Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 310817
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
317 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016
Surface high pressure remains in control over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Weakness in upper ridging remains over the area. Earlier
MCS that moved across central Mississippi has for the most part
dissipated. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are just off
the Louisiana coast. Temperatures adjacent to large bodies of
water were in the lower 80s at 2 am, with readings elsewhere in
the middle and upper 70s.
See little reason to diverge from previous forecast thinking. This
means that diurnally favored convection will develop each day.
Over land, convection should generally develop during the late
morning to early afternoon hours and wane toward sunset. Over the
coastal waters, late night/early morning hours will be favored.
Little day to day change in temperatures, although individual
locations could bust a high temperature forecast if convection
affects them early enough in the day. 35
As was the case in the short term, no major changes in forecast
scenario. Little day to day change until pattern changes. Current
tropical disturbance 97L is currently forecast to move through
the Caribbean during the week, but is not expected to be a threat
to the area. 35
VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals today. However,
the risk of convection forming during the afternoon hours will
continue. VCTS wording will be included to reflect this risk. Any
convective impacts will be short-lived with a brief period of
reduced visibilities and gusty winds expected. 32
A broad ridge of high pressure will remain over the coastal waters
through the end of the week. This will keep a general southeast
wind direction of 5 to 10 knots in place. Near the immediate
coastal interface wind direction will be dominated by
seabreeze/landbreeze cycles with a weak offshore component possible
each morning before turning back onshore by the afternoon. The
one caveat with this forecast is the prospect of a tropical low
possibly moving through the Bay of Campeche region. Wave models
are indicating some higher seas moving in by Friday due to swell
emanating from this tropical low. Currently, seas are forecast to
rise to 4 to 6 feet in the outer coastal waters by Friday. 32
DSS code: Green.
Activities: Jefferson Parish public safety support for Grand Isle.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 95 74 93 74 / 50 20 50 20
BTR 95 75 94 75 / 50 20 50 20
ASD 95 77 93 76 / 40 20 50 20
MSY 94 78 93 78 / 40 20 50 20
GPT 93 77 91 78 / 40 20 50 20
PQL 95 74 92 74 / 40 20 50 20