Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 280201 AAA
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
701 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK. MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY...BRINGING
AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS EPISODE
OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH SOME FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED TO INCLUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH INFORMATION AND
INCLUDE HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN THE WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. PERHAPS THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS AREA A
LITTLE OVER-AGGRESSIVE IN CALCULATING THE INITIAL MONSOON
MOISTURE PUSH. HOWEVER EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
PUSH OF MOISTURE THIS WEEK AND IT WILL ARRIVE IN WAVES.
CONVECTION REACHED WHITE PINE COUNTY AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY ON
SATURDAY AS PROPOSED AND THE MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NV AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION BEGAN AT 18Z OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NYE COUNTY EAST OF ROUND MOUNTAIN AND MANHATTAN AND
THE FIRST CELLS MOVED DUE NORTH UP MONITOR VALLEY. A MORE ROBUST
SURGE OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AFFECTING
ALL AREAS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. AT THIS TIME
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROPOSED TO BE BELOW ONE INCH
THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLY BREACHING THE ONE INCH MARK ON TUESDAY
IN WHITE PINE COUNTY. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN WHITE PINE COUNTY
AND NORTHEAST NYE COUNTY STARTED OUT IN THE 40S WITH SITES 30
MILES TO THE NORTH AND WEST REPORTING DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S.

THIS EVENING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND
WEST STILL PRIMARILY COVERING EASTERN NEVADA...GENERALLY
ENCOMPASSING ALL AREAS EAST OF A N/S LINE EXTENDING FROM TONOPAH
THROUGH AUSTIN TO CARLIN. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED OVER CENTRAL
NV AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MAINLY OVER EASTERN NEVADA AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AS THE FIRST NOTABLE WAVE OF
MOISTURE TRAILS EAST INTO UTAH...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO INCITE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL AREAS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...A DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME WILL CREEP ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER WITH UTAH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER EASTERN NEVADA ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED ONE INCH. SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM
SOME OF THESE STORMS.

OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLY
CONTINUE AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SECOND AND MORE PROLIFIC
SURGE OF MOISTURE HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOODING. ENHANCED BY ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM MONDAY
STORMS AND POSSIBLY SOME OVERNIGHT LOCALIZE MODERATE RAINFALL...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE RIPENED AND THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A PROPOSED EASTWARD SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE AXIS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM MOTION. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RISING INTO THE 50S AND CAPE VALUES WILL APPROACH 500 J/KG. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL ZONES. DUE TO A RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION...THE INITIAL 12Z TIMING OF THE WATCH TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT A MODELED WEST TO EAST BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
MODERATE RAINFALL.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV...WITH THE GFS HAVING
OVER 1 INCH PW OVER HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE DOMAIN STAGE RIGHT...WHICH WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION. AT THIS
TIME...THE CORFIDI VECTORS LOOK PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LKN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE
GFS IS A LITTLE QUICKER FORCING THAT ENERGY INTO IDAHO...BUT BOTH
MODELS DEPICT THE DISTURBANCE...AND BOTH MODELS DEEP  RIDGING OVER
THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL SUSTAIN MONSOONAL FLOW. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS AND WILL BE MONITORED
DAILY.


&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND VIS AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. MAIN CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY KTPH AND KWMC POSSIBLY UP TO KEKO. THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT RE-FIRE DURING THE MIDDAY ON MONDAY.
ANY STORM MAY BRIEFLY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AND VIS DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO 45
KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE
NORTHWARD...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES BY
MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NEVADA ALL WEEK.



&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

92/97/97/92





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