Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 212047
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
347 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Ongoing convection currently near the Atchafalaya Basin will
gradually dissipate during the evening hours as daytime heating
wanes and overall convective instability decreases. However, with
a continued increase in positive vorticity advection and related
forcing in the mid and upper levels through the night some
isolated shower and thunderstorm activity should continue to
develop. Temperatures will be rather warm as strong onshore flow
of 10 to 15 mph continues to advect a deep pool of moisture into
the region. This is well noted by the surge in precipitable water
values to 1.75 inches or greater tonight. Overnight lows should
only dip into the lower to middle 70s.

Confidence remains high that a band of showers and thunderstorms
will develop in the morning hours over western Louisiana along a
pre-frontal trough axis. This band of convection will begin to
push into the western portions of the forecast area near the
Atchafalaya Basin in the mid morning hours and then push eastward
through the day. Expect to see highest rain chances around late
morning for the Baton Rouge area, early afternoon for the New
Orleans area, and late afternoon or early evening for the
Mississippi coast. Conditions look marginally conducive for a few
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to develop tomorrow.
Models have switched back around to showing a bit more mid-level
cooling which makes sense as the upper level trough axis
approaches from the west. As a result, lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.0
C/km will support increased instability during the afternoon hours
as the convective band moves through. Expect to MLCAPE approach
1000 J/KG indicating a marginal amount of instability.
Additionally, some weak directional shear will persist into the
afternoon. Even though storm relative helicity in the lowest 3km
will generally remain below 100 m2/s2, there should be just enough
rotation in any stronger updrafts to support some hail formation.
A lower wetbulb zero height of around 12000 feet will also tend to
support some elevated hail cores forming in the deepest and
strongest updrafts. DCAPE values are not excessive, but do point
to a small chance that some of the stronger storms could also
produce locally strong wind gusts. Given all of these parameters,
there is a small risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm
developing along the line of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal in the upper 70s and
lower 80s in advance of the line.

The actual cold front and associated neutrally tilted upper level
trough axis will sweep through the forecast Sunday evening. Expect
to see a wind shift and surge of cooler air begin to push into the
western third of the CWA in the evening hours and then spread
eastward through the remainder of the overnight hours. As
increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence develops in
the wake of the passing upper level trough, and strong cold and
dry air advection takes hold behind the frontal passage a quick
clearing out of clouds and showers is expected through the
overnight hours from west to east. By Monday morning, only a few
lingering showers should be found across parts of the Mississippi
coast. Even these showers should clear the area by midday. By
Monday afternoon, expect to see mostly clear skies in place across
much of the region. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with
lows dipping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Highs on Monday
will only rise into the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...

Deep layer northwest flow will dominate the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. A reinforcing upper level trough and cold front will
sweep through the area on Tuesday. In the wake of this system, a
significantly colder airmass will advect into the region. 925mb
temperatures should fall into the middle 40s, which supports
daytime highs only in the middle to upper 60s Wednesday. Overnight
lows Tuesday night should easily fall into the 40s. Some
modification in the airmass is expected by Thursday as the surface
ridge parked over the area begins to push to the east. The heart
of the mid and upper level cold pool will also push to the
northeast of the area. As a result, expect to see temperatures
warm back into the middle 70s by Thursday afternoon after another
cool night of lows in the 40s Wednesday night.

By Friday and Saturday, the pattern should once again change and
become more unsettled for the Gulf South. A broad longwave trough
will begin to strengthen over the Plains states and Friday and
eventually push eastward across the Gulf South. However, there
are significant model differences by Saturday with the GFS being
far more progressive with this trough and the associated frontal
boundary than the ECMWF. At this time, have opted to go with a
blend of the model solutions, and have placed a risk of scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for both Friday night
and Saturday. Temperatures should also continue to modify as
southerly winds bring some higher dewpoints back into the region.
Expect to see overnight lows warm back to more seasonal levels in
the 50s and lower 60s for Thursday and Friday nights, and daytime
highs should climb back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon should dissipate after
sunset, though low clouds will continue to result in MVFR or IFR
conditions overnight. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will
affect the area tomorrow, beginning in the west near sunrise and
progressing eastward throughout the day.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong southeast flow in advance of an approaching low pressure
system will keep Small Craft Advisory flags up for the eastern
Gulf waters tonight. Expect to see a slight drop in the gradient
flow tomorrow as the front approaches, but exercise caution
conditions should still persist. Winds will shift to the northwest
tomorrow night as the low and associated cold front sweep through.
Cold air advection behind the system will push winds to between 15
and 25 knots resulting exercise caution or small craft advisory
flags being reissued. A reinforcing front should sweep through on
Tuesday, and expect to see widespread Small Craft Advisory
conditions develop Tuesday night in the wake of this system. The
strong winds around 25 knots could push seas to 7 to 9 feet in the
open Gulf waters during this period. Wednesday and Thursday should
see the gradient flow slack off considerably as a surface high
pressure system becomes parked directly over the waters. Winds
should also shift from a northerly to a southerly component during
this period. Seas should decrease from 3 to 6 feet Wednesday
afternoon to less than 3 feet on Thursday.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring convection.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
 direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  79  55  73 /  20  80  60  20
BTR  71  80  55  75 /  40  80  50  10
ASD  71  81  58  76 /  20  80  60  20
MSY  73  82  62  76 /  30  80  40  10
GPT  72  80  62  77 /  20  80  80  20
PQL  71  81  62  77 /  20  80  80  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ555-557-575-
     577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ557-575-577.

&&

$$

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