Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 101711 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
A PREVIOUSLY DIMINISHING MCS OVER EASTERN OK WAS BEGINNING TO
REORGANIZE AS IT MOVED INTO NORTHWEST AR A MIDDAY. HRRR SUGGESTS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL AR... BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVER THE EAST AR DELTA BY 8 PM.

GIVEN THAT THE HRRR IS A LITTLE BEHIND ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE MCS... HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 429 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014/

CURRENTLY... AS OF 4AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THE AREA IS FREE OF RAIN FOR THE
MOMENT...WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION. FURTHER UPSTREAM...AN MCS IS DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...HOWEVER READINGS ARE STILL
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PRETTY MUCH WASHED OUT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA WILL HAVE
THE BEST COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALLOWING FOR A FEW DAYTIME SHOWERS TO POP UP. THE REST THE OF THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE MID-SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S DURING
THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT DUE TO THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTIONABLE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST AS CHANCES WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BY SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WINDS
WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH DRAMATICALLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS RESIDED
OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE PLACE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON TRIGGERING A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE MID-SOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A LITTLE
QUESTIONABLE BEING NEARLY FIVE DAYS OUT. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD THIS PAST
TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT.

REST OF THE WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EFFECTIVELY
KEEPING THE MID-SOUTH WET WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (10/18Z-11/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD...THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP 11/08Z-11/12Z. LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.