Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 262204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
204 PM PST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The first part of the week will be unsettled as a low
pressure area moves through the state. Dry conditions are expected
for the latter part of the work week, with a possibility of some
showers returning by next weekend.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Satellite imagery
confirms the increasing cloudiness across northern Nevada this
afternoon. The KLRX radar indicates no shower activity at the
present time and the LKN CWFA is being subjected to a southwest
flow ahead of an approaching trough which is boosting temperatures
well into the 30s and some spots have exceeded 40 degrees. Tonopah
reached 43 degrees just after noon. Showers can be seen coming
into view over northern California. It seems the models are
advancing the precipitation a little too fast but snow should
start spreading east across northern Nevada tonight. The early
part of the week will be cold and snowy with improving conditions
by Wednesday.

Tonight through Tuesday night. A low pressure trough will slowly
move through the state. Temperatures and snow levels will be cold
enough for snow even before a cold front moves through on Monday
with the passage of the trough axis. Most areas will see a couple
inches of total snow accumulation during this time-frame and
Monday will be the target day for most of the snowfall. However
impacts are expected to be minimal. High temperatures will range
from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. Low temperatures will be in the
teens and 20s tonight, and range from the single digits to the
teens Monday night and Tuesday night.

Wednesday. A cool northwest flow will ensue as the low pressure
trough moves east of the state. Dry conditions are expected. High
temperatures will be in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Sunday. Model agreement
okay in the beginning then deteriorates later. Starting with a
very flat anti-cyclonic flow over the region with slightly warming
temps and drying airmass. Low pops remain in place through the
period without a strong ridge. Later the flow buckles, depending
on which model you look at, but general idea of southwest flow in
advance of another upper trough looks okay. Not many changes to
previous forecast.


.AVIATION...Winter weather system moving into the region Sunday
evening will produce periods of snow at all fields beginning at
KWMC first, then spreading to KEKO...KELY/KTPH overnight and
continue through 00Z Tuesday. Intensity will decrease later
Monday. Winds generally gust from south and southwest to near 25
knots at times Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. Ceilings and
visibility will drop to MVFR overnight and possibly briefly to IFR
at KWMC...KEKO...and KELY. KTPH should remain VFR. Mountain
obscuration all sites.


.HYDROLOGY...Flooding will continue along the lower Humboldt River
until further notice. Fluctuations in the river levels at Battle
Mountain...Comus...and Winnemucca all indicate that multiple flood
waves are moving slowly downstream. This is likely a result of the
various precip events and snowmelt periods further upstream last
week. One stops...and another starts. Next round of precip tonight
into Monday should be mostly snow. Several inches of it will
likely accumulate in the mountains of the Humboldt River basin,
with a trace to a few inches in the valleys. This may have to be
dealt with later this week when the temperatures warm again into
the 40s over large areas. Even a slow trickle of snowmelt will
keep the river from falling as quickly as we`d all like.




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