Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 282057
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SUNNY SKIES REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS
WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

AS MILDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL
MUCH MILDER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MUCH COLDER IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN. WITH THE MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHERE
THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE REACHING THE GULF COAST SO ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY SEE ANY LIGHT RAIN
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH WHICH
WILL START A WARMING TREND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL HEAD TOWARD
THE REGION THURSDAY AND NEXT FRIDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SLIGHT CHANCE THAT STRATUS AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
INTO KMEM AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT BEFORE 29/12Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING GUSTY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. WINDS DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH STILL
CONTINUING AROUND 11 KTS AT KMEM. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT. KEPT IN MENTION OF WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AS WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST STRENGTHEN AT 1500 FT.

STRATUS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 29/12Z
LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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