Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 191049
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
345 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEVADA
AND PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE THIS WAY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WILL FIRE UP AGAIN OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. SMOKE FROM LARGE CALIFORNIA FIRES AND
ONE NEVADA FIRE WILL CAUSE SOME SMOKY SKIES OVER THE STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTER THAN USUAL
PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE AND SOME MODEL DIFFS STILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY CHALLENGING FORECAST. WHAT WAS ONCE A WET FRIDAY
TURNS INTO A HYBRID SITUATION WITH STORMS THAT WOULD BE VERY WET
AND POSSIBLY CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING...BUT ARE MOVING TO FAST TO DO
SO NOW. STILL DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH CONCENTRATIONS OF >0.6"
PW`S OVER MUCH OF NEVADA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEVADA. CAPE IN THE
HIGH TRIPLE DIGITS AS WELL WITH ENOUGH HEAT TO REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. SOME STORMS WILL BE ORGANIZED AND
CONTINUE TO HAVE LONG DURATION UPDRAFTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORIES TODAY. A LULL IN THE ACTION WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. SATURDAY`S CONVECTION WILL BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. TEMPS CONTINUE
TO BE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PROGGED TO SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW WILL DRAW PLENTY
OF MOIST AIR NORTH WITH PW`S APPROACHING AND IN SOME AREAS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH. STORM MOTIONS DON`T LOOK ALL THAT SLOW BUT STILL
NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WITH STORMS AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER DEPENDING ON IF WE CAN GET
SOME SUN TO INCREASE SURFACE CAPE. GENERALLY NUDGED POPS UP A BIT
MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS IT LOOKS LIKE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AT
LEAST WILL END UP NUMEROUS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH HEATING. HIGHS WILL
CERTAINLY BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH MOST PLACES STUCK IN THE
70S EVEN IF WE HAVE ENOUGH HEATING TO GET SOME GOOD THUNDERSTORMS
GOING.

LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND FORCING RAPIDLY DECREASING. WAS TEMPTED TO
COMPLETELY REMOVE ALL POPS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT LEFT SOME IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST GIVEN LINGERING CYCLONIC CURVATURE. TEMPS WILL
START TO WARM A BIT WITH MORE SUN BUT STILL EXPECT SOME INFLUENCE
FROM THE LOW TO KEEP THEM DOWN A BIT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE POKES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AND THERE IS NO THREAT OF PRECIPITATION OR THUNDER. ALL
IN ALL PROBABLY THE NICEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF A STRONG PACIFIC
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY. DO
NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH IT YET BUT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM ON THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

GFS AND ECMWF WILL FINALLY DIFFER A BIT BY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS
SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS
IT BACK A BIT. GIVEN GFS SOLUTION...ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA
THURSDAY BUT NO MORE FOR NOW. MODELS GENERALLY SEEM TO BE SLOWING
THIS SYSTEM DOWN AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES THURSDAY MAY TURN OUT
DRY. RCM

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24
HOURS. SMOKE HAS THINNED THOUGH IT MAY BRIEFLY GO MVFR AT KTPH
THANKS TO THE WIND SHIFT OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH LESS TODAY SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS. WINDS SHOULD
ALSO BE LIGHTER WITH GUSTS MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS. RCM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL ZONES POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK. IF THEY MOVED MORE
SLOWLY THEY`D BE WET STORMS...IF THEY MOVED FASTER THEY`D BE DRY.
AS THEY ARE...THEY WILL TEND TO HAVE HEAVY RAIN IN THE NARROW
CORES WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE THE CORES ON THE DRY SIDE.
NEW FIRES POSSIBLE...BUT EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR IS NOT LIKELY. GOOD
RH RECOVERY IN THE MORNINGS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

98/93/93/98





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