Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 201104
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
504 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today and tonight.
West winds will veer to the northwest and increase to near 20kt
sustained and gusts as high as 30kt. Winds will decrease around
21/00Z, or shortly thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

The axis of the upper trough is directly overhead this morning and
will continue shifting east today. Clouds have all but cleared the
CWA and subsidence along with dry air on the back side of the
system will make for a beautiful day. Winds may be a little breezy
out of the northwest which could cause some elevated fire weather
conditions especially across SE NM. Weak ridging builds in
through midweek and will combine with a mid level thermal ridge to
boost temperatures well above normal. Highs in the 80`s and yes,
even 90`s, are looking more likely Wednesday and Thursday. While
winds will be fairly light through midweek, conditions change
drastically Thursday. An upper trough will move across the Rockies
while inducing a surface low in the Plains. Strong mixing, dry
air, and hot temperatures will create critical fire weather
conditions across much of the area. We will also see high winds
and advisory conditions over parts of the region. A cold front
will allow temperatures to get back close to normal Friday through
the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

A surface trough will move into the area today and shift winds to
the northwest and north behind it.  Southeast New Mexico and the
northwest Permian Basin will see stronger northerly winds, and
minimum afternoon RH/s of 10-15 percent in some of areas.  Since the
stronger 20 foot winds will occur prior to the lower RH/s in these
areas, will issue a Fire Danger Statement.  the rest of the forecast
area will have minimum afternoon RH/s above 15 percent, and 20 foot
northwest winds of 10-20 mph.

Recovery tonight will be poor over most of the forecast area as
northwest low level winds funnel dry air into the region.  An upper
ridge will build over the region Tuesday and promote high
temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.  There will be widespread
minimum RH/s of 10-15 percent Tuesday afternoon, but 20 foot wind
speeds will mainly be less than 20 mph sustained, so critical
conditions are not expected.  Recovery will be poor again Tuesday
night, and as the upper ridge begins to break down, 20 foot wind
speeds of 15-20 mph will affect some locations along and west of the
Pecos River.  Near critical conditions may prompt issuance of a Fire
Danger Statement for Wednesday afternoon.

Persistent, and increasing, westerly flow aloft will occur Wednesday
night and Thursday which will keep recovery poor again Wednesday
night.  An upper level storm system will pass by to the north of the
region on Thursday, and likely result in widespread critical fire
weather conditions from Thursday morning into thursday evening.  If
model trends continue to support this pattern, a Fire Weather Watch
will likely be issued on Tuesday or Tuesday night.  Unfortunately,
poor recovery, and near critical to critical, fire weather
conditions could occur over much of the area Friday through
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  41  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  38  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         76  47  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  44  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 61  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          70  39  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          64  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  41  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         73  42  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           74  38  81  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29



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