Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 240933
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
333 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Wed...
An upper level ridge positioned over the western U.S. will extend
into the CWA today bringing with it dry weather conditions and
warmer temperatures. The ridge axis will reach the forecast area
by Wednesday which is when temperatures are expected to peak well
into the 60s north of the Missouri River with some 70s to the
south.

An upper level shortwave will drop southeast from Canada and
approach the region with a surface cold front on Wednesday as
well. Meanwhile, 850mb winds over the Little Rockies around
50-55kts at 18Z as evident in the 00z models may mix down as this
system approaches. Certainly, the potential exists for a gusty
afternoon with developing northwest winds for the remainder of
northeast Montana even where 850mb winds may be somewhat lighter.

Wind headlines were assessed with this upcoming event. At least
some potential exist for high wind criteria over the Little
Rockies given previous arguments. Even if it is close, conditions
may create dangerous travel for high profile vehicles, especially
those traveling on HWY 191 south of Malta. That said, a High Wind
Watch has been issued starting 18z on Wednesday for Southwest
Phillips County. For the rest of the CWA, while it looks like a
windy day, and maybe even a very windy day, it remains to be seen
whether high wind criteria will be met. Model consensus winds are
a little lighter and exhibit more spread. Future shifts can always
decide to expand coverage if confidence increases in other
locations as the event draws near.

Of final note, due to the combination of possible strong winds
and low relative humidity values Wednesday afternoon and evening,
the Fire Weather Watch remains in effect as issued by the previous
shift. Maliawco

.LONG TERM...Wed night through Tue...
The extended forecast gets underway Wednesday night with strong
northwest winds continuing across the area. Most 00z model
guidance shows 850mb winds in excess of 40 kts across the CWA,
with some models showing support for 50 kts. CAA behind the cold
frontal passage may help mix down the stronger wind speeds, and so
will keep the High Wind Watch in effect for Southwest Phillips
County through 12Z Thursday morning. It will likely remain quite
windy across the rest of northeast Montana, and if anything, a
Lake Wind Advisory seems probable for the Fort Peck Lake area.

Any lingering rain and/or snow showers Thursday morning will
quickly exit and are not expected to amount to much in total.
Models continue to show the potential for a fairly cold air mass
entering the region in the wake of this system with low
temperatures Friday morning in the teens and 20s.

The forecast was trended toward consensus model blends for next
weekend as the usual spread in solutions becomes more apparent at
larger time scales. Maliawco

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected today across area terminals with high
pressure over the region. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts this
morning will increase this afternoon, ranging from 10 to 15 kts
with a few higher gusts. Maliawco

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Fire Weather Zones 122,
135, 136, and 137 for Wednesday afternoon and evening. As a cold
front pushes through the region, northwest winds will develop and
increase to 20 to 35 mph sustained, with isolated gusts to 50 mph
possible. In fact, wind gusts to 60 mph may occur over the Little
Rockies near such locations as Zortman and the Malta South DOT
site.

The combination of possible strong northwest winds with relative
humidity readings in the afternoon and evening as low as 14
percent will lead to increased fire danger. These conditions can
lead to new fire starts and any fires can then spread quickly in
the direction of wind flow. Those with interests in the area
should closely monitor the forecast and conditions over the next
couple of days should this event materialize as currently
expected. Maliawco



&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for MTZ122-135>137.

High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for Southwest Phillips.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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