Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 060905
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
205 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...PUTTING DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTO ARIZONA. LATEST PLOT DATA INDICATED UP TO 100M H5 HEIGHT RISES
ACROSS SRN AZ WITH 500MB HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 580DM OVER SRN AZ.
PWAT VALUES WERE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER ARIZONA AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AT 2 AM THIS MORNING WERE LOW...MOSTLY RANGING
FROM LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. HIGH TEMP AT
PHOENIX YESTERDAY FINALLY REACHED NORMAL LEVELS...COMING IN AT 69
DEGREES. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST THIS WEEKEND WE
WILL SEE THE WARM AIR ALOFT STEADILY MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS UNDER SUNNY
SKIES...REACHING THE UPPER 70S OVER THE WARMER LOWER DESERTS BY
SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INLAND OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH H5 HEIGHTS IN EXCESS OF 585DM MOVING INLAND
OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL TRANSLATE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SET UP ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR H5 HEIGHTS AS WELL AS LOW/MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 99 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB 10 DEGREES OR MORE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK. WARMEST LOWER DESERTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 80S MONDAY...THEN RISE INTO THE MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGHS EACH DAY WILL STAY SLIGHTLY SHORT
OF RECORD VALUES IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE A RECORD SET
SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER SERN CA OR SRN AZ DESERTS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK POSSIBLY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY. SKIES EACH DAY WILL BE SUNNY UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY WHEN
SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD IS EXPECTED FROM THE WEST. FOR THE MOST
PART THE HIGH CLOUD WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT THIN AND WELL ABOVE 500MB SO IT SHOULD NOT ACT TO SUPPRESS
OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES AND SHOULD FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 80 DEGREE
MARK BY TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WELL BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...THOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH


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