Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 211708
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
908 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AREAWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

I WENT AHEAD AND MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH
THAT ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD THIS EVENT BEING DONE AND OVER FOR OUR
AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS DID REPORT RAINFALL THIS MORNING IN THE
MORONGO BASIN WITH A TRACE REPORTED AT JOSHUA TREE AND YUCCA VALLEY
AND 0.03 INCH REPORTED AT MORONGO VALLEY. A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST
MOHAVE COUNTY NEAR WIKIEUP MAY STILL SEE A FEW SPRINKLES BASED ON
THE LATEST RADAR, HOWEVER, ALL SIGNS POINT TOWARD A RAPID DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE AREA ON THE
NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. AS A RESULT, I DECREASED POPS
FURTHER, REMOVING THEM FROM ALL BUT A SMALL AREA OF SOUTHEAST MOHAVE
COUNTY FOR THIS MORNING, AND DECREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
SIGNIFICANTLY AWAY FROM MOHAVE COUNTY. I ALSO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED
DEWPOINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS MANY AREAS WERE ALREADY BELOW
FORECAST VALUES FOR THIS PERIOD.

ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEXT JET STREAK MOVING INTO SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORCAL. THIS WILL
BRING BACK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY UNDER
8 KTS FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY AOA 10
KFT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8K FEET ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH
20Z TODAY, OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AN ABSENCE OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING NORTH OF A KIYK-KLAS-KSGU LINE.
WINDS WILL FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 438 AM PDT FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE GREAT BASIN LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INYO...ESMERALDA...NYE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ONE POINT OF CONCERN ARE WINDS
ACROSS THE SIERRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WHILE THE DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE ISN`T
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE... LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
THAT WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY [GUSTS OVER 58 MPH] OR EVEN WARNING
[GUSTS OVER 70 MPH] LEVELS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...PRIMARILY ABOVE
6000 FEET. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION OVER THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE WIND HIGHLIGHTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING A DECENT PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS FAVORED AREAS SUCH
AS CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...TRANSLATING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60`S
FOR THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A FINAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BE DRY FOR LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BUT WILL BRING A CONTINUATION
OF BRISK NORTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY TO THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY SOUTH
OF LAKE MOHAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
FROM GOLDFIELD EAST TO CALIENTE. FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

00Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE STARTING TO FLATTEN/BREAK
DOWN ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BOTH THE GFS/EC MOS GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHS
FOR LAS VEGAS ON WEDNESDAY/THANKSGIVING DAY AROUND 70. AS VALLEY
INVERSIONS STRENGTHEN OVER TIME CHALLENGE WILL BECOME FORECASTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FOR NOW UNDERCUTTING THOSE VALUES BY SEVERAL
DEGREES. A NORTH BREEZE WILL LINGER DOWN THE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THANKSGIVING DAY FOR THOSE LOOKING
TO RECREATE ON THE LAKES.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
$$

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
PREVIOUS...WOLCOTT/PIERCE

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