Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 211816

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1216 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018


Updated for aviation discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/


Another warm day is expected across the Mid-South. Temperatures
are already in the lower 60s across portions of Southwest
Tennessee and Northwest Mississippi. Clouds should continue to
scatter out across areas along and east of the Mississippi River.
As a result, will adjust sky conditions accordingly and raise high
temperatures to the upper 60s to near 70 degrees across North
Mississippi and areas south of I-40 in West Tennessee. Chances for
isolated showers will continue across Northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel this afternoon, but will remove thunder from the
forecast. Do not expect any thunderstorms until tonight with the
line of convection associated with the cold front.


DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/

Early morning temperatures are above the normal high temperatures
for this time of year...a stark change from where we were just a
few days ago. Temperatures are mainly in the low to middle 50s.
Low clouds and strengthening southerly winds will likely prevent
temperatures from falling much lower prior to sunrise. Short term
high resolution guidance continues to bring scattered light rain
showers across the Midsouth this morning...but so far satellite
and radar does not show any indication of that happening. Will
advertise low pops during the day, but feel like most of the area
will remain dry until tonight.

A deep trough continues to deepen over the Desert Southwest with
zonal flow across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. Over the
next 24 hours the trough will shift into the Southern Plains
resulting in strong cyclogenesis over western portions of Texas
and Oklahoma. This will strengthen the southerly flow/warm
advection across the Midsouth increasing our chance of rain
showers and ushering in higher dewpoints ahead of the approaching
trough. Winds may gust to 25 mph tonight. Guidance is showing
slightly higher precipitable water than previous runs...but still
not to the level that it is concerning. Dew points may briefly
surge into the upper 50s between sunset and midnight tonight...but
should fall back into the low to middle 50s by morning. As a
result...from a thermodynamic standpoint, the window for the
greatest threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
would be from around sunset to Midnight. However, the better
dynamic support for strong to severe thunderstorms will not arrive
until after midnight. As a result...we will see a low end chance
of strong storms for much of the night...mainly along and West of
the Mississippi River. Expect a weakening line of storms to move
into East Arkansas after Midnight moving rapidly across the
Midsouth...into North Alabama and middle TN by midday Monday. The
main threat from these storms will be the transfer of strong
wind aloft to the surface...but that potential remains low. Will
maintain low confidence of strong storms in the Hazardous weather
outlook. One quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain is
expected...highest in East Arkansas.

The remainder of the work week looks uneventful. Temperatures are
expected to be above normal with no rain until Friday afternoon at
the earliest. Guidance suggests higher rain chances will return
next weekend.




Expect occasionally gusty south winds this afternoon as conditions
improve to VFR at KMKL and KMEM. KJBR should remain MVFR. Winds
will increase later tonight as the cold front approaches. A
weakening line of SHRAs/TSRAs with MVFR cigs/vsbys will move into
KJBR around 09z and KMEM around 10z. East of KMEM there probably
will not be much thunder. Line of SHRAs will reach KMKL at 12z and
KTUP at 14z. Quick clearing and gusty SW winds expected behind
the front on Monday.




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