Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 040023 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOWN OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY
IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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