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000
FXUS61 KILN 231041
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OHIO FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH INSTABILITY
EVIDENT EVEN AT THIS EARLY HOUR...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO A HUMID AIRMASS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THROUGH
THIS MORNING IN NORTHERN COUNTIES AS IT IS ALL BUT CERTAIN THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...A FEW STORMS
COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF
THICKENING CLOUDS...PRECIPITATION...AND COLD ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST UP TO THE UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT...BRINGING AN
END TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH...SKY COVER WILL DECREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO
THE 50S AND 60S FOR LOWS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING ON A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
RULE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED.

FOR FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE BOOSTED A
BIT BY WARM ADVECTION...GIVING HIGHS NEAR 80

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
APPROACHES OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ACCELERATED THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS DISTURBANCE...YET STILL VARY BY SEVERAL HOURS ON
THEIR FORECAST ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH POPS RAMPING UP INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY BASED ON THE FASTER TREND. KEPT ONLY CHANCE POPS ON
SATURDAY DUE TO TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH ON FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ONCE THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...A REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID WEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW
PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA. THE CMC AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT...WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA AT SOME POINT
LATE SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS VARY ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE FRONT. AM FORECASTING MAINLY LOW CHANCE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COLD
SECTOR. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
CURRENT INDICATIONS BEING THAT HIGHS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND
PUSH ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERSPREADING
THE NW HALF OF OHIO AND THE NRN TAF SITES. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
HAVE PREVAILING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WITH MVFR VSBYS AND VFR CIGS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS
IN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THUNDERSTORM
CONVERGE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS MODERATE INSTBY
DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS RE-DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
TO BE ALONG AND SE OF I-71 CORRIDOR. HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANCE LATER TODAY AS THE FROPA TAKES PLACE.
EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR