Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 302031
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
331 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016
Stacked upper low near Louisville Kentucky this afternoon with
upper ridging over the western Great Plains states. Some scattered
cumulus clouds to the north of Interstate 12 with clear skies
elsewhere. Temperatures generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s
with dew point readings in the 50s.
Upper low will slowly move from the Ohio River Valley this
afternoon to the Lake Huron/Lake Erie region by Sunday, then over
New York Monday as the Great Plains ridging moves east. A
shortwave will move under the upper low across the area Saturday
night, but with a very dry airmass, no significant precipitation
is expected over land through Monday. There could be a few showers
in the coastal waters on Sunday. Will trend toward the cooler
guidance on overnight lows through Sunday night. Will use a blend
of guidance on high temperatures. 35
A fairly dry pattern is expected to continue through much of next
week. An upper low over the northern Rockies early next week will
gradually move into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by the end of
the week. This will force the upper ridge eastward. A shortwave
associated with the trof will pass to the north of the area on
Thursday. A cold front associated with the shortwave will move
through the area on Thursday. Questionable whether moisture levels
will increase enough to produce significant precipitation with the
frontal passage. For now will tend toward the drier GFS solution
and only carry rain chances in the 20-30 percent range on
Thursday. Not much difference in the high temperature forecast
between the 2 medium range models, but will trend toward the
cooler GFS solution toward the end of the week on low
VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Saturday.
A ridge of high pressure will settle over the Gulf coast states
through the weekend into early next week. An inverted surface trough
is expected to gradually develop over the western Gulf of Mexico the
next few days. This trough may interact with an upper level
shortwave trough that is expected to move across the central Gulf
coast region on Sunday, and there could be enough moisture to
develop a few showers over the open gulf waters west of the Miss
River. Otherwise, a nearly status quo pattern is expected through
the middle of next week with east to northeast winds mostly 5 to 12
knots (slightly higher over western waters on Sunday and eastern
waters on Wednesday) and seas mostly 1 to 2 feet.
DSS code: Green.
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 56 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 57 83 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 57 84 60 86 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 64 83 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 60 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 57 83 58 86 / 0 0 0 0