Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 300234 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
834 PM MDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Wed...

An upper ridge is slowly moving east through Montana this evening.
With this movement there is a push of desert air towards our
region. The associated warm front is now bringing isolated
thunderstorms to Central Montana, west of us. So expect a quiet
night locally. Just a few minor grid edits. Otherwise the forecast
is on track.


Previous Discussion -
Synoptic Setup: northwest flow runs from the dakotas into western
Montana and southern Alberta. to the southwest a large hot high
pressure ridge has developed over Utah/Nevada/Idaho with roots in
the Desert Southwest.

Tonight through Wednesday: Ridge to the southwest will spread
into eastern montana tonight through Tuesday with a warm front
moving through. Aside from the warm front itself there appears to
be no other lift mechanisms and moisture is limited. So only
isolated rain and thunder with limited QPF is anticipated if
anything happens at all. Tuesday night through Wednesday the
center of the Hot high pressure centered itself over eastern
Montana leading to an even further warming trend that previous
forecasted. GAH

.LONG TERM...Wed night through Mon...

Not much change in the going forecast. Upper ridge over the region
midweek will break down into the weekend with an upper trof
pushing through the northern Rockies. Cold front still timed to
move across eastern Montana late Friday or early Saturday with
much cooler weather expected for Labor Day weekend. Ebert

Previous long term discussion...Upper ridge will move to the east
Wednesday Night and Thursday turning the flow aloft to the
southwest. The SW flow aloft will continue to bring warm
summerlike temperatures in the 90s for Thursday which will be 10
to 15 degrees above normal. Weak waves in the SW flow aloft and a
somewhat unstable atmosphere may produce a few thunderstorms. Will
mention a slight chance.

A cold front is expected on Friday as an upper trough moves inland
from the Pacific. While most of the moisture stays to the north of
the forecast area, an unstable atmosphere may allow for a few

Expect breezy and cooler weather on Saturday behind cold front.
Weak waves on SW flow aloft will continue to bring slight chances
for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Models have the
upper trough moving through Eastern Montana either Sunday Night or
Monday. Will maintain a slight chance of showers on Monday with
the possibility of the upper trough being in the area. Forrester



SYNOPSIS: Surface high pressure will exit Northeast Montana this
evening as a ridge moves in over night.

WIND: East to southeast at 5 to 15 kts through tonight...
increasing to 10 to 20 kts Tuesday afternoon.





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