Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO
ANY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES BACK THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR LIKE THE BEST DAYS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HIGHS APPROACHING 90.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN PEAK ON SUNDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN
BORDER. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION
OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ALTHOUGH FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW






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