Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252003
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
403 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The short term period looks to be quite active, with very good
chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow
night. A cold front that will be moving across the central and
southern Mississippi valley tonight will be our weather maker.
This boundary will interact with the warm and moist air mass that
is already in place across the region and will spark showers and
scattered thunderstorms as it moves quickly across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys. The system should be progressive enough to keep
hydro issues at a minimum, although rain could be locally heavy
for short periods of time with any thunderstorms or intense
showers. The rain should taper off across the area late Sunday
night into early Monday morning, but a few showers will likely
linger across the area, as another weather system will be
following on the heels of the one that moves through the area
tonight. A few of the storms on Sunday may contain strong gusty
winds and small hail. Temperatures will continue to be well above
normal, with lows in the 50s the next two nights and highs around
70 on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The period is expected to begin with a shortwave trough that will
have affected the region in the short term departing to the
northeast while another shortwave trough will near the Mid MS and
lower OH Valley regions. In fact, an upper ridge axis is expected
to be moving across the area at the start of the period. The
region should begin the period in the warm sector as the near term
boundary is expected to have stalled out across the area as
surface low pressure moves northeast toward the Ozark region
before reaching near the confluence of the OH and TN Rivers on
Monday evening. The shortwave trough should work across the area
on Monday night into early on Tuesday with the surface low
tracking northwest of the area. Once the low is northeast of the
area on Tuesday, the cold front is expected to move across the
area. Thus, the period should begin on the unsettled side though
much of Monday could end up dry with a relative lull in between
the shortwaves. Shower chances will increase on Monday evening and
into Monday night and linger into Tuesday night as the upper
trough moves through the area and the cold front pushes south and
east. A few thunderstorms are also possible on Monday night.

From late Tuesday into early on Thursday, surface and upper level
ridging will move in and bring drier weather for midweek. The GFS
and ECMWF runs differ in the strength of the upper ridge with the
ECMWF generally more amplified. Thus how mild the airmass will be
in uncertain with the GFS about 8 degrees F or more colder than
the ECMWF for Wed to Thu. At this point, it appears that
temperatures will average above normal both days and did not stray
from the in between Superblend during that period given the
uncertainty.

The next in a series of closed lows or shortwaves is expected to
have moved from the Four Corners region to Plains from Tuesday
through Thursday. Uncertainty remains in the details with this
system, but the consensus is for another period of shower chances
by Thursday night into Friday possibly lingering into Saturday
pending its strength and timing. Despite the rain shower chances
the second half of next week should average above normal for
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected to hold until around 9Z at LOZ and
SME. Scattered to numerous rain showers, and few thunderstorms,
should be moving into the area around LOZ and SME by then. JKL and
SYM can expect the showers and storms around 12Z, with SJS not
seeing any precipitation in the vicinity until near the end of the
TAF period. Any storms or intense showers could bring MVFR, or
locally worse, conditions to any given airport. As for the rest of
today, southerly winds of around 10 mph could gust to around 20
mph through 22Z. BKN to OVC layers of high level cloud cover will
be in place to begin the TAF period, but will gradually be
replaced by middle and low level clouds as a weather system
approaches from the west this evening and tonight.

South to southwest winds will pick up and gust to around 20 kts
over much of the area during the day Today.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR


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