Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261815

1214 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.


Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.




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