Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 260110
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
910 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016
A weak frontal boundary will drop south through the region tonight into
Friday. This will bring temporary relief from the heat on Friday.
However, an upper ridge building back over the weekend will keep
temperatures above normal.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity back across Indiana has
been progressing east this evening but weakening as it does. This
is in line with most of the hi res models which keep our area
primarily dry overnight. There is a narrow cu field stretching
from near Indianapolis to north of Columbus so suppose it is
tough to rule out a stray shower developing across our northwest
as we head into the overnight hours. However, think the chance is
low enough to go with a dry forecast tonight. Expect lows tonight
ranging from the mid to upper 60s northwest to the lower 70s in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday, high pressure will be trying to build in. Once again a
few outlying models try to pop some showers on Friday. Prefer to
follow the consensus and go with a dry forecast. Will increase
cloud cover however. Highs on Friday will be slightly cooler,
ranging from the mid 80s in the north to around 90 along the Ohio
Friday night into Saturday the H5 ridge will build back to the
north into the region. This will allow for the heat and humidity
to build back in a little. Went dry for Saturday, but bumped highs
back up into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Large area of high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will keep a
westerly flatten out as a shortwave crosses north of the Great Lakes
region on Sunday night. West-southwest flow at this level will turn
westerly through the early part of the week and then the tropical
system muddies the forecast significantly. European bombs the low
into the Florida panhandle whereas the GFS barely scratches the
surface pressure field and WPC forecasts are trending towards a much
weaker surface field with the positioning of the European
Regardless of the tropical evolution, a surface boundary should
migrate from the I-70 corridor on Monday towards the Ohio River
vicinity by mid week. A stronger cold front is expected to push
through the region on Wednesday as a large area of surface high
pressure builds in Canada. This specific evolution remains to be
seen and is likely to see large forecast shifts between now and then.
Numerical guidance is not showing much of a day to day change with
mid 80s to low 90s for highs and overnight lows in the upper 60s to
low 70s. Diurnal heating would maximize the thunderstorm threats in
the late day, but the presence of a surface boundary and moist
airmass may necessitate keeping some low chance of storms through
the overnight hours.
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cu has been dissipating across our area early this evening and
this trend should continue over the next couple of hours. The
higher res models are suggesting that some remnants of the spotty
convection back to our west across eastern Illinois and northwest
Indiana may make it into our western area through the early
morning hours. However, based on the current overall lack of
coverage and the fact that it should be weakening as it approaches
our area, will keep the TAFs dry overnight. Forecast soundings and
some of the latest guidance are hinting at possibly some stratus
development late tonight into Friday morning. The low level
moisture is not all that great though so confidence is not
terribly high in this. Will generally stick with the ongoing
forecast that allows for some sct-bkn stratus development late
tonight along with some MVFR vsby restrictions. Conditions should
improve through late morning with VFR conditions expected through
the remainder of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday and Tuesday.