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000
FXUS62 KFFC 270021
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
821 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.UPDATE...

Made a few adjustments to the near-term forecast grids to fit current
trends. Convection diminished rapidly ahead of the front as we lost
daytime heating, however I left at least slight chance POPs in
everywhere overnight as there remains some potential for isolated
convection.

20

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
A cold front currently stretches from the eastern Great Lakes back
through NW Georgia to the Mississippi coast. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed along and ahead of the boundary this
afternoon...and should continue before diminishing during the
evening hours.

Another two areas of precipitation have developed across south
central Georgia this afternoon. The first area, across the SW CWFA,
is in association with an upper low/surface low that has been
meandering across the Florida panhandle for the last few days. The
last area of precip is associated with another upper low/surface low
situated off the coast of SE Georgia. Convection associated with the
upper lows/surface lows to the south should also diminish in
coverage with the loss of heating, but isolated showers and
thunderstorms could linger a little later than in previous nights.

The models have slowed down the southward progression of the cold
front with successive runs. Think the front will set up late this
evening and overnight along or just north of the Interstate 20
corridor. For tomorrow...the boundary may continue to slowly ooze
southward. Convection should fire along and south of the boundary
during peak heating...where moisture/instability is most prevalent.

Cooler and slightly drier air is expected on the back side of the
front tomorrow. Of course, how far this airmass makes it depends
heavily on how far south the boundary is able to make it. Temps
along the Interstate 20 corridor have the potential to be warmer
than forecast for tomorrow, especially if the front stalls to the
north.

Although severe weather is not anticipated through the short term
period, a few thunderstorms could be come strong. They will have the
potential to produce frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds. In
addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
For the start of the long term period...should see frontal
boundary make it all the way through North GA and a good portion
of Central by the time we get to 12Z Wed. Still enough lift
generated by perturbations in the overall upper trough to warrant
continued low pops for the extreme southern tier.

Front clears the entire area by Wed afternoon as East Coast upper trough
continues to deepen. There will be a series of secondary fronts to
push through the area as well...the first of which moves into NW
GA by 00Z Thu. Moisture is limited with this feature...but plenty
of omega indicated and should be able to squeeze out a few showers
over the far north.

Continued wrap around moisture looks to intermittently affect far
northern zones but precip chances look too low for inclusion at
this time beyond the Thu timeframe. Cool air advection pattern
remains in place for much of the period keeping highs right around
normal and lows some 3 to 5 degrees below normal.

Deese

AVIATION...
00Z Update...

Already seeing some isolated MVFR ceilings and visibilities in areas
impacted by earlier convection. Convection is dying and should
remain isolated at best through 14Z. Will see isolated MVFR
conditions becoming scattered with isolated lower conditions
developing through the overnight period. Most TAF sites have a
chance of at least intermittent MVFR or lower conditions between 06Z
and 18Z, however VFR conditions will prevail the majority of this
forecast period. Convective coverage increases after 14Z, mainly
across the southern half of the forecast area. Winds will be light
and somewhat variable in direction through 14Z but will favor east
to southeast, becoming predominately southwest to west by 10-12Z
most areas. Wind speeds increase into the 5-10kt range after 14Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  85  63  84 /  30  40  20  10
Atlanta         70  83  63  82 /  30  40  20   5
Blairsville     64  78  52  78 /  40  30  10   0
Cartersville    67  82  56  82 /  40  30  10   0
Columbus        71  89  67  89 /  20  40  30  10
Gainesville     69  82  61  81 /  30  40  20   0
Macon           69  88  66  87 /  20  40  30  10
Rome            67  82  55  83 /  40  20  10   0
Peachtree City  68  84  60  83 /  30  40  20  10
Vidalia         72  88  70  87 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20