Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231233 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ANOTHER LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROLLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WHILE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING IS MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS.

RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH HAS ALLOWED FOR MILDER
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE BROADER VALLEYS OUT
WEST AS WELL AS RIDGETOPS...WHILE SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS REMAIN
DECOUPLED IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN OVERHEAD WITH THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE THROUGH THE COLUMN.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE GULF
COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AND THEN SWINGING MORE NORTHEAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONGLOMERATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE
DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND LIFTING NORTHEAST...REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY
MONDAY.

THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS AID FROM THE
DAMPENING MID-LEVEL VORT COMING OUT OF THE GULF REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SWATH OF RAINFALL...EXITING IT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY THIS EVENING. AM MORE INCLINED TO
SIDE WITH THE SREF...WHICH HAS TRENDED SLOWER IN RECENT RUNS. HAVE
THEREFORE HUNG ONTO POPS LONGER INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE A WARM
SECTOR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS MORE LIMITED AND THE FRONT WILL
BE SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE WEST AND LOWER ONES IN
THE EAST.

THE BIGGER IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS...AS MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL JETS RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN NOW AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LOOKS TO BE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH LOOK ACHIEVABLE GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SUCH WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL IN AN SPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MODEL AGREEMENT RESIDES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE DRIEST PART
OF THIS FORECAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHARP TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS
LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND COULD
DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
THE TRACK AND THE ECMWF FARTHER WEST. EVEN THE MOST WESTERN TRACK OF
THE ECMWF WOULD BRING MARGINAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS A BLEND OF THE TWO SCENARIOS WOULD LIKELY KEEP US DRIER.
IF PRECIPITATION DOES REACH EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT MAY BE PRIMARILY
RAIN AS IT LOOKS TO FALL DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY
THANKSGIVING...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF QUICK GLANCES OF WARM AND COLD
AIR AS THESE SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE REGION. SIMPLY PUT...MODELS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN
THE ACTIVE PATTERN...OPTED TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORTUNATELY...THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION
LIGHT. IT DOES LOOK A BIT MILDER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...SO PLAN TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW IN THE PERIOD
LOOKS LIKE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING.
AGAIN...PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH TIME AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN TAPER OFF BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY RETURNING TO VFR BEFORE AN APPROACHING
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OUT FROM
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SSW WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. AT THE
SURFACE...WITH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







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