Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 021115
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

ISO-SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF KWWR-KOKC
THROUGH 18Z. ADDED VCSH AT SEVERAL SITES. BRIEF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IF SHRA DIRECTLY AFFECTS A GIVEN SITE.

ADDITIONAL ISO TSRA MAY FORM IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAFS AS COVERAGE WILL BE
SPARSE AND CHANCES OF DIRECTLY IMPACTING A SITE REMAIN LOW.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.

TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY EXISTS. SEVERE STORMS SEEM
UNLIKELY...BUT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVER AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SPARSE WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR LIFT IN WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. GUIDANCE HIGHS SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED...
GENERALLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE
SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR TO
TODAY...THUS KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT WARMER
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS HINT THAT ONE
OR MORE COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. RAINFALL MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO STRONGER
WIND SHEAR. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY MAY BE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...CLOUDS...AND NEARBY RAIN...BUT MAY BE QUITE HOT OVER
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOT...PERHAPS VERY HOT...WEATHER IS
FORECAST. WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. IMPRESSED THAT 925 MB TEMPERATURES MAY SOAR TO NEAR
OR ABOVE 35C BY THURSDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
AT THE GROUND. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE
NECESSARY. CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG FOR RAIN OR STORM FORMATION.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  93  71  93  71 /  10  10  10  30
HOBART OK         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           93  68  91  68 /  20  20  20  50
PONCA CITY OK     94  72  94  70 /  10  10  10  40
DURANT OK         96  71  98  74 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

84/17/17



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