Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 280309

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
709 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Widespread rain is expected southeast of the I-15
corridor through tonight and some light snow is possible across
Lincoln County. Elsewhere breezy conditions will diminish tonight. A
quiet weather pattern and a gradual warming trend will occur through
the end of the week and into the weekend.

.UPDATE...Just sent a quick update to increase pops a little in
areas where precipitation was falling and, based on radar, would
continue for a while this evening. This mainly affected portions of
Lincoln and Mohave Counties.

202 PM PST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday Morning.

Showers and low clouds have broken out southeast of the I-15
corridor and this activity will continue throughout the night. The
highest precipitation totals are still expected across the southern
half of Mohave County (over 1" possible in some areas). As of 2pm,
snow levels were still above 6500 feet in the Hualapai Mountains and
only some light rain/snow have been noted across northern Lincoln
County. Will leave the Winter Weather Advisories in place for the
moment due to some cooling cloud tops across Lincoln County. A cold
front will push south across the area tonight into Tuesday morning,
bringing drier conditions in its wake.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday afternoon through Monday.

Storm system will be on the way out by Tuesday afternoon, with only
small PoPs lingering in northern Mohave County. Dry northwest flow
builds overhead Wednesday, bringing dry weather with temperatures
getting back to normal around Thursday and above normal thereafter.
The flow buckles to more westerly Friday and then southwesterly
Saturday as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Alaska. Some model
differences come up on Sunday as the first wave moves inland. The
GFS amplifies it a bit more, and thus brings precip chances farther
south at a later time than suggested by the ECMWF. At this time,
kept all PoPs below 15 percent, but may need to reevaluate the
Sierra depending on model run to run trends tomorrow. All in all, a
quiet week and weekend coming up.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty southwest winds will continue into
this evening with CIGS 5-7k feet before improving. A weak cold front
will push south into the area early Tuesday morning with north winds
behind it. Confidence is below average with the timing of the north
winds behind the front. Northwest to northeast winds are expected to
dominate through much of the day at 5-15 kts with occasional gusts
to around 20 kts.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Showers, low CIGS, and areas of reduced visibility are
expected southeast of the I-15 corridor through tonight. Gusty
southwest winds are expected to the north of this precipitation,
decreasing quickly this evening. A cold front will sweep south
across the region this evening and overnight, turning the winds to
the north in its wake. Winds will favor a northerly direction

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotter activation is not expected.
Spotter are encouraged to report any significant weather according
to standard operating procedures.


Short Term/Aviation...Wolcott
Long Term.............Morgan

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