Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 290439
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
939 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS WEEK. WE WILL THEN HAVE A DECREASING
THREAT FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT TURNED INTO QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH AREAS FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND
WESTWARD BEING HIT THE HARDEST. THERE IS STILL A SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND FAR NW SANTA
CRUZ COUNTY UNTIL 1115 PM. SOME OF THE BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE
SLOWER REACTING SO RESIDUAL SMALL STREAM FLOODING ISSUES WILL
CONTINUE. MEANWHILE...PORTIONS OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA CAME IN WITH
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE
INCLUDING THE AIRPORT. NOTE THAT THE AIRPORT HAD 1.49 INCH OF RAIN.
THE TUCSON ASOS STOPPED COUNTING PRECIP DUE TO AN ERROR AFTER
ABOUT 0130Z BUT WE ARE MANUALLY ABLE TO SEE THE 1 MINUTE DATA
HERE...HENCE THE 1.49 INCH VALUE WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE HOURLY
METARS WHICH DIDN`T INCLUDE SOME OF THE PRECIP.

MEANWHILE...LATEST RADAR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MCS
CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON. BELIEVE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THIS MCS DOES CLOUD THE PICTURE FOR WEDNESDAY /NO PUN
INTENDED/ AS RESIDUAL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND A WORKED OVER BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LIMIT ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WEST.
WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT REEVALUATE THIS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
AND FULL REVIEW OF GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/06Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-14K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT 15-20K FT
AGL WITH RESIDUAL SHRA/TSRA TAPERING OFF BY ABOUT 29/09Z MOST
LOCATIONS. AFT 29/15Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-9K FT AGL. SCT-NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN AFT 29/18Z THROUGH ABOUT 30/04Z MVFR
CONDITIONS AND VRB WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE
STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS WEEK...
RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THURSDAY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH. OTHERWISE...
20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15
MPH...WITH SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS DUE TO THE
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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