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000
FXUS63 KPAH 200808
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

RATHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...WITH WEAK FLOW
FIELDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO RULE OUT ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE IMPULSES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD INDUCE A FEW POP UP SHOWERS/STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
TODAY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT IS EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MISSOURI. THE MODELS BRING THIS SHORTWAVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATER
TODAY. EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST TO INCLUDE MOST OF WEST
KENTUCKY AND SRN ILLINOIS. DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
OVER SW INDIANA/NW KENTUCKY...THAT AREA WILL BE LEFT DRY IN THE
FORECAST. AREAS OF MID CLOUDS AND DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MAY KEEP TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY.

DEEP LAYER DRYING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A NARROW 500 MB RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK IMPULSES COULD
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...VERY LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY /FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ PRECLUDE THE MENTION OF POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND. USED A BLEND OF NAM
AND GFS MOS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

OVERALL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE SW FLOW OVER THE WRN/NRN
PART OF THE NATION WITH AN ILL DEFINED RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER
THE SE U.S. EMBEDDED WILL BE A WEAK H5 LOW OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES THAT WILL DRIFT NORTH AND PASS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA. WILL
KEEP SLIM CHANCE POPS OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. AFTER THAT FEATURE MOVES EAST...THE H5 HIGH RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE WEST AND ALLOW TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WITH
TIME. MAINLY DIURNAL SLIM CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING BETTER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONT
MOVING INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE AREA. VERY WARM AND HUMID
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013

SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AROUND
SUNRISE. AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST
TODAY...WITH A DECK OF SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS BENEATH IT FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
VERY LOW AT THE TAF SITES. CLOUD BASES WILL BE ABOVE 3K FEET. THE CU
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MY
LONG TERM...CN