Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 272014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
414 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING WARM AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SHRA/TSRA FINALLY POPPING IN MOSTLY THE SOUTEHRN FCST
AREA...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS NORTH OF COLUMBUS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH TRU LOCATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR THE MOST PART STORMS
WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THOUGH ASSOCIATED ALSO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS
AFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE...RANGING FROM LOW 60S NORTH TO CLOSE
TO 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO AGAIN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY. BUT MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND
ASSOC S/WV WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE RIDGE AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH
A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN. SO WHILE THE RIDGING WILL BRING INCREASING
TEMPERATURES...NOT QUITE AS WARM AS THE RECENT CONDITIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID DAY FRIDAY AS THEN INCREASING INSTABILITY
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE TROUGH
ADVANCES TOWARD AREA. BROUGHT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MAINLY THE WEST...AND THEN SOME
EVIDENCE ON THE NAM/GFS YIELDS LL CONVERGENCE FRI NIGHT LIFTING NE
FROM KY INTO SOUTHERN OH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH WPC GUIDANCE FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS WERE NOT TOO
FAR OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION...BUT THEY WERE PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER
WITH SOME OF THE S/WV ENERGY TO AFFECT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE
CURRENT SOLUTION OFFERS SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SATURDAY...WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE NEAR IF NOT JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD LEAVE OUR
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS FOR THE DAY. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...WE SHOULD SEE A VERY WARM/MUGGY DAY.
LOOKS LIKE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING S/WV FROM THE MID MS
VLY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN LOCATIONS BY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A TANDEM OF S/WVS WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYS OUT NE TO SW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
S/WV IS FORECAST TO ROUND NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS AND SOME
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/LOW LEVEL WEAK FORCING WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BROUGHT POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT. CLOUDS AND
PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM SATURDAY NIGHT BUT COOLER ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS EAST/SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL WANE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ENERGY EXITS
TO THE EAST. ON MONDAY...WE WILL SEE LOW CHANCE POPS AS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE REGION.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN AS WELL

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CDFNT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP S THROUGH THE TAFS. A FEW SHOWERS
POPPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM KILN UP TOWARD KRZT. FEEL THAT THE
CHC OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SO DRIED OUT THE TAFS.

CU IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MIAMI VALLEY. SOME
OF THIS CU SHOULD GO BROKEN AND MAY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS.

AROUND SUNSET THE SKIES SHOULD GO SCATTERED. EXPECT FOG TO
REDEVELOP AFT 06Z...WITH KLUK GOING DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR
FOG IS POSSIBLE AT OTHER LOCATIONS.

AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY. BKN CI
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN TAFS.


OUTLOOK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES





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