Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 241037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
337 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Active weather expected over the next few days as
monsoonal moisture will combine with a stalled trough along the
California coast. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
with the potential for flash flooding as some of these storms
could produce heavy rainfall. Drier air returns towards the end of
the week and will diminish chances for precipitation.


.SHORT TERM...Today and Tuesday. Showers and storms will re-
develop this afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong with
gusty winds and even the potential for small hail. PW values will
be higher today and there is an increased threat for flash
flooding conditions. As such a flash flood watch has been issued.
Burn scars from recent fires will be especially susceptible to
flash flooding due to runoff. Given the forcing and instability,
storms could likely continue into the overnight and early Tuesday

On Tuesday, convection will expand and intensify across the
region. This is when the best dynamics move across the region. A
strong jet for this time of the year will traverse the Great Basin
co-located with 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE. For Great Basin
standards, this could be a significant outbreak of convection with
isolated severe storms. Given the projected CAPE in the hail
growth zone, modest shear, and favorable upper level dynamics,
isolated large hail may also be possible. This will be watched
closely and persons outdoors will want to keep a close eye to the
sky and take action if a warning or threatening weather

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday. Active thunderstorm day
on Wednesday as monsoon moisture remains across the region. With
precipitable water values close to 1 inch across most areas
localized flash flooding will remain a concern. The latter half of
the week will see drier and more stable air moving into western
NV which will limit thunderstorm activity to eastern NV.
Precipitable water values will remain in the 3/4 to 1 inch range
so heavy rain from the stronger storm cells will continue to be a


.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours, for the next 24 hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected once
again today and tomorrow. Expecting scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms through early week. Today and tomorrow, flash
flooding and strong to severe storms will be possible.
Additionally, we will have to closely monitor recent burn scars
for the potential of flash flooding and/or debris flows. This
active pattern will continue through the week.


Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through Tuesday
evening for Humboldt County-Northeastern Nye County-Northern
Elko County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County-
Northwestern Nye County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-South
Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-Southern Lander
County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko County-White
Pine County.



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