Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 041713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1019 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

Skies remain cloudy across the forecast area this morning with
temperatures in the 40s. Light rain was only falling across
portions of north Mississippi at this time. Additional periods of
light rain are possible this afternoon. WIll update forecast to
remove morning wording.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/


Moisture continues to overspread a stalled surface front stretched
across the southern states. Light rain continues over much of the
region early this morning with light northeast winds and
temperatures from the middle 30s to middle 40s. Isentropic ascent
over the front will continue through much of today with light
rain or drizzle forecast to continue along with patchy
fog...mainly this morning. Cool afternoon temperatures mainly in
the 40s to around 50 degrees can be expected.

A northern stream shortwave trough now over the Plains states will
continue to move east today. This feature will move across the
region tonight helping to push a cold front south across the area.
This should allow a drier airmass to advance southward this
evening which should help to bring an end to the light rain and
drizzle over the northern half of the region. The front should
stall out over southern sections with rain chances continuing

A stronger upper level low pressure now over northwest Mexico will
lift northeastward Monday into the Lower Mississippi River Valley
and take on an increasingly negative tilt. This will help to spawn
surface low pressure along the Upper Texas coast by Monday morning
which will lift northeast across the Mid South and deepen by
Monday night. Forcing associated with both the surface low and
upper trough feature should increase lift over the region on
Monday and Monday night with widespread rain and thunderstorms
developing and pushing across the area. There remains uncertainty
as to how far north a developing surface warm front and quality
low level moist warm sector airmass will lift on Monday night. It
still appears that widespread rain and thunderstorms may hinder
the northward push of this front prior to occlusion of the surface
low which should occur over our area. This should keep the
unstable warm sector to our southeast along with the greatest
threat for severe weather. Considering that there remains a bit of
uncertainty this will continue to be monitored closely. At this
time...a higher potential exists for periods of heavy rainfall
with several inches of rainfall possible...especially across the
drought stricken areas of north Mississippi. This should help to
alleviate the drought conditions of late. Although localized
flooding will be possible in poor drainage areas...the dry
conditions should allow for much of this rainfall to be absorbed
into the dry soils helping to limit widespread flooding.

This system will lift out to the northeast on Tuesday with rain
ending from west to east. Seasonable temperatures can be expected
on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly dry weather conditions.

Another stronger upper level trough and arctic cold front will
approach the region by Wednesday night. There remains some
disagreement among the model guidance with respect to timing and
degree of moisture associated with this system...with the ECMWF
slower and wetter as compared to the faster and drier GFS. At this
time have taken a blend of the guidance and end precipitation by
Thursday morning across eastern sections. Scattered rain showers
can be expected across much of the area Wednesday night...with a
changeover to light rain or snow as colder air pushes in late
behind the front. Any winter type precipitation should remain
quite light and brief in not anticipating any
hazardous travel.

Much colder temperatures along with a return to dry conditions can
be expected later Thursday through the end of the upcoming week.
High temperatures should remain in the 30s both Thursday and
Friday with lows in the teens and 20s.

THe next storm system will approach the region by next weekend.
There remains the potential for some winter weather across
northern portions of the Mid South. Uncertainty regarding
temperature profiles do exist so this will be refined over the
next several forecast cycles. appears that a taste
of winter can be expected for the end of the extended forecast
period for much of the Mid South.



.AVIATION...18z TAF Cycle

Low clouds and BR will continue today MVFR cigs possible at times
this afternoon...but IFR or LIFR cigs will return tonight. Winds
North to Northeast around 5kt. BR/FG will reduce visibility again
overnight...only minor improvement to cigs and vis is expected by
18z tomorrow.




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