Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 260432 AAA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
935 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions to start the week will give way
to increasing thunderstorm chances by Tuesday. Another push of
monsoonal moisture looks to impact the region for the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Fairly active evening across west central Mohave County as
thunderstorms were able to propagate from Coconino/Yavapai Counties
westward. Thunderstorms near the Highway 95 / Interstate 40 junction
were the strongest with one gauge measuring about an inch and a half
of rain in under an hour. These storms did produce an outflow that
tracked west through Mohave county and brought gusty east winds to
Kingman and Needles. As of 9pm these storms have dissipated and only
the far northeast corner of Mohave County still has some activity.
This activity is expected to dissipate before midnight leaving dry
conditions overnight. The last image on visible satellite before
darkness showed smoke from the Sand Fire mainly remaining west of
San Bernardino County. Although we could see some some push in
overnight, it does not look to be as thick as what we saw Sunday
evening. Just a few minor changes to the pops and sky grids, but
other grids in good shape.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION
244 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday...

Smoke from the Sand Fire in southern CA remains in place across San
Bernardino and Clark Counties this afternoon. As high pressure over
the four corners area drifts westward over the next couple days, the
smoke should clear out of Las Vegas while still affecting portions
of San Bernardino County. Temperatures will remain above normal in
most areas through the week as dry conditions continue. Monsoon
moisture tries to move back into the area this week but will have
difficulty with the westward migration of the high pressure ridge.
Have reduced pops for the rest of the week as guidance has come in
progressively drier. Expect a few showers and an occasional
thunderstorm over Mohave County each afternoon along with a slight
chance for a shower over the mountains of southern NV and San
Bernardino County on Tuesday. High temperatures through Thursday
will be around 110 across the Mojave Desert and 115 along the
Colorado River.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Monday...

Monsoon moisture will try to make a return Friday and through the
weekend as the ridge of high pressure weakens across the SW CONUS.
Some deeper moisture will push farther west and north but mid-range
guidance has been inconsistent with how far west the monsoon
moisture gets. This is likely due to difficulty in gauging the
amplitude of a developing trough of low pressure along the pacific
coast. Temperatures will moderate a bit with the influx of moisture
bringing high temperatures back to near climatological normal.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions with breezy afternoons
expected the next few days. Mohave County will see a chance for
showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon this week. A slight
chance for showers exists in the mountains of southern NV and San
Bernardino County on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds will favor typical diurnal trends
through the TAF period. Gusty breezes this afternoon will give way
to south to southwesterly wind below 10kt overnight. Smoke will
become a lesser concern as it shifts west of the Las Vegas Valley.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Gusty afternoons will continue for the next few days,
with expanding thunderstorm chances in Arizona. Smoke will remain an
issue in southeast California, with the biggest issues near the
surface expected in the evening, likely remaining aloft during the
day.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not expected
through Thursday. However, please report any significant weather
using standard operating procedures. Spotter activation may be
necessary this weekend.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gorelow
DISCUSSION...Berc

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http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter



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