Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 312055
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Not much on the radar scope this afternoon. Only a few very weak
returns over the southwest Mississippi this afternoon. The big
story today is that Tropical Storm Hermine has finally formed in
the Gulf of Mexico. In the immediate forecast not much change in
the forecast. We are still thinking that Hermine curves off the
the northeast...however the latest advisory has shifted a bit
west. with this slight jog west in track we still have an outside
shot of seeing some marine impacts over our area. We already have
had higher tides that have resulted in some water in the streets
in portions of the forecast area. This is why we have the Coastal
Flood Advisory out through Friday morning for tides 1 to 2 feet
above normal. Now given the current track of Hermine this may have
to be revisited especially if the track comes even more west.
Portions of the advised area may need to be upgraded to warnings.
For more details see the Marine Discussion below. Most of the land
areas should remain dry through the short term. I have adjusted
pops some and kept them small as subsidence is expected to
suppressconvection on the west side of Hermine. Guidance still
suggests a front moving southward this weekend but it does not
have much of a punch or moisture to work with. So rain chances are
still in the forecast but they will remain fairly low through the
holiday weekend. Temperatures should climb into the low to mid 90s
through the weekend. Overnight lows in the 70s. Again not much
change in the forecast over the next 7 days. We will be watching
Hermine and its track for any slight adjustments in the forecast
that may be needed. 13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
No convection today and relatively quite conditions
for the tafs. VFR conditions will persist through the fcst. /CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue to increase across a good chunk of the coastal
waters, especially the outer waters eat of the mouth of the MS.
This is due to now classified Tropical Storm Hermine which is
helping to tighten the gradient across the region. Hermine is
still fcst to move north tonight and then northeast tomorrow and
head towards the FL Panhandle near Apalachicola. With this winds
will continue to increase to around 25 kts in the outer waters
tonight and through tomorrow night. Seas will continue to increase
becoming hazardous as well. seas of 4-8 ft are likely on top of an
8-10 ft swell that will come out of the southeast. Tides are
already running high and even though the cycle will become lower
the tides and onshore flow will keep tides running around 1-2 ft
abv normal. With this the coastal flood adv has been extended and
the small craft adv has been extended in time and includes the
inner waters east of the river. Winds should drop off considerably
to the west so will keep most of the waters west of the river in
exercise caution status.

If Hermine takes any more jogs west or is slower in its turn to the
northeast then impacts will increase over our marine zones. if
that occurs  we may need to look at tropical storm warnings for our
outer waters and likely need to upgrade some locations to a coastal
flood warning. /CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flood recovery support
            Coastal Flood Advisory
            Small Craft Advisory
            TS Hermine

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  95  74  92 /  10  20  10   0
BTR  75  94  75  92 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  75  95  76  94 /  10  20  10  20
MSY  78  94  79  93 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  76  94  77  93 /  10  30  20  20
PQL  76  94  76  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ040-050-058-
     060>062-064-067>070-072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ552-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Friday
     for GMZ557.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ555-572-575-
     577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MSZ080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ572-575-577.

&&

$$



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