Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 181736
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

...Aviation Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18z TAFs:

Overnight convection changed the environment enough to cast doubt
on convective development this afternoon. Isolated storms at best
(and probably none) are expected across a good portion of
northwest Oklahoma. There will be some variation in wind direction
today given the presence of remnant convective boundaries, but
generally south-southwesterly winds will prevail with some backing
to south-southeasterly this evening with the typical diurnal
cycle. Wind speeds should be light though, but strongest in
western Oklahoma where speeds could reach or slightly exceed 12
knots. Some fog could form again late tonight across portions of
south- central and eastern Oklahoma, generally east of all of our
TAF sites.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1147 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

..Update...

DISCUSSION...
We just sent an update to continue the trend that the overnight
shift started and lowered the precipitation probabilities further
across portions of northwestern into central Oklahoma. Overnight
convection resulted in a fairly significant meso high centered
just north of Cheyenne on our 12z surface hand analysis has been
deleterious to thermodynamic environment across northwest
Oklahoma. Significant convective overturning had occurred and a
drier boundary layer is in place (i.e., some mid-upper 50 degree
dew points earlier this morning that has slowly recovered). The
scenario that we talked about yesterday for this afternoon looks
unlikely to materialize. Less convergence along the western extend
of southeastward moving weak cold front and mid-level height
rises/QG vector divergence is also working against our chances.

Further south, convection is ongoing associated with a band of
mid-level moisture across north Texas. This should become
increasingly surface based and expand northeastward into our
south-central and southeast counties later today. We`ll also need
to watch trends in the observations for 1.) potential isolated
development further north near remnant convective boundaries,
generally east of I-35, and 2.) development across north-central
and northeast Oklahoma with a weak cold front that could approach
late this evening or overnight.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20
Hobart OK         73  97  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  74  97  75  97 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           70  95  72  95 /  10  20  20  20
Ponca City OK     72  94  73  94 /  30  10  20  20
Durant OK         75  95  75  95 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/12



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