Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 231757 AAC
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder
of the day. Fog will return late this evening, becoming dense in
spots late tonight. VLIFR/LIFR conditions will be possible in
dense fog overnight into Friday morning. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1114 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Low clouds continue across portions of the area, however
they are starting to erode quickly as the high sun angle and
warming temps continue to work. This will allow to temps in these
area to quickly rise through the afternoon hours. Most areas away
from the coast will top out in the mid and upper 70s with highs
around 80 in portions of southeast Mississippi. Coastal locations
will top out in the mid 70s. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 734 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
23/12Z issuance...Areas of fog this morning and again late
tonight. Locally dense in some locations with vsby 1/4 mile or
less. IFR to LIFR vsbys and cig (below 500 feet) at times,
otherwise VFR conditions expected. Surface winds primarily light
east to southeast. 12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...Low pressure system
moving east from Florida peninsula out over Atlantic Ocean today
and tonight, with ridging building over our local forecast area.
This will bring mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures
to the region today and tonight. Will start off this morning with
some low clouds and patchy fog, especially over eastern third of
forecast area. As of now, it is mainly a low deck of stratus
clouds, but some locations over eastern counties reporting fog
with visibility generally ranging from 3-5 miles although a few
locations (GZH) reporting 1/2 mile with fog. Expect the low clouds
and fog to dissipate by mid morning as atmosphere becomes better
mixed after sunrise with daytime heating processes. Thereafter,
temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s under sunny
mostly skies most locations today, possibly around 80 over over
interior southeast Mississippi. More patches of low clouds and fog
late tonight, otherwise mostly clear skies continue. Lows tonight
in the mid 50s all interior zones, near 60 at the coast. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Upper ridge will
shift east to the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic through
early sat morning in response to a dampening short wave trof
moving east across much of the eastern conus late fri through
sat. A surface cold front is expected to move across the central
gulf states with this pattern fri night and early sat morning.
Scattered rainshowers are expected ahead and along the front...
occurring mostly after midnight fri night...moving east of the
forecast generally around midday on sat. Skies will also clear
from west to east beginning late sat morning. With limited
forcing in the mid levels combined with limited instability near
the surface thunderstorm development is not expected at this time.
Rainfall totals possibly up .05 inches locally can be expected
fri through sat night. Temps fri will range from the upper 70s to
near 80...lower to middle 50s inland and the upper 50s to near 60
along the coast fri night...mid 60s to near 70 inland and the
lower 70s near the coast sat...cooling to the mid to upper 30s
well inland and the lower to middle 40s closer to the coast sat
night.

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...Expect generally a zonal
flow in the mid to upper levels sun through mon followed by a
broad upper trof deepening over the western conus tracking
eastward tue through wed. At the surface a broad surface ridge of
high pressure over much of the eastern conus and north central
gulf states on sun will shift east to the eastern seaboard and
western Atlantic mon through wed as a surface cold front
approaches from the west tues and early wed...moving across the
forecast area late wed and wed night. With this pattern scattered
rain showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are expected for
most locations in the forecast area on mon due mostly to a weak
impulse tracking east across the deep south in the mean upper flow
well ahead of the front...followed by better coverage of showers
and thunderstorms late tues into wed as the main upper trof and
attendant cold front approach from the west. At this time general
thunderstorms are expected tue into wed with maybe an isolated
strong or severe thunderstorm possible...occurring mostly during
the day on wed due to better forcing aloft combined with better
instability also noted near the surface ahead of the front. High
temps sun will be near seasonal norms generally in the mid 60s
with lows sun night ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland and
the lower to middle 50s closer to the coast. For later in the week
highs will generally range from the mid 70s to near 80 with lows
generally in the lower to middle 60s. 32/ee

MARINE...High pressure ridge over the marine area will create a
light to moderate mainly east to southeast wind today through
Friday. This onshore flow increases along with building seas Friday
night as a cold front approaches from the west and then moves across
the coastal waters early Saturday. A moderate to strong offshore
flow will develop in the wake of the front, strongest on Saturday
morning, but persisting somewhat through Saturday night. Highest
seas for forecast period will occur in same general timeframe.. A
Small Craft Advisory may be required Saturday as winds (especially
in gusts) will likely be 20 knots or slightly higher. High pressure
will drift east across the marine area Sunday through Monday night,
with moderate winds (and seas) become more easterly on Sunday and
then more southerly by Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions (winds 15-20 knots) possibly extending into early next
week. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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