Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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175
FXUS65 KTWC 232053
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
153 PM MST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A storm system exiting the area will still result in a
few residual showers into tonight mainly north and east of Tucson
along with gusty winds area-wide. Dry conditions with somewhat
milder temperatures and gusty winds at times will occur over the
weekend into early next week. A more active weather pattern will
move in for the middle of next week with another chance of showers,
cooler temperatures and some gusty winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper
low across far northern Arizona with a trough axis extending
southward across the state. The earlier precipitation associated
with the cold front is now near the New Mexico border with some
instability showers that have developed from the Tucson area north
and eastward. These scattered showers will continue through about
sunset before dissipating with any remnant chance of snow
showers in the White Mountains tonight with dry conditions
elsewhere. Meanwhile, temperatures are running about 20 degrees
colder than 24 hours ago with most valley locations in the 60`s. The
gusty winds especially east of Tucson will taper off shortly after
sunset.

One concern tonight will be low temperatures near or below freezing
in some of the usual colder spots in Cochise, far southern Graham
and eastern Santa Cruz county. While the average freeze for these
areas is well into April, given the warm weather of late, the
cold overnight temperatures could be of concern for some folks.
Given the long term climatology with freezes fairly common this
time of year, we will not put out any freeze headlines but this may
be of concern to some.

Shortwave ridging will build in for Friday with mostly sunny skies
and temperatures warming back up to seasonable levels. Heading into
the weekend and early next week, we will see a fairly progressive
pattern take shape. The next system will remain to our north on
Saturday/Saturday night but the gradient will tighten again for some
afternoon breezes. High temperatures will rebound back into the
lower 80`s on Saturday for Tucson. Another shortwave ridge for
Sunday before another system starts digging into the southwest by
late Monday. The models are in agreement with regard to a more
amplified trough evolving into a cutoff low by Tuesday
and Wednesday. Still some uncertainty regarding the specifics in
terms of timing and placement, but confidence is certainly high
regarding a more active pattern by the middle of next week. We have
gone ahead and introduced slight chance to low end chance PoPs for
much of the area Tuesday into Wednesday as a starting point. Will
also see some increased winds and cooler temperatures by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Thereafter, perhaps a brief break on Thursday before
another potentially strong system moves into the region by next
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
SCT-BKN cloud decks at 6-9k ft AGL mainly east of KTUS thru 24/00Z
with isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA, then clearing skies from
west to east. WLY/NWLY surface wind at 12-22 kts and
gusts to 25-30 kts this afternoon, tapering off after 24/02Z with
typical light and terrain driven winds overnight into Friday
morning. A few gusts up to 20 kts possible near KSAD Friday
afternoon, otherwise winds generally less than 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Pacific storm system will bring a few showers
mainly north/northeast of Tucson this afternoon. Dry conditions move
in tonight with the exception of the White Mountains where a few
snow showers may occur. Dry conditions will then prevail
Friday into Monday. Gusty winds will taper off this evening, then
less wind Friday. Elevated and gusty afternoon winds
are forecast Saturday, though below critical thresholds. Some
afternoon gusts again Sunday and Monday. A more significant
Pacific storm system will move in by Tuesday and Wednesday with
the chance of some showers along with gusty winds and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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