Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 061918
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
218 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE LOUISIANA-
ARKANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. AT UPPER LEVELS...OMEGA BLOCK IN
LACE WITH LOBES NEAR WASHINGTON DC AND OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. NO CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AWAY FROM MARINE
INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND BE CENTERED EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST BY MONDAY.
WE WILL START TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW TOMORROW...BUT NOT REALLY SEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL ABOUT MONDAY. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTHWEST THIRD...WHICH COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW NIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE WHERE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL...AND WITH SEASONABLY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE...IT SHOULD
BE A RATHER COMFORTABLE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK
DOWN AND GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. ANY
FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT RAIN
CHANCES AT BEST DURING THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
LITTLE VARIATION BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

BENIGN WEATHER REMAIN IN PLACE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST. VERY SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS AT MCB
BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE 18Z TAF. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHTER OFFSHORE WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SAT BUT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN OVERNIGHT SAT WITH MOD ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
BACK OVER THE REGION TO START THE WORKWEEK. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  50  82  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  53  83  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  51  83  56  83 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  59  81  63  83 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  54  81  60  82 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  49  81  56  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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