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000
FXUS61 KILN 061502
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1002 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY BEFORE COMING
TO AN END TONIGHT. ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LINGERING
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...BUT MAY STILL HAMPER TRAVEL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAJOR WINTER STORM TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA. BROAD SWRLY
FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMGRY SHOWING IMPULSE
LIFTING NE FROM THE SRN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY DURG AFTN/EVENING HOURS. THE AREA IS ALSO IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 180 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH PROVIDES
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TSECS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF
FGEN DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION INCREASE IN
INTENSITY DURG THIS AFTN IN RESPONSE TO THIS FRONTOGENESIS. RADAR
MOSAIC BACKS THIS UP SHOWING ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIP POISED TO
OVERSPREAD ILN/S FA THIS AFTN. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AS
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO COOL DOWN. EXPECT TO SEE
HEAVY BAND OF SNOW DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING. HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE GRIDS.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW ALL SNOW WEST OF I-71 CORRIDOR FROM NEAR CVG
TO NEAR ILN TO CMH. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NW TO THE SE. HAVE INCREASED
SNOW TOTALS WHERE HEAVIEST BAND IS EXPECTED JUST WEST OF I-71 CORRIDOR.
HAVE CONTINUED PREV HEADLINES FOR WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. EXTREME
SE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME MORE RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING PRECIP TOWARD EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THIS LOCATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LIFT PUSHES E. A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS E FOR SATURDAY. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
GO CLEAR OUT.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STARTING A LITTLE
LATER. BACKED OFF THE PCPN UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. INDICATIONS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE A LITTLE COLDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE
A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN LATER.
THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODELS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ANY HEADLINES.


TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...IN THE MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN TO 15-20.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEYOND MONDAY...BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
APPEARS DRY BUT FRIGID. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TOO
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY AN EXPECTED SNOWPACK (WITH MIN TEMP
BULLSEYES WELL INTO NEGATIVE NUMBERS ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODELS).
HOWEVER...THE TREND IS CLEAR...AND BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY GET (BARELY) ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE ILN CWA
EARLY ON MONDAY...SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT...EVEN FOR MAXES. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE
DRAWN IN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FZRA IS A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AT TAF ISSUANCE THIS MORNING WITH
DAYTON ENTIRELY CHANGED OVER TO SN AND EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
TODAY. I-71 CORRIDOR WILL HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF FZRA MIXED IN
WITH SN AND PL AT TIMES BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SN ENTIRELY LATER
THIS MORNING. A FEW BREAKS IN THE RADAR RETURNS MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED
THIS MORNING.

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT BEST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SNOW OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
18Z AND 2Z WITH A HEIGHTENED CHANCE ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR FROM
19-23Z.

LOW CIGS WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW BUT VSBYS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TONIGHT. CLEARING MAY
OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY AT KDAY AND LATER FOR
REMAINING TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH EXCEPTION OF DAYTON. SIGNIFICANT ICE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>073-077>080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035-074-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>097.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...AR/SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS