Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 230910
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
210 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COMBINATION OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND
SUNDAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MEMORIAL DAY. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND RETURN TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL
LEVELS BY TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO...EVER SO SLOWLY...
MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY. A SECOND FEATURE IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE OREGON COAST IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY AND INTERACT WITH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW OVER UTAH. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE NORTHERN ZONES INCLUDING THE SIERRA AND SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN WITH A DECENT SHOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE MOVES TO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY
MORNING WHILE THE LOW OVER UTAH BROADENS AND MOVES AWAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A REDUCED CHANCE AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW CARVES OUT A PLACE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MONDAY BUT DOESN`T MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH. THEREFORE, EVEN LESS
SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AND ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOMEWHAT OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH A WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A
STAGNANT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINLY YIELD AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO LINGER MOISTURE AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN
ZONES...THUS MAKING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM A
POSSIBILITY...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON-
WEDNESDAY.

OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT IN QUICKLY
BUILDING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT BASING AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...YIELDING BENIGN WEATHER AND
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE MAY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 80S IN MOST GREAT BASIN
ZONES...MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST DESERT LOCALES...WITH 100S
POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE
BEATTY...MORMON MESA AND PEACH SPRINGS CORRIDORS LATER TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL FEATURE STRONG
UPDRAFTS AND CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY  WITH 10-
20KTS AND GUSTY ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER


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