Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 301611
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
911 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather is expected for most areas on this Memorial
Day holiday with just a few isolated thunderstorms possible across
the the Sierra, Southern Nevada north of Las Vegas, and northern
Mohave county. A drying and warming trend will commence tuesday with
widespread triple digit heat building into the deserts midweek
onward. Friday and Saturday look especially hot, creeping to within
a few degrees of record territory.

&&

.UPDATE...Early morning radar returns over northern Mohave County are
gradually dissipating with time. New cumulus were starting to
develop over a few mountain ranges. Forecast looks good overall, and
made only a minor tweak to PoP and sky grids for the afternoon.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Weak upper low currently spinning over the southern Mojave desert
will continue to provide modest lift across the region which will
result in another afternoon of some isolated thunderstorms across
parts of Southern Nevada, the Sierra, and Northern Mojave county.
High resolution models suggest deformation zone enhancement focusing
an area of activity across Lincoln county southwestward towards the
Spring Mountains and southern Nye County by late in the afternoon.
As such, we can expect a few isolated to scattered high based
showers and thunderstorms in this area later today. Activity looks
as though it will remain north and west of the Las Vegas metro.
Elsewhere, dry and seasonable weather can be expected with light
winds.

Tomorrow a warning trend will commence with temperatures beginning to
climb above normal. Further warning is in store Wednesday with many
desert locations creeping near or into triple digit territory.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday

High pressure strengthens over the region Thursday and Friday with
dry conditions and temperatures warming to the highest levels of the
year so far. High temperatures by Friday will be well over 100
degrees across the Mojave Desert with some areas flirting with
records. The record high Friday for Las Vegas is 107 and we are
currently forecasting 106. After the relatively cool May,
temperatures at these levels could result in health/safety issues
for those who are heat sensitive and those without effective
cooling. Not much change expected for Saturday although we will
start to see an upper trough/low approaching the California coast.
We may start to see an increase in mainly high level cloud cover
which could limit heating slightly but for now don`t count on it.
There could be just enough of a moisture increase and instability
over the Sierra for a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the
afternoon. The models are in decent agreement moving this trough
inland into California Sunday with heights falling across the area.
This combined with increased cloud cover will lead to 2-4 degrees of
cooling and also a little better chance of showers/thunderstorms
over the Sierra.

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds expected today favoring
easterly directions in the afternoon hours. Wind speeds through the
day look to remain at or below 9 knots. Otherwise, mostly sunny
skies expected with few-sct clouds above 10k feet developing in the
late afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Fair weather with light winds are expected for most
areas today. A few high based showers and thunderstorms may develop
this afternoon over the Sierra, Southern Great Basin, and northern
Mohave county but coverage will be only scattered to isolated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Update...Morgan
Short Term/Aviation...Outler
Long Term...Harrison

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