Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1118 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

An unsettled weather pattern will be in place for the weekend
with multiple systems moving through the region. Mostly dry
conditions return for Monday.


Quick update to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch #270. It has
become clear from radar imagery -- mottled reflectivity and
smooth velocity -- that these storms have transitioned to being
elevated, with only low chances of strong winds still making it
to the surface. Recent RAP model data suggests that the expected
low level jet is just beginning to kick in, meaning that there
has not been time to generate much in the way of even elevated
instability for these storms to feed on. Nonetheless, some heavy
rain will be possible as the storms clear the forecast area in
the next few hours.

Previous discussion >
Showers and thunderstorms are currently approaching from the
west. SPC has put the western area under Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 270 until 2 AM. Latest high res models show the storms
slowly weakening as they dive across the region. Latest NSSL WRF
is doing a fantastic job so have trended grids this direction. New
zones already out.

Previous Previous Discussion->
A few showers will move across northwestern portions of the
forecast area through the early evening hours. A MCV or meso
low approaches tonight along with upper support. There are still
some model differences in the exact location of this low and
subsequently precipitation coverage. Better instability is
across central and southern portions of the region.
Thunderstorms could end up a little further south than some of
the model indications are if the thunderstorms build into the
better instability. In general expect a bow of thunderstorms to
move into western portions of the forecast area beginning around
8pm. Since there is a boundary nearby there is the potential
for an isolated tornado. The main threat would be damaging
winds. Cannot rule out isolated flooding since there will be
heavy downpours, however the precipitation is expected to be
relatively progressive. There is a smaller threat for large


Precipitation will be exiting the area at the start of the day
on Saturday with only a few residual showers and storms south of
the Ohio River. Additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and south of the Ohio River Saturday afternoon
along a frontal boundary. Damaging winds and large hail will be
possible with these storms. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are expected to work into the region overnight associated with a
warm frontal boundary. There is another severe threat during
this time with damaging winds and large hail. There is some
concern for flooding and isolated tornadoes well.


A warm front is forecast to lift north across Ohio Sunday morning
ahead of a surface low pressure system moving across the southern
Great Lakes. There is some uncertainty as to how things will play
out with a possible MCS Saturday night and the effects this may have
on our area into Sunday. Nonetheless, it does look like we should
destabilize as we get more into the warm sector as we head through
the day on Sunday. As the low moves across the southern Great Lakes,
an associated cold front will drop southeast through our area Sunday
night. Ahead of this, will continue with higher chance to likely
pops through the day on Sunday and then taper them off from the
northwest Sunday night as the cold front moves through. Expect highs
on Sunday mainly in the upper 70s.

An upper level low will rotate down across the Great Lakes and then
shift slowly off to the east through mid week. A series of weak mid
level short waves could lead to a few showers across our far north
Monday and Tuesday. There is some model uncertainty on Wednesday
with maybe some slightly stronger energy moving in from the
southwest. For now will just allow for a low chance of showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm later Tuesday night into Wednesday across the
area. The upper level low will weaken as it shifts to the northeast
United States through the end of the week. This will help us
transition into more of a southwest flow pattern with the possibility
of some lower chance pops developing toward the end of the long term
period. Seasonable temperatures will continue through the week with
highs in the 70s.


All TAF sites currently VFR this evening with a line of showers
and thunderstorms approaching from the west. These showers and
thunderstorms will push southeast into the TAF sites this
evening with KCVG/KLUK being on the edge. The complex of showers
and thunderstorms will then likely weaken as they move into the
TAF sites from the west. As the upper level disturbance/
showers and thunderstorms head east of the TAF sites early
Saturday morning IFR/ MVFR cigs will move in. MVFR cigs will be
slow to lift Saturday morning and hang around potentially into
the early afternoon. TAF sites will eventually go VFR Saturday
afternoon with a weak cold front stalling across southern Ohio.
Some high res are indicating showers and thunderstorms along the
weak boundary Saturday afternoon but looking at forecast
soundings shows a CAP in place around 800 MB. This will likely
keep the TAF sites convection free Saturday afternoon. Towards
the end of the TAF issuance the boundary will wash out with a
potent upper level disturbance approaching from the west.

OUTLOOK...Intermittent chances of thunderstorms along with MVFR
ceilings will be possible from Saturday through Monday morning.




NEAR TERM...Haines/Hatzos/Novak
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