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000
FXUS62 KFFC 221704
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
104 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017



.UPDATE...
Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

The main concern for today continues to be the persistent upper
ridge and hot temperatures. Little in the way of dynamics to force
convection...but old boundaries from Friday and afternoon heating
should be able to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. Have
broad brushed 25 to 30 percent pops for the afternoon. Thunderstorms
should diminish by 06z and Sunday looks like it will be a repeat.

Afternoon temperatures should range in the low to mid 90s for much
of the forecast area today. Dew points were tweaked up again for
today to go with persistence. Current Heat Advisory looks good
except have added another row of counties on the northern side
since these areas were showing HI values of above 105. Models
indicate somewhat lower thickness values for Sunday...however still
looking for only a slight difference in max temperatures.

41

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

The forecast through the extended continues to be characterized by
daily shower and thunderstorm opportunities. At the onset of the
period on Monday, an upper shortwave and approaching cold front will
serve to focus scattered convection, especially by afternoon and
evening during peak daytime heating. Given a moisture rich airmass
with PWATs around 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall can be expected.
Furthermore, as is typical during mid summer with building afternoon
instability, some strong thunderstorms will be possible.

This weakening cold front will continue to linger in the
area through midweek, which will enhance diurnal convection each
day. By late week, the upper levels transition into a northwest flow
pattern. Any disturbances riding into the area will bring additional
shower and thunderstorm chances to the state with the increased
potential for mesoscale convective systems arriving from the
northwest.

High temperatures will not stray too far from normal through the
long-term period, with highs generally near 90 in north Georgia and
into the lower 90s in central Georgia. Low temperatures, meanwhile,
will run a few degrees above normal in the mid-70s with the
exception of cooler temperatures in the mountains.

RW


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. Convection will
be scattered today with most of the development across north GA.
Cu will dissipate this evening but redevelop again and a little
more numerous Sunday afternoon. Winds will be light southwest
through the forecast.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  74  94  74 /  30  20  40  30
Atlanta         94  75  92  74 /  30  20  40  30
Blairsville     89  69  88  68 /  30  20  50  50
Cartersville    94  73  92  73 /  30  20  40  40
Columbus        97  76  93  75 /  30  20  40  30
Gainesville     92  74  91  73 /  30  20  40  30
Macon           97  74  95  75 /  30  20  40  20
Rome            96  74  93  74 /  30  20  50  40
Peachtree City  93  73  92  73 /  30  20  40  30
Vidalia         95  74  94  75 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Harris...Houston...Jefferson...
Johnson...Jones...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Monroe...
Montgomery...Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...
Sumter...Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...
Twiggs...Upson...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...
Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...17