Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 281000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
300 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather returns today along with a warming trend
through Wednesday. The next storm system will bring a variety of
weather Thursday through late week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Main concern will be a
significant storm system impacting the area with heavy rain/snow,
thunderstorms, and strong winds. Confidence continues to remain
quite high for this system. If traveling, recreating, or if
weather makes your life difficult, you will want to pay close
attention to the forecast.

Today - Generally a nice day expected overall. Temps warm back to
near average and sunshine should prevail. There will still be
breezy to gusty winds across SE Elko, southern White Pine, and
northern Nye Counties. Northerly winds of 10-20 MPH, gusting to
25-30 MPH will be possible.

Wednesday - Very similar to Tuesday, but a couple degrees warmer
over the forecast area. Highs will generally be in the 60s. Clouds
will be increasing and a few late aftn/eve showers will be
possible over far northwestern Humboldt County.

Thursday - Humboldt and northern Elko Counties will already be
seeing valley rain and mtn snow as the significant storm system
approaches the reigon. By mid morning and early afternoon, precip
spreads to the rest of the CWA. Forecast models remain in very
good agreement on general specifics. The closed low will just be
entering NW NV by 00Z Friday. Out ahead of the closed low will be
a very strong cold front. This front will pack a punch to
northern Nevada with heavy valley rain changing to snow, heavy
mountain snow, strong winds, and the threat for thunderstorms.
Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to even severe.
Very impressive dynamics along with modest CAPE/instability in
the 300-600 j/kg range will be present. Also as the front passes
through the region during peak heating, a pocket of 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-60 kts will be moving into the region. Given the the
above ingredients and strong large scale forcing and jet dynamics,
the threat for quick moving cells with hail and strong winds will
be possible. This will need to be watched closely if these
ingredients continue to be forecast for Thursday.

In addition to the thunderstorms, rain will quickly change to
snow across northern NV. Significant mtn snow is expected with
the potential for modest valley accumulations. Timing of the
changeover and the exact placements of heavier bands of snow will
be difficult to pinpoint, but there should be a better idea over
the next day or so.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday. High confidence
continues in a potent low pressure system moving through Nevada
Thursday night into Friday. A closed low is expected to develop in
south central Nevada and deepen Thursday night into Friday around
540 dm being centered over southern Utah Friday morning. Deeper
convection and thunderstorms expected on Thursday should wane
Thursday night as strongest dynamics shift eastward into Utah.
However, deformation zone and banding precip still looks like a
possibility across northeastern NV and White Pine County. Upslope
enhancement is possible at least for a brief period Thursday
evening as a cold front pushes through the state. However, strong
to supercritical NNW flow could preclude upslope enhancement.
Snow levels will drop considerably to around 4500 ft by Thursday
night. Critical forecast component will be where enhanced
precip/forcing sets up resulting in the heaviest snow amounts.
Latest model runs have shifted bulk of precip a bit farther south
into southern Elko and especially White Pine County. Nonetheless,
snow totals in the range of 5 to 8 inches in some valleys are
possible. Mountains southeastward from the Rubies to Great Basin
National Park could see up to 2 feet. Winter WX watch should be
considered today.

Winds. Winds will accelerate behind the cold front Thursday and
will remain elevated through Thursday evening at least,
particularly across northern Nye county. Guidance is still
leaning toward advisory level winds and potentially nearing
warning criteria. Northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to
50 mph are still expected around the Tonopah area.

Friday through Monday. Conditions improve markedly for the
weekend as ridging builds across the Great Basin region.
Temperatures will rebound from the 30s and 40s Friday to 50s and
60s once again by Sunday where snow cover is minimal. Another weak
trough and cold front could move through the state Monday but at
this point the system looks pretty weak.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. KELY AMD
NOT SKED ufn due to missing visibility. Gusty northwest winds
will persist at KTPH up to 30 kt and at KELY with gusts during the
day to 25 kt.


.HYDROLOGY...Flooding remains a concern across the reigon this
morning. Many streams/rivers remain high with swift flows.
Multiple rivers/creeks also remain above flood stage.

The next storm system for Thursday through Friday night will bring
widespread significant valley and mtn precipitation. Many valley
locations will see 0.3" to 0.6" of liquid, some in the form of
snow. Places in Elko and White Pine Counties could see locally
more. The mountains will also see significant precipitaton,
mainly in the form of snow. The mountains will easily see 1-2`
feet of snow, with locally more on the higher peaks. This will
also add an additional 1-2" of SWE to the mtns.

Due to the significant forecast precipitation, water levels will
likely fluctuate and some locations could see additional rises.
Please pay close attention to upcoming forecasts.





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