Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240734
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017


.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
A complicated weather pattern is on tap for the CWFA today. An old
frontal boundary is situated across south central/south GA. A
secondary frontal boundary is currently pushing east over far NW AL
and central MS. The northern-most front is associated with a bit
more forcing aloft than the southern boundary, but both fronts
should have waves of low pressure move along them today.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop in association with both
systems today. The northern system may have storms a bit more
dynamically forced, especially as these areas are closer to the
steeper lapse rates/mid level forcing and deep shear. However, the
storms in the vicinity of the southern frontal boundary should have
more surface instability to work with with some marginal deep layer
shear present. The primary severe weather threat should be damaging
wind gusts. However, isolated tornadoes (everywhere) and a few large
hail reports (mainly north) are not out of the question.

For the last 48 hours, the axis of heaviest rainfall has been
across the southern CWFA. Good moisture will still be present, and
some training of storms is possible today. Even though PWATS are
forecast to be between 1.25 and 1.5 inches, locally heavy rainfall
will continue to be a threat - especially over where soils remain
saturated. Given these points, will actually extend the Flash
Flood Watch - in time - to 00z (8pm) this evening.

The airmass will dry out a bit as the behind the cold front on
Thursday. However, a few storms will remain possible across portions
of the northern CWFA as an upper low/trough move through.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Upper low/cold core aloft expected to move across AL/TN and Georgia
Thursday night with the trough axis moving east of the forecast area
btwn 15-18z Thursday. Shortwave ridge of high pressure will maintain
dry and stable conditions through Saturday, with temperatures
quickly bouncing back during the day Fri/Sat, after cooler mornings.

Moisture will gradually increase this weekend as W/SWerly flow
becomes more pronounced across the region ahead of large upr vortex
dropping south from central Canada over the northern Plains/upper
Midwest. By Sunday and into the first part of next week, several
shortwaves will interact with sufficient moisture and low lvl convg
along a west-east oriented frontal boundary to support an increasing
chance of shower and a few thunderstorms. This "system" is not
looking nearly as impressive as what we`ve been dealing with over
the past few days but it will bring the area more rain, on top of
what we`ve had already. Drier air moves in from the northwest late
Monday into Tuesday with a nearly stationary frontal boundary across
north Florida/south Georgia - where lingering chances for
showers/storms will exist Tuesday. Temperatures into early next week
should remain around normal for late May -- lower to mid 80s for
highs and mid 60s for lows.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update... Difficult TAF forecast this period. A couple of
waves of convection are possible today. One in the north and a
second one in the south. Have tried to time the convection in the
north as close as I could with the tempo group, but no major
changes to the timing. For the south, not as confident on timing
so will do prob30s for now. Winds should remain on the west side
during the period, unless affected by thunderstorm outflows. Cigs
are all over the place tonight, but do expect IFR to settle behind
in the rain cooled areas.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  56  74  55 /  80  40  30   0
Atlanta         74  55  72  58 /  80  40  10   0
Blairsville     68  51  68  50 /  80  40  40  10
Cartersville    73  54  73  54 /  80  40  20   0
Columbus        77  57  77  58 /  80  40  10   0
Gainesville     72  55  71  56 /  80  40  40   0
Macon           77  56  76  55 /  80  50  10   0
Rome            73  54  74  54 /  80  40  20   0
Peachtree City  75  55  74  53 /  80  40  10   0
Vidalia         80  61  78  59 /  80  70  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones:
Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fayette...Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...
Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...
Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...NListemaa



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