
HIGH FOR THAT TIME OF NIGHT.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD
KEEPING A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA INTO
NORTHWEST GA BY SUNDAY EVENING AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL REINFORCE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS BY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMAL...ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE IMPULSES LIFT
NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW. THE AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER WEST GA...BUT DO EXPECT SOME
LULLS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE AND HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF
MAV/MET.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA NEXT WEEK.
FOR NOW...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AS IT COMES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...SO CHANCE
POPS STILL NEEDED EVERY DAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WIND SHEAR IN THE GULF IS A LITTLE WEAKER...SO SOME REGENERATION OF
ERIKA IS POSSIBLE.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
PRIMARY CONCERN IS CHC FOR IFR CIGS SUN MORNING AND CHC FOR TSRA
SUN AFTERNOON. DECENT CHC FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING RAIN MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 08Z AT ATL METRO AIRPORTS. COULD SEE CIGS
DROP TO IFR AND LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING...THOUGH CLIMATOLOGY
DOES NOT OFTEN SUPPORT THIS IN LATE AUGUST. STILL APPEARS
POSSIBLE. AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AND SCT
TSRA. HAVE ADDED PROB30 FOR TSRA 19-22Z. AFTER 00Z SHOULD BE
CLEARING QUICKLY. EAST COMPONENT WINDS 5-10KTS EXPECTED THRU FCST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA/IFR CIGS SUN MORNING.
MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS SUN MORNING AND TSRA
LIKELIHOOD SUN AFTERNOON.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  81  67  85 /  40  50  20  30
ATLANTA         69  82  69  85 /  50  50  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     63  76  62  82 /  40  40  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    67  81  66  87 /  40  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        70  87  69  89 /  40  50  20  20
GAINESVILLE     67  78  67  83 /  40  50  20  30
MACON           69  84  69  87 /  50  50  30  30
ROME            68  82  66  87 /  40  40  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  67  83  68  86 /  50  50  20  20
VIDALIA         71  86  70  85 /  60  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...SNELSON



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