Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 230504
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN OK AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE...WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT MOST TERMINALS BY 16Z TO 18Z WEDNESDAY.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON FROM KWWR/KGAG SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z. SCT TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX AND MOVE EAST INTO THE
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH WESTERN TERMINALS IN
THE 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME...AND HAVE ADDED VCTS AND CB GROUPS TO
LATER PERIODS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN STORM COVERAGE REMAINS LOW FURTHER
EAST...AND WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MARKEDLY AT
WESTERN TERMINALS. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
35 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON FROM KGAG/KWWR SWD TO KCSM/KHBR BY 18Z TO
22Z WEDNESDAY. WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ANY ONE TAF SITE BEING IMPACTED BY
STORMS...SO WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUSION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WX PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH SEVERE WX POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONT
TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP TO THE
WEST OF THE FA IN THE TEXAS AND OK PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THIS DRYLINE WED
AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FA. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND SOME WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY WILL MEAN THAT SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS... THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH IN WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THAT A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW
AND LET LATER SHIFTS CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.

OVER THE WEEKEND... AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FA SATURDAY WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE SAT AFTN/EVENING WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHICH COULD AFFECT PARTS OF THE FA DEPENDING
ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT LIFTS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY... WITH
LARGE HAIL... STRONG WINDS... AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ON SUNDAY...
THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST. HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE BY THE AFTERNOON IS STILL A QUESTION BUT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ON SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY... WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT COOL
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  54  84  62 /   0   0  10  40
HOBART OK         81  56  85  59 /   0   0  20  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  82  58  86  63 /   0   0  10  40
GAGE OK           79  57  85  51 /   0   0  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     76  50  84  61 /   0   0   0  40
DURANT OK         80  57  83  62 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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