Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 290455

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1155 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

Currently the Midsouth was experiencing mostly sunny
skies...southerly breezes and temperatures in the mid and upper
80s. Dewpoints in the 60s were keeping the humidity tolerable.

For tonight and tomorrow...surface high pressure over the
Appalachian Mountains will slide off the East Coast this
period providing a stronger fetch of gulf moisture in the
Mississippi Valley. Thus a pop-up shower or storm will be
introduced tomorrow with the southeast counties showing some
favoritism. Temperatures will top out in the mid and upper
80s...but with dewpoints climbing into the 70s heat indices in
the low to mid 90s will be felt.

Friday and Saturday...better rain chances will be seen this period
as the gulf moisture pools ahead of an approaching cold front.
CAM`s show a weakening MCS over the Ozarks Friday morning sending
an outflow into portions of Northeast Arkansas that may be a
trigger for later day storms...but a greater bet will be for a
second MCS to form along the front in the Ozarks...impacting our
area Friday night into early Saturday. CAPE amounts of 1500-2500
j/kg coupled with 7-8C lapse rates and increasing midlevel flow
will place at least a marginal risk for some severe storms this
period. Have introduced this threat in the afternoon HWO. Rain
coverage later Saturday is still in question as the atmosphere may
be well worked over. Thus a few locations may be able to get in
some outdoor activities. Highs will generally be in the mid and
upper 80s...with muggy lows in the 70s.

Sunday through next Wednesday...weaker midlevel disturbances
passing across the Mid Mississippi Valley coupled with the
lingering 70`s dewpoints will provide for your typical summertime
convection that is isolated to scattered in coverage and diurnally
driven. Better rain chances may arrive next Wednesday according
to the GFS and ECMWF as a stronger shortwave drops south into the
Lower Ohio Valley. Seasonal temperatures will continue this period.




06Z TAF Set

VFR conditions will primarily occur over the next 18 hours. The
one exception will be at KTUP where MVFR CIGS(possibly as low as
IFR) will spread into the TAF site between 12-15Z. CIGS will
gradually lift by 18-19Z. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms will
begin developing across areas mainly south of Interstate 40
around 18-20Z. Will continue with VCTS wording at KMEM and KTUP
and add it to KMKL. MVFR CIGS will spread back northward during
the evening. Expect KTUP, KMKL, and KMEM to be MVFR by the end of
the TAF period. Light SSE winds between 4-8 KTS will continue
overnight. Speeds will increase to 10-12 KTS by 15Z as the
direction becomes more southerly. Gusts between 15-20 KTS will
occur during the afternoon hours. Speeds will diminish between
6-10 KTS after 00-02Z.






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