Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 301512
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
912 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST WITH NO BIG CHANGES. UPPER
RIDGE STILL IMPACTING THE AREA WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
SOME SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...SO LEFT
POPS ALONE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. BARNWELL

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING SUMMERLIKE WARMTH. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 20-25C WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S IN MOST
AREAS. LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOST OF THE
TIME. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE TONIGHT THAT COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR COULD
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHEAST ZONES.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY NINTH WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS PLACES THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES AWAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
THE RIDGE LARGELY IN PLACE...DO EXPECT CONTINUED SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ENHANCED MONSOONAL FETCH OF MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
TIMING AND TRACK OF SHORTWAVES IS FAVORABLE. FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL MODEL CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS IMPROVES WITH REGARD TO THESE DETAILS. THESE
SHORTWAVES MAY ALSO KNOW DOWN THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD COMES TO A FINISH
ALTHOUGH HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY STILL REACH THE 80S. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MALIAWCO/BMICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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