Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KILN 291825
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TODAY...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS. A WARM
FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND AS SUCH...HAS KEPT HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT A BIT HEADING INTO THIS EVENING BUT MOST
OF THE DAYS HEATING WILL HAVE ENDED BY THIS TIME. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC LOW OVER WV TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH SFC
BOUNDARY SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO THE TN VLY. IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. 12Z ILN
SOUNDING SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION JUST
BELOW 850 MB. ALSO...DRIZZLE BEING REPORTED ACRS SRN OHIO.
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW THESE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF DRIZZLE THRU THE MORNING AND THEN
ALLOW FOR IMPROVEMENT. TEMPERATURES TO SHOW GOOD RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 70S FAR SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE
IS OBSERVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AN H5 LOW WILL BEGIN TO KICK OUT OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN GULF COAST STATES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH
AS A WRMFNT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY...PUSHING AN
LARGE AREA OF RAIN INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. KEPT CATEGORICAL
POPS GOING ON SATURDAY.

THE FRONT LIFTS INTO SRN OHIO SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSHING THE BETTER
LIFT INTO NRN OHIO. WITH MUCH OF THE FA WARM SECTORED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE PCPN WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SUNDAY...A SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FA. POPS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THE PCPN AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON
SATURDAY...AS THEY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NW COUNTIES TO THE
UPPER 60S IN THE NE KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM
SATURDAY NIGHT...RANGING IN THE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS. THE NW COUNTIES WILL ONLY MAKE THE LOWER
60S...BUT COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL MAKE THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BEGIN WITH A COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE AREA
WITH BOTH THE GFS AND EURO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS WILL BE
THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER MONDAY MORNING THE EURO AND GFS QUICKLY
DIVERGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOTH THE EURO AND GFS DIVE A SHORTWAVE
SOUTH NEAR NORTH DAKOTA/ MINNESOTA WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER.
THE GFS KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO CLEAR THE AREA MONDAY. THE EURO BREAKS
THE SHORTWAVE OFF AND RETROGRADES IT WEST. A WEAK BLOCK THEN SETS UP
OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. THE EURO SOLUTION THEN BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
TOWARDS SOUTHERN OHIO KEEPING THE AREA WET THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS A DRIER MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. HAVE KEPT THE GRIDS
TRENDED THIS DIRECTION UNTIL MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY IS AVAILABLE.

TOWARDS THURSDAY THE EURO AND GFS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE EURO SOLUTION IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ALLOWING BROAD SCALE RIDGING TO
MOVE IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH. EITHER WAY HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CIGS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME HEATING CONTINUES. SOME OF THE FARTHER NORTH LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN WITH MVFR CIGS TO 00Z TONIGHT BEFORE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA AND THE LOW CIGS LIFT. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY 12Z AND AFTERWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT
IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HAINES
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.