Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 301118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
718 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND A STRONG
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN THE 500MB RAP ANALYSIS. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MS AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.

SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD SWATCH OF MUCAPE ACROSS WESTERN AL
AND EASTERN MS. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS WESTERN GA. DO THINK THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH
GA...AND LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH SOME. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY HELP CONTINUE SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING
THE SURFACE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AS THIS AREA WILL RECEIVE THE BEST HEATING AND HAVE THE
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE.

THE MODELS..HI-RES AND SYNOPTIC...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE A SHARP LINE...AND SO
SHOULD THE CLEARING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE POPS AND TIMING OF THE POPS/CLOUDS.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT ISN`T REALLY THAT COLD. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL...WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH THE FIRST OF A FEW UPCOMING
WAVES OVER THE AREA. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
PRECIP TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST ONE
PUSHES INTO W GA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE REST FOLLOWING THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THESE WAVE WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND INTENSITY THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THEY BOTH ALSO SHOW A BIT OF INSTABILITY
WITH THE APPROACHING WAVES SO THINKING ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH FRI. STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME AS THE THUNDER THREAT IS STILL WEAK AT BEST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THESE WAVES COME TO AN END SAT AS
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THIS
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH GA DURING THE DAY SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN SUNDAY. THERE IS GOOD DYNAMICS AND DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THIS FRONT SO MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE OUR FIRST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SAT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS
THINGS GET CLOSER. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE
EXTENDED.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FROPA IS
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES. SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN AND ANY IFR CIGS SHOULD BE BRIEF. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CLEARING OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NW BEHIND THE FROPA
BETWEEN 16Z AND 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
STAY OUT OF THE NW...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL DIP TO 6KT OR
BELOW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          68  43  75  53 /  70   0  10  20
ATLANTA         67  46  74  55 /  90   0  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     61  37  68  46 /  70   0  30  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  42  74  52 /  90   0  30  30
COLUMBUS        72  50  78  58 /  50  10  30  30
GAINESVILLE     65  43  72  52 /  90   0  20  20
MACON           70  46  78  56 /  40  10  20  20
ROME            68  41  73  50 /  70   0  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  68  43  75  54 /  90   5  30  30
VIDALIA         72  50  78  59 /  40  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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