Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS65 KTWC 220955
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will gradually increase to
record levels by Thanksgiving and into the upcoming weekend. Dry
conditions will continue into at least early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper ridge axis extending from off Baja California
north into northern California clearing visible on infrared and
water vapor imagery. High clouds continue to move across the state
on the front side of this ridge but is much less in areal coverage
versus yesterday. At the surface a back door cold front was
pushing west across New Mexico this morning. This front will wash
out before moving into the area but cooler temperatures will move
in the eastern zones today. Gusty east-southeast winds have been
occuring in the mountains where some gusts this morning has been
in the 25-35 mph range. These gusty winds will diminish this
afternoon.

Otherwise the main story continue to be the record or near record
high temperatures that will be occuring during the Thanksgiving
4-day holiday weekend thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure
over Arizona and northern Mexico. If EC/Canadian is right may not
be warm enough this weekend. Today marks the latest date of 90
degrees for Tucson, which occurred in 1924. Will be threatening to
break this record.

Changes early next week as a strong Pacific trof with associated
cold front moves across the intermountain west on Tuesday. Some
timing/depth differences between GFS/EC/Canadian but we are
looking at cooler readings by Tuesday. Made some downward
adjustments to high temperatures on Tuesday, but it could
eventually be cooler like near normal. Oh my. Something to watch
and plenty of time to iron out the details.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 23/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 20k ft AGL through much of the forecast period.
SFC wind ELY/SELY at 10-17 kts with higher gusts this morning. Wind
speeds diminishing during the afternoon hours. SFC wind generally
less than 10 kts aft 22/23Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. Well
above normal temperatures return to the region today, continuing
through the upcoming weekend. 20-foot winds will be gusty from the
southeast to east today. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be terrain
driven and mainly less than 15 mph at other times.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several web pages are headlined on our website that
pertain to the record temperatures that will be occurring during
the Thanksgiving 4 day holiday weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.