Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270830
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
430 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving low pressure system and trailing cold front will
approach the area today and gradually move through tonight into
Friday. High pressure will build in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and thunderstorms moving across Indiana early this
morning are generally weakening. Expect this trend to continue
through daybreak. But then there may be redevelopment with that
weak impulse as it continues east.

Low pressure in northern Illinois this morning will slowly work
towards the area this afternoon. As it does, expect further
development of showers and thunderstorms.

There will be considerable cloud cover which will limit
instability. Forecast soundings show that what CAPE is available
is of the tall, skinny variety with high precipitable water and
deep warm cloud depth. So locally heavy rainfall will be a
possibility.

Forecast highs are a bit below guidance due to cloud cover and
expected precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low pressure and cold front will sag into the region tonight but
linger until forcing from a strong short wave dropping through
the Great Lakes helps push it off to the southeast on Friday.

Heavy rain potential will persist into the evening and then
decrease. Some convection will likely continue through the night
ahead of the boundary. Expect an increase in activity on
Friday, especially in eastern counties, with the approach of
better, deeper forcing. This will all start to move out of the
area later in the day.

Warm and muggy conditions will continue tonight into Friday
with a limited diurnal range.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As an upper level disturbance begins to exit the area Friday night,
expect precipitation chances to gradually taper off.  There is not
much in the way of instability therefore do not have any thunder
mention Friday night.

High pressure and dry conditions will work into the area for the
weekend and into next week.  Cooler below normal temperatures will
be in place for the weekend with a gradual warming trend in the
temperatures through next week.

Increased cloud cover during the day a few of the days to account
for cu development.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early part of the TAF period will remain tranquil with few to
scattered cumulus and extensive high clouds. Beyond 12Z
conditions become unsettled with quite a bit of uncertainty in
timing and placement of showers and thunderstorms.

Convection across Indiana will likely continue to track east
across the region. Initially this will be weak, but then
activity should become more robust later in the morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop through the
day and continue into the evening ahead of a slow moving low
pressure system and cold front. Given the circumstances, have
used a broad brush in precipitation, although keeping conditions
VFR except during periods when it appears precipitation will be
more persistent. But when storms impact the terminals, there
will be a good chance that visibilities drop to IFR due to heavy
rain. Moistening low levels will lead to ceilings dropping to
MVFR late in the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings likely late tonight into Friday.
Low ceilings may linger into Friday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...



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