Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 240425
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THESE COMPLEXES
MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE. NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAS NOW REACHED SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND REACH
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AROUND 70
DEGREES.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE IT YET
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SO
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY WILL SEE WEATHER MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET
UP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM
AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THOSE WILL LIFT NORTH BY
24/14Z WITH VFR AND BREEZY CONDS DURING THE DAY. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY EVENING
RESULTING IN SHRAS AND TSRAS AT KJBR AND KMEM BY 25/03Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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