Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 241330
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
830 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
A moist and tropical airmass remains across the area in the wake
of Cindy. PW is high at 2.2 inches, which is near the max for this
time of year. Conditions are saturated at low levels with sfc
dewpoints in the upper 70s across of the area. Plenty of
instability is in place already with 2850 J/KG mixed layer CAPE.
Convective temperature is low at 84F so more storms are expected
to develop by late this morning. Heavy rain with the potential for
localized flash flooding is the concern, especially if deep
convection initiates.

Krautmann

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
There is good news and bad news. The good, is a cold front on the
way with drier air and much lower chances of sh/ts. The bad news
is that we will see more rainfall before getting there.

Three distinctive boundaries will come into play for the area
today through Monday. The first two are currently over the area.
The break down of each one will be discussed here.

1) The first most southerly boundary is an old band left over
from Cindy which has now oriented itself ne-sw stretching from
southern Alabama through southeast Louisiana and into the gulf.
This boundary has basically shifted slightly northwest then
pivoted and move back into the area over the last couple of days
before stalling where it is presently located. This convergence
zone will continue to promote sh/ts development today and tonight.

2) The second is an outflow boundary moving southward through
southern Miss this morning. This boundary was promoted by a sfc
trough axis over northern Alamama, central Miss, through northern
Louisiana. This boundary will begin to slow this morning and
collide with the first where they will become one and stall where
the first is located now. Both of these boundaries will simply
reinforce each other and should be capable of producing quite a
bit of activity This morning through the day and well into the
evening.

3) The third of these boundaries will be the actual cold front. We
will see this front move and put the breaks on just north of the
area by this evening. Lower dp temps will then begin to filter
into the area during the day Sunday with the best push starting
Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. This air will be a
huge improvement and will not only be extremely noticeable but
welcomed compared to the conditions we have been tolerating so
far. By Monday morning, areas north of Lake Pontchartrain should
be observing dp temps in the mid 50s while low to mid 60s dp temps
may filter into the south shore areas. This will all but shut the
spicket off for many areas as well for Monday and Tuesday.

The paragraph identified as #2 will be one of the variables
responsible for the flash flood watch that will be posted for
today through midnight tonight. This may be extended into Sunday
along and south of the interstate 10/12 corridor as the front will
be slow to move through the area.

Showers and thunderstorms that fire along and flanking this #2
boundary axis will be very efficient rain producers today.
Normally, most areas would be able to handle this rainfall if it
had been dry. But grounds remain saturated and any further heavy
rainfall could become a flooding issue. One more complication to
add to the mix will be storm motion opposing backbulding vectors.
These vectors will work together to cause sh/ts to look as if many
of these storms are not moving at all once they develop. With all
these variables considered, a flash flood watch will be issued
for the entire area. Although the area that should see the least
rainfall amounts will be the southern most portion of the
southeast Louisiana coastal parishes. The northern portion of
these parishes will still have just as much opportunity at high
precip accumulations as all other locations. Accumulations are
expected to be 2" to 3" within these relatively stationary cells
through midnight, with some isolated locations possibly seeing
higher amounts with the most vigorous cells.

Coastal flooding is not expected to be an issue with this event.
But tide levels will remain very high with only the lowest
coastal or beach roads having water up to the roadway or slightly
over during high tide times.

LONG TERM...
There are some indications that the front will stall near or at
the coast. This would prevent the dry air from working into the
most southern locations of Louisiana. For this package, we will be
optomistic and filter the dry air into these locations with
reduced but not alleviated rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

The dry air does not last long and will move back to the north
allowing the deep moisture back with a vengence Wednesday. This
will bring the rain chances back to the area as well through the
remainder of the week.

AVIATION...

Conditions variable between MVFR and VFR as clouds in the FL015-025
layer range from scattered to overcast early this morning. One band
of SHRA/TSRA near the GPT and ASD terminal areas at 08Z with a more
extensive band to the northwest of that, affecting BTR, MCB and HDC
terminals. Lightning has diminished quite a bit over the last hour.
These bands of convection are likely to merge as they weaken over
the next couple of hours. This is likely to leave an effective
boundary across the area to serve as a focus for convective
redevelopment this afternoon, and will carry TEMPO TSRA for several
hours at most terminals this afternoon. Likely to be a period of VFR
conditions this evening before MVFR ceilings return after 06Z. 35

MARINE...
Winds are expected to remain light through Sunday before becoming
northeast around 15kt late Sunday night into Monday as a cold
front should edge into the northern gulf coast. These higher wind
speeds should be restricted to areas north of the Miss River
mouth. The front will stall near the coast in a Port Fourchon to
Southwest Pass orientation keeping sh/ts chances for most coastal
waters through the period.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Monitoring Hydro/Convective trends

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
         events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  84  72  83  66 /  80  50  50  20
BTR  86  73  84  69 /  80  50  70  40
ASD  88  74  85  70 /  70  50  60  50
MSY  87  75  84  73 /  70  50  70  50
GPT  85  74  84  71 /  70  50  60  50
PQL  87  73  84  69 /  70  50  60  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&

$$



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