Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 260306 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1006 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...An upper level ridge of high pressure remains oriented from
western portions of the Gulf of Mexico to the Central Gulf Coast
Region this evening, with dry weather continuing across our area
underneath this feature. IR satellite imagery does show increased
high level cloudiness spreading across southeast MS and into
southwest AL well ahead of isolated convection which developed near
the Mississippi River this evening. We increased gridded sky coverage
a bit overnight to account for the high cloudiness. The low temperature
forecast generally remains on track, though did make some slight
adjustments to hourly temp/dewpoint grids to account for the latest
trends. The latest high HRRR, RAP, NAM-12 and SREF continue to
depict potential for patchy fog development early Thursday morning,
mainly across interior portions of the northwest FL panhandle and
adjacent south central and southwest AL. We have kept patchy fog
mention over these areas and have trimmed back mention elsewhere.
Updates have been sent. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions will remain prevalent for the most part
across the forecast area through the next 24 hours with scattered to
occasionally broken high level cloud cover moving overhead. The
exception could once again be localized MVFR to IFR fog development
across isolated locations, mainly between 26.09-13Z early Thursday
morning. Confidence was low enough to keep VFR in the local TAFs
with this issuance. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...An upper level ridge will
remain in place through Thursday. This will maintain the hot and dry
conditions. Some patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight
before gradually clearing during the morning. Lows tonight will fall
into the mid and upper 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. Highs
on Thursday will climb into the upper 80s to low and mid 80s along
the coast. Conditions will also become increasingly uncomfortable as
humidity levels rise. /13

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...A surface ridge
extending westward from the surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic will persist through Saturday, keeping a light south to
southeast wind flow over the region, along with dry weather
conditions. This wind flow will bring low level moisture northward
across the forecast area, resulting in patchy fog development late
each night through the short term. An upper level trough over the
central plains will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes on
Sunday. With the upper energy passing just off to the northwest,
have maintained isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for Sunday afternoon across our inland zones.

Low temperatures will range from 65 to 70 degrees inland areas...with
lower 70s along the immediate coastal sections. High temperatures
will range from 85 to 90 degrees inland areas...with lower 80s along
the immediate coastal sections. /22

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...The Great Lakes upper trough
Sunday morning will eject off to the northeast while a system
meanders off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline through Tuesday.
Meanwhile a surface ridge over the area weakens, possibly yielding to
the development of a surface trough extending from the system off
the SE US coast. As a result, isolated to low-end scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime hours through
the long term as the environment becomes more conducive for
convection. A gradual warming trend will occur through the period
with inland highs ranging from 90 to 95 degrees Monday through
Wednesday...with upper 80s along the coast. Lows will range from 68
to 73 degrees with mid 70s at the beaches. /22

MARINE...High pressure will continue from the the western Atlantic
into the southeast through the weekend. This will maintain a
generally light wind flow. Little change in seas expected through
the period. /13

&&

.MOB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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