Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 242338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
538 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

Following a mild day Wednesday, seasonal late January weather
will prevail over the Midsouth through the next seven days. A few
prefrontal showers will occur Wednesday, ahead of midlevel trof
and associated surface cold frontal passage. Locations east the MS
River and south of I-40 will have best chances of receiving
measurable rainfall.

The Thursday through Sunday period will see a series of upper
level waves dropping south from Canada, through the upper Midwest
and into the Ohio River valley. In such an pattern, low level
return flow never really becomes established over the Midsouth,
limiting low level moisture. Glancing shortwaves may provide some
sprinkles over northwest TN Thursday and Friday afternoons.

A stronger medium wavelength upper level trof will drop into the
Midsouth Sunday afternoon, bringing 1000-500 mb thickness to below
520 dm. 12Z GFS model continued to show light precipitation
Sunday afternoon mainly north and east of Memphis, while the ECMWF
and Canadian models remained dry. Given the strong forcing, steep
low level lapse rates and marginally adequate low level moisture,
will continue a mention of light rain / light snow showers.
Afternoon surface temps should prevail above freezing, but the
melting layer would likely be only a few thousand feet AGL. In
such a scenario, some wet non-accumulating snow flakes would be

Model agreement begins to decrease beyond the weekend. The ECMWF
lifts out the eastern CONUS upper trof, while the GFS and Canadian
keep the southern Canada trajectories aimed at the Midsouth. In
any case, the chances for significant precip appears limited early
next week.



00z TAFs

VFR expected through most of the first half of the period...with
approaching front bringing MVFR/IFR cigs depending on site...along
and scattered rainshowers. Believe TUP will see the worst weather.
Winds will start of southeast through south with occasional gusts
and wind shear...along with compression issues at MEM. Winds will
shift southwest through west late as the front pushes through.




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