Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 241134
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
634 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

A potent upper trof will move into the Mid-South today. Clouds
will begin to spread into the area after mid-morning. Chances for
isolated to scattered showers will occur across the Missouri
Bootheel, Northeast Arkansas, West Tennessee and Northeast
Mississippi. A wide temperature range will occur across the area
as Northwest Mississippi may stay out of the clouds. Highs will
range from the upper 50s near Paris, Tennessee to the mid 60s near
Clarksdale, Mississippi.

Clouds will clear the Tennessee River around midnight. This will
allow temperatures to plummet into the mid to upper 30s. Frost may
develop in locations that drop down into the mid 30s. Since some
vegetation is blooming due to the unusual warm weather the Mid-South
has experienced lately, decided to issue a Frost Advisory for
most of West Tennessee and portions of North Mississippi.

Another shortwave will rotate through the upper trof on Wednesday
and will skirt the Mid-South. The 3KM NAM shows isolated showers
developing across West Tennessee near the Tennessee River while
other models are dry. For now have left the dry forecast, but did
bump up cloud cover across the area.

Winds will turn around to the south by Thursday. Strong warm air
advection will occur ahead of the next cold front. As a result,
temperatures will warm considerably during the day. Highs will be
in the mid to upper 70s across much of the CWA.

A cold front will then move into the Mid-South on Friday. Showers
will accompany the front through the area. Much cooler
temperatures will filter into the region behind the front. Highs
over the weekend will only be in the 50s. The first freeze may
occur across portions of the CWA Saturday Night depending on cloud
cover from another upper trof that will be moving through the
area at that time.

A warming trend will occur for the beginning of next week as winds
turn back around to the south as surface high pressure moves east.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Scattered to
broken clouds around 7000 ft are expected to develop by midday as
an upper-level trough swings through the area. This may result in
isolated, light showers this afternoon, mainly over northeast TN.
These clouds should persist into the evening hours but are
forecast to clear out late. Expect gusty WNW winds approaching 15
kts, with gusts 20-25 kts at times for most of the day,
decreasing to 10 kts or less after sunset.

Johnson

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton
     MS-Marshall-Prentiss-Tippah-Union.

TN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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