Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 290950
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
250 AM PDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING, THEN BY
AFTERNOON WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL NV AS UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. SNOW WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOUNTAINS AS SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE 6500
FEET. ON SUNDAY BROAD UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
AGREEING VERY WELL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. GENERALLY...THE
BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AFTER A BRIEF BREAK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A REX PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WEST BUT WILL NOT BE VERY PROFICIENT AND WILL TEMPORARILY BLOCK
INCOMING SYSTEMS. HOWEVER WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR TO THE
NORTH OVER CANADA...A LARGE TROUGH WILL ENVELOP THE GREAT BASIN.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN EMPHASIS ON EASTERN NEVADA AND THERE
IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOST EVERYWHERE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET
THE ENTIRE TIME SO NO ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 30S.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT AN EXTENDED
DRY PERIOD. THE COMPLEX RIDGE PATTERN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST. THERE
IS STILL SOME QPF MODELED TO INFUSE INTO THE RIDGE PATTERN AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEN AS THE RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EAST PAST THE 4-CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY...THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NEVADA...AT LEAST AS FAR
AS HUMBOLDT COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME MODEL
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRUCTURE OF THIS NEXT TROUGH WITH THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE ECMWF MODEL PROPOSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
ELKO COUNTY BY LATE THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 8000 FEET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND 40S.
&&

.AVIATION...AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THERE WILL BE
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
AREA DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD AT ALL
SITES UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. AFTER THAT TIME...SHOWERS MAY CAUSE
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT KWMC KEKO AND KELY.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH STREAM FLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL
AND VALLEY RAIN TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY AND SATURDAY.
RIVERS CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING STRONG AND AS TEMPERATURES
WARM NEXT WEEK...SOME CREEKS RUNNING OFF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXCEED
BANKFULL. LAMOILLE CREEK...MARTIN CREEK...SALMON FALLS CREEK...AND
THE BRUNEAU RIVER ARE FOUR SITES THAT BEAR WATCHING AS THEY RESPOND
MORE RAPIDLY TO EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAINFALL AND HIGH FLOWS IN SMALL
STREAMS MAY LEAD TO SOGGY OR ERODED ROADWAYS. IF THE RAIN AND SNOW
DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED OVER THE SNAKE AND SCHELL RANGE...SNAKE CREEK
COULD EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FLOWS AS WELL. THE HUMBOLDT RIVER FROM
BATTLE MOUNTAIN TO WINNEMUCCA WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT
RISE DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM STREAMS. HOWEVER NO FLOODING
IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

91/92/92


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