Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 210819
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
119 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL RESULT IN NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. BY THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS HAS SLOWED THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND
READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S AS
OF 08Z. WINDS WERE LIGHT.

OFFSHORE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID WEEK BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOMEWHAT
BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE IF THE +2 TO +3 STDEV RIDGE AXIS WAS OVERHEAD.
LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW IN THE UPPER 60S WHICH IS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED BREEZINESS...BUT
NO CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS ARE BACK IN AGREEMENT
ONCE AGAIN INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS...JUST BRUSHING PARTS OF ARIZONA IN THE
PROCESS. ACROSS THE LOWER AZ AND SE CA DESERTS A TROUGH OF THIS
NATURE SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT. FROM
THERE...BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CIRRUS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH NORTH AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXPANDING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AT RIDGETOPS WILL BE QUITE STRONG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP DRAMATICALLY FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY. SOME SPOTS MAY FLIRT WITH
CRITICAL WIND AND HUMIDITY THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME MODEST COOLING AS WELL. ANOTHER EPISODE OF ENHANCED
WINDS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ





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