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000
FXUS61 KILN 010606
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
206 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level low pressure system will lift slowly
northeast across the Great Lakes region through the weekend. This
will result in the continuation of scattered showers and
thunderstorms and slightly below normal temperatures through
Sunday. A warmer and drier airmass will build into the region
through the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Most of the shower activity will be confined to northern portions
of the area with some lighter shower activity across western
portions of the region. There is some limited instability
therefore have isolated thunder in the forecast as well. Generally
expect an overall decrease in precipitation activity overnight.
Not expecting temperatures to drop too much more overnight with
some cloud cover, however expect more breaks overnight than the
past couple nights. This will also lead to the potential for some
fog. Already seeing some locations visibilities dropping off and
therefore have patchy dense fog in the forecast and HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low will slowly lift north northeast from Indiana
on Saturday up into southern Ontario through the day on Sunday. As
spokes of energy rotate around the low, expect scattered showers
and some isolated thunderstorms to persist across our area through
the weekend. The best chance for pcpn will be Saturday afternoon
as we destabilize some through the day and the low lifts across
northwest Ohio. Expect decreasing chances then Saturday night
into Sunday as the low moves off to our north, but will still
linger at least some slight pops through the day on Sunday. Highs
on Saturday will be mainly in the mid 60s, warming into the upper
60s to around 70 by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term will open up with a closed low ejecting off to the
east over New England with weak mid level ridging building into
the region. The latest 30.12Z CMC, GFS, and ECMWF have come into
pretty good agreement with the timing of the low pushing off the
coast and away from the CWA. As the weak ridging forms over the
area another upper level system will be pushing into the Mountain
West which will push the next cold front into the area Friday.
Model discrepancy continues to be an issue for the second part of
the next work week though. The 30.12Z ECMWF and CMC both try to
linger some of the energy from the upper level low over New
England under weak ridging. This in turn helps to block
progression of Matthew and push the cold front through the area
slightly quicker.

Regarding more of the details, a general warming trend is expected
to commence starting Tuesday thanks to mid level ridging and a
warming low level thermal profile. 850 mb temperatures Monday are
forecasted to be around 9 degrees C and warm towards 13 degrees C by
Wednesday. This would support high temperatures in the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees, or about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year. PWATs also fall below 1.00" so am expecting dry weather Monday
through Wednesday.

For the second half of the extended models begin to differ on the
timing of the passage of a surface cold front and the circulation of
Matthew. The ECMWF has a trough axis push through the area Friday
morning supporting a cold front passage Friday morning as well. The
GFS on the other hand supports the cold front passing through Friday
evening. In general, PWATS (~1.2") and upper level lift appear to be
sufficient for showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage
but given low confidence in timing have kept PoPs in the chance
category for now. Have also kept grids reflecting more of the ECMWF
and CMC solution.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Slow moving upper low centered near the OH/IN border will
continue to affect TAF sites. While conditions are VFR to start,
MVFR ceilings, visibilities and showers may develop in persistent
low level moisture, and a few thunderstorms may occur this
afternoon in the vicinity of DAY, CVG and LUK as instability
increases. VFR is expected after 00z Sunday under decreasing
instability and forcing as the upper low lifts north to Michigan.
Winds are forecast to stay under 10 knots out of the south.

OUTLOOK...IFR ceilings possible Sunday near 12z.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...Coniglio