Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 010928
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
328 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY IS IN A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE MANY AREAS HAVE CLEAR SKIES...THERE ARE SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. SOME OF THE
VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS ALSO DUE TO SMOKE. WITH DEW POINTS CLOSE
TO THE TEMPERATURES... WILL FOCUS ON THE FOG FOR THIS MORNING AND
MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN THE EAST. ALSO...SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT HAS CONTINUED TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA. THIS
WAVE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS LIFTED INDEX FALLS TO -4 AND CAPE REACHES 1000
J/KG BUT THE CHANCES WILL BE LESS THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AS A
STRONG FOCUS MECHANISM IS LACKING.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT ENDING THE
CHANCES OF STORMS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY WILL
PRIMARILY MOVE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SO WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TO THE REGION AND SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG RIDGE DOMINATING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
+22C NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO +28C IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING DOWN
BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL APPROACH THE REGION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION IN TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
WOULD HAVE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH...EVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF SHOWS TIGHTLY PACKED 850MB THERMAL GRADIENT NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN
MIND...HAVE FAIR AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE ON A HOT DAY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID...EVEN UPPER
90S. NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LESS HOT DUE TO EARLY FROPA AND
INCREASED CLOUDINESS OUT AHEAD OF IT. WILL GO WITH UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 IN THOSE LOCATIONS FOR NOW.

EXPECT A STRONG WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT...SOUTH WINDS BECOMING
NORTH AND NORTHWEST...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX DOWN
SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 15-25 MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS ARE OF SIGNIFICANT TO THOSE WITH HOLIDAY PLANS ON THE
NIGHT OF THE 4TH...AND THESE CONDITIONS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROMPT
ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY DOWN THE ROAD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...TIMING/PLACEMENT REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS
POINT...BUT BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WEAK
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HINGE ON SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW. AT THIS POINT THE ONE WITH MOST PROMISE APPEARS TO BE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. MALIAWCO


&&

.AVIATION...
WHILE VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS TODAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AS WELL AS
SMOKE MAY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCED CIGS AND
RESTRICTED VSBYS. EXPECT WINDS DIRECTED FROM THE NORTH AT 5-10
KTS. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.