Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 201105
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
400 AM MST MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATED...AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL DRYING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BUSY EVENING YESTERDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION HAVE QUIETED DOWN. SKIES HAVE CLEARED FOR THE MOST PART
WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN SONORA
MEXICO SLOWLY MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAIRLY HIGH AFTER AN UPTICK YESTERDAY AND WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THOUGH FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT WARMING IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD. THIS
WARMING WILL LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH LESS INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...FEEL STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...LESS
ORGANIZED...AND THUS PRODUCE LESS OUTFLOWS. THE STRONG OUTFLOWS ON
SUNDAY IS WHAT ALLOWED FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS...SO A REPEAT OF SUNDAY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON TUESDAY SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY...BUT THE
GRADUAL DRYING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AWAY ANY THREAT OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION BY THURSDAY. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL STAY WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN PACIFIC JET STREAM THIS WEEK WHILE A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 588DM LATE THIS WEEK
PROVIDING FOR A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS PROBABLE STARTING EITHER SUNDAY OR
NEXT MONDAY AS THE RIDGE IS SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN AND BROAD SCALE
TROUGHING SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
DRY WEATHER STARTING BY LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

THROUGH 03Z TUE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WIND UNDER 8 KNOTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AS HIGH AS 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ











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