Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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000
FXUS65 KLKN 302249
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
249 PM PST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP HAS A BATCH OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOME PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEVADA. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER ANOTHER
DAY...AND THEN THE RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE SILVER STATE. EXPECT
MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF JANUARY AND
THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST PERIOD COMMENCES WITH THE LONGWAVE
RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA AND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.THE PW FROM THE LATEST SOUNDING AT ELKO WAS .44
OF AN INCH WHICH IS 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND LAS VEGAS HAD .77 OF
AN INCH WHICH IS 230 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE LKN CWA AND IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH OVER
AZ...WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION...BRINGING QPF TO WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN NYE
COUNTIES. THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE THE
SCHELL CREEK AND SNAKE RANGES... AND GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A VENGEANCE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE 568 DAM OVER ELKO BY 00Z
SUNDAY. SUFFICE TO SAY...ANTICIPATE MORE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE MEAN MAX TEMP FOR ELKO ON JAN 31ST
IS 37F AND 38F ON FEB 1ST AND 2ND. FOR WMC...THE MEAN MAX TEMP ON
JAN 31ST...FEB 1ST AND FEB 2ND IS 44F...WHICH WILL BE EXCEEDED
HANDILY IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING. MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO NORTHERN NEVADA FROM ABOUT INTERSTATE 80 NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF
NEVADA FOR DRY WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING OCNL MVFR
CIGS TO KELY THROUGH 15Z SATURDAY. CIGS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR AT
KWMC AFT 00Z.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/91/91



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