Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230401
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS BACK IN PLACE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z KTWC SOUNDING STARTING TO RAMP BACK UP WITH PW
VALUES BACK OVER 1.3 INCHES AND AN INCREASING EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ORGANIZED CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA NOW PUSHING OUTFLOWS THROUGH SE AZ WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG OUTFLOWS SPREADING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH A FOCUS IN CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY. INTERSECTING
OUTFLOWS COULD PUSH UP SOMETHING BRIEFLY STRONGER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. UPDATED EARLIER FOR MORE PERSISTENT TRENDS OVERNIGHT
WITH COVERAGE SPREADING A LITTLE FURTHER WEST.

VERY NICE FEATURE NEAR NEW ORLEANS THAT 12Z ECMWF FRAGMENTED INTO AN
EASTERLY WAVE UNDER THE HIGH CENTER...AND INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY.
THAT WOULD DO THE TRICK. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SERVING FOR
AN UP PERIOD WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL HEAT PROBLEMS SHOULDN`T BE QUITE
AS MUCH OF AN ISSUE FOR MOST OF OUR PART OF THE STATE WITH THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND
WRF/NAM SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN
COCHISE COUNTY AND TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE TUCSON AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MODELS THEN PROG DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
PLACES AND ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/03Z.
SCT -SHRA WITH ISOLD -TSRA OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF KTUS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. GENERALLY
SCT-BKN 10K FT AGL WITH BRIEF ISOLATED MVFR POSSIBLE IN CORE OF
STRONGEST SHOWERS. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE AGAIN HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF DOWNTURN IN STORM COVERAGE THURSDAY BEFORE A MORE
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN MOVES IN BY THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
POTENTIALLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...BUT WITH THIS WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE MOISTURE BACK IN THE PICTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...A DEFINITE UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH REPOSITIONS TO A
MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION OVER COLORADO. BOTH THE U OF A WRF/GFS AND
WRF/NAM SEEM TO SHOW THE BEST DEPICTION OF WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN
COCHISE COUNTY AND TRYING TO SPREAD TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT QUITE BEING ABLE TO MAKE IT
TO THE TUCSON AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY IT SHOWS ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING
GENERALLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS...INCLUDING TUCSON AND SPREADING WEST
INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
MODELS THEN PROG DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ON THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE POP FORECAST TO JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
PLACES AND ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAIN
TOPS.

A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...BUT MOSTLY
TO AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MONSOON
SHOULD KICK BACK IN THIS WEEKEND IN EARNEST...WITH THE HIGH
POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST MID LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP ON SATURDAY AND EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARIZONA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS A RESULT...LOOKING AT SCATTERED
CATEGORY POPS FOR MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT WITH AN
EMPHASIS FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND NOGALES...AS WELL AS THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH BEING GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER EITHER THE FOUR CORNERS OR NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE HIGH SETS
UP NEARLY OVERHEAD. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED
DESERT/VALLEY POPS AND SCATTERED FOR MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...THEN 3 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 6 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL EACH MORNING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/CERNIGLIA/MOLLERE






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