Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 032106
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO DEVELOP BETTER OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AL STRETCHING
SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
FURTHER NORTH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS ENTERING EXTREME
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY FROM CAMDEN TO
BUTLER IN AL. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE AL/NWFL BORDER DUE TO A
LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AND SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
AND AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
STRETCHING FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO WAYNESBORO MS.

LATEST MESO ANALYSIS FROM SPC DEPICTS MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WHERE
THE BETTER CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WHICH WILL LIKELY ERODE QUICKLY
AFTER 7 PM AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. ALOFT LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS
AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE
MOVING SE ACROSS AL AND SW GA THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED
AS IT NEARS THE FL PANHANDLE COAST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI. TO THE
WEST A WELL DEFINED MID TO UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST IN THE PAST 24
HOURS WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SHOWING A NOSE OF WARMER/DRYER AIR GENERALLY BETWEEN
700 AND 500 MB PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS PATTERN BELIEVE
WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN DUE TO THE LACK OF GOOD FORCING ALOFT AND DRIER MORE STABLE
AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL CONTINUE LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/ECS THROUGH
FRI AFT DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE
MIDDLE 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL CLIMB TO THE
MIDDLE 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

[FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY]...A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TX TO THE UPPER MIDWESTERN STATES AND AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTACT
FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN MORE SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE BY SATURDAY UNDERNEATH THE MOIST NORTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN AND WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEABREEZE. WILL KEEP COVERAGE
IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH LOWS RANGING AROUND 70 INLAND TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST...AND HIGHS SATURDAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 90 NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. /21


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THE ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS IT OPENS
INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING AROUND 90...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM AROUND
70 TO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
/21

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS THROUGH MONDAY. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS LESS THEN
30 KNOTS. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  91  74  91  72 /  30  30  20  40  30
PENSACOLA   75  91  75  90  74 /  30  30  20  40  40
DESTIN      80  90  77  89  75 /  30  30  20  40  40
EVERGREEN   71  94  70  93  70 /  20  20  20  40  30
WAYNESBORO  71  95  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CAMDEN      71  95  71  93  71 /  20  20  10  30  20
CRESTVIEW   71  95  71  93  70 /  30  30  20  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32/21


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