Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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158
FXUS62 KFFC 201121
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
621 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017



.UPDATE...
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Models in good agreement through the short term. Another
unseasonably warm day as the H5 ridge moves over the CWA with max
temps approaching record values today. This ridge will move off the
east coast with the next short wave, currently over the southern
plains, moves into the southeast Tuesday. This is already spreading
high level moisture across the CWA and this will continue into
Tuesday. Atlantic and Gulf moisture will begin spreading into the
CWA late tonight and Tuesday. Stratus/strato cu will develop over
the area late tonight and as the moisture deepens Tuesday along with
isentropic lift...showers will spread into the western and northern
parts of the CWA late Tuesday afternoon. Instability will be weak
and therefore no thunder is expected Tuesday afternoon. With a low
level east flow Tuesday, max temps will be slightly cooler, but
still above normal.

17

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
The extended forecast begins with a frontal system over the area.
This front brings increased chances of showers to the CWA Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday. The forecast models differ a bit on
the strength and intensity of this next system but they both show
it weakening as it pushes into GA. There is very little
instability with it so continuing with showers and no mention of
thunder. This weakening system keeps increased moisture over the
area through the end of the work week so will keep slight chance
to chance pops across the area through then. Another short wave
and associated cold front will move out of the midwest and into
the eastern US Friday evening. This system is expected to have a
little more instability with it so keeping in the mention of
isolated thunderstorms for Friday/Friday Night. This second front
appears to move east of the CWA Sat afternoon and clear things
out for Sunday.

01

CLIMATE...

Records for 02-20

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015
                                        1994        1934
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015
                                        1917
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015
                1986

Records for 02-21

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885
                1925
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958
                                        1971
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast. Some moisture
just off the surface should lift after sunrise producing
FEW035-050 into the afternoon. Otherwise BKN250 through the
forecast. Low level moisture will increase late tonight bringing
sct-bkn strato cu...cigs likely becoming MVFR across ATL after
sunrise Tuesday. Winds will be on the east side through the
forecast with speeds less than 10 kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  50  71  54 /   0   0  20  60
Atlanta         75  54  71  56 /   0   0  20  60
Blairsville     71  44  65  49 /   0   0  20  60
Cartersville    75  51  70  54 /   0   0  50  60
Columbus        77  54  76  57 /   0   0  20  60
Gainesville     73  50  66  53 /   0   0  20  60
Macon           78  51  77  57 /   0   0  20  40
Rome            74  51  71  54 /   0   0  50  60
Peachtree City  77  51  72  54 /   0   0  20  60
Vidalia         78  53  77  59 /   0   0   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17



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