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000
FXUS65 KVEF 242223
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
323 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NEVADA TUESDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...A DRY SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL KICK UP WINDS A BIT EACH AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VARYING AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN BUT
OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA MONDAY NIGHT BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. I WENT WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND KEPT A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND
OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE...INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE...AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED ON A BLEND OF
LATEST GUIDANCE. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE THE DEEPEST OF THE SOLUTIONS
AND IF MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE EC...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED
AREAWIDE AND TEMPERATURES DROPPED FURTHER...WITH HIGH TEMPS LIKELY
ONLY IN THE MID TO HIGH 70S ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY UNDER THAT
GIVEN SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS STILL INLAND AND PW VALUES ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 0.50 AT BEST...SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
LOW. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST...BUT BY THURSDAY
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AREAWIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SLOWLY
BUT SHOULD BE NEAR NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THE REMAINDER FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST SIN THE
HIGH TEENS ON AVERAGE. DIRECTION WILL FAVOR CONFIG# 4 THE MAJORITY
OF THE TIME...AND ANY DEVIATIONS IN DIRECTION OUT OF THAT GENERAL
DIRECTION WILL BE SHORTLIVED...UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AND A DRAINAGE WIND TAKES OVER.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT
STILL APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES LOWERING TO BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT EACH AFTERNOON.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

HARRISON/KENNEDY

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