Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 281547
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
847 AM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across central Nevada will expand into northeast Nevada on
Sunday. Dry Memorial Day through the end of the week with a
warming trend.


&&

.UPDATE...Fine-tuned pops for this afternoon based on the recent
HRRR and RAP runs (as well as the NAM12), which pulls the
activity northward to the Ruby Mtns by early evening. Adjusted
other elements to account this this change.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT /

SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across central Nevada will expand into northeast Nevada on
Sunday. Dry Memorial Day through the end of the week with a
warming trend.

SHORT TERM...Today through Memorial Day. Weak upper low will form
along the central CA coast today. This will create a convergent
zone across central NV. This combined with moisture and
instability will produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms will reach as far north as far southern Elko county.
On Sunday short wave moving across the Pacific Northwest will draw
this moisture up into northeast NV for isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms across all of eastern and
central NV. On Memorial Day upper ridge will be building in from
the west bringing a drier and warmer airmass into the area. Could
still be some isolated mountain thunderstorms across far southern
White Pine county and the eastern section of northern Nye county.
A slow warming trend will begin on Sunday.

LONG TERM...Monday night through next Friday. Warmer and drier
conditions next week.

High pressure building in over Northern and Central California
Monday night into Tuesday leads to mostly clear skies and slightly
above normal temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada. Models
are coming into better agreement with respect to the ridge
progression from Northern California Tuesday...drifting east over CA
and NV Wednesday...then centering over the inter-mountain west or
Great Basin region on Thursday. Warm and dry across the cwa through
at least Thursday with high temperatures expected to rise higher and
a little quicker than previous guidance had suggested.

Since the ECMWF seems to have been playing catch-up to the GFS with
respect to ridge placement in the Wednesday to Thursday time-
frame...leaned Fridays forecast toward the GFS with isolated
thunderstorms across the CWA...under the slowly weakening ridge as
PW values climb toward a half inch. Similar precipitable water
values across the CWA next Saturday and Sunday. However with weaker
instability per the GFS model...at this time would hold off on
shower and thunderstorms for next weekend although afternoon cumulus
cloud build-ups look favorable. Very warm late next week with upper
80s and a few 90s possible.

AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals today. Dry
across Northern Nevada today including KWMC and KEKO terminals.
Should see some afternoon cumulus cloud build ups across most of
Central Nevada this afternoon. Still expecting dry conditions at
KTPH today...however increased instability over East-central Nevada
may be enough for some isolated showers and thunderstorms over or
near KELY into the early evening hours. Light to moderate rain is
possible in any thunderstorms near KELY today...along with the
potential for pea-sized hail.

LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

$$


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

85/86



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