Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
FXUS64 KMEG 290415
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1115 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1038 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
Skies are mostly clear across the forecast area this evening with
temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Some isolated
thunderstorms moved across portions of Chickasaw and Monroe
counties in north Mississippi but have finally dissipated. Have
adjusted low temperatures up a couple of degrees as readings are
not cooling as much as expected.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016/
Truly the dog days of summer this afternoon over the region.
Currently temperatures ranged from the 88F degrees at Paris
Tennessee...to a hot 97 degrees at the Memphis International
Airport. Dewpoints ranged from the upper 60s to the mid 70s...with
heat indices ranging from 95F to 102F. On radar a few showers and
one lone thunderstorm were marching westward across the area.
For tonight through Thursday...models are in good agreement that
the upper level ridge over the Atlantic Seaboard will flatten as
a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes and New England. At
the same time a stronger upper trough will move into the Pacific
Northwest. This will in turn allow for the downstream ridge to
build over the center of the country...placing the mid and upper
level flow from the northwest across the Midsouth. On the surface
high pressure will slowly build south out of the Midwest keeping a
light northerly component to the winds each day. But don`t let
that direction fool you...for temperatures will remain above
normal. Late morning/afternoon pop-up showers and storms will dot
the landscape each day...but most Midsoutherners will remain dry.
The best day and threat for rain appears to be late Tuesday
across northeast Arkansas...where convection from the Missouri
Ozarks may bleed over. Have bumped up high temperatures a degree
or two as drier air/subsidence near 700mb has been able to mix
to the surface. Fortunately heat indices are still anticipated to
top out in the low 100s. Lows will generally be in the low 70s.
Upcoming Holiday Weekend...extended model solutions continue to
struggle with tropical system development in the Gulf and along
the Atlantic Coast...but they do agree that the upper ridge in the
central U.S. will begin leaning more into the Midsouth and Ohio
Valley. The aforementioned surface high will shift into the
Appalachians so winds will start off northerly Friday...veering
southerly by Sunday. Precipitation seems nonexistent...in fact the
ECMWF has afternoon dewpoints dropping into the 50s along the
Tennessee River. That may be a bit overdone unless stronger
subsidence is observed. Temperatures will remain above normal.
.AVIATION...06z TAF Set
VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through much of the
forecast period. Chances and coverage remain too low to include in
the TAF forecast. East to Southeast winds light tonight...around
5kt tomorrow. Patchy fog late tonight into early tomorrow may
briefly reduce vis to MVFR or even IFR levels.