Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170912
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
412 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow. No
clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Tuesday...skies are clear as far
as the eye can see (or satellite). Both WV and IR imagery shows
a deep dry airmass over the Southern Plains with no clouds over TX
and NM. The 00Z MAF RAOB showed only 0.16 inches of PW. With clear
skies and light winds temps this early morning are in the 40s to
lower 50s.

Models show a ridge centered over Southern CA/AZ/Sonora Mexico.
This will continue the weak NW flow aloft. Temps will be warmer
today as the flow aloft transition to zonal and lee sfc troffing
develops. Dry and above normal temps are in store for Wednesday.

A weak southern stream shortwave will draw moisture north out of
Mexico into the western portions of the CWA. This will lead to
chc/slight chc of thunderstorms Thursday. As the shortwave moves
east slight chances spread across the CWA on Friday. However...the
best chances will be to the north and east of the CWA with the
better instability and jet dynamics.

A deeper trof will move from the Pacific NW into the Plains over
the weekend. The best instability and dynamics will remain north
and east of the CWA...however there could be a few thunderstorms
Sat/Sat night across the eastern PB in association with a cold
front moving into the area. Saturday looks to be warm for mid
October with temps in the 80s with lower 90s along the Rio Grande.
The CWA will only be clipped with the cooler airmass on Sunday.

Ridging will build strongly in the Western US late in the weekend
in response to a deep trough in the Eastern US. This will leave
the CWA in NW flow aloft. Expect dry weather Sunday thru at least
the middle part of next week with slowly warming temps.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     80  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  52  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  53  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  57  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          79  49  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           81  53  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         80  53  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  52  83  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/33/44



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