Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 012148
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 PM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER SUNSET...THEN A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. FEWER
STORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...THEN ANY STORMS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES. THE DRIER WEATHER
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PROPAGATED
NORTH NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH NYE COUNTY BEING THE CENTER OF THE
ACTION AS OF 230 PM. STORMS WILL QUIET DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS HEATING
IS LOST...BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT DIE OFF COMPLETELY AS MESOLOW/MCV
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO
AGREE ON DESCENDING MOTION BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES TO AREAS NORTH OF LAS VEGAS ON SUNDAY. BROADER
SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOWER
HUMIDITY AND PUTTING AN END TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAIN
FALLS/FELL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL COME UP QUITE
A BIT IN AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS WHERE IT RAINED TODAY BUT
SHOULD BE DRY TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE SIERRA...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM EXISTS FOR BISHOP AS WELL. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CWA
BOTH DAYS. THE SAME GOES FOR THURSDAY EXCEPT THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WEAK RETURN OF MOISTURE TO MOHAVE COUNTY SO
LEFT AN INHERITED LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT BETTER FOR PARTS
OF THE EASTERN CWA...IN PARTICULAR MOHAVE COUNTY...FOR SOME STORM
ACTION ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE LATEST MODELS TAKE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME EAST OF MOHAVE COUNTY WITH ONLY THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH
FORECAST ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY ITSELF. WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA INTERACTS WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS BUT
COULD COOL OFF LATER IN THE WEEK IF MOISTURE INCREASES.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE LIKELY ENDED AT
THE TERMINAL...AND IF ANY MORE RAIN FALLS IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE ERRATIC THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REALLY MESSED UP THE NORMAL WIND PATTERNS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST OVER
NYE...ESMERALDA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF LAS VEGAS ON SUNDAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE
EXPECTED THAN WHAT HAPPENED TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&

$$

MORGAN/SALMEN

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