Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 292347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL THEN REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE TORNADO WATCH 369. THE WATCH IS
CURRENTLY OUT UNTIL 9 PM FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
VERY WEAK PVA. A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/ LOW WAS ANALYZED IN FAR
EASTERN ILLINOIS. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDED EAST FROM THE LOW RIGHT
AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. A WEAK COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST
FROM THE LOW INTO KENTUCKY. ALONG THE WARM FRONT SFC TO 1 KM SRH WAS
AROUND 200 M2/S2. GIVEN THESE SHEAR VALUES TORNADO WATCH 369 HAS
BEEN ISSUED.

STORMS HAVE ALSO STARTED TO FIRE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT HAS STARTED TO
PULL NORTH AND IN THE WARM SECTOR CAPE VALUES HAVE RAPIDLY STARTED
TO RISE. CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE AREA ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOANALYSIS. LATER THIS EVENING THE
WEAK LOW WILL PULL EAST ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING A SLOW
TEMPORARY END TO RAIN. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE SCATTERED. RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY WILL COME FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECASTED TO
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS. INSTABILITY TUESDAY IS ALSO
FORECASTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY. NAM IS SHOWING CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG WHILE THE GFS IS ONLY SHOWING VALUES AROUND 600
J/KG. SFC TO 1 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO AGAIN DIMINISH AS THIS
NEXT SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THE FRONT
WILL THEN START TO LOOSE STEAM AND STALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH TRYING
TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST. BEHIND THE FRONT LOWER
PWAT AIR WILL HELP TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HIGHER PWAT AIR WILL START TO POOL. GFS IS SHOWING PWATS LESS THAN
1.00" BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2.00" AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS WILL DETERMINE WHO
GETS THE MOST RAIN. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WEST COAST RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL
BLEND/CURRENT FORECAST WITH THIS...RANGING POPS FROM LOW CHANCE
NORTH TO LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTH. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE...WE SHOULD GET INTO A PCPN MINIMUM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT BECOMES MORE
DIFFICULT TO TIME/PLACE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE TROUGHY PATTERN.
WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN SOME LOWER CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMALS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A MEAN TROF OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
NE US. EMBEDDED S/W HAS INDUCED A SFC LOW WHICH WAS LOCATED OVER
SW OHIO. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LKLY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE KCMH/KLCK TAF SITES.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTN WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS THE AREA.

VARIABLE WINDS WILL BACK FROM WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS
LATE TONIGHT. SW-W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS TUESDAY
AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS.


OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...HAINES
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR





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