Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 021626
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BY MID DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LESSEN CONSIDERABLY FOR MIDWEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...9 AM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED THE UPPER
LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST. BASED ON TRENDS THE CENTER HAS
STOPPED DIGGING S AND IS MOVING ENE. IT WILL OPEN UP AS IT MOVES ENE
ACROSS SRN CA THIS MORNING AND UP INTO NRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL DOPPLER RADARS PAINTED SHOWERS ACROSS WRN AZ MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE E. AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN ARE IN THIS BAND WITH AJO RECORDING
0.35" BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND HRRR DATA
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO SE
PINAL/ERN PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM...GIVE OR TAKE
AN HOUR. THE CENTRAL TO NE MOUNTAINS WILL START A LITTLE EARLIER DUE
TO THE STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE CRASHING THIS
AFTERNOON...DOWN TO AROUND 6500 FEET WITH SNOW PICKING UP IN
INTENSITY. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT WINTER STORM FOR THE WHITES AND
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES PINALENO/CATALINA/RINCON MTNS THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AFTER 11 AM. WIND ALSO AN ISSUE TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND COCHISE COUNTY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
HAVE SEE SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE
THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN
ZONES BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MORE ON THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA THRU THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SCT CUMULUS NEAR 4-6K FT AGL WITH BKN-OVC LAYERS ABV
THROUGH 25K FT...THEN AFT 02/18Z BECOMING BKN-OVC 4-6K FT WITH
MULTIPLE LAYERS ABV AND IFR/MVFR CONDS OVER MTNS AND NEAR SHOWERS.
ISOLD SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE NEAR KTUS 02/23Z AND KDUG NEAR 03/05Z. SFC WINDS S
8-16 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG SOUTHERLY JET TODAY WITH
WINDS 30-50 KTS 5-10K FT MSL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS S AND E OF TUCSON...WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. SHOWERS OVER WESTERN PIMA COUNTY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SE AZ AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY
ONWARD.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WINTER STORM WARNING 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST TUESDAY
  ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ510-511.

 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 11 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 1 AM MST
  TUESDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR AZZ514.

 WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
  AZZ512>515.

&&

$$

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