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000
FXUS62 KFFC 230526
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY MAINLY ISOLATED AND
POPS LOOK OKAY.

41


.PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED IN PREV UPDATED DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW PRIMARY
FEATURE WITH SUBTLE/WEAKER VORTICITY CENTER IN SC GA SOUTH OF MACON.
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND A LITTLE MORE IN COVERAGE ESP IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE INSTABILITY HIGHER AND NORTH OF WEAK VORT
CENTER...BUT NOT MUCH. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH A LITTLE WEST WEDNESDAY WHILE FILLING BUT WILL
BE PICKED UP BY WEAK TROUGH AXIS ALOFT. EXPECT SIMILAR COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS WED AFT/EVENING. PW REMAINS HIGH SO HEAVY RAIN
PRIMARY THREAT. THURSDAY...LARGER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS WELL
INTO THE STATE SO COULD SEE LARGER PRECIP AREAS AND WITH SOME MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BUT
LIFT AHEAD OF FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS WANES LATER THURSDAY. GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR LATE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 10-15KTS...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS
WILL OCCUR BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF A FRONT. STILL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE ON THE
STRENGTH/PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FRONT
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE WEAKER AND SLOWER THAN
THE GFS. HAVE THEREFORE NOT CHANGED MUCH OF FORECAST...BUT
ADJUSTED SOME POPS AND TEMPS NEAR NEXT TUESDAY WHERE BETTER MODEL
CONSENSUS IS REACHED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW WILL KEEP AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS OR HIGHER THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOES MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND LOWEST RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INFLUENCES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AS LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LONG TERM
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
EACH AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

MODELED INSTABILITIES STILL LOOK TO SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
BRIEF SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT ON THE WHOLE STILL EXPECT
THE MAJORITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWS CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE STORMS
HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT...OR WHERE STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION.

IN GENERAL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LONGWAVE TROUGH.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GA.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH GA. THESE WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING. VFR
SKIES CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA. SCT-BKN IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  90  71  91 /  30  30  30  50
ATLANTA         71  87  72  87 /  30  30  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  82  65  81 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    70  88  70  86 /  30  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        71  89  73  90 /  20  30  20  50
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  40  30  50
MACON           69  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  40
ROME            70  87  70  87 /  30  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  69  88  70  89 /  30  30  20  50
VIDALIA         72  92  73  93 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....31/BAKER
AVIATION...41