Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 100933
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST AND UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
TO THE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EASTERN MONTANA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT BUT LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA ON THURSDAY. THE
SYSTEM BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING. LOOK FOR A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OR RAIN SHOWERS IF TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
ENOUGH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
STATIONARY FRONT STAYS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE FRONT AND BRING A CHANCE OF EITHER RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. FORRESTER


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH MODELS ALREADY OUT OF
PHASE WITH EACH OTHER SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL LESS THAN
AVERAGE. MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST
PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND THE APPROACHING TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL CUT A BRIEF COLD FRONT THROUGH NE MONTANA
TO REPLACE THE LARGER-SCALE WESTERN STATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
FROM EARLIER IN THIS COMING WEEKEND.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE EC AND GEM MODELS ARE
VERY WET THROUGH OUR CENTRAL CWA WHILE THE GFS AND DGEX ARE VERY
DRY.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST MODELS FILL IN WITH PRECIP THROUGH MOST
OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME CENTRAL CWA LOCATIONS COULD STILL BE
QUITE DRY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME PERIPHERY
LOCATIONS COULD BE QUITE WETTER.

BY MONDAY MORNING...AN OVERALL NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION
AND DRIES THINGS OUT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...ONLY
TO BE FOLLOWED BY MORE MODEL DISAGREEMENT COME MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE EC WANTS TO PUSH THROUGH AN
EMBEDDED UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

FOR PRECIP CHANCES AND TYPES...TRIED TO BLEND THE BEST CONSENSUS I
COULD FIND...USING THE LATEST DEVELOPED TOOLS TO DISCERN THE
TRANSITION TO AND FROM RAIN AND SNOW. THE MAIN IMPACT OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A NARROW BAND OF SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN
SEPARATING LARGER AREAS OF SNOW TOWARD THE NE AND RAIN TOWARD THE
SW. COULD SEE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW FOR OUR CENTRAL AND
NE ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WITH ALL REMAINING MODEL DISAGREEMENTS THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK...JUST TRIED TO BLEND THE OVERALL IDEA WITH SILENT POPS FOR
NOW UNTIL THEY COME BETTER INTO LINE WITH EACH OTHER. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE. A RETURN OF MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS TO KSDY
AND KOLF ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT THAT
MAY HOLD OFF NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.

EXPECT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 5 TO 15
MPH...THEN FROM THE NORTHEAST UP TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. MICKELSON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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