Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 290830
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HELPS TO AMPLIFY THE EASTERN
STATES TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE THIS FRONT...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST UNDER A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW PATTERN. WHILE
HIGHS TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER 90S IN MOST AREAS...A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING TO AN INCH OR LESS
DURING THE AFTERNOON! THE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CREATE MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
NOT BE A PROBLEM. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALSO CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT MOBILE WHERE
65 WOULD BREAK THE RECORD OF 67 LAST SET IN 1994.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK: NONE

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UNUSUALLY STRONG LONGWAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY WHICH IS 2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WEAKENS SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW LINGERS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  WHILE THIS PATTERN MAKES FOR A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN STATES SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH ALLOWS
FOR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.  A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND A SURFACE LOW ADVANCING EASTWARD
TO NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY WILL SUPPORT A RETURN OF SMALL POPS
ON THURSDAY TO GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THEN WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY DRY DEEP LAYER AIR OVER THE
AREA...WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. AM EXPECTING THE
RECORD LOW OF 66 TO BE TIED AT MOBILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RECORD LOW
AT PENSACOLA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS 67 BUT EXPECT THE OVERNIGHT LOW
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THIS VALUE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND NEAR NORMAL
FURTHER EAST. /29

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES REMAINS WELL DEFINED THROUGH SATURDAY THEN WEAKENS
THROUGH MONDAY TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION. THE SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING ADVANCES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BOTH LOOK TO DISSIPATE ON MONDAY WITH A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN STATES PROMOTING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND WILL HAVE CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE AREA. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AS WELL AS WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THEN TREND TO NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES BY
SATURDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER
SEAS. /13

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO THE MID-UPPER 30S TODAY THEN DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS TODAY...FOR WEDNESDAY THESE VALUES ARE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  AT THIS TIME WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL
NOT BE ISSUED. DISPERSION VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 75-95 OVER MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  65  90  66  90 /  05  00  00  05  20
PENSACOLA   91  69  90  70  90 /  10  00  00  05  10
DESTIN      87  70  90  71  90 /  10  00  00  05  10
EVERGREEN   90  59  89  60  91 /  00  00  00  05  10
WAYNESBORO  90  61  89  62  89 /  00  00  05  05  30
CAMDEN      90  59  89  61  91 /  00  05  05  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  61  91  60  92 /  05  00  00  05  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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