Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 300131
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
931 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS WANED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...AS
WAS REASONABLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND DIURNAL NATURE
OF THE ACTIVITY. TO THE WEST...AN AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
GREATER DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS
AROUND FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MORNING.

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOT APPEARING
LIKELY TO DROP MUCH (IF AT ALL) OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED
BY AROUND A DEGREE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH THE FAIRLY WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA...MORE
MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS IS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A LITTLE
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY...SO HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE...WHILE MAINLY AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LEFT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY.

KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE H5 TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE...SHOULD BE RENEWED
CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AREA AGAIN
DIMINISHING WITH DIURNAL PATTERN. RIDGING TO BEGIN BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY...SO JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FCST
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND MORE PERSISTENT MID 80S FOR MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING JUST TO OUR EAST TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A POP UP AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACRS ILN/S WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S.

S/W TO DROP SE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AT MID WEEK WITH RIDGE AXIS
RE-ESTABLISHING TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO HAVE INCLUDED
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN.

WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK...A NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED FORCING
WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. DO
TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING HAVE LIMITED POPS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTN. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 80S.

THE MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ACT TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FCST DRY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE...WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN PERHAPS PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS NEAR DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY. WITH RAIN HAVING AFFECTED MOST OF THE TAF SITES...AND
MOIST CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME
LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW MAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL DISORGANIZED
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL/SITES
NEAR TERM...JDR/HATZOS/SITES
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS



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