Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221136
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY SEE A
DEGREE INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MORE
CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN...GIVEN THE DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING LAYER.
NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TODAY...WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING AT 100 TO 104 OVER MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WITH THIS IN
MIND... AND THE THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS WERE COOLER THAN 75 THIS
MORNING...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY BE A DIFFERENT STORY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM UNDER THE HEIGHT RIDGE. SOME WEAKER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY EDGE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY...
AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES TO THE WEST A BIT.

FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIODS...STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
BEST CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE MS RIVER DELTA BY TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL ERODE
FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE.

MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL END THROUGH THE DAY...
AS DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR SETTLES IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

PWB

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SW BETWEEN 7-10 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






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